Political activist and human rights advocate
Iran’s censure at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meeting this week underscored the ongoing tensions surrounding the country's nuclear program.
The IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution urging Iran to increase its cooperation with the agency and reverse actions that have hindered inspectors, despite concerns that Tehran might respond with further atomic escalation. This resolution, drafted by the European troika, Britain, France and Germany known as E3, and reluctantly supported by the US, passed with 20 votes in favor, two against (Russia and China), and 12 abstentions.
In his remarks in May, IAEA head Rafael Grossi had raised alarms over Iran's threats to develop nuclear weapons while expressing hope for serious dialogue. This juxtaposition highlights a critical issue: Iran has a history of using negotiations as a strategic tool to advance its nuclear capabilities, extract concessions, and avoid punitive measures, all while continuing its covert operations and support for militant groups.
Over the past 30 years, Iran's negotiation strategy has been marked by deception and delay. Every diplomatic engagement with the West has been leveraged to buy time, stop damning UN resolutions for human rights violations, enhance its nuclear technology, and gain economic and political concessions without genuinely abandoning its nuclear ambitions.
In the early 2000s, revelations about undeclared nuclear facilities in Natanz and Arak triggered international concern and led to negotiations. However, Iran's responses were characterized by stalling tactics. While Tehran engaged in talks (in 2000s and 2010s) and agreed to suspend uranium enrichment temporarily, it simultaneously continued covert activities and expanded its nuclear infrastructure. These negotiations provided Iran with the breathing room needed to develop its capabilities further while presenting a facade of cooperation.
Seyed Hossein Mousavian, a former Iranian nuclear negotiator, provides an illustrative example of this tactic in a 2005 interview with Iran's National TV. Mousavian explained that in 2003, Iran faced a 50-day ultimatum to suspend its enrichment activities. Instead of complying, Iran entered into negotiations with the IAEA and Europe, which extended the deadline and bought Iran two years to complete its projects in Esfahan and Natanz. During this period, Iran advanced its nuclear capabilities, gained permission to join the World Trade Organization (WTO), and secured international guarantees for its security, national sovereignty, non-intervention in its internal affairs, and protection against invasion. (Minute 15:37 to End)
Another example of this strategy has been particularly evident in the context of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and other diplomatic efforts. The JCPOA, signed in 2015, was hailed as a landmark achievement aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear program. However, even during these negotiations, Iran's intentions were suspect. The deal provided Iran with significant economic relief and lifting of sanctions, yet evidence suggests that Iran continued to advance its nuclear research and missile programs clandestinely.
In 2018, stolen Iranian nuclear documents seized by Israeli intelligence demonstrated that Iran's nuclear program was more extensive than previously known, with plans to build up to five nuclear weapons. These revelations highlighted Iran's strategy of deception and its efforts to advance its nuclear capabilities under the guise of peaceful purposes. These documents prove that even before President Trump exited the JCPOA, Iran was dishonest about its nuclear activities. Also, it continued developing its nuclear capabilities, building missiles, and arming militant groups in the Middle East, some listed by other countries as terrorist organizations.
The repercussions of these activities were starkly evident in the October 7 attack on Israel, the Houthi disruptions of vessels in the Red Sea, and the Hezbollah attacks on Israel from Lebanon. The international community's response has been mixed, with European countries often seeking to salvage the deal through concessions, inadvertently reinforcing Iran's strategy of using negotiations to gain time and advantages.
Notably, Iran's nuclear negotiators, such as Mousavian and Javad Zarif, were trained by Ali Akbar Velayati, who has regularly expressed a deep-seated animosity toward the West and its liberal values and has been one of the main figures in Iran's foreign policy for the past four decades.
Many of these negotiators lived and studied in the West, gaining a profound understanding of Western political dynamics and strategies. Iran's negotiators are well-versed in the concept of carrot and stick, frequently employing it against Western countries: threatening to enrich uranium and develop nuclear weapons while simultaneously calling for negotiations, seeking sanctions relief, and demanding a more significant influence in the Middle East. This approach leverages both intimidation and diplomacy to advance Iran's geopolitical goals, increasing its bargaining power.
