Iran’s Peculiar Election: Where Competition Is a Criminal Offense

Akhoundi said, "I am confident that all of us (candidates from the Reform Front) meet the qualifications stipulated in the constitution, and there is no reason to disqualify any of us."

The plea comes in the wake of the announcement by Javad Emam, spokesperson for the Reform Front, which revealed that Abbas Akhoundi, Masoud Pezeshkian, and Es'haq Jahangiri have been selected as the Front’s candidates for the government-controlled election to choose a successor to Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash last month.

Former President Mohammad Khatami has declared that he will endorse the election only if at least one candidate from the Reform Front is allowed to participate.

The Guardian Council, a 12-member body closely aligned with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has been systematically blocking 'reformist' candidates from participating in elections. The practice has been a major point of contention, reinforcing the stronghold of conservative and hardline groups within Iran’s political system. The trend of disqualifying potential 'reformist' and non-hardline candidates has been particularly noticeable since 2020, impacting both parliamentary and presidential races.

As the election approaches, the international community and domestic observers are closely watching the Guardian Council’s actions, which are seen as pivotal in determining the direction of Iran's future political landscape.

Esmaili, 49, is widely considered as the candidate fielded by a political group known as the Meghdad Circle, which has close ties with Raisi’s family. The group is led by Raisi’s son-in-law Meghdad Nili, and his very influential brother Meysam Nili, who is currently an adviser to the Culture and Islamic Guidance Minister.

The Nili brothers were among ardent supporters of the populist Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005 and 2009 elections but have since joined forces with the ultra-hardline Paydari Party, partly made up of former Ahmadinejad officials and supporters.

On Friday, the late President’s family hosted a religious event at a shrine in northern Tehran “with the presence” of Esmaili. Posting an image of the invitation poster, the prominent reformist commentator Abbas Abdi contended in a tweet that this could be taken as a signal of Esmaili’s endorsement by the family.

Esmaili, who is known for his rigidity in cultural matters such as cinema and theater, publishing and hijab, was promoted from obscurity to a ministerial position by Raisi after leading his campaign in 2021.

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In 2016 Esmaili was sentenced to five years in prison for receiving bribes during his tenure as deputy governor of Esfahan Province as well 74 lashes and a three-year ban on government service.

Opponents and rivals say his appeal to then Chief Justice Sadegh Amoli-Larijani to order the case to be reviewed by the Supreme Court was declined. Ebrahim Raisi who was appointed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as Chief Justice in 2019, however, ordered the review which led to Esmaili’s acquittal. There are also claims that there are still some open cases against him.

“Presenting Esmaili as the symbol of Raisi’s government, with such a tarnished record, is a mockery of battle against corruption,” Abdolreza Davari, a former Ahmadinejad confidante, tweeted after the announcement of Esmaili’s candidacy last week.

Political opponents including his hardline rivals say he lacks the experience required for qualification as a presidential candidate compared to most other candidates who are current or former lawmakers or top former officials.

Photo attached to email - Esmaili was accompanied by Executive Vice-President Mohsen Mansouri at the time of his registration

Rumors had been in circulation in Iranian political circles since Wednesday that Esmaili and Mohsen Mansouri, executive vice-president in Raisi’s cabinet, had pressured cabinet officials to sign a letter to the Guardian Council to endorse Esmaili as a “notable government or religious figure”, as the Constitution requires from candidates, to prevent him from being disqualified by the election watchdog.

A leaked letter an image of which is widely circulating on social media indicates that at least sixteen cabinet ministers and officials had signed what they call “a testimony”. The authenticity of the letter was confirmed by the signatories’ condemnation of its revelation and threats of legal prosecution of those behind the leak.

The endorsement letter will put the election watchdog in a very difficult position as Esmaili’s approval, despite his lack of considerable executive experience and given his corruption record, can be interpreted as submission to pressure from the government.

Besides Executive Deputy Mansouri, Government Spokesman Ali Bahadori-Jahromi, Chief of the State Administrative Organization Meysam Lotfi, Vice-President in Women’s Affairs Ensieh Khazali, Minister of Oil Javad Owji, Minister of Communications Isa Zare’pour, Acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri-Kani, the signatures of nine others are included in the hand-written letter.

Acting President Mohammad Mokhber, the other four ministers who registered to vote as well as Minister of Interior Ahmad Vahidi and Minister of Intelligence Esmail Khatib whose ministries are directly involved in the elections, Minister of Defense Mohammadreza Ashtiani who is banned by law from interfering in politics, and Minister of Cultural Heritage Ezzatollah Zarghami have not signed Esmaili’s endorsement letter.

The announcement was made through a social media post on X, where Manzoor cited the overwhelming presence of Revolutionary Front hardliner candidates and the presence of more suitable options as his reasons for stepping back.

The development comes in the wake of the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, which has led to the announcement of a snap election on June 28.

The practice of announcing candidacies only to withdraw later is seen as a move by many in Iran to garner visibility and influence in the political arena. It is anticipated that many of the 80 candidates who registered to run will also soon withdraw in hope of getting their share in the next administration.

