'He stared into my eyes,' Alinejad recalled encounter with hitman in court

Tensions between Iran and the United States have risen sharply since Donald Trump re-entered the Oval Office on 20 January, presenting multiple risks of escalation.

A key deadline in October 2025 looms over whether European countries will trigger the snapback mechanism to re-impose United Nations sanctions removed as part of the Iran nuclear deal in 2015.

Indications, not least by President Trump himself, that he would like to negotiate a new agreement to address Iran’s rapidly-advancing nuclear program, have been offset by his administration’s restoration of its ‘maximum pressure’ policy on Iran.

Trump’s transactional nature and unconventional style of decision-making means nothing can be ruled out in a high-stakes confrontation without a clearly-defined plan. 

Caught in the middle are Iran's Arab neighbours, where large-scale projects aimed at future-proofing economic development and growing non-oil sectors would be jeopardized by any conflict involving Iran.

‘De-risking’ has become a mantra in Arab capitals and particularly in Riyadh as the landmark year of 2030 draws closer and as the ‘giga-projects’ associated with Vision 2030 move into construction and delivery phases.

Qatar this month called for a diplomatic solution to the US-Iran standoff over Tehran's nuclear program and argued against military action.

The desire to reduce exposure to regional volatility has been evident in the process of rapprochement with Iran since 2020, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait restoring full diplomatic ties with Tehran in 2022 and 2023 and maintaining regular dialogue on key issues of interest.

This was evident in regional responses to the war in Gaza after 7 October 2023 as the conflict did not regionalize, in part because there was little appetite in any capital on either side of the Persian Gulf for any escalation. 

Excluded once, not twice

Back in 2015, officials in some Arab capitals and also in Israel expressed frustration that they were not included in the negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 that culminated in the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), from which Trump’s first administration withdrew in 2018.

In 2020, Saudi leaders called on the incoming Biden administration to consult with them as it sought to revive the Iran deal and explore an expanded ‘follow-on’ agreement, which ultimately did not happen.

As the indirect talks between US and Iranian officials broke down in 2022, the role of Iran's neighbouring Arab countries became more central to keeping open channels of communication between the parties. 

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Oman and Qatar, along with Kuwait, have long played roles in diplomacy and mediation in regional affairs, as they generally maintained pragmatic working relationships with Iran which, in the Qatari case, included one of the world’s largest reservoirs of natural gas which straddled their maritime boundary.

Officials in Oman placed a premium on balancing relationships with regional partners and being able to utilize their ability to engage with adversaries to address flashpoints and minimize their threat to regional security.

Prior to their passing in 2020, both Sultan Qaboos of Oman and Emir Sabah of Kuwait had well-earned reputations as diplomatists par excellence borne out of decades of involvement in regional affairs.

An example of their efforts to reduce tensions was seen in early 2017 when Emir Sabah sent a letter to Iran’s then-president, Hasan Rouhani, to establish a basis for dialogue after tensions had soared in 2016. Rouhani responded by visiting Kuwait and Oman and Emir Sabah then traveled to Muscat to meet with Sultan Qaboos to follow up, but the subsequent rift over Qatar put paid to those efforts. 

In 2025, Kuwait is focused on domestic issues and relatively absent from the regional scene, but there is space for Saudi Arabia to play more of an active role than it has in the past and to build upon the progress in the Kingdom’s relations with Iran since ties were re-established two years ago.

Since 2023, the Saudi leadership has been active in regional diplomatic initiatives concerning Syria, Gaza, and Sudan, and has burnished its credentials as an intermediary with convening power across the Arab and Islamic worlds.

In its ongoing facilitation of meetings of Ukrainian, Russian, and U.S. officials, the Kingdom has shown that it has the ability to navigate between adversaries and leverage its growing non-alignment in world affairs.

Securing a seat at the table in the Russia-U.S. talks may be a prelude to inserting Saudi Arabia into the middle of any negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, thereby minimizing the risks of exclusion from the talks, as in 2015, but Iranian officials may still view the Saudis as too close to the U.S. and not impartial. 

The regional mediators of longer standing, Qatar and Oman, are likely to continue to offer their services in relaying messages between the Unites States and Iran and ensuring that opportunities for dialogue remain open, joined by the United Arab Emirates which delivered a letter from Trump to Iranian leaders on 12 March.

Trump redux

Trump’s mercurial approach to policy appears even more unpredictable second time around and has led to whipsaw decisions on tariffs that have added to market uncertainty and left analysts scrambling.

A similar pattern may well overshadow the next phase of the delicate dance between the U.S. and Iran, especially if Trump and Iranian leaders engage in verbal sparring matches of ever-increasing volume.

If this happens, officials in the Gulf States may focus on practical measures to limit the possibility of escalation, whether by accident or design, and identify the parameters of realistic dialogue going forward. 

Taken together, their efforts are illustrative of the prevailing opinion in the region in favor of resolving the standoff between Tehran and Washington, and the depth of Emirati (and Saudi) political and economic relationships in DC may resonate with the Trump White House and its Congressional allies.