This malevolence is evident in the recommendations of Saeed Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator, who advocated for Iran to abandon efforts to revive the JCPOA. He suggested that Iran should begin enriching uranium to 90 percent purity and then engage in direct negotiations with the United States to obtain necessary concessions.
Mousavian echoed this sentiment, stating that when the pressure is too high and the consequences too severe, Iran should move directly toward developing a nuclear bomb. They hold a powerful card, knowing that Europeans are opposed to war between the US and Iran and that the US is unlikely to launch a costly attack on Iran. Thus, Iran uses its proxies to create mayhem in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Israel, and Lebanon, supplies missiles and drones to Russia for use against Ukraine, plans terror attacks against Iranians in the diaspora, and simultaneously demands negotiations.
A critical understanding of Iran's foreign policy reveals that, regardless of who holds the positions of president, foreign minister, or negotiator, the ultimate authority lies with the Supreme Leader, as outlined in the IRI constitution. This concentration of power means that meaningful concessions are only made under significant external pressure when the regime finds itself with no viable alternatives. This dynamic underscores the international community's need to maintain a firm stance, applying consistent pressure to elicit genuine cooperation from the Supreme Leader, since all past negotiations only succeeded when the pressure was too high and the Supreme Leader feared losing power.
Iran’s negotiation history clearly shows a strategy not driven by a genuine desire for peace or cooperation. Instead, it is a calculated effort to advance its nuclear ambitions, secure concessions, and avoid punitive measures. The international community must recognize this pattern of bad faith and respond with increased vigilance and accountability.
Western nations and international bodies should enforce stringent verification measures, maintain robust sanctions, and support regional allies threatened by Iran's destabilizing actions. A firm and united approach is essential to prevent Iran from exploiting diplomacy to further its rogue policies and nuclear ambitions. By understanding and addressing Iran’s deceptive tactics, the global community can better safeguard peace and stability.
Opinions expressed by the author are not necessarily the views of Iran International
But what is the game and the craze all about? Why is it captivating the masses, and what is fueling the opposition against it?
What is Hamster Kombat?
Hamster Kombat, a swiftly expanding "play-to-earn" mobile game accessible through Telegram, debuted officially on March 25th. Within a mere 72 days, it had amassed over 116 million users.
This game lets players oversee a virtual cryptocurrency exchange, earning in-game coins that can later be converted into tokens.
The fundamental gameplay revolves around players selecting a cryptocurrency exchange they wish to manage and tapping on the central Hamster icon on the screen to accumulate profits in the form of in-game coins.
As players accrue more coins in the exchange's balance, its level increases, facilitating faster coin earnings.
What is the allure?
The users' hope is that the game will be listed on an exchange. Cryptocurrency listing, also known as crypto coin listing, entails introducing a newly launched cryptocurrency to an exchange platform, thereby making it publicly accessible for trading.
The game's resemblance Notcoin, a popular game in which some players achieved monetary gains, has also contributed to its appeal.
Moreover, it is essential not to overlook the simplicity of the game and the popularity of Telegram in Iran as the platform itself.
So, what could go wrong?
The game may lead to identity and data breaches, as experts have told Iran International.
“Since this game is NFT [non-fungible tokens], the ecosystem and platforms surrounding their use can directly lead to user tracking and data collection in different ways,” Sahar Tahvili, an AI researcher and the co-author of “Artificial Intelligence Methods for Optimization of the Software Testing Process” told Iran International.
"NFT" stands for a digital token of ownership usually purchased or sold using a cryptocurrency.
“This type of data is usually used for online marketing; however, it can also be used for identity fraud, phishing, social engineering, and other malicious purposes.
Aside from this, they also have this system where if you invite a friend, they will reward you, from which they can create a network of people, and discern their relationships and behavior patterns,” the expert told Iran International.
