Broken machine: why Tehran’s food distribution plan won’t move the needle

Signs from within Ghalibaf’s own camp — the self-described “neocons” — indicate he is also positioning himself for a major elevation.

The clearest indication came on October 22, when Tourism Minister Reza Salhi Amiri asserted that Ghalibaf was tasked by Khamenei to lead the war effort after Israel killed several top commanders on day one of the 12-day war in June.

The account has not been rejected by Khamenei’s office and was echoed by outlets linked to the Intelligence Ministry, including Mashregh News and Tabnak, run by former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Mohsen Rezaei.

Ghalibaf later confirmed in a YouTube interview that he coordinated military operations during the conflict, keeping a low profile to avoid Israeli targeting while meeting key figures in person.

That would suggest he was one of the few individuals with direct access to Khamenei throughout the war.

Supporters network

Since then, Iranian media have increasingly referred to Khorassan newspaper—funded and run under Khamenei’s office—as Ghalibaf’s outlet, with the paper heavily promoting his role in state affairs despite its earlier acknowledgment of parliament’s declining relevance.

Meanwhile, a coordinated social-media network calling itself “The Official Network of Ghalibaf’s Supporters” has swung into action.

The accounts promote his every appearance and cast him as a national leader rather than a parliamentary figure, crediting him for reviving the long-stalled Coupon Project for distributing essential goods or for pushing the idea of converting an old Tehran prison into a museum.

Supporter accounts have simultaneously attacked former President Hassan Rouhani for allegedly trying to tarnish Ghalibaf’s image, reviving debate-stage accusations that his campaigns took money from drug traffickers.

Other posts highlight Ghalibaf’s foreign travels, including his trip to Pakistan and meeting with prime minister Shahbaz Sharif on Friday November 7th.

Critics often ridicule Ghalibaf’s missteps, but they rarely note his credentials: he holds a legitimate university degree in political geography, is licensed to fly passenger aircraft, and has served as Tehran’s Police Chief and Commander of the IRGC Air Force.

In recent months, he has aligned himself rhetorically with hardline conservatives on issues such as censorship and hijab enforcement, while distancing himself from such initiatives once they become unpopular—a maneuver typical of politicians seeking higher office.

Tehran tenants ended the Iranian month of Mehr (late September to late October) facing a 34 percent year-on-year jump in rental prices, according to data from the Statistical Center of Iran cited by Khabar Online.

The government’s promised measures to regulate the housing market, the report said, have failed to materialize, with renters still squeezed by weak supply and spillover demand from the unaffordable homeownership market.

In major cities such as Tehran, typical monthly rents for standard apartments range from around $400 to $1,800, depending on location and quality.

On a broader national average basis, one-bedroom urban rentals are reported at approximately $250-$300 per month. However, the average monthly net salary is around $200.

While officials have highlighted a minor decline in the overall pace of housing inflation, figures published by the center confirmed rents continue to surge. Monthly housing inflation stood at three percent in late October, year-on-year housing inflation at 34.2 percent, and the annual rate at 36.6 percent -- only slightly below September’s 37.5 percent.

The outlet Tabnak reported that despite the withdrawal of genuine buyers, prices rose another three percent during the period, widening what it called the gap between “the expectation to sell high and the buyer’s zero purchasing power.” A 36.6 percent annual inflation rate, it added, compared with stagnant wages, has pushed first-time buyers out of reach of homeownership.

With both housing and rental prices rising together, accommodation costs now absorb a growing share of household income, fueling urban sprawl and eroding living standards.

The depreciation of the rial -- now trading around 1.08 million per dollar -- has intensified broader economic strains, which analysts link to renewed pressure following the reactivation of UN sanctions under the snapback mechanism.

For hardline supporters of the Shi'ite theocracy, his faith was a welcome slap to a US establishment seen as implacably hostile. To their critics, Mamdani's win highlights everything the Iranian system resists: youth, pluralism and the power of the vote.

The conservative daily Hamshahri, published by Tehran’s municipality, splashed "America Against America" on its front page, interpreting Mamdani's victory as a proof of the US enemy's internal divides.

Tehran lawmaker Abolghasem Jarareh declared in parliament: “Zohran Mamdani’s victory shows the strength of the slogan ‘Death to Israel!’”

Without elaborating, he then joined fellow lawmakers in chanting the slogan on the floor of parliament, a regular practice among arch-conservatives.

Abdolmotahhar Mohammadi, spokesperson for Tehran’s mayor, wrote on X: “The clear message of Zohran Mamdani’s election … is that the people of New York reject the influence of a genocidal regime in US governance,” adding that Iran “welcomes any strengthening of anti-racist and pro-Palestine discourse anywhere in the world.”

Gaza and Israel

Mamdani's platform emphasized affordable housing, police reform and Palestinian solidarity, earning him strong backing from progressives and Muslim organizations.

Early in his campaign he faced criticism for using the phrase "globalize the intifada" and has since distanced himself from the slogan. Mamdani has repeatedly called Israel's incursion into Gaza a genocide but has spoken out against anti-Semitism.

In an interview, he cited his Shi'ite Muslim faith as an important inspiration.

"To stand up for justice, to stand up for that which is right often means doing something difficult. Imam Hossein's, peace be upon him, conviction in spite of the odds is something that inspires me."

Mamdani has hit out at what he has called Islamophobia in the wake of the 9/11 attacks but has not cited Islam as a basis of his political outlook.

