Iran’s economy slipped back into contraction in the first half of the current year as inflation accelerated and the rial sank to record lows, compounding the pressure on President Masoud Pezeshkian as his government seeks approval for a tight budget starting on March 21.
Fresh central bank data showed gross domestic product shrank by 0.6% including oil and by 0.8% excluding oil in the first six months of the year 1404 (started on March 21), reflecting weak demand, falling investment and heightened uncertainty across the real economy, Tasnim reported.
The downturn came despite modest growth in the oil sector, which expanded by 1.1% but failed to offset deeper declines elsewhere.
Agriculture contracted by 2.9% and industry and mining by 3.4%, while construction suffered a sharp 12.9% slump, the central bank said, pointing to a deepening recession in a sector that is a key engine of employment and related industries.
At the same time, inflation pressures intensified. The statistics center said point-to-point inflation rose to 52.6% in the month to late December, up 3.2 percentage points from the previous month, while average annual inflation climbed to 42.2%.
Food inflation was far higher, with prices of food, beverages and tobacco up 72% year-on-year, compared with 43% for non-food goods and services. Monthly inflation reached 4.2%, led by sharp increases in staples such as dairy and bread.
The deteriorating data frame a contentious budget debate in parliament, where Pezeshkian has warned that the state lacks the resources to cushion households fully from price rises.
“They tell me to raise wages, but someone should tell me where the money is supposed to come from,” he told lawmakers while defending the draft budget, which proposes a 20% public-sector pay increase – well below inflation – alongside broader tax exemptions.
Pezeshkian has said the priority is to prevent a deficit-fueled surge in prices by restraining spending growth and tightening fiscal discipline.
“An orderly budget without a deficit reduces the fire of inflation and can contain price rises to some extent,” he said, adding that the government would expand tax exemptions and roll out targeted subsidies to protect low-income households.
Parliamentary leaders and lawmakers from across factions have pushed back, arguing the budget risks aggravating inflation and living costs.
Some lawmakers have been more blunt. “The 1405 budget has an inflationary nature,” said Hossein Samasami, a member of parliament’s economic committee. “Budget decisions are among the most important drivers of prices and inflation, and ignoring their impact directly weakens purchasing power.”
Volatility in the currency market has added to the pressure. The rial has fallen sharply in recent weeks, fueling gains in gold and hard assets as households seek protection from inflation.
Guards-linked Tasnim news agency said in an analysis on Sunday that the dollar had become “a symbol of lost confidence,” criticizing what it described as inaction by the government and central bank as expectations worsened.
Markets have continued to test policy credibility. On Sunday, the rial weakened to a new record low of about 1,420,000 per dollar.
