Iran International
Five ministers and two vice-presidents are vying for Ebrahim Raisi’s seat. Most ministers, along with the late President’s family, have thrown their support behind Culture and Islamic Guidance Minister Mohammad-Mehdi Esmaili.
Esmaili, 49, is widely considered as the candidate fielded by a political group known as the Meghdad Circle, which has close ties with Raisi’s family. The group is led by Raisi’s son-in-law Meghdad Nili, and his very influential brother Meysam Nili, who is currently an adviser to the Culture and Islamic Guidance Minister.
The Nili brothers were among ardent supporters of the populist Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005 and 2009 elections but have since joined forces with the ultra-hardline Paydari Party, partly made up of former Ahmadinejad officials and supporters.
On Friday, the late President’s family hosted a religious event at a shrine in northern Tehran “with the presence” of Esmaili. Posting an image of the invitation poster, the prominent reformist commentator Abbas Abdi contended in a tweet that this could be taken as a signal of Esmaili’s endorsement by the family.
Esmaili, who is known for his rigidity in cultural matters such as cinema and theater, publishing and hijab, was promoted from obscurity to a ministerial position by Raisi after leading his campaign in 2021.
In 2016 Esmaili was sentenced to five years in prison for receiving bribes during his tenure as deputy governor of Esfahan Province as well 74 lashes and a three-year ban on government service.
Opponents and rivals say his appeal to then Chief Justice Sadegh Amoli-Larijani to order the case to be reviewed by the Supreme Court was declined. Ebrahim Raisi who was appointed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as Chief Justice in 2019, however, ordered the review which led to Esmaili’s acquittal. There are also claims that there are still some open cases against him.
“Presenting Esmaili as the symbol of Raisi’s government, with such a tarnished record, is a mockery of battle against corruption,” Abdolreza Davari, a former Ahmadinejad confidante, tweeted after the announcement of Esmaili’s candidacy last week.
Political opponents including his hardline rivals say he lacks the experience required for qualification as a presidential candidate compared to most other candidates who are current or former lawmakers or top former officials.
Photo attached to email - Esmaili was accompanied by Executive Vice-President Mohsen Mansouri at the time of his registration
Rumors had been in circulation in Iranian political circles since Wednesday that Esmaili and Mohsen Mansouri, executive vice-president in Raisi’s cabinet, had pressured cabinet officials to sign a letter to the Guardian Council to endorse Esmaili as a “notable government or religious figure”, as the Constitution requires from candidates, to prevent him from being disqualified by the election watchdog.
A leaked letter an image of which is widely circulating on social media indicates that at least sixteen cabinet ministers and officials had signed what they call “a testimony”. The authenticity of the letter was confirmed by the signatories’ condemnation of its revelation and threats of legal prosecution of those behind the leak.
The endorsement letter will put the election watchdog in a very difficult position as Esmaili’s approval, despite his lack of considerable executive experience and given his corruption record, can be interpreted as submission to pressure from the government.
Besides Executive Deputy Mansouri, Government Spokesman Ali Bahadori-Jahromi, Chief of the State Administrative Organization Meysam Lotfi, Vice-President in Women’s Affairs Ensieh Khazali, Minister of Oil Javad Owji, Minister of Communications Isa Zare’pour, Acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri-Kani, the signatures of nine others are included in the hand-written letter.
Acting President Mohammad Mokhber, the other four ministers who registered to vote as well as Minister of Interior Ahmad Vahidi and Minister of Intelligence Esmail Khatib whose ministries are directly involved in the elections, Minister of Defense Mohammadreza Ashtiani who is banned by law from interfering in politics, and Minister of Cultural Heritage Ezzatollah Zarghami have not signed Esmaili’s endorsement letter.
At 55, the anti-American ideologue and self-proclaimed revolutionary is seen by many as a potential replica of Ebrahim Raisi’s government.
The state-monitored Rouydad24 news outlet suggests that while his path to victory is complex, certain elements within Iran's political landscape could favor his potential to win the presidency.
Jalili, an ultraconservative close ally of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, belongs to the Principalist faction in Iranian politics, which emphasizes the principles of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Having run as a presidential candidate in the past, one of Jalili's official campaign slogans was “Great Jihad for Iran’s Leap Forward.”
He has held significant diplomatic and security roles within the Iranian government, serving as the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council from 2007 to 2013 and currently as a member of the Expediency Discernment Council.
Khamenei, who many experts assert virtually selected Raisi in 2021 despite the facade of elections, has maintained a favorable relationship with Jalili for many years.
