Temporary marriage in Iran: religiously sanctioned, socially taboo

The UN Security Council’s decision not to lift sanctions on Iran has heightened the stakes for Tehran, with hardliners pushing for nuclear escalation, reformists urging engagement, and a public already strained by inflation.

Hardliners and ultra-hardliners in Tehran, who have long dismissed the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) as a “total failure,” downplayed the impact of the UN’s decision and called for withdrawal from the NPT.

Meanwhile, reformists are calling for urgent diplomacy.

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Hardliners and ultra-hardliners in Tehran, who have long dismissed the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) as a “total failure,” downplayed the impact of the UN’s decision. For them, renewed sanctions are little more than symbolic.

“In the past, sanctions far harsher than these have been imposed; this is simply a psychological tactic intended to impact our economy,” hardline lawmaker Hosseinali Haji-Deligani told ILNA.

Meanwhile, Kayhan newspaper, linked to the Supreme Leader’s office, and other hardline outlets such as Vatan-e Emrouz have urged Tehran to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

In an editorial titled “Is it still not time to leave the NPT after 22 years of costly negotiations?!” the paper argued for building a bomb to “fully strengthen national deterrence.”

Ahmad Naderi, a member of parliament’s presiding board, echoed this stance, insisting that “acquiring nuclear weapons is the only way to preserve Iran’s territorial integrity and national security.”

“Withdrawing from the NPT, adopting a policy of ambiguity and ultimately testing the atomic bomb is the only option that can spare Iran the fate of Iraq and Libya,” said Naderi.

“Experience has shown that countries without nuclear deterrence eventually become victims of invasion or regime change. The time has come to make hard but necessary decisions.”

Warning of a deepening crisis, push for policy change

Others caution that the impact will be severe. Journalist Azadeh Mokhtari argued on social media that the Iranian people will once again bear the brunt of political maneuvering: “The return of UN sanctions means increased economic pressure, reduced access to essential goods and medicine, and a deepening livelihood crisis.”

Meanwhile, reformists are calling for urgent diplomacy. Azar Mansouri, head of the Reform Front, warned that “immediate and maximal use of diplomatic capacity to prevent a global consensus against Iran is an unavoidable necessity.”

She stressed that the window of opportunity for negotiations is closing fast, with reinstated UN resolutions carrying “wide-ranging international consequences.”

Ebrahim Asgharzadeh, a reformist politician, went further, telling Etemad newspaper: “Iran stands on the brink of a historic choice: either insist on the illusion of costly deterrence and a single-track foreign policy, which yields nothing but isolation and domestic erosion, or acknowledge the reality of rival powers.”

He added that the world today is “waiting for a change in Iran’s language and behavior, not a repetition or justification of the past.”

Doubts over Russia and China

Hardliners often argue that Russia and China will help Iran weather sanctions. Yet that view has drawn criticism even from conservative voices. Journalist Ali Gholhaki dismissed the notion: “At least in China’s case, it’s just empty talk! Industrial and economic managers understand the reason well. They have seen examples of this in just the past few days.”

Mohammad-Ali Hanaei, head of the Nations Diplomacy Think Tank, told Etemad that Beijing profits from buying Iranian oil cheaply and has little incentive to back sanctions relief. He urged Tehran to consider “logical restrictions” as a way to manage the crisis.

Moscow has suggested it might mediate. Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia’s envoy to international organizations in Vienna, told Al Mayadeen that Russia and China are preparing a joint initiative to resolve the crisis, though he offered no details.

Diplomatic openings still possible?

Some experts still see potential for compromise. Economics professor Alireza Soltani told Khabar Online that the diplomatic window is not yet closed, while cautioning against “emotional reactions.”

Even if previous UN resolutions are reinstated, he argued, a comprehensive deal remains possible “provided there is political will from both Iran and the United States.”

Foreign policy analyst Morteza Makki raised the possibility of a “miracle” if Tehran can strike a temporary arrangement with the E3 (Britain, France, and Germany) in the coming days or at the UN General Assembly.

