Iran’s Supreme Leader approved the development of compact nuclear warheads for ballistic missiles in October, reversing years of restraint after Iran’s June war with Israel, the Italian Institute for International Political Studies said in a report on Wednesday.
“Our sources in Tehran now tell us that, in October, Khamenei decided to give the green light to the development of compact warheads for ballistic missiles,” the report said.
The report said Khamenei had previously blocked any move to enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels or to develop deliverable nuclear warheads, despite pressure from within Iran’s security establishment, particularly the Revolutionary Guards.
It said the June conflict with Israel marked a turning point, exposing weaknesses in Iran’s air defenses and allied forces, while highlighting the limits of its missile arsenal in a prolonged conflict.
“The only true deterrent that could save the Iranian regime in the event of a conflict against Israel and its US allies would be nuclear weapons,” the report said.
Enrichment still capped, for now
“At the same time, however, Khamenei would still not have authorised uranium enrichment beyond 60%,” the report said, adding that rumors persist of an undisclosed enrichment effort at a covert site not declared to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
It said Iran appears to be prioritizing warhead design over enrichment to reduce the risk of exposure to military strikes.
The report said that even if Iran chose to move quickly on enrichment, developing a deliverable warhead would take far longer.
“While enrichment to 90% would require only a few weeks if there were still enough working centrifuges, compact warheads remain a far more complex challenge,” it said, citing Pakistan’s experience in the 1990s, when years of testing and design work were needed before a viable compact warhead was achieved.
Missiles at core of deterrence
Iran’s focus on compact warheads is tied to its medium- and long-range missile force, which the report said proved decisive in forcing a ceasefire with Israel in June, even as Israel destroyed a significant number of Iranian missiles and launchers.
Recent contradictory reports over possible missile activity in Iran, later denied by state television, underscore the sensitivity around the country’s missile program and its role in deterrence.
The report said Iran could seek external assistance to shorten the timeline for developing compact warheads, noting persistent rumors within the Revolutionary Guards of cooperation with North Korea.
“Even access to previously tested warhead schematics would represent a major shortcut,” it said, while adding that cooperation beyond missile technology remains impossible to verify.
Iran has long said its nuclear program is peaceful and defensive, while Western governments accuse Tehran of keeping open the option of developing nuclear weapons.
“Any sounds of explosions or gunfire heard during these two days will be related to the drill and will be fully controlled,” Ghorban Valizadeh said, according to Mehr news agency. He urged residents to remain calm.
Valizadeh, commander of the Sayyed al-Shohada Guards unit in Tehran province, said the exercise, known as “Beit al-Moqaddas 16,” will include staged scenarios and will be carried out by ground units.
He said the drill is held every year under the same name by ground forces of the Revolutionary Guards in different parts of the country, framing it as a standard exercise rather than a new development.
The Guards’ ground forces are tasked with homeland defense and the suppression of internal threats.
Contradictory reports on missile activity
The announcement follows contradictory reports earlier this week after an IRGC-aligned outlet reported missile tests over several Iranian cities, including Tehran, Isfahan and Mashhad. State television later denied that any missile launches had taken place, saying circulating images were not linked to a test.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that Israel was aware Iran was conducting military exercises and was making preparations.
Defense analyst Farzin Nadimi told Iran International that the reported drills could be read as a signal, saying the Guards were showing they could carry out coordinated military activity across different parts of Iran.
Iranian officials have repeatedly said the country’s military activities are defensive. Earlier this week, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran’s defense capabilities were not open to discussion.
Pharmaceutical sector representatives say the flow has accelerated after Pakistan curtailed drug exports to Afghanistan, turning Iran’s subsidized market into an attractive source for traffickers.
They argue that wide price gaps between Iran and neighboring countries have made smuggling structurally profitable, sidelining legal export channels.
Drug production has increased by around 50% but shortages persist, Mohsen Abdollahzadeh, a board member of the Drug Distributors Syndicate said on Tuesday.
“Drug smuggling from Iran to Iraq and Afghanistan is so extensive that traders in those countries are unable to import medicines legally and cannot compete with smuggled Iranian drugs,” he added.
Food and Drug Administration of Iran has conceded that so-called “reverse smuggling” exists, driven by sharp price differences with neighboring markets.
However, spokesperson Mohammad Hashemi disputed a widespread surge, saying documented cases remain limited. Continued leakage, he warned, could trigger intermittent shortages and place further strain on an already fragile supply chain.
Recent talks with an Afghan delegation, Hashemi said, focused on expanding formal pharmaceutical exports and improving monitoring, a move critics say reflects belated damage control rather than a solution to entrenched enforcement gaps.
Food market shows same fault lines
The controversy mirrors developments in food markets, where currency policy shifts and the removal of subsidized exchange rates have driven sharp increases in staple prices.
Analysts say both sectors show the same pattern: multiple pricing regimes and weak oversight have encouraged arbitrage and cross-border leakage.
For consumers, the result has been recurrent shortages and rising costs, as subsidized goods – whether medicine or food – slip out of regulated channels faster than authorities can contain them.
Authorities say medicines are still available for now, but concede that delays in transferring allocated foreign exchange, mounting arrears to suppliers and dwindling inventories have pushed the sector to the brink, increasing the risk of shortages in the final months of the Iranian year, which ends on March 20.
In an economy battered by chronic inflation and currency volatility, officials say, keeping drug prices frozen shifts the burden onto manufacturers and ultimately jeopardizes national drug supply chain.
