Prediction, pain: US senators see Netanyahu, Trump ramping up Iran pressure

The bureau has released posters seeking information on the two men with a combined reward of up to $25 million - $5 million from the FBI and $20 million from the US State Department’s Rewards for Justice program - for information leading to Levinson's location.

The two Iranian intelligence officers identified by the FBI are Mohammad Baseri and Ahmad Khazai. The FBI alleges that Baseri and Khazai, acting as officials of Iran's Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS), orchestrated Levinson's abduction, subsequent detention and likely death.

The former FBI agent vanished during a freelance investigation in Kish Island, southern Iran, in 2007. His disappearance has remained an open case for the FBI, which has vowed to bring him home.

Iranian officials have never acknowledged detaining Levinson.

"The FBI remains steadfast in our commitment to return Bob to his family," said Sanjay Virmani, Special Agent in Charge of the FBI Washington Field Office’s Counterterrorism Division.

“Our extensive investigation continues to develop new leads and intelligence, and we will pursue all options to hold every Iranian official involved in his abduction accountable.”

The US Treasury Department previously sanctioned both Baseri and Khazai in December 2020 for their roles in Levinson's disappearance.

His family announced that he was presumed dead in March 2020, on the advice of US officials.

The Levinsons said in a 2023 statement, “We will never stop demanding that Iranian leaders answer for what happened to Robert Levinson, the greatest man we have ever known. His abduction on Iranian soil in March 2007, his years of imprisonment with a total lack of any human rights or decency, and ultimately his murder, are on their hands.”

In what appears to be a brewing turf war, former security chief Ali Shamkhani and President Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration are publicly asserting their control over the nuclear file and potential negotiations with Washington.

First, the state-run IRNA news agency and the government’s information office on Monday, both controlled by the presidential administration, referred to Shamkhani, the former head of the Supreme National Security Council, as overseeing the nuclear file while reporting on his visit to a nuclear exhibition.

The following day, the Rouydad24 news website, not under direct state control, quoted the foreign ministry’s information office in an article stating that the ministry remains in charge of all negotiations related to Iran’s nuclear issue.

"The responsibility for conducting talks and negotiations on the nuclear issue remains with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as before. This process is managed by the honorable minister and carried out by the political and international legal departments. Naturally, the formulation of negotiation strategies and coordination between relevant institutions continues to be handled by the Supreme National Security Council," Rouydad24's report quoted the foreign ministry.

Some experts would interpret this statement as reflecting the foreign ministry’s view that it should lead the nuclear negotiations, while the national security council should set broader policies and potentially determine the key issues and parameters of the talks.

The Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) is Iran's principal decision-making body on national security issues, which includes defense, foreign policy, and intelligence matters.

In December 2024, Ali Shamkhani, who served as secretary of the SNSC from 2013 to 2023, declared himself a key decision-maker on Iran's global strategy and nuclear diplomacy.

"I have been entrusted with the project of determining Iran's position in the global order," he said at the time, after having left the SNSC.

Shamkhani's statement, many experts would ascertain, likely came with the Supreme Leader's approval.

The Foreign Ministry, meanwhile, insists that there has been no change in the leadership of nuclear negotiations. While the SNSC sets overall policy, the ministry remains responsible for conducting nuclear diplomacy.

Previously, government's spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani had seemingly rejected the notion that Shamkhani would be at the helm of nuclear negotiations, saying, "Ask the Atomic Energy Organization who is responsible for the nuclear file."

In the face of such contradiction, Iran experts may view Shamkhani as a representative of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on major foreign policy matters—given that Khamenei is the ultimate authority in the country.

It is unlikely, however, that the presidential administration or Shamkhani himself would publicly acknowledge this.

However, Mohammad Mohajeri, the former editor of the hardline daily Kayhan, also noted that Khamenei's remark is likely to provoke backlash from hardliners and those cautious about a potential rapprochement with Washington.

In an interview with the Jamaran News website, which is linked to former President Mohammad Khatami of the reformist faction, Mohajeri noted that Khamenei's use of the term "making a deal" suggests the possibility of an agreement. He argued that this could signal support for President Masoud Pezeshkian's efforts to push for sanctions relief.

"It won’t be easy and will take time," Mohajeri added. "Nonetheless, the statement could mark the beginning of a new strategy."

According to Jamaran, Mohajeri was referring to a sentence in Khamenei's latest speech on January 28 this year, in which he said: "Behind the smiles of diplomacy, there are always hidden and malicious enmities and resentments. We must open our eyes and be careful with whom we are dealing, trading, and talking."

