Tehran hardliners demand escalation as Trump says talks are progressing

Published this week, Stolen Revolution: Betrayal and Hope in Modern Iran has drawn attention at policy forums in Washington and New York, where its authors discussed Iran’s modern history, the resilience of the Islamic Republic and the country’s uncertain future after war, economic collapse and the succession of Mojtaba Khamenei.

The New York Times Book Review described Stolen Revolution as “one of the most perceptive books on modern Iran in years, capturing not only the machinery of repression but the fragile forms of hope that survive beneath it.”

The Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings hosted Torbati, the New York Times Iran correspondent, and Sharafedin, the Head of Digital at Iran International and a former Reuters Iran correspondent, on Wednesday.

The discussion was moderated by Suzanne Maloney, an Iran scholar and vice president and director of the Foreign Policy program at Brookings.

“One theme that runs throughout the book is the constant push and pull between the nation and the state,” Sharafedin said at the event.

“The Islamic Republic tries to project an image of continuity, to show it is business as usual and they are in full control. Much of the people’s struggle against the system has been an effort to break that continuity. Yet the system has proved quite resilient. Even foreign intervention was unable to create a rupture or break that continuity,” he said.

Sharafedin said the succession of Mojtaba Khamenei after his father was a sign of that continuity.

100%

The assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February plunged the country into its most perilous crisis since the 1979 revolution, leaving the Islamic Republic struggling with the aftermath of war, a collapsing economy and the military's expanding role in state affairs.

“I think what we've learned over the last 10 or 12 weeks—and what also became clearer to us while writing the book—is that individuals play a very important role in shaping the trajectory of events,” Torbati said.

“At the same time, the system is bigger than any one person—whether a supreme leader, a general, or a national security adviser. It is a system deeply committed to its own survival and self-preservation.”

Torbati said Iran is projected to face around 70 percent inflation this year. Food prices have soared, and layoffs have followed the war. Yet the system and its leadership appear willing to absorb those costs, and have ordinary Iranians bear much of the burden, in order to survive and avoid capitulating to the United States and Israel.

100%

“By contrast, American leaders must contend with public opinion. President Trump has to worry about public support, and his party has to worry about the midterm elections,” she said.

“As a result, the Iranian government can often tolerate far more pain and pursue tactics for much longer than its American counterparts. I think that helps explain its survival up to this point.”

At a separate discussion hosted by the 92nd Street Y in New York on Wednesday night, journalist Scott Anderson, the author of King of Kings, joined Torbati and Sharafedin to assess Iran's modern history and the fallout from the US-Israeli war.

“Iranians have expressed [they want democracy] many, many times, and they've been machine-gunned for it,” Anderson said, referring to the January massacre in Iran that killed tens of thousands.

“Iran is not a closed society like North Korea. Iranians have a very good concept of what's happening in the outside world. Yet it's just this massive monolithic structure that has the guns,” he said.

100%

The book traces how a revolution that promised to build an egalitarian society gradually transformed into what the authors describe as a mafia state. It tells that story through the lives of six Iranians whose experiences span the arc of modern Iranian history and who undergo profound transformations themselves.

One of them is Mehdi Karroubi, a devoted follower of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini who rose to the highest ranks of power. Over time, however, he became a vocal critic of the Islamic Republic after seeing corruption, especially the growing role of the Revolutionary Guards in the economy. He paid a heavy price for his criticism and ultimately spent years under house arrest.

Another is Said Rahmani, who returned to Iran hoping to spark a startup boom in his country. Instead, he encountered a ruthless security state that seized much of his business empire and eventually forced him into exile.

“In my opinion, this is a book that will be of great interest both to those who have never read anything about Iran but are watching the news and want to better understand the country, and to those of us who already have large libraries of books on Iran,” Maloney said.

Former UK Foreign Secretary Jack Straw called the book “extraordinarily powerful,” while Jonathan Blitzer, an American journalist and writer, described it as “a masterwork of reporting.”

