Iran International
Rising prices for essential goods, inflation above 73%, and a surging dollar amid a fragile “no war, no peace” environment, US naval pressure, and political divisions have heightened concerns among some officials about internal instability.
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned in a radio message on Wednesday that the United States had entered a new phase of the war to weaken Iran from within, or even make it collapse, through economic pressure, media campaigns, and a naval blockade.
Ghalibaf’s warning reflected a broader concern among political observers inside Iran that a prolonged naval blockade could impose escalating costs and, over time, prove more damaging than a direct military conflict.
Economic dissatisfaction is increasingly visible across media and social networks. Even before the recent conflict, rising economic pressures—reflected in the sharp increase in the dollar—had already driven days of protests and an exceptionally bloody crackdown in cities across the country. Those pressures have since intensified.
International affairs analyst Ali Bigdeli described the social climate in an interview with Khabar Online: “People are in an exhausting situation. At the societal level, signs of fatigue and restlessness are completely evident.”
He warned that a US naval blockade could be more dangerous than war itself and argued that authorities should move quickly toward negotiations with Washington, showing flexibility—even if that means temporarily halting parts of Iran’s nuclear program. “Ultimately, if no concessions are given to the United States, more complex internal social and political consequences may arise,” he added.
One reader commented: “I constantly have the feeling that people might pour into the streets soon—because of rising prices, internet shutdowns, and unemployment. Send this article to Mr. Ghalibaf so they move faster on reaching a deal; otherwise, things could turn.”
Risk of losing core supporters
Among government supporters, the current ceasefire period is described as a “war of resilience.” However, some warn that worsening economic conditions could erode the loyalty of core supporters—often referred to by conservatives as “The Street”—who backed the Islamic Republic during the conflict, while undecided “gray” segments of society may shift toward opposition.
Conservative figure Ali Gholhaki wrote that the war has entered a new phase, pointing to sharp increases in car prices, surging housing costs despite security risks, and rising currency and gold prices as signs of negative developments:
“The economic phase of the war is an essential part of the war itself. A new plan must be devised before the ‘street’ is lost!”
A user on X expressed similar concerns: “These days my fear is that the patience of the gray class will run out and, God forbid, we may experience another street conflict—even with revolutionary supporters present.”
Post-war economy under pressure
The fears are being amplified by a series of post-ceasefire indicators showing pressure spreading from prices and currency markets to employment.
According to the Statistical Center of Iran, the consumer price index rose 5% in Farvardin (March–April) compared to the previous month, reaching 73.5% year-on-year—over five percentage points higher than figures reported by the Central Bank of Iran earlier this week.
After a period of relative stability with the dollar below 1,600,000 rials, the exchange rate in the informal market rose to around 1,820,000 rials on April 30. While fears of renewed conflict played a role, rising inflation is also a key driver, analysts say.
Unemployment has surged sharply. A deputy labor minister said the 40-day war left 2 million people jobless. However, labor activist Hamid Haj Esmaeili estimates that including informal sectors and digital platforms, the real figure could be between 3 and 4 million.
The war has also disproportionately affected women’s employment. Zahra Behrouz Azar recently stated that nearly one-third of unemployment insurance claims filed over the past 40 days were submitted by women. Given their lower participation in formal employment, she described the figure as significant, noting it indicates a higher rate of women exiting the labor market—many of whom are heads of households.
According to new estimates by the International Monetary Fund, Iran’s economy is expected to contract by 6.1% due to the war, potentially leading to further unemployment and deepening poverty.
Expanding poverty and social risks
As inflation and unemployment rise, more Iranians are falling below the absolute poverty line. The head of Iran’s Welfare Organization reported in January that the population living in absolute poverty has doubled since 2018, reaching 44% (around 35 million people), with an additional 4 million experiencing extreme poverty.
Economic analyst Majid Goudarzi warned that if current trends continue, Iran could face “a combination of widespread unemployment, declining purchasing power, and rising poverty that will be very difficult to manage.”