While tensions in other parts of the Middle East have soared in the wake of the Gaza war and the degradation of Iran’s ‘axis of resistance,’ the rulers in Riyadh, Muscat or Abu Dhabi are more closely aligned than they were in Trump’s first term, and may thus be better placed to play a proactive and productive role in de-escalatory regional dynamics.

The currency was trading at one million per US dollar in Tehran on Tuesday as gold prices also rose. This represents a 14,000-fold devaluation of the rial, which had remained stable at 70 per dollar for over a decade before the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Food inflation, which has averaged 100% in recent months, is expected to reach critical levels in the coming months unless Tehran initiates negotiations with the Trump administration.

The rial, which was valued at around 40,000 per dollar in early 2018, began to plummet after Trump withdrew from the JCPOA nuclear deal in May of that year and imposed tough economic sanctions, pushing inflation above 40%.

Despite long negotiations with the Biden administration in 2021-2022, Tehran did not reach an agreement with the US over reviving the JCPOA and its economic situation continued to deteriorate.

In February, President Trump called for new negotiations, stressing that Iran must not acquire nuclear weapons and vowing to tighten sanctions. So far, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has rejected talks, while Iranian officials maintain that Tehran will not negotiate under pressure.

Three days ago, Trump ordered air strikes against the Yemeni Houthis who have attacked international shipping in the Red Sea region and lobbed missiles at Israel. This was seen as a clear warning to Tehran. On Monday, Trump warned Tehran that it will be punished if its allies the Houthis retaliate against a US air assault over the weekend, escalating his rhetoric against Tehran.

"Every shot fired by the Houthis will be looked upon, from this point forward, as being a shot fired from the weapons and leadership of IRAN, and IRAN will be held responsible, and suffer the consequences, and those consequences will be dire!" Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.

As tens of millions of Iranians earn the equivalent of less than $150 a month and inflation is rising, some media outlets and commentators in Tehran have warned of potential unrest.

“The pace is accelerating with at least 169 known executions identified in January and February alone. Should this alarming rate remain consistent, the total number of executions could exceed 1,000 this year, a chilling threshold that demands a collective global response,” Sato warned.

Last year, at least 975 people were executed in Iran, a 17% increase from the 834 executions recorded the previous year, according to a joint report released by the Iran Human Rights Organization (IHRNGO) and Together Against the Death Penalty (ECPM).

It has stepped up since the 2022 uprising. In 2023, the UN quickly identified Tehran's utilising the death penalty to quash dissent.

"Criminal proceedings and the death penalty are being weaponised by the Iranian government to punish individuals participating in protests and to strike fear into the population so as to stamp out dissent, in violation of international human rights law," the UN Human Rights Office (OHCHR) said at the time.

Sato also highlighted the ongoing discrimination against religious and ethnic minorities, the lack of transparency in human rights cases, and the continued crackdown on protests and dissent.

Religious minorities, including Baha’is, Sunnis, and Christian converts, as well as ethnic groups such as Turks, Kurds, Arabs, and Baluchis, remain targets of state repression, she said.

She cited reports of arbitrary arrests, unfair trials, and executions targeting these communities.

Sato also raised concerns about the rising number of executions of women, naming three political prisoners—Pakhshan Azizi, Varishe Moradi, and Sharifeh Mohammadi—who are currently on death row.

At least 179 cases of femicide were documented in Iran last year, she said, adding that women in Iran continue to face systemic discrimination under laws that devalue their testimony in court and restrict their rights in employment and other areas.

Sato said human rights defenders, journalists, and lawyers are being harassed, intimidated, and threatened, particularly in Iranian prisons, where many are denied medical treatment.

She also noted that families of political prisoners face threats outside of prison.

UN fact-finding mission reports sexual violence in Iranian prisons

Sara Hussain, the head of the UN Independent Fact-Finding Mission on Iran, told the council that Iranian authorities have committed widespread human rights violations, including extrajudicial detentions, torture, and sexual violence against prisoners.

"These acts constitute crimes against humanity and gender-based violence," she said.

The fact-finding mission has previously documented the use of torture, forced confessions, and intimidation tactics against detainees.

Calls for Iran to end repression

Representatives from multiple countries called on Iran to halt executions and end its crackdown on dissent.

Germany urged the Islamic Republic to stop executions and guarantee fundamental freedoms, while Switzerland highlighted multiple human rights violations and called for an end to repression.

Spain, Australia, and North Macedonia demanded an end to the persecution of human rights activists and the execution of political prisoners.

The Netherlands called for an extension of the UN fact-finding mission’s mandate, saying Iran has committed "crimes against humanity."

Belgium said the sharp rise in executions was deeply concerning, while Albania condemned the Islamic Republic’s attempts to assassinate dissidents.

Chile described a recent visit by a UN human rights delegation to Iran as a positive step but stressed that "without gender equality, there is no democracy."

Iran's allies push back against criticism of Tehran's human rights record

In contrast, Iran's ally, Venezuela, dismissed the UN fact-finding mission as a politically motivated effort to pressure Iran.

North Korea, also an ally of Iran, accused the international community of systematically targeting Iran and called on the Human Rights Council to end its "double standards."

