Iran International
Debate is growing in Washington over talks with Iran, with hawkish Republicans urging against appeasing Iran's theocratic rulers but some observers saying the mercurial president might have a historic shot at clinching a deal with Tehran.
The debate has exposed unexpected fractures: US President Donald Trump’s own allies are split, while some longtime democratic critics of the president have cautiously praised his approach—highlighting the unpredictability of the current diplomatic moment.
Robert Malley, the former Biden administration Iran envoy who was sidelined for allegedly mishandling classified information, told The Free Beacon he is “optimistic” about Trump’s upcoming nuclear talks with Iran.
Meanwhile, traditional opponents of diplomacy with Iran are sounding alarms. Republican Senator Ted Cruz posted on X that “anyone urging Trump to enter into another Obama Iran deal is giving the President terrible advice,” calling for unified support behind the idea that Iran must never be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon.
Other hawkish GOP lawmakers have echoed that sentiment. In recent days, a group of Republican members of Congress sent a letter to Trump, urging him to pursue a Libya-style full dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program—an approach that would go far beyond the terms of the original JCPOA.
Trump's former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley posted online that she had previously raised alarm bells over Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence: “There is no room for Iranian sympathizers in the national security team of the US.”
Confusion
But the rift may be rooted in Trump himself, says Greg Brew, an Iran analyst with the Eurasia Group.
“The fact that it is Trump who is sort of leading the charge to get a new deal with Iran when he himself departed the original JCPOA in 2018, called it the worst deal in history," Brew said, referring to an original 2015 nuclear deal with Iran.
"Making this even more confusing, there is a decent chance that he himself favors the return to a deal that would look very similar to the JCPOA,”
Speaking on Fox news earlier this month, Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff seemed to suggest that a nuclear deal would permit Tehran to enrich uranium. A day later he appeared to walk back his comments and hardened his stance.
"A deal with Iran will only be completed if it is a Trump deal," Witkoff's official account on X quoted him as saying, adding that Iran must eliminate its nuclear enrichment.
Brew added the Trump team's ambiguous messaging is throwing both parties off balance.
“You have allies of Trump who hate the idea of diplomacy with Iran, who strongly back a military solution, perhaps even regime change of the Islamic Republic," Brew added. "Trump himself has said on numerous occasions that he's not interested in regime change, that he wants Iran to be successful, which is sort of throwing these groups into confusion."
Transformed political climate
Alex Vatanka, founding director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, told Iran International that the political landscape in 2025 is very different from when the JCPOA was first negotiated in 2015.
“The Republicans are in the majority and it's a Republican party that really doesn't want to say no to President Trump,” said Vatanka. “He probably has the best shot that I can think of any president in the last many years, if not decades.”
Vatanka noted that those with Trump’s ear right now are pushing for diplomacy, not confrontation.
“Right now, obviously with these ongoing talks, it's the folks who are arguing for diplomacy that seem to have the ear of President Donald J. Trump.”
As negotiations inch forward, Trump’s own political calculus—and how he chooses to navigate the diverse viewpoints on his home front—may determine whether US diplomacy succeeds or collapses under the weight of its own contradictions.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is traveling to Beijing on Tuesday with Ali Khamenei’s letter to Xi Jinping, a diplomatic source familiar with the message told Iran International.
The move comes days before Araghchi is expected to hold a third round of talks with US envoy Steve Witkoff.
“In his message to Xi, the Supreme Leader emphasized that the Islamic Republic remains fully committed to the 25-year cooperation agreement with China,” the source added.
“He added that Iran’s ‘Look to the East’ policy is a foundational pillar of its foreign relations and will not be altered by any rapprochement with Washington.”
The outreach comes as Iran’s role in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has remained marginal.
Despite close political ties and a comprehensive strategic agreement signed, Chinese investments in Iran have lagged far behind expectations. Only two major deals were struck between 2013 and 2023, with one later annulled following the US exit from a 2015 nuclear deal.
Iran and the United States this month engaged in two rounds of nuclear negotiations, first in Muscat and then in Rome, mediated by Oman. The initial talks in Muscat were described as "positive and constructive," with both sides agreeing to continue discussions the following week.
A third round of talks is slated for Saturday, as the two sides approach a 60-day deadline set by the US president for achieving a deal on Tehran's disputed nuclear program.
In late March, Trump threatened to bomb Iran and impose secondary sanctions if no nuclear deal is reached with Tehran.
Post-2015 opening to West 'won't be repeated’
According to the same diplomatic source, Khamenei’s message also referenced Iran’s cautious opening up to diplomacy and economic cooperation with the West following a 2015 nuclear agreement, telling Xi that such a change in orientation would not be repeated.
“The message was meant to reassure China that any agreement with the US is solely intended to reduce tensions,” the source said.
In his weekly press briefing on Monday, Iran's Foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Tehran continues to coordinate with allies, adding, “It is natural that we will brief China on the latest in the Iran-US talks.”
