Biden Meets MbS As He Arrives For Arab Summit Focused On Iran

On Friday, the French foreign ministry specifically named the three Iranian award-winning filmmakers who were arrested on July 8 and 11 – namely Jafar Panahi, Mohammad Rasoulof and Mostafa Aleahmad.

Earlier in the week, the Cannes Film Festival, the Berlinale, the European Film Academy and the International Coalition for Filmmakers at Risk also called for the immediate release of the prominent filmmakers.

Panahi, who has won numerous awards, including the Golden Leopard at Locarno Festival, the Golden Lion in Venice, and the Silver Bear at the Berlinale, was arrested July 11 as he was protesting the detention of two other award-winning filmmakers Mohammad Rasoulof and Mostafa Alehahmad.

Rasoulof – another prominent filmmaker with several international awards such as the Golden Bear – and Alehahmad – who is known in international film galas for his short works -- were arrested July 8 as part of the Iranian crackdown on the signatories of a collective statement titled “Lay down the gun” issued by more than 100 film industry personalities in the end of May.

The statement called on military and security forces who “have become tools for cracking down on the people,” not to suppress protesters during a wave of protests across Iran that were triggered when a 10-story building collapsed in Abadan, leaving at least 40 people dead and dozens missing.

In a long piece, the agency used the term “attack” for Russia’s intervention in Ukraine, rather than referring to a “crisis” as state-owned media has generally done. Fars also stressed Amir-Abdollahian had dismissed Monday’s claim from United States National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan that Tehran was preparing to send drones, some armed, to Moscow to help its military effort.

UPDATE - Later, the White House released satellite photos and information that Russian military officials visited an Iranian drone base in Kerman to review military UAVs.

This was the fourth phone conversation between the two men, Fars explained, during the crisis, the first before hostilities began in February and three since then.

The agency suggested Amir-Abdollahian had played a mediating role conveying messages between the two sides, including during his trip to Moscow in mid-March and at the meeting of Afghanistan’s neighbors in China, which was March 30-31.

In Friday’s call, Fars reported, Amir-Abdollahian expressed “opposition to Russia’s attack on Ukraine” and reiterated that Iran had “tried to stop this war” and facilitate diplomacy between the two sides. This was in line, the foreign minister had explained, with Iran’s opposition to wars in Afghanistan, Yemen and Palestine.

The foreign minister pointed out that Sullivan’s claims about drones had coincided with “Biden’s trip to occupied Palestine” and said they had been made “simply for political ends.” Fars noted that Iran’s foreign ministry had already stated that while Tehran had “different areas of cooperation with Russia, including defense,” it would take military side and had also made clear its belief that the war in Ukraine should end with a ceasefire.

‘Nato tools,’ grain supplies

Fars also noted the interests of arms producers in “some western countries, trying to sell products,” and reminded readers that at his joint press conference in Tehran June 22-3 with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov Amir-Abdollahian had condemned the US “using Nato tools” as one of the roots of the conflict, a reference to the alliance’s expansion in eastern Europe since 1999.

While Iran has far more imports from Russia than from Ukraine, like many other countries it is feeling the inflationary pinch of disruption in supplies. Iranian Oil Minister Javad Owji told the semi-official Iranian news agency the Young Journalists Club in May that Iran expected to import 5 million tonnes of grain, including some wheat, from Russia in the Iranian year ending March 2023. Tehran’s domestic wheat production is being hampered by low rainfall.

It was also noteworthy that Fars made no mention of the disputween the two countries over the Ukrainian airliner shot down in 2020 over Tehran by two missiles fired by the IRGC. Ukrain had been pursuing the case for a full accounting by Tehran and compensation before the Russian invasion.

An early end to the Ukraine war would not only ease pressure on the Iranian economy but placate those Iranians who have taken up the Ukrainian case, with some gathering outside the Russian embassy in Tehran back in February to chant “death to Putin.” The conservative Jomhouri Eslami newspaper has been firm in backing Ukraine’s cause and condemning Moscow.

The first UAV carrier flotilla of Iran’s Army, comprised of surface and subsurface units equipped with various types of combat, reconnaissance and kamikaze drones, was unveiled by the southern fleet of the Navy in a ceremony attended by Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army Major general Abdolrahim Mousavi and Commander of the Iranian Navy Commodore Shahram Irani. 

According to state media, the drones that were displayed on Friday included the Pelican, Arash, Homa, Chamrosh, Jubin, Ababil-4 and Bavar-5, but it was not clear how many vessels or drones were included in each unit, only that one ship carried 50 drones.

Mousavi said the reconnaissance drones have increased the intelligence sway of Iran’s vessels to hundreds of kilometers beyond the borders of the country, adding that the Navy’s suicide and combat drones have leveled up Iran’s deterrence power. 

