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INSIGHT

Iran’s warnings give way to action as US launches Hormuz 'escort' plan

Maryam Sinaiee
Maryam Sinaiee

Iran International

May 4, 2026, 22:46 GMT+1
An Iranian soldier stands near military equipment at an undisclosed location, May 2026
An Iranian soldier stands near military equipment at an undisclosed location, May 2026

Iran has paired a sharp escalation on the water with increasingly explicit threats, signaling what appears to be a deliberate move to deter further US attempts to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Missile and drone activity reported around the Strait and in the United Arab Emirates on Monday—alongside disputed encounters at sea—suggest Tehran is beginning to act on warnings it had issued only hours earlier.

But the more revealing shift may be in tone.

Iranian military and affiliated voices have moved quickly to frame the moment not as a clash, but as enforcement.

“The Strait of Hormuz is entirely under Iranian control,” a senior Iranian source said, according to Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Mayadeen. “The message to the American aggressors is: Advance, and you will be targeted.”

‘Asymmetric operations’

That message builds on earlier warnings from senior commanders that any transit not coordinated with Iranian forces could be treated as a threat.

Ali-Akbar Ahmadian, a member of Iran’s Defense Council, pushed the line further, warning that any US action targeting shipping or energy infrastructure would be met with the Islamic Republic’s “asymmetric operations.”

The statements point to a posture that is no longer simply declaratory, but increasingly operational, especially against the backdrop of state-linked rhetoric in the hours before the incidents..

One day before the reported attacks in the UAE, Iranian state television accused Abu Dhabi of involvement in strikes on Iran’s Siri and Lavan islands during the US-led war, claiming Emirati Mirage jets, Wing Loong drones and unmarked F-16s had taken part.

The claims—unverified but widely circulated in Iranian media—help set the stage for a narrative in which regional actors are treated not as bystanders but as participants, and therefore legitimate targets.

That framing was reinforced after the incidents. Regional authorities reported missile and drone launches toward the UAE, while Iranian media attributed damage at energy facilities in Fujairah to what it described as US “military adventurism,” denying any pre-planned Iranian attack.

‘Ships are moving’

At sea, accounts have diverged sharply but point to the same underlying reality: rising friction around attempts to move vessels through the Strait.

US officials said commercial ships had transited and that Iranian threats had been contained. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, however, denied that any passage had taken place and warned that “violating vessels” would be stopped.

Iranian media reported that ships attempting to cross were forced to turn back, while Washington rejected claims that its naval forces had been pushed out of the area.

US President Donald Trump, for his part, stopped short of declaring the ceasefire violated.

“(It was) not heavy firing,” he said in a phone interview, adding that “ships are moving” and that reports of recent exchanges were still being assessed.

The combination of rhetoric, incidents and competing claims suggests Tehran is seeking to impose a new reality in the Strait—one in which access is conditional and enforced.

Political figures have echoed that direction, pointing to efforts to formalize new rules governing transit and warning that any US role in shaping maritime access would be treated as a violation of ceasefire terms.

For now, the message from Tehran appears consistent: movement through the Strait will not be uncontested, and any attempt to bypass Iranian control risks drawing a response.

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Trump wants deal soon or may bomb Iran - Axios

May 4, 2026, 11:40 GMT+1

US President Donald Trump could pursue major military action against Iran if talks do not soon produce the outlines of an achievable deal, Axios reported on Monday, citing a senior US official.

“It’s either we’re looking at the real contours of an achievable deal soon, or he's going to bomb the hell out of them,” the official said.

The report said Trump wants pressure on Iran while keeping diplomatic channels open.

Trump’s envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are still exchanging proposals with Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, it said, citing officials.

A senior US official said the two sides remain far apart.

“There are talks. There are offers. We don't like theirs. They don't like ours,” the official said.

One source described Trump’s Project Freedom to help guide stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz as “the beginning of a process that could lead to a confrontation with the Iranians.”

According to the United States Central Command, military support to Project Freedom will include guided-missile destroyers, drones, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft and 15,000 troops.

War shadow lays bare divisions among Iran’s clerics

May 4, 2026, 01:25 GMT+1

The war with the United States and Israel has exposed unusually open divisions within Iran’s clerical establishment, with hardline calls for escalation clashing with warnings over the cost of continued conflict.