Araghchi’s trip to Beijing mirrors a recent effort in which Iran’s foreign minister delivered a similar message from Khamenei to Russian President Vladimir Putin ahead of earlier talks in Italy.
Though China remains Iran’s top trading partner, Chinese firms have signed far more lucrative contracts with Saudi Arabia and the UAE in recent years.
Since taking office, the Trump administration has escalated pressure on Iran by targeting Chinese teapot refineries—independent processors of Iranian crude that have served as a vital economic conduit for Tehran under sanctions.
“Russia’s role as a permanent Security Council member is important, and the nuclear cooperation between Iran and Russia naturally gives it a key part to play,” government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani said on Monday, according to Iranian media.
The remarks come as speculation grows over Russia’s potential role in Iran-US talks.
According to a Guardian report published Sunday, Russia could play a central role in any future nuclear deal, with Moscow being considered not only as a potential destination for Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, but also as a possible arbiter in the event of breaches to the agreement.
The report said that one option under discussion would allow Russia to "return the handed-over stockpile of highly enriched uranium to Tehran" if the US were to violate the deal, ensuring Iran is not penalized for American non-compliance.
Mohajerani said Iran is “hopeful the good management we’re seeing from that side [the US] will help move things in a positive direction,” but emphasized that Tehran will not accept prolonged negotiations.
“We do not welcome exhausting, lengthy negotiations. A good agreement that protects our national interests is possible in the short term," she added.
Reiterating the importance of sanctions relief, she said, “Lifting sanctions should have a real impact on people’s lives".
Only Sunday, she told the state news agency, “In the continuation of the negotiation path, we will welcome any practical initiative aimed at lifting sanctions".
Not only is Iran under sanctions for its nuclear program, but since the 2022 uprising, has been sanctioned for human rights abuses in addition to sanctions for its support of Russia's war on Ukraine.
Saudi visit 'beyond ordinary,' signals deeper ties
Highlighting the country's strengthening ties with its Arab neighbors, Mohajerani described the recent visit of Saudi Arabia’s defense minister to Tehran as a significant and strategic development.
“This visit went beyond a routine trip,” she said. “It carried a message from the Saudi King and included important talks. It reflects Saudi Arabia’s resolve to deepen cooperation with Iran.”
The two nations had cut diplomatic ties between 2016 and 2023 after an attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran, but today, Iran views Saudi Arabia as a critical regional partner, she said.
Strengthening ties with neighbors—especially Muslim countries—is a priority under the Pezeshkian administration's foreign policy.
It has also seen growing ties with the United Arab Emirates, which also cut diplomatic relations in the wake of the Saudi embassy incident, until reinstating them in 2022.
The gap between what the United States seeks and what Iran is willing to accept may simply be too wide to bridge, warned Christopher Ford, who served as Assistant Secretary for International Security and Nonproliferation during the Trump administration’s first term.
His remarks came at a panel hosted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, as momentum appears to be building toward renewed talks between Washington and Tehran over Iran’s nuclear program.
Ford voiced deep skepticism about the direction of the negotiations and suggested Iran’s strategy may be to delay any meaningful outcome until after October, when UN Resolution 2231 is set to expire—removing the legal basis for snapback sanctions.
“If I were on the Iranian side, that would be my negotiating strategy piece number one: draw this out,” he said.
The panel, titled From JCPOA to TBD: Assessing the Prospects for Diplomacy with Iran, followed the abrupt cancellation of a separate virtual session that was to feature Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi.
Araghchi had been added to the speaker lineup on Saturday for Carnegie’s high-profile Nuclear Policy Conference. But on the morning of the event, the think tank announced the session had been canceled after the Iranian delegation allegedly demanded last-minute changes that would have barred both the moderator and audience from asking questions.
Ford pointed to the incident as a revealing example of how Iran approaches diplomacy.
“Carnegie has gotten a bit of a flavor of the Iranian negotiating style in the past 24 hours,” Ford said. “The disingenuous bait-and-switch kind of thing. He knew what he was doing, and I commend you all for standing, you know, sticking to your guns on this.”
Richard Nephew, who helped craft US sanctions against Iran during the Obama administration and is now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, echoed Ford’s concerns and called Iran’s current approach opportunistic.
“If you're Abbas Araghchi, you have to be trying to see what you can get and see whether or not you can get a concessional deal that puts you in a better position,” said Nephew, a former US negotiator.
He argued that Iran is probing for sanctions relief with minimal nuclear concessions—and may be encouraged by internal divisions within the Trump administration over whether a deal should be hardline or more flexible.
“Their actual entry point is to see what they can get… They get sanctions relief with fairly minimal nuclear concessions.”
Nephew added that public comments from US officials suggest openness to a significantly looser agreement.
“I think if you look at the plain text reading of what the president and what Witkoff have said, one can read into that a much looser, much, much softer deal,” he said.
While expressing doubt that a lasting agreement is within reach, Nephew suggested that a short-term deal could still help stabilize the situation if it limits nuclear activity and includes robust IAEA oversight.
Both experts portrayed the current moment as one of fragile, uncertain diplomacy—with high stakes and little room for error.