Tehran’s unveiling of a towering statue depicting the Roman Emperor Valerian kneeling before pre-Islamic Persian King Shapur I has renewed criticism of the Islamic Republic’s appeal to nationalist sentiment following the June war with Israel.
For over forty years, the theocracy purged ancient Persian history from schoolbooks, replacing it with post-Islamic narratives. But after the 12-day conflict with Israel, officials have turned to the distant pre-Islamic past to rally a divided society.
From murals of ancient kings and soldiers to patriotic songs added to Shi’ite mourning ceremonies performed before Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Tehran now embraces imagery once deemed heretical by its own revolutionary ethos.
'Kneel before Iran' campaign
Tehran’s Revolution (Enghelab) Square was the scene of an unusual spectacle on Friday as officials unveiled a massive bronze statue depicting Roman Emperor Valerian kneeling in submission before Sassanid King Shapur I, commemorating Iran’s victory at the Battle of Edessa (260 AD).
The event was held under the slogan “Kneel before Iran,” part of what authorities describe as a campaign to project “national unity and historical pride” following the June war with Israel.
Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani, a staunch ultraconservative, said on X: “Enmity with Great Iran can only end in kneeling before this historic nation.”
Municipal official Davood Goodarzi said the installation would be accompanied by visual displays depicting “other victories of Iranians over foreign aggressors,” including the defeat of British forces by local commander Rais-Ali Delvari, Mirza Kuchak Khan’s resistance against Russian troops, and Surena’s triumph over Rome at the Battle of Carrhae in 53 BCE.
The goal, Goodarzi said, is “strengthening concepts such as national dignity, social unity, and Iranian identity.”
The statue, he said, would remain temporarily at Revolution Square before being moved to a city gateway “where it will stand as the first emblem of Iran before diplomats and foreign visitors.”
Unveiled women were allowed to attend the unveiling ceremony—an uncommon scene at events organized by Tehran’s ultra-hardline municipality.
The turn to the pre-Islamic past
The sharp reversal also recalls remarks once made by Khamenei. In a 2011 speech, he asserted that “all the great military victories of this nation came after Islam,” dismissing pre-Islamic accounts as “things that are not documented.”
In 1987, he had said that prophets triumphed over kings such as Cyrus and that “nothing remains of these monarchs in history but names remembered with derision.”
Nevertheless, pro-government social media accounts have now gone so far as to circulate posters equating Khamenei himself with Shapur, showing him standing with a staff as Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump kneel before him. The caption reads: “You will kneel before Iran.”
'Hypocrisy'
Pro-government figures have hailed the move as a patriotic success. Conservative political reporter Hossein Saremi posted: “Today’s grand Iranian gathering showed that people and the state share one essence: Iran itself. Nothing can take our homeland away.”
Others, however, called the spectacle “hypocrisy.” Journalist Gholamhossein Pashaei wrote on X: “Every year you close Pasargadae to stop people from celebrating Cyrus Day, yet you unveil Shapur’s statue in Enghelab Square with drums and fireworks during Fatimiyya (mourning period)!”
Dissident commentator Hamid Asafi called the ceremony “a perfect snapshot of the Islamic Republic’s contradictions.”
On Telegram he wrote: “A week ago they closed Cyrus’s tomb out of fear of the crowds, and now they glorify Shapur in the same breath. The Islamic Republic fears living history but poses for selfies with its corpse.”
He added: “They know people no longer respond to rosaries and sermons. That’s why they’ve brought history back to the stage—in a controlled costume. If they can’t erase the past, they’ll try to own it.”
The irony deepened as UNESCO formally recognized Cyrus’s Charter as one of the earliest human-rights documents.
President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on X: “Iran, the cradle of dialogue, justice, and coexistence, can still inspire peace today.”
Users swiftly replied, questioning how such pride could coexist with a government that blocks access to Cyrus’s tomb each year to those wishing to visit it on his birthday.