“Since people usually share their true identities and details when money is involved, their genuine digital identity could be accessible,” she added.
Telegram, founded by Pavel and Nikolai Durov, initially gained popularity for its stance against the Kremlin. But there are doubts concerning where the servers are based and possible threats as outlined by Forbes.
"Since its early days, Telegram has been infamous for shielding illicit content from authorities, playing the anti-establishment role . This type of separation can directly impact data security, performance, and compliance with different countries' regulations, depending on where the hosting servers are located and how they are managed. In this case, the actual game files and user data will be stored on RU-CENTER’s infrastructure in Russia," Tahvili said.
"On the other hand, the main servers of Telegram are also outside the European Union, which has raised concerns about compliance with the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). Considering the large number of end users on both Telegram messenger and the Hamster game, Telegram needs powerful servers that can handle and process this large amount of data. Therefore such huge servers need to be located in sufficiently cold climates (such as Siberia) where the data centers can use the outside air for cooling," the expert told Iran International.
Why is the Islamic Republic warning against the game?
"Storing such a large amount of personal data in a database outside of Iran might raise some concerns for the Iranian government. In fact, other countries could potentially access the personal data of Iranian citizens, which could be utilized for social engineering and phishing purposes," Tahvili told Iran International.
The game generally raises significant issues, such as data security and the harvesting of user data. However, the primary concern for Iranian authorities appears to be the high level of public engagement in Tahvili's opinion.
The Islamic Republic of Iran has restricted access to various messaging apps, replacing Telegram with local alternatives, the expert explained. However, domestic messengers have struggled to rival international messaging apps, largely due to their lack of appealing features and fears among citizens about potential surveillance.
"A filtered version of Telegram has now garnered significant attention in Iran, and the provided web-based game Hamster has attracted a large number of end users. Such online engagement with external applications, gathering a lot of attention, and having several million end users raises concerns for the authorities in Iran regarding applications that might be used to circumvent censorship and share news," the researcher said.
Why are citizens defying authorities' stance?
Individuals' motivations for exposing their data and identity may stem from a lack of trust in the ruling establishment, particularly in economic distress when the perceived risk seems minimal. Millions of Iranians have increasingly become impoverished since 2018 when the United States imposed sanctions. They see the slightest chance of earning money as a blessing.
Despite governmental warnings, the economic incentives offered by the game often outweigh cautionary advice.
This vulnerability is further exacerbated among those accustomed to living under a dictatorship, who may lack awareness of their privacy rights, rendering them susceptible targets for such games.
There is a pervasive lack of trust to the extent that if authorities issue warnings against a particular activity, the immediate assumption is that they seek exclusive control over it.
Conversely, if authorities support the activity, there remains suspicion that they have ulterior motives involving illicit activities.
What is the International stance?
Ukraine has emerged as a prominent state responding to Hamster Kombat.
The Ukrainian government website, specifically the Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security (Spravdi), has warned citizens against playing the game.
The concern stems from its Russian domain registration under the RU-CENTER Group.
“Given the legal obligations of Russian companies to store user data on servers and disclose it to law enforcement agencies upon request, this situation poses a potential threat to Ukrainians,” according to Spravdi's statement, published in May. “Personal data could be vulnerable to exploitation for undisclosed purposes.”
What is the Iranian official and media stance?
Ironically, the clerical government in Iran seems to agree with Ukraine. As the game's popularity grew in Iran, the media also took note, and soon, authorities, from police to hardliner clerics, began to issue warnings.
On Friday, the spokesman for Iran's National Center for Cyberspace issued a warning about Hamster Kombat, stating that money-earning games have “become an ideal platform for hackers and thieves.”
“Players of these games are advised to take extra care in protecting their information and accounts,” Hossein Deliriyan wrote on X.
Iran's Cyberpolice stated on Saturday that it is evaluating threats and damages and will announce the results soon.
