President’s Office Says Iran Stands Firm In Nuclear Talks
The political deputy in Iran’s presidential office wrote Wednesday that the United States had tempted previous president Hassan Rouhani by offering to delist the IRGC.
The political deputy in Iran’s presidential office wrote Wednesday that the United States had tempted previous president Hassan Rouhani by offering to delist the IRGC.
Mohammad Jamshidi tweeted that Washington believed the offer to remove the Guards (IRGC) from its list of ‘foreign terrorist organizations’ might draw Rouhani into talks over “regional issues” and Iran’s missile program. The centrist Rouhani left office in August 2021, succeeded by President Ebrahim Raisi, many of whose supporters are critics or opponents of the 2015 nuclear deal, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).
With the US and Iran inching closer together in talks to revive the JCPOA, Raisi may want to project any agreement as more favorable than anything Rouhani would have achieved.
In a briefing in Tehran last week, the outlines of which reached Iran International, Ali Bagheri Kani, Iran’s lead negotiator in nuclear talks, said Iran had rejected a US demand that Iran enter talks over its missile program and regional alliances.
‘Follow on’ talks?
The administration of President Joe Biden, while accepting the original logic of the JCPOA in detaching Iran’s nuclear program from other matters, has said it wants ‘follow on’ deal covering Iran’s missile development and links with groups the US deems ‘terrorists.’ As a candidate running against President Donald Trump, who left the JCPOA in 2018, Biden wrote an op-ed for CNN in 2020 saying the US would under his presidency rejoin the JCPOA “as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.”
While recent days have brought signs of Iran and the US bridging gaps over reviving the JCPOA, the greatest remaining challenge may be agreeing a way forward over the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) probe into unexplained uranium traces found in Iran by inspectors.
Mohammad Marandi, who has acted as a spokesman-cum-advisor for Iranian negotiators, tweeted Wednesday that “no deal will be implemented” unless the IAEA board of governors “permanently” closed these enquiries.
The US, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom in June successfully moved a resolution at the 35-member IAEA board criticizing Iran’s failure to satisfy the agency over the uranium traces, which relate to work carried out before 2003. The US and ‘E3’ argue, as does the IAEA chief Rafael Mariano Grossi, that the issue relates to Iran’s ‘safeguards’ commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and is separate from the JCPOA talks.
US: ‘Doing our homework’
Leading Iranian officials, including Raisi, have argued that Iran expects the probe to be dropped as part of restoring the JCPOA. They claim a precedent in the IAEA’s ‘final’ report on Iran’s pre-2003 nuclear work issued in December 2015, some months after the JCPOA was signed.
Marandi in his tweet also suggested he had said for “months” that Iran did not see IRGC delisting as a precondition for success in the talks. It was widely reported in June that Tehran had dropped the demand, which had apparently been raised on the grounds that the Trump administration had listed the IRGC as part of ‘maximum pressure’ after withdrawing the US from the JCPOA in 2018.
A US National Security Council spokesman said Monday that Washington, having received August 15 Iran’s response to European Union proposals on JCPOA revival, circulated August 8, was “currently doing our homework and will respond at an appropriate time and after our internal process is complete.” The spokesman said Washington was encouraged that “Iran appears to have dropped some of its non-starter demands, such as lifting the FTO designation of the IRGC.”
European Union officials called these ideas a “final text,” and then reacted with cautious optimism to an Iranian response made August 15.
Ned Price, the United States State Department Spokesman, referred Monday to the “latest versions of the text the EU had circulated,” suggesting the text had been amended. Price said the latest versions did not include the removal of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards from the US list of ‘foreign terrorist organizations.’ Tehran reportedly demanded earlier in talks the withdrawal of the designation, made by President Donald Trump in 2019 in the context of ‘maximum pressure’ introduced after the US left the nuclear deal in 2018.
As reported Tuesday, a senior US official told Reuters news agency Monday that Iran had now “basically dropped the main hang-ups to a deal.”
Crossing the Rubicon
“We think they have finally crossed the Rubicon and moved forward towards possibly getting back into the deal on terms that President [Joe] Biden can accept,” the official told Reuters. “If we are closer today, it’s because Iran has moved. They conceded on issues they have been holding onto from the beginning.”
The official added that the US was “studying” Iran’s response: “We’ll get back to them soon.”
