US Lifts Visa Ban For Those With Compulsory Service In Terror Groups

Ynet news website quoting the official late Friday [June 24] reported that at least one attack was thwarted in the last minute. The target of one of the Iranian squads was the former Israeli ambassador to Turkey and his wife.

“A squad watched over them and was on its way to assassinate them, but the attempt was prevented,” the source said.

Another squad tried to hit Israeli tourists. "Their murder was prevented at the last second. They captured the squad just before a deadly terrorist attack, just before a bullet in the head," he said.

Israel began warning its citizens not to travel to Turkey at the end of May and the alerts became more frequent in mid-June. Turkey announced on June 23 that it had arrested 8 people, five of them Iranians, who were plotting attacks.

Tensions soared between Iran and Israel with the assassination of a top Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) operative in Tehran on May 22. Two assailants on a motorbike fired several bullets at Col. Hassan Sayyad-Khodayari outside his home in broad daylight, prompting Iranian officials to accuse Israel of organizing the attack, and vowed revenge.

This incident was followed by more mysterious deaths of IRGC officers and weapons experts, which were again blamed on Israel that has not denied responsibility as it is engaged in a secret war with the Islamic Republic.

One apparent fallout of repeated killings and sabotage operations in Iran was the head of IRGC’s Intelligence organization who was abruptly dismissed on June 23. Hossein Ta’eb, who was in charge of the secretive organization in charge of both internal security and secrets operations abroad for more than a decade was reportedly pushed out by his rivals.

Iran International reported on Friday that according to its sources, other security and intelligence chiefs in Iran did not like Ta’eb’s push into their turfs and found his recent failures in preventing alleged Israeli attacks as an opportunity to ask the Supreme Leader to fire him.

The Israeli source told Ynet that his country’s tactics forced Ta’eb to make “a lot of mistakes”, which made it easier to stop the terror squads. The Iranian spy chief was under pressure to attack Israelis and that is when he lost temper and made mistakes, the source said.

Iran’s foreign ministry on Friday vehemently denied all reports about assassination plans in Turkey, calling them an Israeli plan to harm Tehran’s relations with Ankara. But some Turkish media reported that a group of Israeli tourists in the Biaoolo district, were stopped by Mossad agents as they entered their hotel and were whisked away in armored vehicles and returned to their country.

The source quoted by Ynet also said that warnings for Israelis not to visit Turkey still stand because there is the possibility of more Iranian squads still remaining in the country.

UANI Chief of Staff Claire Jungman published the photo of the tankers in a tweet on Friday explaining that Iranian tankers Daran and Golroo are discharging at the Baniyas SBM, while Arman 114 is engaged in an STS transfer with Traden, which is sailing under the flag of Cameroon after repairs in Turkey earlier this year.

In order to avoid detection of the destination of its cargo, Iran usually uses ship-to-ship transfers, in which the vessels turn off their transponders at the sea and secretly transfer oil cargo.

According to data by the UANI, Syria is the second largest importer of the Iranian oil after China. The Islamic Republic delivered more than 111,000 barrels of oil per day to Syria in the previous month.

It is not clear whether or how Iran is being paid for the shipments, whose value only for the month of May is over $400 million with current oil prices. 

Earlier in the month, UANI called on six Chinese banks to end all financial transactions with Iran.

As part of ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions introduced in 2018 on leaving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order threatening punitive US action against any third party dealing with Iran’s financial sector.

This relatively strong economic growth can partially explain Tehran’s current stonewalling of nuclear negotiations with the Biden administration, as Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei likely does not feel massive pressure to secure sanctions relief by striking a deal. If Washington were to reinvigorate its sanctions enforcement, however, it could reverse the Islamic Republic’s economic fortunes, stoke political instability within Iran, and pressure Khamenei to surrender.

According to Iran’s Statistics Center, the country’s GDP grew by 4.3 percent during the Persian calendar year 1400 (April 2021 to March 2022). The growth rate in the previous year was one percent. Almost all major sectors of the economy grew. Oil and gas saw the fastest growth rate, at 9.7 percent. The service sector, the largest sector of Iran’s economy, grew by 4.5 percent after having shrunk by 1.3 percent the previous year. This growth, however, does not mean that the economy is doing well. The real GDP is still below its March 2018 level, the point-to-point inflation was 52.5 percent in June, and the country faces daily protests and strikes over low wages and high inflation.