Hamshahri Online, the website of the Tehran Municipal Newspaper, published opinions from senior clerics, including Ayatollah Nasser Makarem Shirazi, a hardliner, holding one of the highest ranks in Iran's Shiite clerical hierarchy, and Mohammad Mohammadi Golpayegani, Chief of Staff to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, regarding the purchase and sale of digital currencies.
Almost all of these clerics, except for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei himself, explicitly forbid cryptocurrency trading and related activities, citing that "cryptocurrencies do not have a clear and precise source, and they can endanger the country's economy as well as circumvent sovereignty and launder money, they are therefore forbidden or unlawful.”
Khamenei has only stated that cryptocurrency trading should be in "compliance with the official laws of the country in this matter.”
Is there an official set of rules?
The legal status of cryptocurrency in Iran remains a grey area. While there were initial discussions in parliament about a potential ban, it was later clarified that this would only apply to state institutions, leaving the status of cryptocurrency for the general public uncertain.
The judiciary's website, Mizan, states that “in general, it is not legal to trade cryptocurrencies in Iran, but there is no law explicitly stating that trading cryptocurrencies in Iran is illegal or considered a crime.”
However, cryptocurrency mining, which involves verifying transactions and generating new tokens, requires “obtaining permission from the government.”
Nevertheless, in 2022, the state's intelligence ministry reported blocking over 9,000 accounts of 454 individuals used for illegal or undeclared currency exchanges. Based on the exchange rate during that period, the relevant trades amounted to 600 trillion rials, or approximately $2 billion.
Does the Islamic Republic employ a double standard in its approach to cryptocurrency?
Experts assert that the Iranian government has a self-inflicted “muddled relationship with crypto-currencies,” which facilitates evading sanctions by the government while also enabling illicit activities.
According to reports in Iranian media, significant cryptocurrency mining operations are conducted by influential or well-connected networks, along with certain Chinese companies leveraging inexpensive and subsidized electricity in mining facilities established within Iran. Such activities could only have been authorized by Iran's intelligence services and the Revolutionary Guard.
In April, the US Treasury Department urged Congress to pass legislation empowering the department to intervene in cryptocurrency-based terrorist financing and sanctions evasion methods. During a Senate hearing session, it was disclosed that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) had utilized cryptocurrency for funding certain entities.
In 2022, it was revealed that cryptocurrency exchange giant Binance processed Iranian transactions totaling $8 billion since 2018, despite US sanctions aimed at isolating Iran from the global financial system.
At 55, the anti-American ideologue and self-proclaimed revolutionary is seen by many as a potential replica of Ebrahim Raisi’s government.
The state-monitored Rouydad24 news outlet suggests that while his path to victory is complex, certain elements within Iran's political landscape could favor his potential to win the presidency.
Jalili, an ultraconservative close ally of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, belongs to the Principalist faction in Iranian politics, which emphasizes the principles of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Having run as a presidential candidate in the past, one of Jalili's official campaign slogans was “Great Jihad for Iran’s Leap Forward.”
He has held significant diplomatic and security roles within the Iranian government, serving as the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council from 2007 to 2013 and currently as a member of the Expediency Discernment Council.
Khamenei, who many experts assert virtually selected Raisi in 2021 despite the facade of elections, has maintained a favorable relationship with Jalili for many years.
Pointing to his inflexibility as Iran’s nuclear negotiator between 2007 and 2013, Rouydad24 notes that Jalili’s resistance to making concessions and his rigid approach resulted in multiple UN Security Council and IAEA Board of Governors resolutions against Iran. These resulted in international economic sanctions that began to unravel the relative stability of Iran's oil-dependent economy.
During his tenure as deputy foreign minister, several European diplomats described Jalili to Reuters as someone who strongly and unwaveringly expressed his views. One diplomat even remarked that Jalili "specialized in monologue" rather than engaging in debate.
His approach often frustrated diplomats, with then-Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs William Burns recounting an instance where Jalili engaged in nearly 40 minutes of philosophical discourse during a meeting, avoiding direct answers and complicating the negotiation process.
