Western militaries and defense firms are racing to develop low-cost attack drones modelled on Iran’s Shahed after the weapon’s use in Ukraine showed how mass-produced unmanned aerial vehicles can overwhelm air defenses, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday.
The Journal said the Shahed-136’s simple delta wing, propeller engine and composite body enable cheap manufacturing, with Russian-built versions priced at about $35,000 to $60,000 each, compared with Western systems that can cost hundreds of thousands to more than $1 million.
“If you do get into a war, you need deep, deep pockets,” Lt. Gen. André Steur, commander of the Royal Netherlands Air and Space Force, told the paper.
The article, written by Alistair MacDonald, said Russia has deployed Shaheds in large salvos -- sometimes alongside missiles -- to saturate Ukrainian air defenses, prompting US and European companies to field look-alike designs.
At a Pentagon event this summer, 18 American-made drone prototypes were on display, the paper reported, including SpektreWorks’ Lucas and Griffon Aerospace’s Arrowhead, both of which mirror the Shahed’s delta planform and are aimed at mass production.
Western manufacturers argue that higher performance can justify higher unit prices. “If twice as many SkySharks hit their target, then it is much cheaper than a Shahed,” Mike Gascoyne, founder of Britain’s MGI Engineering, told the Journal, describing his SkyShark as able to fly at about 280 miles per hour compared with roughly 115 mph for a Shahed-136.
Analysts and defense officials told the Journal that cheap, one-way loitering munitions deployed in swarms present a strategic challenge because they force defenders to expend costly interceptors.
“Cheap, long-range precision saturation strikes are one of the greatest threats to international security,” James Patton Rogers of the Cornell Brooks Tech Policy Institute was quoted as saying.
The Journal also cited defense industry figures saying some companies are now selling Shahed-like target drones so air-defense units can train against swarm attacks.
Hugo Coqueret, a business development manager at European missile maker MBDA, was quoted saying, “Mass produced at a fraction of the cost of a cruise missile, it will tire out the enemy’s defense.”
Western governments have imposed rounds of sanctions on Iranian drone producers and procurement networks, blaming Tehran for supplying drones to Russia and to regional armed groups.
Satellite images reviewed by AP show construction at missile sites in Parchin and Shahroud, where buildings housing mixers appear under repair.
“If they’re able to reacquire some key things like planetary mixers, then that infrastructure is still there and ready to get rolling again,” said Sam Lair of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.
Solid-fuel missiles are central to Iran’s deterrence strategy after Israeli strikes decimated much of its air defense.
Iran operates solid-fuel missile production facilities at Khojir and Parchin, both near Tehran, as well as at Shahroud, about 350 kilometers (215 miles) northeast of the capital. All three sites were struck by Israel in October 2024, during earlier hostilities between the two countries.
Experts say the June strikes appeared designed to destroy buildings housing mixers, the machines essential for evenly combining missile fuel.
Iran had been producing more than 200 solid-fuel missiles a month before the war, according to AP.
Iran fired more than 570 ballistic missiles during the conflict, depleting an estimated third of its arsenal, according to the Jewish Institute for National Security of America.
Western officials believe Tehran could try to source mixers and propellant chemicals from China, which has previously supplied materials for Iran’s missile program. Beijing said it supports Iran’s sovereignty but voiced “deep concern” over rising regional tensions.
Iran’s Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh said last month the country was now focused on producing “military equipment with higher precision and greater operational capabilities.”
Britain, France and Germany triggered the 30-day “snapback” process on August 28, accusing Iran of breaching the 2015 nuclear deal. If no agreement is reached, restrictions including an arms embargo, asset freezes and bans on nuclear-related technology will return at the end of the month.
The move would also provide a legal basis for the EU and Britain to reimpose banking, shipping and energy curbs.
But as Reuters’ columnist Ron Bousso writes, past experience shows Western sanctions have had limited lasting impact on Iranian oil flows.
Exports collapsed to 444,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2020 after Washington reimposed sanctions but have since rebounded to 1.6 million bpd this year, with nearly 80% going to China, according to data from analytics firm Kpler.
Despite years of US efforts to expand restrictions on tankers, traders and refiners, Iran has developed an opaque network of intermediaries, uninsured vessels and ship-to-ship transfers to keep crude flowing.
“These whack-a-mole efforts have had little and often short-lived impact,” Bousso wrote.
Analysts say the snapback may deter some Asian buyers but not Beijing, which has already defied Western sanctions by importing sanctioned Russian LNG cargoes. Chinese refiners could even gain leverage to secure Iranian oil at steeper discounts, further undermining the effectiveness of Western sanctions.
The oil and petrochemical sector contributed roughly a quarter of Iran’s GDP in 2024, making continued exports critical to Tehran’s economy as sanctions loom.
Abolfazl Zohrevand, a member of parliament’s national security committee, told domestic media that the delivery of MiG-29s was intended as an interim measure while Tehran awaits the arrival of Su-35s “as a long-term solution.”
“Russian MiG-29 fighter jets have arrived in Iran and are stationed in Shiraz, while Sukhoi Su-35 jets are also on the way,” he said.
He also said that China’s HQ-9 air defense system and Russia’s S-400 system were being supplied to Iran “in significant numbers.”
Neither Moscow nor Beijing has confirmed the reported deliveries.
Iran has long sought to modernize its aging air force, which relies heavily on US-made jets purchased before the 1979 revolution and a small number of Russian and locally upgraded aircraft.
State media reported in January that the first Sukhoi Su-35s were formally handed over to Iran, but officials have not clarified how many are operational.
Western analysts say Iran’s request for 50 aircraftremains only partly fulfilled, with deliveries slowed by Russia’s own needs in Ukraine.
Tehran also faces vulnerability in air defenses after Israeli strikes earlier this year destroyed its last Russian-provided S-300 systems. Iran had acquired the four S-300 battalions from Russia in 2016.