Pointing to his inflexibility as Iran’s nuclear negotiator between 2007 and 2013, Rouydad24 notes that Jalili’s resistance to making concessions and his rigid approach resulted in multiple UN Security Council and IAEA Board of Governors resolutions against Iran. These resulted in international economic sanctions that began to unravel the relative stability of Iran's oil-dependent economy.
During his tenure as deputy foreign minister, several European diplomats described Jalili to Reuters as someone who strongly and unwaveringly expressed his views. One diplomat even remarked that Jalili "specialized in monologue" rather than engaging in debate.
His approach often frustrated diplomats, with then-Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs William Burns recounting an instance where Jalili engaged in nearly 40 minutes of philosophical discourse during a meeting, avoiding direct answers and complicating the negotiation process.
Yet, this firm stance on nuclear negotiations has shaped the perception of him as a figure who does not easily bend to Western pressures. It’s likely that certain factions, particularly hardline and conservative groups, may support him for his ideological purity and rigid approach to negotiations.
Rouydad24’s analysis of Jalili suggests that his resistance amid nuclear talks may have been part of a broader strategy by the regime to develop Iran's nuclear capabilities – while buying time.
Be that as it may, Jalili’s diplomatic style led some experts to conclude that he would not be a suitable candidate, if the regime wants to advance the state of its current foreign policy and improve relations with the West.
His main rival for the presidency may be Ali Larijani, a conservative and former parliamentary speaker. Some say the stage is set for a diplomatic dichotomy reminiscent of the 2013 election, where their contrasting approaches were already evident.
In 2022, according to some accounts, Jalili confronted Larijani over nuclear negotiations during a special meeting of the Expediency Council. Jalili reportedly proposed that Iran withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, a suggestion opposed by Larijani and others.
Rouydad24 analysis points out that in Iran's foreign policy, the true power lies with higher-level authorities who make the final decisions. This could be a reference to the Supreme Leader. The President and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs act as executors of these decisions. Despite this clear hierarchy, different administrations have managed to influence the decision-making process.
It’s unclear whether Jalili, a veteran of the Iran-Iraq war and former member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, would shift his stance on reaching a truce with Western powers.
Known for his strong “nationalistic” views and deep belief in the Islamic Republic’s moral and strategic success against perceived American aggression, Jalili has always taken a hardline approach. His track record suggests that as President, he would continue to emphasize resistance and minimal concessions, casting doubt on any potential move towards diplomatic compromise with the West.
It’s more likely that Khamenei will prefer to maintain the status quo, positioning Jalili as a convenient successor to Raisi.
"Iranians are grappling with unprecedented challenges as their currency faces massive devaluation, ranking among the world's least valuable, despite the nation's abundant natural resources, such as gas and oil," said the top religious leader of Iran’s largely Sunni Baluch population during his Friday prayer sermons in Zahedan, the provincial capital of Sistan-Baluchestan.
The statement comes amid upcoming snap presidential elections, called following the sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19. Mohammad Mokhber has since assumed the role of acting president.
The outspoken cleric emphasized the nation's desire for freedom and women's demand for equal rights, pointing to the failure of both "reformist" and conservative factions to fulfill these aspirations.
“Despite their promises, the previous administrations failed to deliver. Reformists also failed to bring about a meritocracy system,” he said. “We talked to the fundamentalists [conservatives] about national and regional problems, but they didn't show any real commitment to solving them.”
In his critique of past administrations, Abdolhamid highlighted their constrained authority, asserting that "affairs are overseen from elsewhere," likely referring to Supreme Leader Khamenei's ultimate control over decisions, and raised concerns regarding the state's transparency and accountability.
“The previous administration [under Hassan Rouhani] pledged to appoint 10 Sunni ambassadors, having received nominations from us for these positions. However, the Foreign Minister said that decision-making powers were not solely within their jurisdiction, and other institutions are involved in the decision-making,” Abdolhamid said.
Khamenei and his supporters have largely hesitated to acknowledge the economic strain on the country.
Pointing to the "weight of responsibilities" inherent in the role of president, the outspoken cleric questioned the candidates, asking if they have considered strategies to address the pressing issues facing the country, issues that have contributed to a rise in suicides.
Abdolhamid's views seem to align with many critics who consider the Iranian presidency to be more of a symbolic post. With significant decisions made at Khamenei's headquarters.
The incoming president, set to be elected by the end of June, faces the challenge of addressing escalating economic woes exacerbated by ongoing oil export and banking restrictions due to international sanctions. These sanctions primarily stem from Iran's advancing nuclear program and financial support for terrorist groups, like Hamas and Hezbollah.
