Iran Conservatives: Raisi Is Not Aware Of What The Presidency Entails

Fatemeh Maghsoudi, representative of Boroujerd in the parliament, told the media Monday that attributing the poisonings to religious fundamentalists was “unfounded” but demanded shifting to online education until the mystery of the attacks is solved.

In a commentary published by Qom News on February 14, Nafiseh Moradi, an Islamic studies researcher at Tehran’s Al-Zahra University, speculated that the Taliban’s ban on girls’ education may have inspired the ultra-religious in Qom to carry out attacks on schools for girls to instill fear in students and their families with the aim of keeping them at home. The website was later blocked by the authorities for publishing the controversial claim.

Since then, many on social media have also attributed the school attacks to underground Shiite groups with beliefs similar to doomsday cults who are also infuriated by young female students’ anti-regime protests and refusal to wear the hijab.

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Last week Attorney General Mohammad Javad Montazeri said in a letter to Qom prosecutor that the poisoning of students in Qom might be a “deliberate criminal act” and urged city officials to take decisive action in the case.

The first case which was reported in Qom on November 30 affected 18 students at a secondary school who fell ill with symptoms such as nausea, headaches, coughing, difficulty breathing, heart palpitations, and lethargy.

Poisonings, apparently by gas, were hushed for nearly two months but now they have spread to several other cities, particularly in Boroujerd, capital of the western Lorestan province, where several schools were hit in the past week.

Students of Ahmadieh High School in Boroujerd have said that something like a home-made bomb was thrown into the school yard that emitted a gas. Consequently, some of these students lost movement in their limbs and had to be hospitalized as were the school principal and her deputy.

Over a hundred were poisoned at 15 Khordad High School in the same city. There are reports of Tohid Middle School and Fereshtegan Primary being hit in Boroujerd in the past few days.

Isolated cases have also been reported, with very little detail, in Qazvin, and several other cities in different parts of the country.

Victims say they smelled something like bleach while others report smelling peppermint, bleach or rotten fruit before their symptoms emerged.

In response to claims on social media that Fatemeh Rezaei, an eleven-year-old girl, has died in Qom because of the poisonings, the state media on Sunday said the death of the schoolgirl in Qom had nothing to do with the school attacks.

The official news agency IRNA on Monday published an interview with the girl’s father who said the reports about his daughter’s death and its connection with the poisonings was fabricated by “anti-revolutionary media” based outside Iran. He said his daughter’s symptoms which led to her death from infection included leg pain, stomachache, vomiting and a temperature.

The interview reminded many of what is known to Iranians as “forced” confessions or statements.

Deputy education minister Younes Panahi said Sunday that the serial poisoning of female students in Qom and other cities were "intentional". "It was found that some people wanted all schools, especially girls' schools, to be closed." Later on the same day, he said he was misquoted about the incidents being “intentional poisonings”.

Panahi also insisted that the chemical compounds used to poison students were not of weapons-grade chemicals used in chemical wars and that aggressive treatments were not required for the symptoms that students have been suffering from.

Even before reaching that unprecedented level, the media in Tehran and social media users showed disillusionment, despair and anger about the rising rates and attributed it to the government's inefficiency.

Reformist daily Shargh in its Sunday edition that was prepared the previous day when the rate was just over 575,000 rials per dollar, also criticized the government's supporters such as hardline Kayhan newspaper for keeping silent, although it used to lash out at the Rouhani administration less than two years ago when the rial was much stronger.

Shargh quoted reformist cleric Mohammad Taqi Fazel Maybodi's comment on social media about the President's father-in-law Ahmad Alamolhoda who has attributed the currency’s fall to "foreigners' conspiracy," and told him "what would have you said if such an unprecedented rise [for the dollar] occurred under former President Rouhani?"

The government and its supporters blame everyone for the hike except their own policies, wrote Shargh. The daily also quoted conservative commentator Mohammad Mohajeri as having said that Raisi had better go to former officials such as foreign minister Zarif, IT Minister Jahromi, oil minister Zanganeh and Central Bank governor Hemmati and begged them to return to their offices to put an end to the chaotic situation in their areas of expertise.

While rumors in Tehran indicate that Raisi is about to make some changes in his cabinet and replace individuals such Vice President Mohammad Mokhber, the latter told the parliament on Saturday, "You cannot find officials better than us!" Statements like that certainly dash hopes for an improvement in the situation.

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Iranian journalist Mohammad Aghazadeh wrote in a tweet on Saturday, "The unprecedented rise in the rate of exchange for the US dollar cannot have only economic reasons. There is a major development behind it. The current situation cannot and will not continue. This development may be engineered. Otherwise, either a spontaneous uprising by the masses or a war might determine the course of [upcoming] events."

