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INSIGHT

Earthquakes and storm revive Tehran’s fears of 'the big one'

Maryam Sinaiee
Maryam Sinaiee

Iran International

May 15, 2026, 00:40 GMT+1
A general view of Tehran Iran, April 16, 2026.
A general view of Tehran Iran, April 16, 2026.

A series of overnight earthquakes and a powerful dust storm rattled Tehran and nearby cities on Tuesday night, reviving fears of a catastrophic earthquake in a capital still psychologically scarred by recent war.

The seismic activity began with a mild 3.4-magnitude tremor before intensifying into a 4.6-magnitude earthquake later in the night. Several aftershocks continued into early Wednesday morning.

At the same time, a storm swept through Tehran, bringing severe dust, power outages and fallen trees. At least seven people were reportedly injured in the storm, though authorities said the earthquakes themselves caused no casualties or major damage.

Still, the tremors revived a long-standing fear in Tehran: the possibility of a devastating earthquake along the active fault lines beneath eastern Tehran and surrounding towns.

The big one may be overdue

ILNA quoted earthquake expert Fariborz Nateghi Elahi criticizing the lack of serious crisis planning for the major quake scientists have long warned about.

“We know an earthquake will happen,” he said. “Not on this scale, but something much, much larger.”

Eastern Tehran and nearby towns sit atop an active fault stretching at least 200 kilometers and capable of generating earthquakes above magnitude 7. Geologists say the fault typically produces a major earthquake roughly once every century.

Nearly 200 years have passed since the last truly destructive event. In 1830, a massive earthquake estimated at magnitude 7.1 devastated Tehran, then a relatively young capital.

Scientists now warn that pressure accumulated underground since then has left the fault in a critical state, primed for a major release of energy.

In December 2017, a 3.5-magnitude tremor caused widespread panic, sending residents into the streets and forcing many families to sleep in their cars overnight. This time, despite the stronger quake, the public reaction appeared noticeably more subdued.

Crisis fatigue

Some residents still spent the night in parks, streets or inside their vehicles, but many on social media said the trauma of recent air and missile attacks during two wars had numbed their reactions.

One psychologist writing on X suggested the muted response could be explained by “crisis fatigue.”

A social media user wrote: “The 2017 earthquake made Tehran residents sleep in their cars until morning. Streets were completely gridlocked, and gas stations were packed. Its magnitude? 3.5. Now our reaction is: ‘Oh, it’s just an earthquake,’ and we pull the blanket over our heads and go back to sleep. I think only a nuclear bomb could still move people in this country.”

Another user described how the storm initially triggered fears of renewed military attacks: “The storm started, windows were shaking, and I thought: ‘Is it fighter jets?’”

She said she then checked the news and realized it was just a storm, which briefly calmed her. “Then the earthquake came, and I thought: well, that’s nothing. Compared to war, everything feels like a joke.”

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Skyrocketing rents push Iranians back to parents’ homes, shared housing

May 14, 2026, 13:28 GMT+1

More Iranians are moving back in with family or taking on roommates after losing jobs and struggling to keep up with rising rents in major cities, according to messages sent to Iran International.

“I worked at a petrochemical company and got fired. Since we can no longer afford rent, my wife, two children and I have moved back into my parents’ house,” one citizen told Iran International.

Another, a woman supporting her household alone, said she was forced to share her home after losing her job at a restaurant.

“I am the head of my household and after losing my job at a restaurant, I had no choice but to get a roommate to reduce rent and living costs while raising my teenage child,” she told Iran International.

Shargh newspaper reported on Thursday that more tenants in Tehran and other large cities are turning to shared housing, returning to parents’ homes or leaving the capital altogether as rent and living costs climb.

The newspaper cited residents who said they were searching for roommates for the first time after years of living independently, while others described plans to move back with family members or relocate to smaller cities after losing income.

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A 45-year-old woman who had lived alone in central Tehran for two decades told Shargh she was considering taking in roommates because she could no longer afford rent on her own.

“More than two decades passed living alone and now I have to change my standards,” she told the newspaper. “Paying 400 million rials ($220) in rent in Tehran’s Bahar neighborhood is impossible for me.”

Another resident said he and his brother were looking for a third housemate after his workplace suspended operations and stopped paying salaries.

File photo: Iranians move household belongings as soaring rents and economic pressure force many families to move back in with parents or relatives.
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File photo: Iranians move household belongings as soaring rents and economic pressure force many families to move back in with parents or relatives.

Reverse migration from Tehran

Shargh said some residents were preparing to leave Tehran entirely after years in the capital, describing what it called a wave of reverse migration driven by economic hardship and shrinking work opportunities.

One editor told the newspaper she was returning to her hometown Kashan in her mid-40s after more than two decades in Tehran because rising costs and declining work in publishing left her unable to continue living independently.