David Hoffman, author of The Billion Dollar Spy, called it “a brilliant investigative history of modern Iran,” and the BBC’s Lyse Doucet said it was “a rare and riveting chronicle of a major political story of our time.”

100%

According to the information obtained by Iran International, the order to keep Paydari supporters away from the gatherings was issued after requests by President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who also heads Tehran’s negotiating team.

• 

  The Paydari Party: Iran’s ultra-hardliner powerhouse explained

Protesters carrying placards opposing concessions on the nuclear issue have also been removed from the state-backed rallies, according to the same information.

The move points to an effort by senior figures in the Islamic Republic to contain ultra-hardline pressure at a sensitive moment, as Tehran and Washington continue talks over a possible understanding involving the ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz, frozen Iranian assets and nuclear-related terms.

• 

  Iran’s president offers resignation, citing total takeover by IRGC commanders

The Paydari Front and its allies have been among the most vocal opponents of negotiations with the United States. In recent days, figures close to the camp have criticized Ghalibaf and the negotiating team, warning against concessions and arguing that talks with Washington amount to a mistake.

The reported removals came as the Islamic Republic held the first anniversary ceremony for Ruhollah Khomeini since the killing of Ali Khamenei, without the former supreme leader’s presence.

• 

  Hardline MP draws backlash over post seen as swipe at Mojtaba Khamenei

During the ceremony on Thursday, Mojtaba Khamenei issued a message warning against what he called doubt, despair, fear and suspicion.

The message, read by Mohammad-Javad Haj-Ali-Akbari, Tehran’s interim Friday prayer leader, said any action that causes public pessimism or disillusionment amounts to helping the enemy.

The dispute intensified after Tehran suspended talks with Washington on Monday, arguing that Israeli military operations in Lebanon violated the broader ceasefire framework established after the recent US-Iran conflict.

While US President Donald Trump described the interruption as a temporary “little glitch,” Iranian officials have since made clear that a halt to Israeli military operations in Lebanon remains a prerequisite for renewed diplomatic engagement.

On Tuesday, Fars News Agency, which is affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), cited an informed source as rejecting Trump's claims about ongoing, high-speed negotiations.

According to the source, exchanges of messages between Tehran and Washington had stopped “at least for a few days,” while Iran's latest communication to the United States was described as “a clear warning regarding Lebanon.”

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of parliament and head of Iran's negotiating team, accused the United States of failing to uphold ceasefire commitments, saying on X that enforcement of a naval blockade and Israel's attacks on Lebanon were “clear evidence of US non-commitment to the ceasefire.”

“Every choice has a price, and the bill comes due,” he added.

Ghalibaf later said he had informed Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri that Iran would not only suspend negotiations but would also be “in direct confrontation with the enemy” if Israeli attacks on Lebanon continued.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi echoed that position, writing on X that a “ceasefire between Iran and the US is unequivocally a ceasefire on all fronts, including in Lebanon.” He added that any violation on one front “shall be considered a violation across all fronts.”

Tehran sees leverage in talks

With Tehran linking progress in negotiations to developments in Lebanon, the fate of any future agreement increasingly appears tied to the trajectory of the Israel-Hezbollah confrontation.

Some Iranian lawmakers believe Washington will ultimately seek to restrain Israel to prevent a broader crisis.

Ahmad Bakhshayesh, a member of parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, told Tabnak that the United States would likely increase pressure on Netanyahu's government to avoid further escalation.

Tabnak itself argued that Tehran could use the negotiations as leverage.

“Given that Hezbollah—Iran's most powerful regional ally—entered the conflict immediately following the attacks on Iran, Tehran could leverage the threat of walking away from ongoing negotiations to pressure the United States into restraining Israel,” the outlet wrote.

Growing doubts about a deal

Despite such expectations, several analysts expressed pessimism about the prospects for a final agreement between Tehran and Washington.