Hardline cleric and MP Mahmoud Nabavian said Iran would escalate sharply if attacked again.

“If the United States launches another attack, Iran would strike residential areas housing kings and heads of state in Arab countries” south of the Persian Gulf, he said, while also urging President Donald Trump to “admit defeat.”

In contrast, liberal cleric and human-rights lawyer Mohsen Rohami argued that those opposing negotiations with Washington should be held accountable for the human and material toll of the war.

Read the full article here.

War shadow lays bare divisions among Iran’s clerics

May 3, 2026, 22:22 GMT+1
•
Behrouz Turani

The war with the United States and Israel has exposed unusually open divisions within Iran’s clerical establishment, with hardline calls for escalation clashing with warnings over the cost of continued conflict.

Proposals aimed at de-escalation have been exchanged in recent weeks, according to officials on both sides, but the gap between Washington and Tehran remains wide, with core disagreements unresolved.

Hardline cleric and MP Mahmoud Nabavian said Iran would escalate sharply if attacked again.

“If the United States launches another attack, Iran would strike residential areas housing kings and heads of state in Arab countries” south of the Persian Gulf, he said, while also urging President Donald Trump to “admit defeat.”

In contrast, liberal cleric and human-rights lawyer Mohsen Rohami argued that those opposing negotiations with Washington should be held accountable for the human and material toll of the war.

While ultraconservatives insist Iran must not negotiate, Rohami said “people in the streets of Iran are not opposed to negotiations,” casting diplomacy as both a public demand and a strategic necessity at a time when the costs of war are mounting.

The divide extends beyond the clergy. Hardline MP Ali Khezrian said Iran “will certainly support the war” and has chosen to halt talks with Washington, adding that even indirect messaging through media or intermediaries should stop.

Rohami pushed back, warning lawmakers against presenting personal views as state policy. Decisions on negotiations, he said, rest with Iran’s leadership and are coordinated through the Supreme National Security Council and senior state bodies.

“The decision to negotiate is supported by the nation,” he said in remarks to Khabar Online.

He described Iran’s military actions as defensive but warned that the damage from a prolonged conflict could take years to repair. Steel plants, refineries and major electricity and gas infrastructure have been hit, he said, adding that much of Iran’s industrial base was built over the past century.

“Peace is the norm, and war is the exception,” Rohami said, cautioning that public mobilization in support of the state cannot be sustained indefinitely. “Their presence does not mean they oppose negotiations or agreements.”

A separate commentary on the Asr Iran website identified four “strategic mistakes” by hardliners, including underestimating US and Israeli power and focusing on the enemy’s losses rather than Iran’s own costs.

It also warned against portraying Western adversaries as internally collapsing, arguing that political divisions in democracies tend to narrow in wartime.

If such miscalculations shape decision-making, the commentary said, Iran risks losing both its current position and its chance to bring the conflict to a favorable end..

Iran's Hormuz toll plan bars Israeli ships, sets terms for US and allies

May 2, 2026, 18:50 GMT+1

Iranian lawmakers say Israeli vessels will be permanently barred from the Strait of Hormuz and ships from the United States and its allies would be allowed through only if they pay war reparations, under a proposed plan to place the waterway under Iranian “management.”

Ali Nikzad, the first deputy speaker of Iran’s parliament, said during a visit by members of parliament’s Construction Commission to Bandar Abbas that the 12-point plan would deny passage to Israeli ships “at any time.”

He said vessels belonging to “hostile countries” would also be barred from crossing the strait unless they first paid compensation for damage caused during the war.

He did not name any country other than Israel, but Iranian officials have used similar language in the past to describe the United States and some of its Arab allies in the Middle East as hostile states.

Two months into the US-led war with Iran, the vital waterway remains closed, choking off 20% of the ‌world's oil and gas supplies. The strait was effectively closed after Iran started launching retaliatory strikes against its Arab neighbors in the Persian Gulf.

Since April 13, the United States has also imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports, further restricting traffic through the strait with the aim of preventing Tehran from turning the waterway into a source of leverage or revenue.