“I thought I would return to Kashan after retirement, not in middle age because I can no longer survive economically in Tehran,” she told Shargh.

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The report also pointed to signs of tighter housing supply, citing online property listings and real estate agents who said available rental units had declined while demand increased, particularly after displacement linked to the conflict with Israel.

Erosion of independence

Sociologist Abdolvahab Shahlibar told Shargh that shared housing in Iran is increasingly a financial necessity rather than a lifestyle choice.

“Efforts to improve quality of life have in many cases been replaced by efforts to preserve basic survival,” Shahlibar told the newspaper, warning that being forced to return to parents’ homes or abandon independent living could reshape social relationships and personal identity.

Iran analysts pessimistic on US talks despite China’s role

May 14, 2026, 03:35 GMT+1
•
Behrouz Turani

Iranian former diplomats and political analysts struck a pessimistic tone in Wednesday’s media ahead of Donald Trump’s talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, warning of renewed escalation and portraying China as central to any Iran-US settlement.

Most outlets framed negotiations as deadlocked. Reform-leaning Fararu warned of “the increasing possibility of yet another escalation.”

In an article titled “Negotiating About Negotiating” published by Sharq, former diplomat Kourosh Ahmadi examined the growing impasse after Trump reportedly rejected Iran’s latest 14-point proposal as “completely unacceptable.”

According to Tasnim and IRIB, Tehran’s proposal included demands for the withdrawal of US forces from Iran’s periphery, war reparations, full sanctions relief and a new legal framework for the Strait of Hormuz.

Ahmadi argued that the recent exchange of written messages marked a regression from even the already limited framework of indirect negotiations.

“This is no longer substantive diplomacy,” he wrote, describing the process instead as “negotiating about the method of negotiation.”

He argued that Trump remains focused on Iran’s 60 percent uranium enrichment while Tehran continues prioritizing sovereignty and economic compensation, leaving little common ground.

Rather than full-scale war, Ahmadi predicted prolonged “low-intensity military encounters,” tighter naval blockades and sustained economic pressure aimed at keeping Iran unstable.

In Etemad, foreign policy analyst Morteza Makki argued that after 40 days of military confrontation both Tehran and Washington are now effectively “forced” to seek some form of agreement.

Makki said the conflict had reshaped regional dynamics, arguing that despite heavy costs Iran had preserved key strategic objectives and demonstrated deterrence in the Persian Gulf, while Washington had failed to secure broader goals despite military escalation and operations such as Operation Freedom.

“The White House is now managing the costs of war rather than leading an offensive,” he said.

Makki pointed to domestic pressures in the United States, fears of rising energy prices and reluctance among Arab allies such as Saudi Arabia to enter a broader conflict.

He concluded that both the nuclear issue and the Strait of Hormuz remain negotiable if political will exists, but argued that China is now the only power capable of offering guarantees Tehran would trust.

“It seems China is the only country that can play an effective role in creating space for dialogue and guaranteeing a stable agreement between Iran and the U.S.,” he said.

Expanding on China’s role, Iran’s former ambassador to Beijing Hamid Aboutalebi argued in a Fararu commentary that the confrontation has evolved beyond a regional crisis into a test of China’s willingness to defend partners against US pressure.

He wrote that the conflict was no longer simply about sanctions or Iran’s nuclear program, but about whether Beijing is prepared to challenge a US-centered global order.

According to Aboutalebi, if China succeeds in building alternative financial and energy networks while defending partners such as Iran, Tehran could evolve from an isolated sanctioned state into a key player in an emerging multipolar order.

But if Beijing retreats under pressure, he warned, it would expose the limits of Chinese power despite its global ambitions.

He argued that tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have elevated the conflict into a broader geopolitical contest, increasingly forcing China to balance its ambitions as a global power against its dependence on stability and open trade routes.

Tehran quake stirs dark humor, hopes for renewed strikes

May 13, 2026, 21:10 GMT+1

A series of tremors in and around Tehran late Tuesday stirred shock, dark humor and political despair among residents, with some initially mistaking them for renewed US-Israeli strikes.

On Tuesday night, Iran’s Seismological Center said a 4.6-magnitude quake struck near Pardis, east of Tehran, at a depth of 10 kilometers, with no immediate reports of casualties or major damage. A series of nine smaller earthquakes also struck the area overnight.

“This is what life is like for us inside Iran: an earthquake happens and my mother says, ‘I wish it were bombing instead.’ The result of 47 years of Islamic rule,” one message sent to Iran International said.

The reactions came against the backdrop of a fragile ceasefire after more than two months of war that began on February 28 with a US-Israeli bombing campaign on Iran.

Donald Trump said Monday that the ceasefire with Iran was “on life support” after rejecting Tehran’s response to a US proposal aimed at ending the war.

The ceasefire has been in place since April 7, but Trump has repeatedly threatened to end it if Iran failed to reach an agreement with Washington.