US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan Monday said that Russia wants to obtain hundreds of drones from Iran, both for surveillance and attack, to use in its war in Ukraine, adding that Iran is “preparing to train Russian forces to use these UAVs with initial training sessions slated to begin as soon as early July.”

Iran is known to have supplied UAVs to its proxies in several countries across the Middle East.

“The Americans and Zionists (Israel) know very well the price of using the word 'force' against Iran,” Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi, spokesman for the Iranian armed forces, was quoted as saying by Iranian media on Friday.

According to a report by the Wall Street Journal on Thursday, Benny Gantz disclosed to Biden agreements with some Arab countries with whom Israel does not have official diplomatic ties. 

Saudi Arabia had signaled its backing for the so-called Abraham Accords under which the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain forged relations with Israel built on common commercial interests and worries about Iran. But Riyadh has stopped short of formally recognizing neighboring Israel.

Saudi Arabia will allow overflights to and from Israel, in a decision welcomed by Biden who is visiting the kingdom on Friday. He called the decision an important step towards building a more integrated and stable Middle East region.

The House of Representatives on Thursday backed legislation to work on establishing a joint Middle East air-defense alliance as part of the passage of the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act.

Last Thursday, Gantz revealed that in the period since the signing of the Abraham Accords some two years ago, there have been more than 150 meetings between Israeli defense officials with their counterparts across the Middle East, not including Jordan and Egypt, in which Israeli weapons have been sold to moderate Sunni Arab countries for over $3 billion.

The United States commentariat have focused both on a possible plea to the Saudis to pump more oil to ease American gasoline prices now near $5 a gallon and on the president’s shift from shunning Saudi crown prince Mohammad bin Salman as a pariah after the 2018 murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

A summit on Saturday of the Gulf-Cooperation Council (GCC) – the six Gulf nations broadly led by Saudi Arabia – alongside Egypt, Iraq and Jorden is widely expected to recognize, and perhaps enhance, existing air-defense cooperation with Israel, under US supervision, against Iranian and Iranian-supplied missiles and drones.

Israel’s 2020 ‘normalization’ agreement with Bahrain, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates have encouraged talk of ‘friendship’ and warm relations. In Israel, Biden made great play of his regard for Zionism, making scant reference to Israeli occupation of the West Bank and none to May’s killing of Palestinian-American journalist Shireen Aby Akleh.

He also said clearly for the first time that use of force against Iran remains on the table “as a last resort” to prevent Tehran to produce nuclear weapons.

‘Gigantic mistake’

But Biden also stressed in an interview with Channel 12 television his support for the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Diplomacy remained the best way to preclude Tehran from developing a weapon, Biden argued, and called predecessor Donald Trump’s taking the US out of the deal, a move backed by Israel, as a “gigantic mistake” that meant Iran was “closer to a nuclear weapon now than they were before.”

While Saudi Arabia remains open, like Israel, to further US arms supplies, there is clear skepticism in Riyadh over US intentions and a continuing reluctance to pivot too far in Washington’s direction. Analysts differ over Saudi’s practical ability to boost oil production, but even so Riyadh appears committed to the approach of the Opec+ grouping led by the Saudis alongside Russia, which agreed a modest increase in August after cutbacks at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Saudis wary, UAE rules out ‘Middle East Nato’

Saudi Arabia is wary over Biden’s commitment, following Trump, to downscale US involvement in the Middle East. Riyadh last year opened an Iraqi-mediated dialogue with Iran, from whom it broke diplomatic relations in 2016. Iraq will be the only majority-Shia and broadly Shia-led state at Friday’s GCC-plus-three summit.

The UAE is also hedging. The president’s diplomatic adviser Anwar Gagash said Friday that the Emirates did not support a confrontational approach to Iran and was working to send an ambassador to Tehran, filling the currently vacant post.

Gagash downplayed talk of a ‘Middle East Nato’ – built up from air-defense cooperation – as a “theoretical” concept. “We are open to cooperation, but not cooperation targeting any other country in the region and I specifically mention Iran,” he said. “The UAE is not going to be a party to any group of countries that sees confrontation as a direction, but we do have serious issues with Iran with its regional politics.”

In Tehran, following President Ebrahim Raisi’s warning of a “harsh” Iranian response to any “mistake” by the US and its allies, Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi mocked Biden Friday for his “sleepiness” when threatening force to halt the Iranian nuclear program. Iranian TV Friday announced Tehran’s first drone division in the Indian Ocean.

Some analysts have suggested in recent weeks that Iran stiffened its approach in JCPOA-revival talks with the US in Doha last month in part because of wariness that US mid-term elections could result in Republican Congressional majorities that would immediately undermine any agreement.