Iran or Turkey: Debate Rages Over Who Found Raisi Helicopter Wreckage

This incident has brought to light the profoundly insensitive reactions from Western leaders, particularly the United States. The Biden administration's rush to express condolences for the death of Raisi—an individual known as the "Butcher of Tehran" for his role in the mass execution of over 4,000 political prisoners in the 1980s—was deeply traumatic and insulting to Iranians.

In a surprising and unprecedented move, the US State Department issued an official statement expressing condolences for the deaths of Raisi, Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian, and other members of their delegation in a helicopter crash in northwest Iran. At the United Nations, US Deputy Ambassador Robert Wood was seen standing during a moment of silence held for Raisi, further adding to the distress.

National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby attempted to justify the administration’s response, describing it as a "typical practice" following the death of a world leader. This defense, however, prompts a critical question: Would the United States feel obliged to offer similar condolences for the deaths of notorious figures like Bashar al-Assad or Vladimir Putin? In the past, the U.S. has refrained from such gestures towards leaders like Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi, or even Hugo Chavez, who were also responsible for egregious human rights violations.

Even in a similar case concerning Iran, when Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the Islamic Revolution, passed away, the White House did not directly offer condolences. Instead, it expressed hope that "With his passing, Iran would now move toward assuming a responsible role in the international community."

Upon the death of Kim Jong Il in 2011, the White House did not offer condolences but reaffirmed its "commitment to stability on the Korean peninsula, and to the freedom and security of our allies." While there are instances where the US did offer condolences, such as in the case of Hafez Assad in 2000, the practice of offering condolences is selective and far from typical. The response largely depends on the complexity of the relationship and the diplomatic agenda of the US. However, the issue with Iran is even more complicated. Unlike other cases, there is no formal relationship between the two countries, and more importantly, the Islamic Republic considers America the great Satan, actively chants "Death to America," and threatens American interests.

Perhaps a more significant difference is that at the time of Raisi's death, there has been an active democracy-seeking movement in Iran for at least six years, and an ongoing conflict between the Iranian people and the regime, which was not the case in other scenarios. Therefore, this inconsistency and selective sympathy reveal a troubling moral lapse, an inability to clearly distinguish between good and evil, and a strategy of appeasement designed to curry favor with the Iranian regime for future diplomatic negotiations. The recent meeting of American officials with the regime in Oman only adds to these suspicions.

Even more shocking was the prayer offered by Senate Chaplain Barry Black for "the people of Iran who are mourning the death of Raisi," implying that the Iranian public grieves for a leader who spent 40 years issuing death sentences and suppressing dissent. This comes after videos circulating on social media showed Iranians bravely celebrating with fireworks, passing out sweets, and sharing pictures of themselves toasting drinks or dancing. In response to the wave of celebrations, Mohammad Movahedi Azad, the regime’s Attorney General, issued a directive threatening social media users with "swift, effective, and deterrent action."

Such messages are not only tone-deaf but also demonstrate a profound ignorance of the political realities in Iran and the aspirations of its people. The Biden administration’s reaction represents a severe moral backslide compared to that of his peers in the Democratic Party. When Pol Pot, the leader of the Khmer Rouge, died, President Bill Clinton not only refrained from expressing condolences but also used the occasion to call for justice for the victims and accountability for his accomplices.

For the past six years, Iranians have repeatedly taken to the streets, most notably in November 2019, which led to the deaths of 1,500 protesters, and during the nationwide uprising of 2022 known as the Woman, Life, Freedom movement, crying for freedom. Brave Iranian women have challenged a regime that has even worn-down great powers. The memory of Nika Shakarami, a 16-year-old protester who fought for her life, or Majidreza Rahnavard, who was hanged from a crane, should have reminded Western leaders to honor these struggles rather than sympathize with their oppressors.

This episode is especially demoralizing for President Biden, who rhetorically promised to bring human rights back to the forefront of US foreign policy and to restore America's global leadership. Instead, his administration's actions have further traumatized the oppressed Iranian society. The Biden administration’s response to Raisi's death reflects a profound moral failure and a disregard for the suffering of the Iranian people. The West must recognize the aspirations of those fighting for freedom and refrain from actions that inadvertently legitimize their oppressors.

The revelations were made during a dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin, King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa opening the door to ties in the wake of both United Arab Emirates and Saudi's thawing tensions.

Tiny but geopolitically significant Bahrain, hosting the US Navy's Fifth Fleet, has repeatedly accused Iran of destabilizing efforts by fueling dissent among its Shi'ite population against the ruling Sunni monarchy. The 2011 protests, a part of the broader Arab Spring movement, were suppressed by the government, with Iran being partly blamed for the upheaval—a charge Iran has consistently denied.

The kingdom has a long-standing alignment with US and UK interests, notably highlighted by its sole Persian Gulf state endorsement of the strikes against the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen following their Red Sea confrontations earlier this year.

The recent thaw in relations was marked by an Iranian parliamentary delegation's visit to Bahrain last year for the International Inter-Parliamentary Union Assembly, the first official Iranian presence in Bahrain in seven years after Manama’s severance of ties with Tehran in 2015, closely mirroring Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic break-off.

The tentative diplomatic rapprochement comes on the heels of a landmark agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, brokered by China last year, which ended a seven-year standoff by agreeing to reopen embassies and diplomatic missions.