Pezeshkian-Trump Meeting Debate

At home, debate is intensifying over whether President Masoud Pezeshkian should meet US President Donald Trump during his upcoming trip to New York.

Reformist cleric Mohammad-Taghi Fazel-Meybodi called such a meeting “the last chance of the system,” recalling that a missed opportunity between Mohammad Khatami and Bill Clinton two decades ago paved the way for today’s sanctions.

Yet many doubt Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will allow it, having denied similar requests from both Khatami and Hassan Rouhani.

For musician Arash Sobhani—a solo artist in exile in the United States and frontman of the acclaimed Iranian band Kiosk—the answer is complicated but clear: there is no real reform afoot, only a choreographed spectacle.

“Reform happens if we see a woman singer, if you see a female singer on stage, that would have been a reform,” said Sobhani, who left Iran in 2005 after performing underground in Tehran for two years.

A recent Sirvan Khosravi concert on the grounds of the former Shah’s palace in Tehran has become a touchstone for the debate.

Videos flooding social media show women in the audience discarding the compulsory hijab and dancing openly—acts that were harshly punished until recently.

The imagery from a site tied to Iran’s ousted monarchy struck some observers as a sign Tehran may have relaxed old taboos.

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Sobhani urged caution. “We want people to be happy. Everybody should be happy all the time,” he told the Eye for Iran podcast. “But let’s not just close our eyes and ignore the elephant in the room. Female singers, your colleagues are not allowed to sing, yet, still, and nothing has changed.”

He argues that venue choice and access matter. Staging concerts in controlled, ticketed spaces—often priced beyond the reach of many—differs fundamentally from allowing free, mass gatherings in iconic public squares.

“They (the Islamic Republic) want (events) in closed spaces, not more than 2,000 to 3,000 people … because they can control that,” he said, contrasting it with a hypothetical crowd of “100,000 people” in a central square.

The push and pull were visible beyond Tehran. In Shiraz, the popular band Bomrani performed to jubilant scenes that some hailed as a cultural opening—only for authorities to ban the group from playing in the city and the wider Fars province days later, accusing it of “norm-breaking behavior.”

The reversal underscored how precarious such moments remain.

Joy is not structural change

Sobhani acknowledges that public joy can itself be opposition—but warns against mistaking it for structural change.

“Joy in the way we live is an opposition, is a form of rebellion, is a form of protest ... but ... as long as these guys are in power, no change is permanent. It’s just going to be temporary, makeshift, just cosmetic ... that’s going to be gone in two days.”

The concerts arrive amid the enduring legacy of Mahsa Jina Amini, whose September 2022 death in morality police custody sparked the Woman, Life, Freedom protest movement.

While the demonstrations were crushed, visible social shifts—like widespread noncompliance with hijab rules at public events—have persisted.

A proposed new hijab and chastity law was put on hold earlier this year amid concerns it could inflame tensions, even as authorities continue arrests and executions.

For Sobhani, the real test isn’t a few exuberant nights but who gets to stand on stage and who gets to attend without fear. Until women can sing freely and artists can speak without reprisal, he says, viral concerts are—at best—nuanced snapshots of resilience, not proof of reform.

You can watch the full episode of Eye for Iran with Arash Sobhani on YouTube, or listen on Spotify, Apple, Amazon, Castbox, or any podcast platform of your choosing.

The resolution that could have lifted the sanctions was rejected after nine members voted against it on Friday, meaning they will be reimposed on 27 September unless a drastic diplomatic breakthrough prompts the Council to reconsider before then.

“The carelessness and passivity of the Islamic Republic in the face of the snapback is truly astonishing,” wrote outspoken sociologist Hossein Hamdieh on X, urging leaders to “wrest the national interests from the devil’s mouth in the middle of hell.”

Ultra-hardliners, meanwhile, remain opposed to any concession and lay the blame for the so-called snapback at the moderates’ door for agreeing to a deal with such mechanisms a decade ago.