Yet, this firm stance on nuclear negotiations has shaped the perception of him as a figure who does not easily bend to Western pressures. It’s likely that certain factions, particularly hardline and conservative groups, may support him for his ideological purity and rigid approach to negotiations.
Rouydad24’s analysis of Jalili suggests that his resistance amid nuclear talks may have been part of a broader strategy by the regime to develop Iran's nuclear capabilities – while buying time.
Be that as it may, Jalili’s diplomatic style led some experts to conclude that he would not be a suitable candidate, if the regime wants to advance the state of its current foreign policy and improve relations with the West.
His main rival for the presidency may be Ali Larijani, a conservative and former parliamentary speaker. Some say the stage is set for a diplomatic dichotomy reminiscent of the 2013 election, where their contrasting approaches were already evident.
In 2022, according to some accounts, Jalili confronted Larijani over nuclear negotiations during a special meeting of the Expediency Council. Jalili reportedly proposed that Iran withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, a suggestion opposed by Larijani and others.
Rouydad24 analysis points out that in Iran's foreign policy, the true power lies with higher-level authorities who make the final decisions. This could be a reference to the Supreme Leader. The President and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs act as executors of these decisions. Despite this clear hierarchy, different administrations have managed to influence the decision-making process.
It’s unclear whether Jalili, a veteran of the Iran-Iraq war and former member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, would shift his stance on reaching a truce with Western powers.
Known for his strong “nationalistic” views and deep belief in the Islamic Republic’s moral and strategic success against perceived American aggression, Jalili has always taken a hardline approach. His track record suggests that as President, he would continue to emphasize resistance and minimal concessions, casting doubt on any potential move towards diplomatic compromise with the West.
It’s more likely that Khamenei will prefer to maintain the status quo, positioning Jalili as a convenient successor to Raisi.
"Iranians are grappling with unprecedented challenges as their currency faces massive devaluation, ranking among the world's least valuable, despite the nation's abundant natural resources, such as gas and oil," said the top religious leader of Iran’s largely Sunni Baluch population during his Friday prayer sermons in Zahedan, the provincial capital of Sistan-Baluchestan.
The statement comes amid upcoming snap presidential elections, called following the sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19. Mohammad Mokhber has since assumed the role of acting president.
The outspoken cleric emphasized the nation's desire for freedom and women's demand for equal rights, pointing to the failure of both "reformist" and conservative factions to fulfill these aspirations.
“Despite their promises, the previous administrations failed to deliver. Reformists also failed to bring about a meritocracy system,” he said. “We talked to the fundamentalists [conservatives] about national and regional problems, but they didn't show any real commitment to solving them.”
In his critique of past administrations, Abdolhamid highlighted their constrained authority, asserting that "affairs are overseen from elsewhere," likely referring to Supreme Leader Khamenei's ultimate control over decisions, and raised concerns regarding the state's transparency and accountability.
“The previous administration [under Hassan Rouhani] pledged to appoint 10 Sunni ambassadors, having received nominations from us for these positions. However, the Foreign Minister said that decision-making powers were not solely within their jurisdiction, and other institutions are involved in the decision-making,” Abdolhamid said.
Khamenei and his supporters have largely hesitated to acknowledge the economic strain on the country.
Pointing to the "weight of responsibilities" inherent in the role of president, the outspoken cleric questioned the candidates, asking if they have considered strategies to address the pressing issues facing the country, issues that have contributed to a rise in suicides.
Abdolhamid's views seem to align with many critics who consider the Iranian presidency to be more of a symbolic post. With significant decisions made at Khamenei's headquarters.
The incoming president, set to be elected by the end of June, faces the challenge of addressing escalating economic woes exacerbated by ongoing oil export and banking restrictions due to international sanctions. These sanctions primarily stem from Iran's advancing nuclear program and financial support for terrorist groups, like Hamas and Hezbollah.