US Says Iran's Guards To Stay Sanctioned, But Questions Remain

The leaked report is from a closed-door briefing Ali Bagheri-Kani provided to journalists in Tehran in recent days.

The length and breadth of points mentioned by Iran’s chief negotiator show a multitude of concessions by the United States, but it does not include references to what Iran has agreed to do, to return to compliance with 2015 nuclear deal, the JCPOA.

On Thursday, Iran International received information circulating among Iranian hardliners about alleged "concessions" offered by the United States, but the original source was not identified.

According to detailed leaked information, Bagheri Kani mentioned the following “concessions” Iran was able to extract from the US.

1- The amount of natural uranium Iran receives from Russia must be double the amount of yellowcake it is obligated to hand over to Russia according to the JCPOA.

2- Issue of removing IRGC from the US list of Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) will be discussed in negotiations that will follow the revival of JCPOA.

3- However, the US guarantees that its sanctions against IRGC would not affect other sectors and firms: e.g. a petrochemical company shouldn't be sanctioned by US because of doing business with IRGC. In other words, the FTO designation will have mostly a “symbolic” value.

4- The US guarantees that its domestic laws like The Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) and Patriot Act would not impact implementation of its obligations under JCPOA. This claim by Bagheri-Kani can have serious legal implications, since both deal with financial and other illegal activities in arms proliferation and terrorism.

5- In addition to the United States abrogating three Executive Orders issued by former President Donald Trump, Iran has received concessions from US on two other Trump EOs which deal with sanctions on Iranian entities tightly linked to the state and its military and clandestine projects. Bagheri-Kani said during the briefing that Iran has not given any concessions in return for annulment of these Eos.

6- Upon Russia's proposal, the deal says, "the participants note the firm commitment of the US President (not mentioning Joe Biden by name) for returning to JCPOA compliance as long as Iran remains committed to the deal." Bagheri says this means the US president guarantees implementation of JCPOA (even though it's not binding for any of the two sides).

7- The UN Security Council’s snapback mechanism to be used in case of Iranian JCPOA violations can only be triggered based on an IAEA report. If one country triggers the mechanism unilaterally, other parties commit not to cooperate with it, and compensate the Iranian side.

8- The US guarantees that all foreign companies that would start working with Iran until the end of Joe Biden’s presidency, will remain exempted from possible reinstated US sanctions for 2.5 years after a US withdrawal. Bagheri- Kani explained that Iran demanded this clause in case if Republicans win the Whit House in 2024 and move to withdraw from the JCPOA. Although not binding once the US withdraws, but it would add more international political pressure on the United States.

9- US Secretary of State will publish a letter announcing the US participation in JCPOA.

10- In Doha talks in June, the US and EU accepted Iran's demand that the issue of IAEA probes are linked to JCPOA talks. Now the IAEA BoG is expected to end the the international nuclear watchdog’s probe into Iran’s past nuclear activites.

* Bagheri-Kani also claimed that he heard from Mora that Ulyanov had, in his talks with EU, expressed objection to closure of IAEA's Iran probe. But Bagheri says Mora must have been “lying” because Ulyanov always supported Iran's demand in his talks with the Iranian team.

11- Iran will release all US prisoners once the $7 billion worth of its assets frozen in South Korea are released. Bagheri said Iran and the US had earlier agreed on this, but US reneged on its promise, assuming that the money will give Iran financial breathing room to raise new demands.

According to Bagheri, Iran refused to accept the following US demands:

1- Discuss Iran’s missile program in parallel with the JCPOA talks. In fact, this was dropped during the first weeks of the Vienna talks in 2021 when the previous Iranian administration was conducting the negotiations.

2- Discuss Iran’s regional policies and actions, which the US still insists on and might be tied to future talks on lifting the IRGC sanctions – if any such talks take place.

3- Discuss limiting Iran’s nuclear breakout time.

4- Destruction of Iran's uranium enrichment centrifuges. Bagheri-Kani said that the other side wanted Iran to destroy its IR-6 advanced centrifuges (around 100 machines), but they finally agreed that Iran keeps the machines in a warehouse under IAEA's watch.

5- Destruction of concrete platforms of for these and possibly other centrifuges.

6- A promise by the two countries' foreign ministry spokespersons that Iran and the US will not anymore seek to kill citizens of the other side. Iran refused to accept this, even though US law enforcement agencies say the Islamic Republic launched plots to kill former Trump administration officials on US soil.

Bagheri-Kani at one point also said that Iran used smart tactics to win points. One example was disregarding around 11 deadlines set by the West, and on one occasion dismissiing US Special Envoy Rob Malley's threat to leave Vienna, saying that in the end Malley stayed.

It is not clear if leaking the information from Bagheri-Kani’s alleged media briefing was an intentional act by Tehran.

What he claimed in the briefing could still damage the outcome of the talks, and it is possible the victorious claims were intended for domestic consumption, once media in Iran is allowed to publish them.

According to Alireza Pakfetrat, the representative of Shiraz in the parliament, the number of passenger planes that remain operational have decreased as well as the number of flights in the country. 

He added that the quality and technical upkeep of the aircraft have also suffered significantly, causing flight delays. 

Criticizing Roads and Urban Development Ministry, he said it is spending most of its time and budget on housing projects and forgets that the aviation industry is also part of their responsibilities. 

He also proposed splitting the ministry in two: one for urban development and one for road and transportation, which was the case in the past.