Meanwhile, according to Rouydad24 news website, former lawmaker Mansoor Haqiqatpour has said that "radicals who have infiltrated the government do not allow real experts to tackle the problems. He added that the obstruction by radicals comes while the government is less capable than what the Iranian nation deserves.

Stressing that the Raisi administration is inefficient, the politician said, "Officials should solve the problems if they can. And if they cannot, they should say that honestly and allow others who have expertise to come forward and handle the job." He added: "This government started its work with the rate of exchange of 230,000 rials per dollar and a year and a half later, the dollar is way over 560,000 rials. This is a clear indication of the government's inefficiency."

According to Iranian academic Gholamreza Zarifian, respecting the people's trust is clearly not part of the government's priorities, and this comes while the public cannot tolerate any further crises.

Presumably referring to a recent statement by Iran’s ruler Ali Khamenei, Zarifian said: "Decision makers insist that what is going on in Iran is an example of democracy, but critics are aware that the current reality is extremely far away from any likeness of democracy and a large part of Iranians are unhappy about the status quo. The people who cannot make ends meet blame government officials' naivety and inefficiency for the economic bottlenecks in their lives."

Iranian government officials, experts and the regime’s opponents have long argued that economic sanctions imposed by the Trump administration since 2018 inflicted a serious blow to Iran’s weak economy, but few have ventured to quantify the impact.

What is clear now is that Iran’s oil-dependent currency, the rial, fell from 35,000 to more than 600,000 against the US dollar in exactly five years. This led to very high inflation, officially at more than 50 percent, which has impoverished tens of millions of Iranians. But how much of the bad news was the result of sanctions and how much was the outcome of a natural trend in Iran’s state-controlled and inefficient economy.

Masoud Nili, an economist in Tehran believes that the impact of sanctions on the fall of the rial has been significant and serious. In a television program reported by Roouydad24 news website. Nili said that if the United States had not withdrawn from the JCPOA nuclear deal and imposed sanctions, the rial would be probably trading at 100,000 against the US dollar, instead of 600,000 and counting.

The economist based his estimate on trends since at least 2000 and concluded that the rial would have lost value in the past 5 years, but at a manageable pace.

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Iran’s currency was trading at 70 to the dollar right before the 1979 revolution but in the 44 years since the establishment of the Islamic Republic it has steadily declined and now is headed toward a 10,000-fold fall in value.

But in Nili’s estimate, without the ‘Trump’s sanctions’ the Islamic Republic would have faced rial’s natural fall and not a catastrophic decline that it cannot control now.

The economist had a similar appraisal of the rate of inflation. Looking at trends in more than two decades he argued that the average annual inflation rate was around 16 percent, except in the past five years. The latest official figures put the inflation rate at more than 50 percent for January 2023, although there are no independent estimates.

Nili argued that the difference between the 16 percent average since the year 2000 and the current inflation rate is because of US sanctions.

But that difference is exactly what made the current situation an hyper-crisis instead of a weak economy limping along with the steady income from oil exports.

The Biden administration that assumed office criticizing the its predecessor’s decision to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear accord, also argued that sanctions have been ineffective and Tehran has expanded its nuclear program instead of making any concessions.

Critics on the other hand argued that sanctions take time to leave a serious impact and those imposed on Iran would have hardly worked in just two years from 2018-2020.

As the Biden administration entered talks with Tehran in April 2020 to revive the JCPOA, it did not suspend Trump’s sanctions and Iran struggled to sell oil and engage in in international trade. After depleting its foreign currency reserves, the economic situation began to quickly deteriorate, especially as optimism disappeared in the latter part of 2022 in the absence of a new nuclear deal with the US.

Moderate news website Aftab News on February 24 quoted a report from the January issue of "National Security Monitor" magazine which also said: "A small percentage of Iranians believe in harsh treatment of bad-hijab women.”

It is not clear who conducted the opinion survey or when, but the interesting aspect of what has appeared in the media is that it was conducted by some kind of government outlet.

The research also concluded that the government's interference in social and cultural matters such as women's dress code and lifestyle will increase people’s distrust in the government.

Meanwhile, like many other assessments about the implications of the Iranian protests during the past months, the research concluded that the death in custody of the young woman Mahsa Amini in mid-September was simply a trigger for the protests and long-standing grievances were the main reason for the unrest that still continues.

Based on the findings of the research, people's dissatisfaction and their disappointment with the government has made it necessary to bring about essential reforms to end the protest movement.