In the previous year, ties had also mended between Iran and the United Arab Emirates, known as the region's 'little Sparta' for the power it wields relative to its size.

Aşkın, known for her accurate forecasts including plane crashes and political outcomes, had foretold major upheavals for Iran, pinpointing the exact date of the late President's death as a significant date. 

On April 13, 2024, just over a month before the incident, Aşkın tweeted, "The curtain will open for Iran after April 29, especially around May 19. The real agenda is then."

This prediction turned prophetic when President Raisi and his Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, died in a helicopter crash exactly on the day of the predicted upheaval, May 19.

The accuracy of her prediction, particularly the specificity of the dates involved, has fueled intense discussion and further propelled Aşkın's reputation as a seer amidst her followers and skeptics alike. Her previous predictions, which have included the outcomes of the 2023 Presidential elections in Turkey, added layers of credibility to her recent forecasts.

This presents a dual challenge for Khamenei: first, regaining the trust of the general public, and second, reassuring political players, including his obedient supporters, that he values their well-being and contributions. His comments about Raisi were notably unappreciative, clearly stating that his absence would not change anything.

President Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash brought the Islamic Republic’s weaknesses to the fore. Hours after the incident, the government could not locate the crash site. Khamenei's government also seemed to lack a news dissemination and gatekeeping mechanism in place. The chaos in news dissemination about he helicopter crash alerted even regime insiders. Former presidential adviser and top security and intelligence expert Hesamoddin Ashna begged the core of the regime to conduct a serious investigation and not to rule out any possibility.

Hardline conservative member of the Iranian parliament, Mostafa Mirsalim said Raisi's loss was a catastrophe for the regime and called on Acting President Mohammad Mokhber to investigate all the flaws in the system that led to Raisi's death.

In the days after the incident, the only response by the government has been to bar the media from analyzing the possible reasons and scenarios that contributed to the death of the country's president, foreign minister and several other officials.

The next challenge is security. Even while the nation awaited news about the former President's fate, a gunman in Tehran killed three police officers, including two colonels. The IRGC's Telegram channel downplayed the incident, describing the gunman as "an evil man" and incorrectly stating that only one officer was a captain and the other two were non-commissioned officers. However, social media users pointed out, based on photos, that two of the victims were indeed colonels.

Another indication of security concerns was the widespread rumor in Tehran that Police Chief General Radan had been assassinated. A pro-government social media activist and former state TV producer urged the government to inform the public about the police chief's whereabouts and safety to restore a sense of security and reassurance.

Nothing has been done after three days.

Meanwhile, tight security measures around Khamenei during the funeral ceremony for Raisi was eye-catching. Many pointed that out on social media as bodyguards separated him even from the first row of Iranian dignitaries who are usually trusted insiders.

A more existential challenge facing Khamenei is the uncertainty that will most certainly lead to more economic problems for the people and the government. The issue of succession is one of the biggest reasons for the general uncertainty about what the future will bring. In the absence of a mechanism like choosing a crown prince in monarchies, no one can be sure that the succession will be smooth.

The suspicious death of Khomeini’s son, who was a serious contender to succeed the Islamic Republic's first supreme leader, clearly indicates that after the leader is dead there is no guarantee that his son would be taken care of by those who were loyal to him before his demise.

Meanwhile, in the short run, the June presidential election poses a threat to the coherence of the system, if not its strength. There are dozens of contestants who are uncertain of Khamenei's true support, with most believing he already knows who will succeed Raisi. Pundits suggest that the public is unlikely to welcome the election for this very reason.

Nonetheless, the rivalry among the contestants is already so fierce that it frightens the nation. Some hardliners accuse one of the most likely contenders, Mehrdad Bazrpash, of possibly being involved in a conspiracy to eliminate Raisi. Others, such as former President Ahmadinejad and former Majles Speaker Larijani, who have previously been disqualified, are almost certain that Khamenei is unlikely to forgive their past mistakes—Ahmadinejad for not being sufficiently obedient and Larijani for allegedly conspiring with Rouhani to share power in a post-Khamenei government.

Sources revealed to Middle East Eye, that the talks, held in Oman, where crucial discussions previously paved the way for the 2015 nuclear agreement, faced a sudden halt following the helicopter crash on Sunday that claimed the lives of several top Iranian officials.

Brett McGurk, President Joe Biden's senior Middle East adviser, and Ali Bagheri Kani, Iran’s lead negotiator, had been making progress in the first talks since January.

The discussions, which took place against a backdrop of escalating regional tensions, focused on several critical issues, including a mutual interest in altering the Israeli government, ending the Israeli military actions in Gaza, and preventing the conflict from spreading further in the Middle East. Analysts close to the Iranian regime suggested the talks might have also touched on a potential ceasefire between the US and Iran’s allies.

With the sudden leadership vacuum in Tehran, and with Iran poised to conduct presidential elections on June 28, the future of the high-stakes negotiations remains uncertain. The United States is also approaching its presidential elections in November, adding to the diplomatic standstill.

Sources also hinted that discussions might have extended to Iran's nuclear ambitions and the potential easing of oil sanctions, echoing elements of the previous nuclear deal, which the Trump administration abandoned in 2018. Despite a temporary agreement last year involving a prisoner exchange and the return of confiscated Iranian oil revenues, broader negotiations remain fraught with political challenges.