One message captured the bitter humor with which some residents viewed the quake amid fears of renewed conflict, suggesting divine intervention had stepped in where Trump had not.

“Trump dragged this out so much that God stepped in,” the message said.

Several residents said they initially mistook the shaking for renewed strikes.

“The earthquake at 11:40 p.m. on Tuesday in Tehran was really terrifying. For a few seconds, we thought the attacks had started again,” one Tehran resident said.

Another resident in eastern Tehran’s Tehranpars district said the tremor felt like a nearby missile strike.

“We are in eastern Tehran, in Tehranpars. Tuesday night’s earthquake shook and rattled our house so badly that we thought a missile had hit next to our home,” the resident said.

Several messages described the tremors as reviving memories of the recent war, when residents had become used to distinguishing between air defense fire, missiles, drones and explosions.

“Around 9 p.m. on Tuesday, an earthquake was felt in Tehran, but the one that came at 11:45 p.m. was felt very strongly. The whole house shook and the chandeliers rattled. It felt like the experience we had during those 40 days of war,” one message said.

Another resident said the earthquake and the sound of a storm afterward produced conflicting emotions.

“When the earthquake happened and then the sound of the storm afterward, we thought we were under attack again. We felt fear and relief at the same time,” the resident said.

In Pardis, east of Tehran, residents reported repeated tremors through the night.

“In Pardis, from 8 p.m. until 1 a.m., there were three relatively strong earthquakes. People rushed into the streets in fear and gas stations became crowded,” one message said.

One resident said a sudden dust storm added to the confusion.

“We were sitting at home, the weather was nice, and suddenly the air became extremely dusty and the sky filled with dirt and dust. Even though the war experience has taught us to distinguish between air defense fire, missiles and drones — or judge from the sound and shaking how close an explosion is — when the earthquake happened, for a few seconds we could not tell whether it was an attack or something else,” the resident said.

Other messages reflected mistrust and speculation about whether the tremors were linked to underground missile activity or even a possible nuclear test near Parchin.

“Could the earthquake have been caused by the criminals’ underground missile activities? Especially considering Tehran naturally sits on a fault line and their underground activities were exposed during the war,” one person said.

Another message said there was speculation online that the quake’s epicenter near Parchin meant Iran may have carried out a nuclear test rather than experienced a natural earthquake.

One message accused state television of failing to quickly cover the earthquake because authorities feared people would pour into the streets.

“State TV was not covering the earthquake because they were afraid people would pour into the streets. Human lives are so worthless to them as long as they can stay in power a little longer,” the message said.

Tehran and Beijing close ranks as Trump heads to China

May 13, 2026, 18:20 GMT+1
•
Maryam Sinaiee

Ahead of Donald Trump’s arrival in Beijing, Iranian officials rejected suggestions that US pressure could weaken Iran-China ties amid growing speculation over a possible Chinese mediation role in the Iran conflict.

Iranian ambassador to China Abdolreza Rahmani-Fazli wrote Monday on X that relations between Tehran and Beijing “are stronger than any US effort aimed at changing China’s position toward Iran through pressure.”

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun reinforced that message Monday, saying Beijing’s position remained “clear and consistent” and that the priority should be preventing renewed war and further escalation.

Crucially, Beijing also signaled opposition to any US-led blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, saying such actions were “not in the common interests of the international community.”

Observers viewed last week’s meeting in Beijing between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi as an effort to coordinate positions ahead of the expected Trump-Xi talks.

During the meeting, Wang said China was prepared to play a “greater role” in regional peace efforts and encouraged dialogue between Iran and Persian Gulf Arab states.

Trump pressure Xi over Iran

Western media reports indicate Trump plans to press Xi over China’s economic and strategic ties with Iran, particularly oil purchases and alleged military assistance.

While Trump acknowledged he would raise the issue, he also said before departing for Beijing that he did not believe Xi’s cooperation was strictly necessary to manage the crisis.

Tensions between Washington and Beijing over Iran have intensified in recent weeks following the seizure of a Tehran-linked cargo vessel near the Strait of Hormuz.

In a CNBC interview, Trump criticized what he described as China’s “unexpected support for Iran,” saying he had anticipated greater understanding from Beijing.

Former US ambassador Nikki Haley also alleged on X that the seized vessel was carrying chemicals intended for Iran’s missile program, presenting the case as evidence of growing Chinese support for Tehran.

China’s expanding regional role

At a May 8 press conference in Beijing, Rahmani-Fazli said Tehran and Beijing had agreed to advance Xi’s four-point regional security initiative.

The proposal emphasizes peaceful coexistence, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity and adherence to international law as foundations for stability in the Persian Gulf and the broader Middle East.

Iranian outlet Khabar Online described the initiative as part of Beijing’s broader effort to position itself as a major diplomatic mediator in the region while distancing itself from what it called US unilateralism.