According to Alireza Barkhor, the deputy chairman of the Association of Iranian Airlines, more than 50 percent of Iran’s passenger planes are grounded due to lack of spare parts, particularly engines.

Iran has suffered from shortages of civilian airliners since the 1990s and used a variety of ways to lease older planes or buy spare parts through intermediaries, but the technical state of its fleet has been deteriorating.

The 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA) suspended sanctions on purchases of Western aircraft and Iran began talks to buy new planes from Boeing and Airbus. A few airbus planes were delivered but the Trump administration never approved sale of US planes until Washington withdrew from the JCPOA in May 2018 and reimposed sanctions.

The Solidify Iran Sanctions Act 2022 – brought forward by senators Tim Scott (R-SC), Maggie Hassan (D-NH), Bill Hagerty (R-TN), and Jacky Rosen (D-NV) ­– would abolish the ‘sunset’ clauses in the 1996 Iran Sanctions Act (ISA) set to expire 2026.

The ISA, originally the Iran and Libya Sanctions Act, first aimed at thwarting Iran’s attempts to develop its energy sector but was most significant in developing ‘third party’ sanctions. The ISA laid out ‘triggers’ that would allow the president to take punitive action against third parties dealing with Iran.

The ‘triggers,’ amended and extended by later laws, included annual investment over $20 million, constructing pipelines, specified weapons sales, sales of gasoline to Iran, transporting or buying Iranian crude, and dealing with named Iranian bodies including the National Iranian Oil Company and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

Most ISA provisions were suspended when the US in 2015 agreed with Iran and five other world powers the Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), under which Tehran accepted limitations on its nuclear program linked to intrusive inspections in return for eased international sanctions.

But these provisions were reapplied when President Donald Trump in 2018 withdrew the US from the JCPOA and imposed ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions.In October 2018, the Trump administration withdrew from the 1955 Iran-US Friendship Treaty after the International Court of Justice ruled aspects of ‘maximum pressure’ violated the treaty, and in 2019 the US threatened to punish any European companies trading with Iran through Instex, the special purpose vehicle set up to sidestep US sanctions.

The new US legislation has been introduced as 16-month talks with Iran and world powers to revive the JCPOA are currently focused on Iran’s response to a European Union text circulated August 8. While the talks have been treated largely as confidential by all parties, some of the trickiest issues reportedly concern the extent and application of US sanctions.

Sanctions guarantees

One of the major stumbling blocks remaining to JCPOA renewal is reportedly Iran’s demands for ‘guarantees’ over the US implementing the agreement should be it be revived. Tehran is seeking cushions, both over sanctions and in its nuclear program, against the US once again leaving the 2015 agreement.

The practical effect of the proposed legislation would be not so much on US policy, where implementation rests primarily with the president, but on keeping the sanctions infrastructure indefinitely in place and therefore readily revived.

“The United States, Israel, and our Arab partners remain concerned about the looming threat that a nuclear Iran poses to the stability of the region,” said Scott. “US sanctions are a necessary deterrent for this dangerous and unstable regime, which is why my bill will make the cornerstone of sanctions on Iran permanent.” The legislation is supported by lobbyists American Israeli Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).

Iran's oil and natural gas production have fallen behind in investments and as a result they are unable to extract higher amounts of energy despite the country's vast reserves. Iran has failed to appropriate sufficient funds and has lacked Western technology for boosting production as oil and gas fields produce less over time.

Iran's oil minister Javad Owji has said that the country needs $160 billion dollars for immediate investments while it has lost hundreds of billions in the past 12 years because of international and US sanctions.

According to Yonhap, South Korea's vice foreign minister Cho Hyun-dong held back-to-back separate phone calls Friday with US special envoy for Iran Robert Malley and EU coordinator Enrique Mora to share the latest progress in negotiations to revive the JCPOA nuclear accord. 

During the phone talks, Cho reaffirmed Seoul's support for restoring the agreement and expressed hope that a deal could help resolve South Korea's pending issues related to Iran.

Bilateral relations between Seoul and Teheran remain frayed after two South Korean banks locked $7-9 billion of Iranian funds owed for oil imports because of US banking sanctions, which were reimposed after former President Donald Trump in 2018 withdrew from the deal.

Iran, which sits on the world's fourth-largest oil reserves, was a key oil supplier to South Korea, and a main importer of goods such as industrial equipment, household appliances and vehicle parts.

Seoul stopped purchasing Iranian oil in May 2019 due to sanctions that banned the Islamic republic's oil exports.

In response to a question about a report that the EU-proposed text of the agreement goes beyond the redlines of the Biden administration, Price said on Thursday that “it is no question that we have tactical differences with our Israeli partners when it comes to this question, the JCPOA. There is also no question that when it comes to the strategic objective, the overarching objective, we see entirely eye to eye.” Axios had reported that the Israeli prime minister sent a message to the White House saying the Biden administration should walk away from the deal. 

“We are aligned. We are aligned in the firm belief that Iran must never be allowed to acquire or possess a nuclear weapon,” he said, noting that “We happen to believe that diplomacy... centered around a potential mutual return to compliance with the JCPOA is the most effective means by which... to once again see to it that Iran is subject to permanent and verifiable limits on its nuclear program as well as to the most stringent verification and monitoring regime ever negotiated.”

Price reiterated that if Tehran and Washington can return to compliance with the JCPOA, Iran will not be in a position to acquire a nuclear weapon, adding that US and Israel “see eye to eye on this overarching priority of ensuring that Iran can never acquire a nuclear weapon.”