According to the findings, although a majority of Iranians want a new system of governance, this does not necessarily mean that they simply want a change of the presidential administration.

Despair and disillusionment in the Iranian society are not exclusively about the way authorities run the economy or manipulate elections, but they are also about unfair treatment of people in occupational environments that hinder their progress at work.

The study suggested that the government should follow democratic reforms after mending its broken relationship with the people by paying respect to their wisdom and courage and not attributing the protests to foreign governments or delaying to meet the people's demands as protests recede.

The Netherlands-based Gamaan institute conducted an online survey in December 2022, with tens of thousands of respondents from Iran and abroad. The study revealed very similar attitudes between those in the country and abroad. “In response to the question “Islamic Republic: Yes or No?” 81% of respondents inside the country responded “No” to the Islamic Republic, 15% responded “Yes,” and 4% were not sure. Of the Iranian respondents abroad, 99% responded “No,” opting against the Islamic Republic,” GAMAAN reported.

In a follow-up question for those who answered “No”, the survey asked about their preferred democratic and secular alternative political system. Of those, 28% inside Iran and 32% outside Iran would prefer a presidential republic, 12% inside Iran and 29% outside Iran would prefer a parliamentary republic, and 22% inside Iran and 25% outside Iran would prefer a constitutional monarchy.

According to the National Security Monitor magazine, experts among the government's supporters and critics equally believed that the protests took place against a backdrop of systematic injustice, unfair treatment of the elites and intellectuals, widespread wrongdoing at various levels of governance, and violating the freedoms of citizens and their dignity by the government.

Meanwhile, the study suggested democratic reforms that would lead to boosting people's participation in elections and facilitating online communication with the people. The study said that some Iranian officials' hardline stances about censoring the Internet, social media and works of literature and art showed that not only they do not believe in people's rights, but they judge a majority of Iranians as immature individuals who would easily be influenced by foreigners' propaganda. Such a treatment will ruin the remnants of the regime's credibility and legitimacy, the study warned.

The reports quote rumors circulating on the popular messaging application Telegram as saying that Mostazafan Foundation Chief Parviz Fattah, a member of the ultraconservative Paydari Party is likely to replace Vice President Mohammad Mokhber who has been under attack for the rapidly falling national currency in the past week.

In a closed-door session of the parliament Saturday morning, Mokhber reportedly refused provide a convincing answer for the rial’s fall and told the lawmakers: "That is how it is. Take it or leave it!"

Conservative news website Nameh News, which reported the possibility of a change at the top level of the Raisi administration on Saturday, said that Vice President for Economic Affairs Mohsen Rezaei is also likely to be replaced by Zahedi Vafa, another Paydari member.

Political observers have been saying recently that no routine change in the combination of the cabinet can save the administration, particularly because all of these hardliner conservative groups are equally inefficient and unpopular. Nonetheless, rumors in Tehran indicate that the new arrivals will strengthen the position of Planning and Budget Organization Chief Massoud Mirkazemi and his efforts to contain the current chaos.

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President Ebrahim Raisi recently promised during a public meeting with Iran’s ruler Ali Khamenei that the rial will be strengthened. Since then, during the past week the rate of exchange for the US dollar has risen from over 450,000 rials to more than 570,000.

At the same time, while the government is under pressure for the failure or rather lack of an economic policy, an editorial in the reformist daily Sharq predicted that according to political observers in Tehran, as street protests seems to have receded, Iran is likely to face a new wave of unrest because of the inevitable rise in prices as the rial falls.

According to Shargh newspaper, while social protests in the Iranian year 1401 [2022-23] led to major unrest, in 1402 [2023-24] economic matters are likely to create political turmoil. Shargh wrote that this possibility is so strong that even some government institutions have expressed concern about the likelihood.

Meanwhile, political analyst Ghasem Mohebali told Rouydad24 website in an interview that "We are facing a government whose style of management is based on wishful thinking and chanting slogans, mindless of the fact that time is over for that kind of management." Mohebali added: "This is a system that has all the political power and financial resources at its disposal and does not need the people for being elected another round."

"The government thinks that by spreading 'good news' about developments such as a probable visit by the Sultan of Oman, it can lower the rates of exchange, but it does not realize that this wishful thinking does not solve any problem," Mohebali added. He said the government is in a situation that it cannot step back from its positions and at the same time it cannot continue its current policies.

In another development, lawmaker Shiva Ghassemipour said: "although the economic situation was not ideal before Raisi, people's livelihood has become increasingly more difficult under the Raisi administration." Pointing out the political and economic impasse, she said that "It would have not possibly made much of a difference even if someone other Raisi was steering the administration."