Is Iran entering its Gorbachev moment?
Ashkan Safaei
Iran International
The idea of an “Iranian Gorbachev” has surfaced before in the Islamic Republic, but this time the conditions may be different.
Iran International
The idea of an “Iranian Gorbachev” has surfaced before in the Islamic Republic, but this time the conditions may be different.
At the peak of the Reform Movement in the late 1990s, when Iranian president Mohammad Khatami promoted political openness and civil society, hardliners labeled him Iran’s Gorbachev.
Hardliners like Hossein Shariatmadari and Hassan Abbasi used the title to demonize him, while opposition groups clung to the hope that he might accelerate the regime's collapse—a feat they themselves had been unable to achieve.
In reality, neither Khatami nor his inner circle accepted such a role. They repeatedly stressed that their reforms were intended to strengthen the system, not dismantle it. The structure of power at the time also made a true "Gorbachev moment" nearly impossible.
Now-slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei controlled the pace of reform, restraining both reformists and hardliners and preventing the political system from tipping into crisis.
Iranian society in the late 1990s was also not prepared for a total rupture with the state. A significant portion of the population still believed reform was possible. The generation shaped by the 1979 revolution remained politically active and hopeful.
Three decades later, the situation appears markedly different. A new generation, deeply disillusioned with the system, appears to settle for nothing less than regime change.
Over the past three years the Islamic Republic has endured repeated foreign military strikes. Ali Khamenei, referred to by many officials as the “system,” has been removed from the scene. Mojtaba, his son, lacks the authority that allowed his father to hold competing factions together during moments of crisis.
It is in this environment that an individual—or individuals—may unintentionally become "Iran’s Gorbachev." One possible candidate is Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf.
During the 40-day memorial of Ali Khamenei, Ghalibaf traveled to Islamabad to meet with the Vice President of the country that helped kill the Supreme Leader.
Signs suggest that the remnants of the regime, in a desperate attempt to remain in power, may be prepared to make concessions that strike at the ideological foundations of the Islamic Republic.
US President Donald Trump’s demands—surrendering enriched uranium, permanently ending enrichment, and disarming Hezbollah—strike at core elements of the Islamic Republic’s identity. Accepting them could alienate the ideological base that has long defended the system.
Even without an official agreement, hints of retreat have already triggered anger among loyalist forces. Aggressive reactions from accounts linked to ultrahardline figures, accusing officials of "sedition" and a "coup," suggest tremors within the regime’s core supporters.
When a Jalili-aligned account writes, “If these are the Leader's orders, release a video of him saying so,” it signals how deeply trust in the central authority has eroded.
Another example of frustration within the regime’s ideological base appeared in a tweet warning: “Alas for the public’s rage and disillusionment when they learn what has been agreed upon and what is yet to come.”
During the final years of the USSR, the policies of Glasnost (Openness) and Perestroika (Restructuring) distanced the Soviet system from its founding ideals. When transparency exposed the privileges of party elites, the ideological base lost faith. Many refused to defend the system when it needed them most. The "Evil Empire" collapsed with startling speed.
If those in power in Tehran abandon uranium enrichment and withdraw support from Hezbollah, there is no guarantee that their ideological base will mobilize in their defense—or shoot protesters as they did in January.
Without Ali Khamenei to frame such a retreat as "Heroic Flexibility," Ghalibaf and his allies, in their struggle to preserve the system, could inadvertently become the Gorbachevs of Iran.
Tehran’s unveiling of a towering statue depicting the Roman Emperor Valerian kneeling before pre-Islamic Persian King Shapur I has renewed criticism of the Islamic Republic’s appeal to nationalist sentiment following the June war with Israel.
For over forty years, the theocracy purged ancient Persian history from schoolbooks, replacing it with post-Islamic narratives. But after the 12-day conflict with Israel, officials have turned to the distant pre-Islamic past to rally a divided society.
From murals of ancient kings and soldiers to patriotic songs added to Shi’ite mourning ceremonies performed before Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Tehran now embraces imagery once deemed heretical by its own revolutionary ethos.
'Kneel before Iran' campaign
Tehran’s Revolution (Enghelab) Square was the scene of an unusual spectacle on Friday as officials unveiled a massive bronze statue depicting Roman Emperor Valerian kneeling in submission before Sassanid King Shapur I, commemorating Iran’s victory at the Battle of Edessa (260 AD).
The event was held under the slogan “Kneel before Iran,” part of what authorities describe as a campaign to project “national unity and historical pride” following the June war with Israel.
Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani, a staunch ultraconservative, said on X: “Enmity with Great Iran can only end in kneeling before this historic nation.”
Municipal official Davood Goodarzi said the installation would be accompanied by visual displays depicting “other victories of Iranians over foreign aggressors,” including the defeat of British forces by local commander Rais-Ali Delvari, Mirza Kuchak Khan’s resistance against Russian troops, and Surena’s triumph over Rome at the Battle of Carrhae in 53 BCE.
The goal, Goodarzi said, is “strengthening concepts such as national dignity, social unity, and Iranian identity.”
The statue, he said, would remain temporarily at Revolution Square before being moved to a city gateway “where it will stand as the first emblem of Iran before diplomats and foreign visitors.”
Unveiled women were allowed to attend the unveiling ceremony—an uncommon scene at events organized by Tehran’s ultra-hardline municipality.
The turn to the pre-Islamic past
The sharp reversal also recalls remarks once made by Khamenei. In a 2011 speech, he asserted that “all the great military victories of this nation came after Islam,” dismissing pre-Islamic accounts as “things that are not documented.”
In 1987, he had said that prophets triumphed over kings such as Cyrus and that “nothing remains of these monarchs in history but names remembered with derision.”
Nevertheless, pro-government social media accounts have now gone so far as to circulate posters equating Khamenei himself with Shapur, showing him standing with a staff as Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump kneel before him. The caption reads: “You will kneel before Iran.”
'Hypocrisy'
Pro-government figures have hailed the move as a patriotic success. Conservative political reporter Hossein Saremi posted: “Today’s grand Iranian gathering showed that people and the state share one essence: Iran itself. Nothing can take our homeland away.”
Others, however, called the spectacle “hypocrisy.” Journalist Gholamhossein Pashaei wrote on X: “Every year you close Pasargadae to stop people from celebrating Cyrus Day, yet you unveil Shapur’s statue in Enghelab Square with drums and fireworks during Fatimiyya (mourning period)!”
Dissident commentator Hamid Asafi called the ceremony “a perfect snapshot of the Islamic Republic’s contradictions.”
On Telegram he wrote: “A week ago they closed Cyrus’s tomb out of fear of the crowds, and now they glorify Shapur in the same breath. The Islamic Republic fears living history but poses for selfies with its corpse.”
He added: “They know people no longer respond to rosaries and sermons. That’s why they’ve brought history back to the stage—in a controlled costume. If they can’t erase the past, they’ll try to own it.”
The irony deepened as UNESCO formally recognized Cyrus’s Charter as one of the earliest human-rights documents.
President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on X: “Iran, the cradle of dialogue, justice, and coexistence, can still inspire peace today.”
Users swiftly replied, questioning how such pride could coexist with a government that blocks access to Cyrus’s tomb each year to those wishing to visit it on his birthday.