Hassan Hanizadeh, a senior analyst on Middle Eastern affairs, told Fararu that Israel's intensified military campaign in Lebanon was “directly designed to pressure Iran and can pose a major risk to the formation of any understanding between Tehran and Washington.”

He argued that Tehran views the attacks as part of broader Western pressure tactics and added: “Evidence shows that Trump has no desire for a comprehensive agreement in the current atmosphere.”

Amir-Ali Abolfath, an expert on US affairs, also questioned the likelihood of a breakthrough.

Speaking to Fararu, he said Israel's confrontation with both Iran and Hezbollah had made negotiations significantly more complicated than in previous rounds.

“The Americans are negotiating to not reach an agreement,” he said. “America proposes conditions that make it seem as though they are shouting: ‘We do not want to reach an agreement with the Islamic Republic,’ because their conditions are unfeasible.”

Other commentators voiced similar doubts. Reza Ghobeishawi, writing in Asr-e Iran, argued that Trump has concluded a deal with Tehran is unattainable and is instead using discussions over reopening the Strait of Hormuz to buy time.

The contrast was on display this week as senior Shiite cleric Ayatollah Jafar Sobhani publicly endorsed negotiations with Washington while fresh military exchanges across the Gulf highlighted the risk of renewed escalation.

Quoted by several Iranian outlets on Tuesday, Sobhani said “we should back negotiations and follow a good outcome from them, and a good negotiation must be based on the collective and national interests of the country.”

The remarks were among the clearest signs yet that influential clerical circles are prepared to publicly back diplomacy.

Several newspapers also published composite images showing chief negotiator and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf alongside IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi, appearing to emphasize unity among senior officials as Tehran reviews US proposals.

Ghalibaf has also been quoted as saying Iran is examining Washington’s suggestions, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week that negotiations over the language of a possible agreement could be be concluded within days if progress continues.

Yet the diplomatic signals have coincided with renewed escalation on the ground. Iranian attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain, and US strikes on Iranian targets in the early hours of Wednesday, underscored how fragile any diplomatic opening remains.

At the same time, hardline rhetoric has continued inside Iran. A group of lawmakers on Tuesday called for expanding the range of Iran’s missiles until they could reach Washington.

The competing narratives were also laid bare in an interview with veteran diplomat and US expert Abbas Maleki in Sharq newspaper, and another with conservative analyst Hassan Hanizadeh published by Fararu.

Hanizadeh outlined ongoing indirect contacts between Tehran and Washington while warning that President Donald Trump’s approach could amount to a delaying tactic aimed at securing broader strategic advantages.

Yet unlike many conservative commentators, he did not reject negotiations outright. Instead, he acknowledged that Iran had already conveyed a five-point proposal to Washington through Pakistani intermediaries and argued that talks could be acceptable if they safeguarded national interests and delivered sanctions relief.

Maleki placed greater emphasis on diplomacy itself, describing it as a pillar of national power and pushing back against factions that rely primarily on military force.

He characterized the current phase of Iran-US relations as one of “suspension,” requiring diplomatic engagement to manage the aftermath of the conflict and protect Iran’s interests.

Despite their differences, both men portrayed negotiations as a necessary component of statecraft rather than a concession.

The limits of establishment support for diplomacy were also underscored by the conservative daily Farhikhtegan, which revisited the experience of the 2015 nuclear deal and described it as a “strategic error.”

The paper argued that any future agreement must satisfy two conditions: reversibility and multilateral guarantees.

Iran, it said, should retain the ability to immediately reverse any commitments if Washington defaults, while financial and political mechanisms should involve other international actors to raise the cost of a future US withdrawal.

While influential clerics, politicians and commentators increasingly portray negotiations as necessary, military confrontation continues to shape the political environment.

The result is a moment in which preparations for a deal and preparations for further conflict appear to be unfolding simultaneously.

Gofman assumed leadership of Israel's intelligence agency with a vow to continue Mossad's covert campaign against Iran and its allies.