While accusing Washington of delay since Tehran’s input August 15, Iranian officials have suggested the US has made significant concessions. This may help to placate less strident Iranian opponents of the 2015 deal, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).
Josep Borrell, the EU foreign policy chief, said Wednesday that while “most” countries agreed with the EU text, “I still don’t have the answer from the United States.”
The trickiest issue on which to agree wording over the text restoring the JCPOA may be enquiries by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) into uranium traces found in Iranian sites linked to pre-2003 work. While the agency would monitor a restored 2015 deal, it insists that its enquiry into the uranium relates to Tehran’s basic commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty rather than JCPOA.
Iran, on the other hand, has pointed to the precedent of 2015 when, shortly after the JCPOA was signed, the agency published a ‘final’ report on Tehran’s pre-2003 work. Iran argues the probe was revived only because of allegations made by Israel based on documents supposedly removed from Iran by Israeli agents.
‘Main obstacle’
Nour News, linked to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Tuesday objected to “political approaches” by IAEA chief Raphael Mariano Grossi, calling him the “main obstacle to the finalization of the Vienna talks, along with the Zionist regime.”
The quid pro quo of JCPOA restoration boils down to which US sanctions violate the agreement, and how Iran would return to JCPOA limits the nuclear activities it has expanded and refined since 2019. With both sanctions and nuclear work technical as well as political, gaps between Washington and Tehran have not been bridged in 16 months of talks, largely in Vienna between Iran and six world powers, and bilaterally between Iran and the US in Qatar in June.
A second US official quoted by Reuters said that under the American understanding of JCPOA restoration, limits on the Iranian nuclear program would extend to “at least six months” the ‘break out’ time required to assemble a crude weapon should Iran decide to do so.
While many Iranians including some lawmakers complain about growing poverty, officials such as IRGC Commander Hossein Salami insist that people's economic situation is satisfactory and "Iran can now send satellites to the space, crack atoms, use artificial intelligence and Quantum and Nano technologies and be a part of the digital age."
Meanwhile, information leaked from a meeting between chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri and Iranian reporters indicate that Iran's oil revenue may soon be doubled if a nuclear deal is reached, and Tehran can find access to billions of dollars of its frozen assets in other countries.
Nonetheless, Iran's former nuclear chief Fereidoun Abbasi who is a member of parliament (Majles) says Iranians should not expect a positive impact on their livelihoods if a nuclear agreement is reached with the United States and sanctions lifted.
Probably based on insider information, Abbasi told Entekhab news website that the agreement with the United States does not include a clause about easing Iran's international banking operations. That probably is the reason why he thinks the agreement will not be followed by an economic breakthrough.
Earlier, former government Spokesman Ali Rabiei, and centrist commentator Saeed Leylaz had pointed out that financial corruption could still adversely affect Iran’s economy even after an agreement. Meanwhile, Iranian social media users speculate that Iran might spend the lion's share of any financial windfall on strengthening its militant proxy groups in the region.
Abbasi also noted that even with an agreement at hand, international companies may still avoid coming and investing in Iran fearing another US unilateral withdrawal from the deal.
On Sunday, hardline cleric Hossein Ebrahimi, a member of Tehran's notorious right wing clerical association told the press, "An agreement will not solve our problems. The people of Iran should be patient and help the government to solve the country's economic problems."
He added, "Although a large part of sanctions against Iran will be lifted as a result of the agreement, it does not mean that life will be a rose garden for Iranian people from the morning after. Certainly, many problems will be solved, but many challenges will also remain."
Ebrahimi particularly pointed out that prices which have skyrocketed are not going to come down because of the agreement. Another cleric had said earlier on Sunday that many things may become available in the market, but still at a high price.
Iran is facing a 54-percent annual inflation rate and food prices have risen by more than 100 in the past year.
Meanwhile, in a report about the impact of an agreement on Iran's economy, Rouydad24 news website quoted economist Ehsan Soltani as saying that an agreement will not totally fix Iran's economy as there are many who benefit from the rising prices. He said those who benefit control the government and they are unlikely to allow the government to bring prices down.
Soltani said the Iranian government also benefits from the rise in prices as it collects inflation-induced tax from the lower and middle-classes.
Soltani also added that despite the probable real and psychological impact of an agreement, one should note that the main problem with the Iranian economy is financial corruption and the government inefficiency.