“When a person knows his opponent, he may make a deal, but he knows what to do," Khamenei added.

Khamenei made these remarks while sitting beside President Masoud Pezeshkian, who has publicly expressed Tehran's openness to talks. The media widely interpreted the Supreme Leader's statements as a "green light for negotiations."

Asked if Khamenei's statement indicated a green light for starting the talks, Mohajeri said: "I do not like that expression. However, I believe this highlighted a new strategy." He added, "It was interesting that while the hardliners expected Khamenei to endorse their views, he did not express any opposition to negotiations though he warned officials to be wary of the enemy's deceit."

Mohajeri said Khamenei’s remarks angered hardliners, who may remain silent for now but will soon find another pretext to attack the government. "Before long, you’ll see them lashing out over other issues," he said, adding that they may also target negotiators, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who is set to lead the talks.

In recent weeks, former Foreign Minister and current aide to President Pezeshkian, Javad Zarif, has come under increasing attack, with hardliners accusing him of proposing negotiations with the Trump administration.

Zarif, however, denied the claim, telling Jamaran News, "We did not make any proposal. We simply responded to their suggestion for interaction."

While reformist-aligned media have strongly defended Zarif, some analysts in Tehran suggest that his position within the government is not particularly strong.

Some conservative figures in Iran, including former state TV chief and Tourism Minister Ezzatollah Zarghami, have also weighed in on recent calls for talks with the US.

While Zarghami had told Iranian media that such proposals had created a "bipolar situation" in the country, he wrote in an X post after Khamenei's remarks that "the Leader’s clever measure put an end to the bipolar situation between supporters and opponents of negotiations with the United States."

"Make no mistake this effort by Elon Musk and so-called DOGE to shut down the Agency of international development is an absolute gift to our adversaries, to Russia to China, to Iran and others because AID is an essential instrument of US foreign policy and US national security policy," Van Hollen said.

DOGE is the Department of Government Efficiency formed and led by world's richest man Musk under President Donald Trump. Musk on Monday said Trump wants to shut USAID down, and its offices were closed and employees told to work from home.

"This has nothing to do with making the US government more efficient and everything to do with aiding and abetting our adversaries around the world," the Maryland junior senator told a cheering crowd outside USAID's Washington DC headquarters.

Human rights activists have expressed concern about the impact of Trump's earlier 90-day pause in foreign aid on Iran-related programs, with some saying the order could help Tehran further restrict its people’s access to information.

The United States has supported civil society and human rights in Iran on everything from documenting abuses by Tehran, Washington's Mideast arch enemy, to backing efforts to transcend official internet censorship.

Musk in a discussion broadcast on the social media platform he owns X said USAID was "beyond repair". Trump told reporters on Sunday that USAID had "been run by a bunch of radical lunatics ... We're getting them out, and then we'll make a decision."

Iranian engineers and scientists are seeking to be able to turn nuclear fuel into a weapon within months rather than a year or more, the report said citing intelligence collected in the last months of the Biden administration.

The report cited US officials as saying Washington still believes that Iran and its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had not made a decision to develop a weapon.

In December, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said the Biden administration was concerned that a weakened Iran could build a nuclear weapon and that he was briefing President-elect Donald Trump's team on the risk.

The Biden administration's intelligence assessment has been relayed to Trump’s national security team during the transition of power, the New York Times added.

The report was released as the relatively moderate president of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, has publicly expressed willingness to re-engage with the United States in talks over its nuclear program, which it says is for peaceful purposes.

Setbacks dealt to Iran and its regional allies in a 15-month conflict with Israel and the inability of Iranian missiles to pierce US and Israeli air defenses, the New York Times reported, galvanized Iran to to seek new ways to deter its adversaries.

On January 10, then-CIA Director William Burns suggested that Iran’s weakened strategic position marked by regional setbacks could open the door to renewed nuclear negotiations.

"That sense of weakness could also theoretically create a possibility for serious negotiations," Burns said in an interview with NPR, referencing his experience with secret talks involving Tehran more than a decade ago.

Last month, Trump, Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu all described Iran as weakened, citing Tehran's reduced influence following the fall of its ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Israeli attacks on its air defenses and the killing of leaders of its armed Palestinian and Lebanese allies.

However, Iran's Supreme Leader denied his country's power has been undermined. "That delusional fantasist claimed that Iran has been weakened. The future will reveal who has truly been weakened."