Terms for non-hostile countries

Under the toll plan being reviewed by the parliament, other ships would be required to obtain permission from Iran before passing through Hormuz, Nikzad said.

He added that the measure would be adopted in line with international law and the rights of Iran’s neighbors, while insisting that Tehran would not return the strait to its pre-war status.

“We will not give up our rights in the Strait of Hormuz, and the movement of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz will not be the same as before the third imposed war,” he said.

He described Iran’s proposed new control over Hormuz as comparable in importance to the nationalization of the oil industry in 1951.

Mohammadreza Rezaei, head of parliament’s Construction Commission, said all ships applying for permission to pass through the strait would be required to use the name “Persian Gulf.”

He said 30% of the revenue collected from ships would be allocated to strengthening military infrastructure, while 70% would go to economic development and public welfare.

“Managing the Strait of Hormuz is more important than acquiring nuclear weapons,” Rezaei said.

While Tehran hopes its new toll system will compensate for part of the heavy damage caused by the US-led war, Washington has warned that companies and governments paying Iranian-imposed tolls could face sanctions.

Iran cuts oil output as US blockade strains storage - BBG

May 2, 2026, 14:51 GMT+1

Iran has begun curbing oil production as the US naval blockade tightens around its oil trade, with exports plunging, storage filling and tankers gathering near the country’s main export hub, Bloomberg reported.

The blockade, which took effect on April 13, has left Tehran trying to manage a pressure campaign aimed at its most important source of revenue. Bloomberg said the war has entered a stalemate, with Washington betting that lost oil revenue will force Iran to yield and Tehran betting it can outlast the economic pain and keep global energy prices elevated.

A senior Iranian official told Bloomberg that Tehran is proactively reducing crude output to stay ahead of storage limits rather than waiting for tanks to fill completely. The official said the move could affect as much as 30% of Iran’s oil reservoirs, but argued the risks were manageable because Iranian engineers have years of experience idling and restarting wells under sanctions.

“We have enough expertise and experience,” said Hamid Hosseini, a spokesman for the Iranian Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Association. “We’re not worried.”

Bloomberg said Iran’s oil sector had remained resilient before the blockade, producing about 3.2 million barrels a day in March, with exports close to prewar levels. But the current blockade is different from earlier sanctions pressure because the US is physically trying to block waters around the Strait of Hormuz, stranding tens of millions of barrels at sea.

Since the blockade began, Iran has increasingly turned to floating storage. Bloomberg said aging and in some cases derelict tankers have gathered near Kharg Island, Iran’s main export terminal in the Persian Gulf.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this week that Kharg Island was “soon nearing capacity,” warning that the pressure could cost Iran about $170 million a day in lost revenue and force Tehran toward negotiations.

“It looks like there’s been a significant slowdown in production,” Antoine Halff, co-founder and chief analyst at Kayrros, said on a conference call. “There is stress in the system.”

If storage fills completely, Iran would have little choice but to cut production by the amount it can no longer export. Based on prewar domestic consumption of about 2 million barrels a day, Bloomberg said that could leave fields operating at roughly half their potential.

Iran could try to move some oil overland to Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Uzbekistan, Hosseini said, but he put that capacity at only 250,000 to 300,000 barrels a day.

Other options, including rail shipments of some oil products to China, may be difficult and less economical. Bloomberg added that Chinese “teapot” refineries rely on discounted crude and thin margins, while the U. Treasury has also imposed new sanctions on individuals and networks tied to Iran’s “shadow banking” system, including buyers linked to those refineries.

Analysts said Iran still has tools to keep parts of the system running. Vortexa estimates Iran has access to 65 million to 75 million barrels of floating storage capacity, equivalent to roughly 37 very large crude carriers, both inside and outside the blockade.

That capacity may buy Tehran time, but how much depends on how strictly the US enforces the blockade.

Claire Jungman, director of maritime risk and intelligence at Vortexa, told Bloomberg that Iran’s use of floating storage, ship-to-ship transfers and older tankers means its system has not fully broken.

“This allows flows to continue in the near term, even under tighter enforcement,” she said. “We would frame this as a constrained but functioning system, rather than a full disruption.”