Israel's actions against Iran and its regional network had altered the balance of power in the Middle East, Gofman said at a welcoming ceremony.

"But the task is not yet complete. The heart of the Mossad lies in covert operations against its targets. We will safeguard that mission at all costs."

Standing beside him, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made the intent clearer, declaring that Iran's ruling system was destined to disappear.

"This regime of terror, whose fate is to pass from the world — and we will help it reach that destination — will not again threaten us with nuclear bombs and thousands of deadly ballistic missiles," he said.

The message echoed the farewell address of outgoing Mossad chief David Barnea, who publicly framed regime change in Tehran as a possible objective.

"Regime change in Iran is a possible and achievable goal," Barnea said. "This is a possible mission, and it is clear that this will require determination, patience, and adherence to the goal."

That is the agency Gofman now inherits: one openly encouraged by Israel's leadership to keep Iran at the center of its covert war, and possibly to think beyond containment.

A soldier takes the reins

Unlike several previous Mossad directors, Gofman is not a career intelligence officer. Born in Belarus in 1976, when it was part of the Soviet Union, he immigrated to Israel with his family in 1990 and built his career in the military before serving as Netanyahu's military secretary.

His appointment has generated debate in Israel because he comes from outside the traditional Mossad establishment. Supporters see him as a battle-tested commander with firsthand experience confronting Iran and its allies, while critics question whether a close Netanyahu confidant without a traditional intelligence background should lead the country's premier spy agency.

Gofman also arrives with a reputation for personal bravery.

"He is a very brave man," Alex Winston, a news editor at The Jerusalem Post, told Iran International.

Winston pointed to Gofman's actions on October 7, when he rushed to join the fighting after learning of the Hamas attacks.

Security camera footage later released online showed him fighting Hamas at a junction in southern Israel before being wounded and evacuated for treatment.

"He literally got in his car, went downstairs to fight Hamas terrorists," Winston said.

Despite the questions surrounding his appointment, Winston believes Gofman's years of service and battlefield experience have prepared him for the role.

"The fate of Israelis around the world and the Jewish people around the world is now in his hands," he said.

What it means for Iran

For Israeli analysts who closely follow Iran, Gofman's appointment signals continuity, and perhaps escalation.

"Roman is a very hard guy against Iran," Beni Sabti, an Iran researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), told Iran International.

Sabti believes Gofman's upbringing in the Soviet Union shaped his views toward authoritarian regimes.

"We have to remember that he comes from Russia and his culture and childhood is full of experience from Soviet Union that seems so similar like the Iran regime," he said.

According to Sabti, Gofman's years as military secretary gave him an unusually close view of Israel's strategy toward Tehran. "He knows maybe more than anyone about the operations, about how Iranians think, what should Israel do."

Sabti expects Gofman to focus not only on Iran's nuclear and missile programs but also on Tehran's network of regional proxies, particularly Hezbollah.

"He has a knife between his teeth," Sabti said, using a Hebrew expression for someone relentless and aggressive.

The researcher predicted Gofman would seek to expand covert operations, intelligence gathering and agent recruitment while increasing pressure on Iran's regional activities and financial networks. He also expects the new Mossad chief to place a strong emphasis on countering Hezbollah and disrupting Iran's proxy network across the region.

Winston said confronting Tehran and preventing it from rebuilding its regional influence will remain the agency's top priority.

"We definitely have to deal with this problem. This is the utmost priority," Winston said.

"That's going to be his goal. That's his priority."

For some Iranians, Mossad has become more than an intelligence agency.

Sogand Fakheri, an Israeli-Iranian actress from the TV show Tehran, which chronicles Mossad agents inside Iran, said she regularly hears from Iranians looking for ways to help efforts against the Islamic Republic.

"A lot of Iranians inside Iran sent me messages for so long that they want to help the Mossad and how can they do it," Fakheri, who is also an Iran analyst at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs (JCFA) told Iran International.

"People want to join, people want to help the Mossad, people want to cooperate with anyone who would come to help them."