Still, Tehran University academic and idealogue Foad Izadi called Mamdani’s victory “the arrival of the message of 13 Aban in New York.”

He was referring to the Persian calendar commemoration of the 1979 storming of the US embassy by revolutionary students and the hostage-taking of staff there which permanently soured relations.

The date is now celebrated annually in Iran as a focal point of state-sponsored hostility toward Washington.

Free elections vs. clerical vetting

Middle East analyst Mostafa Najafi criticized the hardliners in a social media commentary titled “America’s self-healing system or the message of 13 Aban in New York?”

“Lacking a realistic understanding of the inner workings of power in the United States, some in Iran keep insisting that the country is on the verge of collapse or regime change,” he wrote.

Many critical voices drew sharp comparisons between America’s open elections and Iran’s heavily restricted political system, where supervisory bodies often whittle down lists of eligible candidates.

“Mamdani’s victory shows that despite 46 years of propaganda against America, it is democracy and the rule of law — not the will of the president who is the top official of the system — that prevail there,” prominent commentator Sadegh Zibakalam posted on X.

The veteran analyst was alluding to the limitless authority of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran's ultimate decision-maker in all matters, including elections.

Conservative commentator Abdolreza Davari also wrote on X: “Mamdani’s rise in New York … is proof of people’s sovereignty and modern civilization. The roots of America’s global leadership lie in this very expression of the people’s will.”

“In our ‘religious democracy,’ the Guardian Council bars a Zoroastrian from city council because of his faith. But in ‘American liberal democracy,’ a socialist Muslim anti-Zionist can become mayor of New York,” Davari wrote in another post.

He was referring to Sepanta Niknam, a Zoroastrian elected to Yazd’s city council in 2013.

After winning re-election in 2017, a defeated candidate challenged his eligibility because of his religion. Although Zoroastrianism is a recognized religion under Iran’s constitution, Niknam was barred from taking his seat for over a year.

While he was eventually allowed to return, his candidacy for future elections was ultimately disqualified, making the case a symbol of theocratic discrimination.

'Masterclass in democracy'

Prominent jurist Mohsen Borhani called Mamdani’s win “a masterclass in democracy, rule of law and respect for citizens’ choices,” urging Iran’s Guardian Council, which oversees the approval of presidential candidates, to “learn from it.”

The rise of Mamdani, 34, also reignited Iran’s long-standing debate over youth exclusion from politics, even among conservatives.

Khamenei is 86, Guardian Council chairman Ali Jannati is 98 and President Masoud Pezeshkian is 71.

“If this young man from New York ran for office here, would the Guardian Council even approve his qualifications?” conservative activist Vahid Ashtari asked bluntly,

“In Iran, our elections are always between the same figures," he added. "Could any thirtysomething even imagine becoming mayor of the capital?”

The capital’s main reservoirs, including the Amir Kabir (Karaj) Dam, now hold less than 15 million cubic meters of water -- enough for less than two weeks of supply, authorities said.

Officials described Tehran’s surface water reserves as being in a “red and fragile” state, with no rainfall recorded since the start of the new water year in late September. 

“The reservoirs supplying Tehran are now at their lowest levels in 60 years, a situation we have never experienced before. Surface water resources are in a red and extremely fragile state,” said Mohsen Ardakani, head of Tehran’s Water and Wastewater Company.

“We are in a highly sensitive and risky phase,” Ardakani said. “Only through collective cooperation and at least 10 percent additional savings in water consumption can we prevent the capital from entering a state of absolute crisis.”

In Mashhad, officials said plans for regional water rationing were under review after many emergency wells ran dry. 

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  Iran says 67% of dams empty as autumn rains fail, capital braces for rationing

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  When water becomes a security threat

The city’s governor, Hassan Hosseini, said on Thursday that nighttime water cuts were also being considered and that completing ongoing transfer projects, such as the pipeline from the Hezar Masjed Mountains, required urgent funding of 50 trillion rials – about $46 million. 

In central Iran, Isfahan city council head Mohammad Noursalehi warned late last month that the region could face a drinking water crisis “within 45 days” unless non-potable uses are curtailed and delayed transfer projects are completed. 

The Zayandehrud Dam, which supplies over five million people in Isfahan and neighboring provinces, is at 13% capacity, raising concerns about both water shortages and land subsidence across the historic city.

Environmental experts say years of over-extraction, unscientific dam-building and poor management have pushed the country toward what some describe as “water bankruptcy.”

The meteorological organization forecasts no significant rainfall for the rest of November, leaving officials bracing for one of the most severe water crises Iran has faced in more than half a century.

“The government, which has grown large and costly over the years, has placed much of the inflation burden on the people,” Pezeshkian said during a meeting with provincial officials in Kordestan province.

“While the state should serve producers, in many sectors we have reached a point where there are plenty of directors and managers but little productivity.”

He added that structural reform lies in downsizing the government, a process he described as difficult and time-consuming because “many have grown accustomed to rank and ceremony, and that mindset must change.”

Pezeshkian also warned that excessive state spending beyond national means “ultimately translates into inflation that weighs on people’s livelihoods.” 

He said he had instructed provincial governors to reduce administrative expenses to free resources for supporting vulnerable groups.

The president acknowledged that international sanctions had intensified economic strains but said domestic inefficiencies, rather than foreign pressure alone, remained the root cause of inflation that official data places at about 40%.