The outlet argued that the approach could strengthen Iran’s negotiating position and increase pressure on Washington to accept at least some Iranian demands.

Rahmani-Fazli said Monday that any future agreement with Washington “must inevitably include guarantees from major powers” and ultimately be raised at the UN Security Council.

Could China become a mediator?

So far, China has largely pursued a cautious approach to the confrontation between Iran and the United States, avoiding direct involvement while calling for de-escalation.

Still, some Iranian analysts believe Beijing may now be willing to take on a more active diplomatic role.

Former Iranian ambassador to China Mohammad Keshavarzzadeh told Shargh newspaper that Chinese officials appeared interested in facilitating negotiations and reducing tensions.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei also suggested Beijing could use Trump’s visit to warn against what Tehran describes as unlawful US pressure and its consequences for regional and global stability.

At the same time, some Iranian analysts believe China may be uneasy with Tehran’s threats to restrict access through the Strait of Hormuz.

Former Iranian diplomat Kourosh Ahmadi told Nour News that Beijing’s primary concern remains preserving open trade routes essential to its export-driven economy.

According to Ahmadi, this could push China to place greater emphasis on protecting the legal status of international waterways and opposing any disruption in Hormuz that might set precedents elsewhere.

Disputes over Chinese support for Iran

Last month, Trump called on Xi not to send weapons to Tehran and claimed China had offered assurances on the matter.

In recent days, the US State Department sanctioned three Chinese satellite companies accused of assisting Iranian military operations by providing imagery linked to Iranian military activity. Beijing rejected the allegations.

The US Treasury Department also sanctioned several companies in mainland China and Hong Kong accused of helping supply weapons-related materials to Iran.

Beijing does not recognize US sanctions on Iranian oil exports and has instructed domestic companies not to comply with American restrictions targeting so-called “teapot” refineries purchasing Iranian crude.

The moves underscore growing US efforts to pressure Beijing over its ties with Tehran ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting.

Iran looks to China for guarantees in future US deal

May 13, 2026, 16:46 GMT+1
•
Behrouz Turani

Iran is increasingly looking to China not just as an economic partner, but as the only major power capable of offering credible guarantees in both the Persian Gulf and any future agreement between Tehran and Washington.

On May 10, Iran’s ambassador to China, Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, said Beijing could serve as the guarantor of a future deal between Iran and major world powers. He added that any agreement should ultimately be endorsed by the UN Security Council, echoing Tehran’s long-standing preference for multilateral guarantees over bilateral commitments.

A day later, Rahmani Fazli wrote on X that Iran was prepared to support President Xi Jinping’s four-point proposal for “sustainable security” in the Persian Gulf, adding that the position had already been affirmed during recent talks between the two countries’ foreign ministers.

China’s approach to emphasizes mutual guarantees among regional states, with Beijing presenting itself as a mediator and economic stabilizer rather than a military enforcer.

In mid-April, Xi introduced a four-point proposal aimed at moving the region away from the brink of wider war toward what Chinese officials described as a “comprehensive and sustainable security architecture.”

The proposal called for peaceful coexistence among regional powers, respect for sovereignty, adherence to international law and the UN Charter, and balancing security with economic development and reconstruction.

Chinese diplomacy surrounding the Iran crisis has increasingly been framed in Tehran as an alternative to Washington’s military-first approach.

Iranian media and officials have portrayed Beijing as a power capable of maintaining relations with all sides while avoiding direct military involvement.

Tehran and Beijing have both linked these initiatives to their expanding strategic partnership, which Iranian officials increasingly describe as a counterweight to US influence in the region.

Donald Trump’s upcoming visit to China has added new significance to that relationship as ceasefire tensions persist and negotiations remain stalled.

Hossein Mousavian, Iran’s former ambassador to Germany, recently reiterated that security guarantees remain one of Tehran’s central demands in any negotiations with Washington.

Iranian commentators argue that while Tehran does not trust the Trump administration to uphold a purely bilateral agreement, Chinese involvement could provide a framework both sides may find harder to abandon.

Still, major obstacles remain.

Trump has repeatedly rejected any agreement resembling the 2015 nuclear deal, arguing that it failed to protect US interests. Iran, meanwhile, continues to push for a broader truce framework without first resolving disputes over its nuclear program, a position unlikely to gain traction in Washington.

Tensions escalated further on May 12, when Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Iran was prepared for war if Trump rejected Tehran’s terms. The same day, Trump said military options remained on the table.

Against that backdrop, Beijing has increasingly signaled that its immediate priority is preventing further disruption in the Persian Gulf and ensuring safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy markets.

For Tehran, China’s growing diplomatic role offers more than mediation. It represents the possibility of a powerful external guarantor at a time when trust between Iran and the United States appears close to collapse.