“This flawed mechanism is the result of the mistakes of the JCPOA negotiating team in 2015, including Mr. Araghchi himself,” lawmaker Amir-Hossein Sabeti wrote on X.

“The cost of implementing the snapback is less than the cost of extending it,” he added, arguing that prolonging the deadline would strip Iran of its “nuclear ambiguity” card.

Diplomacy or publicity stunt?

Araghchi’s authority, under attack at home, is also being questioned abroad.

A day earlier, French President Emmanuel Macron had called the sanctions return a “done deal” and questioned whether Araghchi had full authority when presenting his recent IAEA agreement and proposal to the Europeans.

Araghchi rejected the claim, writing on X that he enjoyed the backing of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. Analysts in Tehran said Macron’s comments were aimed at pressuring Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to openly endorse or reject the initiatives.

Skepticism also persists over Araghchi’s timing.

“The proposal ahead of the UNSC vote on Resolution 2231 was not meant as a serious move,” Turkey-based analyst Ruhollah Rahimpour wrote on X.

Submitting such a plan just two days before the vote, he argued, meant “you have no sense of timing, or you only sought publicity.”

Last chance?

Some analysts believe the UN General Assembly next week could be Tehran’s final opportunity to resolve the standoff.

“The only chance remaining is that Iran’s proposals are submitted in writing and signed, and direct dialogue between Iran and the United States takes place when Pezeshkian is in New York,” Canada-based commentator Alireza Namvar-Haghighi told Iran International.

Both US and Iranian envoys said after the UNSC vote on Friday that the door is not shut to diplomacy. A negotiated way to avoid UN sanctions is still possible — but not probable.

The charge came from prominent politician Hossein Marashi, head of the centrist Construction Party, who on Wednesday accused ultraconservatives of striking a discordant note on matters of foreign policy and national security.

“(They) cannot bring themselves to act within the overall framework of the political system,” Marashi told the centrist outlet Khabar Online.

“Either their level of understanding is very low, or they fail to grasp that the president, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), and the foreign minister do not speak, decide, or act without careful calculation and coordination with the system’s general policies.”

The “system,” in official parlance, refers to the supreme leader.

When asked if hardliners’ attacks on the moderate administration should be seen as an indirect challenge to Khamenei himself, Marashi said: “I think those in parliament are capable of slighting the Leader even.”

Araghchi under fire

Since Israeli and US strikes on Iran in June, Tehran moderates inside and outside president Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration have been advocating direct negotiations with Washington.

Yet some have also begun questioning the chief protagonist of diplomacy, foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, urging that he be replaced by former nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi.

Replacing Araghchi, however, appears unrealistic.

On September 18, Hadi Borhani, an expert on Israeli affairs, suggested instead that the president appoint Salehi as his plenipotentiary envoy for regional affairs.

But it is unclear what Salehi could do that Araghchi cannot: decisions are made by the SNSC and ultimately by the supreme leader.

Moderates appear to be playing the same game they accuse hardliners of—shooting the messenger when the author of the message is untouchable.

'MPs abusing powers'

That may explain some of their broader criticisms of the foreign ministry.

Prominent centrist and former Tehran mayor Gholamhossein Karbaschi argued on Thursday that the ministry remains dominated by hardliners from the previous administration.

“Only two or three individuals from Amir-Abdollahian and Raisi’s team have been replaced in the current government,” he told Khabar Online, referring to the late foreign minister and president killed in a helicopter crash in May 2024.

The harshest attacks, however, are reserved for rival hardliners in parliament.

“What these lawmakers do to government officials is beyond their official mandate and amounts to abuse,” Karbaschi said, accusing MPs of putting factional feuds above national interests with their impeachment threats.

The ultraconservatives summoned Araghchi over his Cairo agreement with IAEA chief Rafael Grossi, a move Karbaschi likened to stretching oversight powers to the point of undermining national security.

“He hasn’t done badly, but his efforts haven’t led to any breakthrough,” Karbaschi said of Araghchi’s record.