Allies China, Venezuela, Cuba, and Ethiopia also defended Iran’s human rights record, with Ethiopia criticizing what it called the "politicization" of the issue.

Sudan also said that Iran’s human rights situation was improving and called for respect for each country’s right to determine its own approach to human rights.

US-educated hardliner Foad Izadi, often cited by Iranian media as an expert on US politics, told the conservative Nameh News website that Washington has refrained from attacking Iran because it views such a move as too costly.

"Those who do not want their country to be attacked by the United States should not repeat Trump's statements," Izadi said. He also claimed that Washington is pressuring Iran’s neighbors to cut economic ties, including efforts to push Iraq to halt electricity and natural gas imports from Iran.

Izadi made the remarks before President Donald Trump issued a warning to Tehran on March 17, warning that it will bear responsibility for any attack by Yemeni Houthis, who are supported by the Islamic Republic.

Hardliners within Iran's ruling circles staunchly defend Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's refusal to negotiate with the United States, despite clear warnings by the Trump administration.

Izadi argued that "the United States wants to limit Iran's access to conventional weapons. Therefore, negotiating with Washington is likely to increase the possibility of a US attack on a weak Iran."

Meanwhile, a prominent politician close to former President Hassan Rouhani, who supports

A prominent politician close to former President Hassan Rouhani, who supports negotiations, offers a different perspective, stating, "The United States is genuinely seeking a solution to its dispute with Iran over Tehran's nuclear program."

In an interview with the moderate conservative website Khabar Online, Mahmoud Vaezi, a senior aide to Rouhani and deputy leader of the Moderation and Development Party, said Washington is genuinely pursuing détente with Iran and hopes to resolve the ongoing nuclear dispute.

"Lifting US sanctions through negotiations with Washington will bring about an economic breakthrough in Iran," Vaezi asserted. Referring to plans for the Iranian New Year, which begins on March 20, he stressed that Iran must make difficult decisions to address its deepening economic crisis, which has severely impacted people's livelihoods.

He further emphasized the need for swift action to ease tensions with the United States and other countries, calling it a necessary step in the broader reforms required to stabilize living conditions in Iran.

The politician also urged Iranian officials to work toward removing barriers to international trade, reducing government intervention in economic affairs, and strengthening the private sector. He emphasized the need to foster a fair competitive environment to encourage greater private sector participation in the economy.

Like many other politicians in the Reformist camp, including Rouhani, Vaezi emphasized that Khamenei has not completely ruled out negotiations with the United States. He also tried to highlight contradictions in Trump's statements and actions.

In another development, Iranian academic and international law expert Mehdi Zakerian suggested in an interview with the reformist Shargh daily that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi should take a more proactive role in breaking Iran’s diplomatic deadlock. He argued that the current foreign policy crisis does not justify inaction. "The art of a diplomat is to offer solutions to crises. Stepping into an ideal situation and signing a pre-written agreement would be easy for anyone."

Expressing regret, Zakerian said, "Iran has missed many opportunities to actively resolve its own disputes with other countries and to contribute to regional conflict resolution." As examples, he pointed out, "Iran could have made more constructive decisions during last year’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon."

"Today, on 17 March 2025, the Council of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) rejected Iran’s preliminary objection in the case of Flight PS752," a UK Government spokesperson said.

"This decision takes us a step closer to holding Iran to account for its illegal downing of Flight PS752 in January 2020."

The ICAO Council's decision allows Canada, Sweden, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom to proceed to the next phase of their case against Iran, which alleges the downing of the civilian airliner was unlawful.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha confirmed the ruling on X, saying, "Iran attempted to challenge the jurisdiction of the ICAO Council regarding the complaint over the downing of the civilian airliner. But the Council ruled in favor of Ukraine, Canada, Sweden, and the UK and moving the case to the merits."

The Boeing 737-800 NG, operating flight PS752 from Tehran to Kyiv, was shot down by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) shortly after takeoff on January 8, 2020, killing all 176 passengers and crew. Iran initially denied responsibility but later admitted its air defense operator mistakenly identified the plane as a hostile target.

The ICAO ruling comes after years of legal battles and demands for accountability from the families of the victims. "We remain committed to seeking justice, transparency, and accountability for the 176 innocent victims and their families," the UK government spokesperson said.

The Association of Families of Flight PS752 Victims welcomed the decision, saying, "Now, with this condemnation, it is clear to all how little credibility this regime and its deceptive statements hold in the international community."

The four countries initiated a dispute review at ICAO in January 2024, alleging Iran violated the Chicago Convention, which guarantees the safety of civilian flights. They have also filed a complaint with the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

Iran's Foreign Ministry criticized the legal actions as hasty and unjustified, maintaining the downing of the plane was not intentional or deliberate. Ali Mousavi, the ministry’s director-general of legal affairs, urged the four countries to reconsider their stance.

Families of the victims have also pursued legal action within Iran, but have criticized the process for lacking transparency. Lawyer Mahmoud Alizadeh Tabatabai, representing several families, said they were denied access to key evidence.