While the Guardian Council, a 12-member body under the control of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has initiated vetting the hopefuls to announce the final candidates, Ezzatollah Zarghami, the Minister of Cultural Heritage and Tourism, in an interview on Saturday, expressed hopes that the council will be more generous in approving a varied list of candidates than in previous years.

However, Hadi Tahhan Nazif, spokesperson for the council, denied any allegations of election engineering in an interview, claiming that the Council impartially assesses the qualifications of all candidates, irrespective of their political affiliations.

The council has disqualified hundreds of candidates in both parliamentary and presidential elections over recent years, particularly since 2020.

The announcement was made by Javad Emam, the spokesperson for the Reform Front, via a tweet that revealed Abbas Akhoundi, Masoud Pezeshkian, and Es'haq Jahangiri as the chosen candidates for the government-controlled election to choose a successor for Ebrahim Raisi who died in a helicopter crash last month. Each of these politicians who have registered to run secured two-thirds of the internal votes.

Former President Mohammad Khatami, who is highly regarded by many Iranian 'reformists', announced that he will endorse the presidential election only if at least one candidate from the Reform Front is permitted to run.

The path ahead for the nominees appears fraught with challenges. The Guardian Council, a 12-member body under the control of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has a storied history of blocking 'reformist' candidates. The practice has reinforced the stronghold of conservative and hardline groups within Iran's political realm, with a significant number of potential 'reformist' candidates having been disqualified since 2020, affecting both parliamentary and presidential races.

Abbas Akhoundi, the former Minister of Roads and Urban Development under President Hassan Rouhani. Masoud Pezeshkian, with his past roles as health minister and parliamentary leader, earlier claimed to restore faith in the electoral process among the disenchanted public. Es'haq Jahangiri, a moderate political figure and former vice president is the other one named by the front. 

At 55, the anti-American ideologue and self-proclaimed revolutionary is seen by many as a potential replica of Ebrahim Raisi’s government.

The state-monitored Rouydad24 news outlet suggests that while his path to victory is complex, certain elements within Iran's political landscape could favor his potential to win the presidency.

Jalili, an ultraconservative close ally of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, belongs to the Principalist faction in Iranian politics, which emphasizes the principles of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Having run as a presidential candidate in the past, one of Jalili's official campaign slogans was “Great Jihad for Iran’s Leap Forward.”

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He has held significant diplomatic and security roles within the Iranian government, serving as the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council from 2007 to 2013 and currently as a member of the Expediency Discernment Council.

Khamenei, who many experts assert virtually selected Raisi in 2021 despite the facade of elections, has maintained a favorable relationship with Jalili for many years.

Pointing to his inflexibility as Iran’s nuclear negotiator between 2007 and 2013, Rouydad24 notes that Jalili’s resistance to making concessions and his rigid approach resulted in multiple UN Security Council and IAEA Board of Governors resolutions against Iran. These resulted in international economic sanctions that began to unravel the relative stability of Iran's oil-dependent economy.

During his tenure as deputy foreign minister, several European diplomats described Jalili to Reuters as someone who strongly and unwaveringly expressed his views. One diplomat even remarked that Jalili "specialized in monologue" rather than engaging in debate.

His approach often frustrated diplomats, with then-Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs William Burns recounting an instance where Jalili engaged in nearly 40 minutes of philosophical discourse during a meeting, avoiding direct answers and complicating the negotiation process.

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Yet, this firm stance on nuclear negotiations has shaped the perception of him as a figure who does not easily bend to Western pressures. It’s likely that certain factions, particularly hardline and conservative groups, may support him for his ideological purity and rigid approach to negotiations.

Rouydad24’s analysis of Jalili suggests that his resistance amid nuclear talks may have been part of a broader strategy by the regime to develop Iran's nuclear capabilities – while buying time.

Be that as it may, Jalili’s diplomatic style led some experts to conclude that he would not be a suitable candidate, if the regime wants to advance the state of its current foreign policy and improve relations with the West.

His main rival for the presidency may be Ali Larijani, a conservative and former parliamentary speaker. Some say the stage is set for a diplomatic dichotomy reminiscent of the 2013 election, where their contrasting approaches were already evident.

In 2022, according to some accounts, Jalili confronted Larijani over nuclear negotiations during a special meeting of the Expediency Council. Jalili reportedly proposed that Iran withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, a suggestion opposed by Larijani and others.

Rouydad24 analysis points out that in Iran's foreign policy, the true power lies with higher-level authorities who make the final decisions. This could be a reference to the Supreme Leader. The President and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs act as executors of these decisions. Despite this clear hierarchy, different administrations have managed to influence the decision-making process.

It’s unclear whether Jalili, a veteran of the Iran-Iraq war and former member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, would shift his stance on reaching a truce with Western powers.

Known for his strong “nationalistic” views and deep belief in the Islamic Republic’s moral and strategic success against perceived American aggression, Jalili has always taken a hardline approach. His track record suggests that as President, he would continue to emphasize resistance and minimal concessions, casting doubt on any potential move towards diplomatic compromise with the West.

It’s more likely that Khamenei will prefer to maintain the status quo, positioning Jalili as a convenient successor to Raisi.