Iran Issues Warning To Neighbors As Nuclear Deal Seems Delayed
Tehran has issued a warning to regional countries about ties with Israel as signs emerged that a new nuclear deal might be delayed at least until November.
Tehran has issued a warning to regional countries about ties with Israel as signs emerged that a new nuclear deal might be delayed at least until November.
Chief of staff of the armed forces, Gen. Mohammad Bagheri issued a warning on Wednesday to regional countries hosting US troops and bases on social media, reported by the official government news website IRNA. He said that the “terrorist American armed forces” have reduced forces in the Persian Gulf and have relegated the defense of those dependent on it to “Zionist child-killer army” through CENTCOM.
Bagheri went on to say that Tehran has warned regional countries, meaning Persian Gulf Arab states, to cooperate with Iran for enhancing security, and has told them Iran will expand its air and naval presence and intensify military exercises, including drone and missile drills.
The warning came as indication s emerged that talks to restore the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran might not lead to any results before the US mid-term elections in November and perhaps beyond.
An Israeli media report appearing in Times of Israel on Wednesday said, “A new nuclear deal between Iran and world powers is off the table and will not be signed in the foreseeable future.”
According to the report, Israel’s Prime Minister Yair Lapid received this message from President Joe Biden and other officials in recent days.
If true, this indicates that a shift occurred in the Biden Administrations’ thinking about the 17-month long talks with Iran since it received the latest response from Tehran last week.
The European Union submitted a compromise text to Iran and the US on August 8, and the two sides responded with their suggestions. The contents were not made public, but the US called the last response from Iran “not constructive.”
Optimism in August that the two sides were inching toward an agreement somewhat dissipated when Iran began insisting on shelving a probe by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) into its pre-2003 undeclared nuclear activities. Tehran also intensified demands for “guarantees”, seemingly about lifting US sanctions and a commitment by Washington to be held responsible for leaving the agreement in the future.
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in a Tuesday briefing, "The US and its allies are equally preparing for scenarios with or without mutual return to full implementation of the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).”
“The US president will only conclude a deal that he determines is in the national security interests of the US," she noted, adding that the ultimate goal is to make sure Iran never acquires nuclear weapons.
Earlier in the day, Prime Minister Yair Lapid said Israel will continue to act in all areas against the revival of the Iran nuclear agreement and the threat posed by the Islamic Republic.
During a visit to Nevatim airbase in southern Israel, which houses the Israeli Air Force’s squadron of F-35 fighter jets, he said it is too soon to know if Israel has succeeded in thwarting the looming nuclear agreement with Iran.
An Al Jazeera TV reporter tweeted Tuesday that a senior E3 official told him, “because of the last Iranian response, there can be no return to the JCPOA before the mid-terms, but there will be no JCPOA to return to after the mid-terms.”
However, a schedule change in Israeli Mossad chief David Barnea’s visit to Washington announced Tuesday is hard to explain. A meeting with Congressional intelligence committees was cancelled while Barnea will only meet Biden administration officials.
The post which was published on Ali Khamenei’s Persian Instagram Monday was an excerpt from a speech in April 1990 in which he discussed the reasons for the decision of the second Shiite Imam, Hassan ibn Ali, for making peace with his enemy, the founder and first caliph of the Umayyad Caliphate, Muawiya after ten years of war.
“Imam Hassan’s act was based on a logical argument which could not be disobeyed,” he had said in his speech and stressed that no one, even the first Imam, Ali ibn Abi Talib, who had not compromised with Muawiya’s father Abu Sufyan, would have chosen to take a different path under the circumstances of the time.
He also argued that Imam Hassan had taken the decision together with his brother, Hussein ibn Ali, the third Imam, who was later killed in a war with Muawiya’s forces in Karbala in 680 AD. Unlike Imam Hassan, the third Imam, is well known in Shiite history for being uncompromising toward the enemy, the Umayyads.
Khamenei also used the phrase “heroic flexibility” in the context of Iran's relations with the outside world in a very high-profile speech in September 2013 to Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) commanders.
In his speech he stressed that he was not opposed to “proper political moves in diplomacy”. The phrase came from Iraqi Shia scholar Razi Ale Yasin’s book, Sulh-ul Hassan, which Khamenei translated into Persian under the title “Imam Hasan’s Peace: The most Magnificent Heroic Flexibility in History” in 1969.
Iranian Shiite clerics and officials often use references to the early Islamic history, particularly the life and actions of the prophet and the twelve Imams, as well as the Quran and other religious texts, when they discuss current affairs which requires interpretation of their statements.
“I believe in what was dubbed as ‘heroic flexibility’ many years ago [in the book],” Khamenei told the IRGC, adding that flexibility in certain circumstances could be positive and even required. He also argued that showing flexibility for “technical reasons,” while not forgetting “who the opponent and enemy is” can help a wrestler manoeuvre in his match to win, in the same way that the Imam's decision saved him and his followrs.
The media in Tehran have highlighted the Instagram post without any comments or interpretation on Tuesday, seeing its possible significance in the current political and international climate. But unlike 2013, when they immediately picked up the mention of “heroic flexibility” in the Leader’s speech and interpreted it as a sign of his consent to a nuclear deal, this time they have refrained from commenting.
Khamenei withheld his blessing to make a deal to restore the 2015 agreement between Iran and the world powers from the administration of President Hasan Rouhani, apparently fearing that credit for removal of US sanctions could help Rouhani and his allies to win in the June 2021 presidential elections against their hardliner rivals.
Rouhani has repeatedly claimed his government could have restored the deal if its path had not been blocked by powerful centres of power such as the hardline dominated parliament which passed legislation in December 2020 requiring the expansion of Iran’s nuclear program.