Several factors explain this higher growth. First, since taking office in January 2021, President Joe Biden has abandoned his predecessor’s policy of “maximum pressure” against Iran, leading to loose enforcement of U.S. sanctions against the Islamic Republic. Iran exported $48 billion worth of non-oil goods during the Persian year of 1400, the most in the country’s history. This trend has continued throughout the first two months of 1401 (April and May 2022), during which time Tehran exported 40 percent more oil year-over-year.

Meanwhile, Iran’s economy has benefited from higher prices of commodities, particularly oil and oil-based goods such as petrochemicals. The Islamic Republic also managed to replace some imported goods by expanding domestic production, in turn boosting Iran’s manufacturing and mining sectors. Finally, the removal of pandemic-related restrictions, combined with public optimism about reaching a deal with the United States to end sanctions, contributed to the growth in the service sector.

Iran’s renewed economic growth likely helps explain why Khamenei is in no rush to reach a nuclear deal with Biden. Loose U.S. sanctions enforcement has allowed Khamenei to reap economic benefits while expanding his nuclear program and eroding Washington’s leverage over Tehran.

Fortunately for the United States, however, Iran’s economy — and thus Khamenei’s negotiating position — remains fragile. If oil prices remain high and U.S. sanctions enforcement remains lackluster, the Islamic Republic could probably achieve 3to 5 percent growth this year. But a U.S. return to “maximum pressure” would likely see Iran’s economy return to meager or negative growth rates.

One sign of this fragility is that Iranian economic growth decelerated toward the end of the year, with GDP growing by just 2.3 percent during the last quarter (spring of 2022) compared to 6.9 percent during the first quarter (winter of 2021). That trend held true across most economic sectors. For example, whereas the oil and gas sector grew by 27.4 percent in the first quarter, its growth rate dropped to 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter. Likewise, the real estate sector grew 15.3 percent in the first quarter but shrank by 3.4 percent in the last quarter.

Moreover, the Islamic Republic has suffered from high inflation since late 2018, reducing purchasing power. This means that domestic consumption and demand are fragile. If the Biden administration tightens sanctions enforcement, consumer and investor pessimism will push down investment and consumption. The result will be a slowdown in economic activity and lower or negative GDP growth.

That economic downturn could exacerbate Iran’s ongoing socio-political instability, toppling his regime or increasing Khamenei’s incentive to reach a deal with Washington. Since 2017, the country has faced two waves of massive protests. In November 2019, the regime killed at least 1,500 protesters in less than a week to survive the most widespread protests of its history. Government restrictions and self-imposed isolation during COVID-19 slowed down the protests, but as those impediments faded, protests and worker strikes began again in 2021 and gained momentum in 2022. The protests and strikes now occurring daily across Iran reflect deep societal discontent, which can both signal and create economic troubles.

If the Biden administration continues with the status quo, it can expect Tehran to continue stonewalling, eliminating any chance of reaching an acceptable nuclear deal. Conversely, reviving maximum pressure could force Khamenei to play ball. With the Islamic Republic edging closer and closer toward a nuclear weapon, Biden doesn’t have any time

Saeed Ghasseminejad, who contributed this opinion article is a senior advisor on Iran and financial economics at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he contributes to FDD’s Iran Program and Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP). Follow Saeed on Twitter @SGhasseminejad. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, non-partisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

The opinions expressed by the author are not necessarily the views of Iran International.

Speaking to reporters in Tehran Friday, the ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh rejected Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid’s allegations about Iranian plots to attack Israeli citizens in Turkey. He described Israeli accusations as a “scenario to destroy relations between the two Muslim countries.”

"Our neighbor Turkey is well aware of the baseless allegations made by the deceitful, terrorist Zionist regime and we expect them not to remain silent about such divisive allegations," he added.

Commenting on Ankara’s announcement Thursday that its National Intelligence Organization (MIT) thwarted a planned attack against Israeli diplomats and tourists in Istanbul, Khatibzadeh also alleged that Tel Aviv is trying to divert Turkish and regional public opinion from the Palestinian cause and its own actions against Palestinians.

The MIT said Thursday that it detained eight suspects including five Iranian nationals and three others allegedly working for an Iranian intelligence cell working to assassinate Israeli citizens on Turkish soil.

In a joint press conference with his Turkish counterpart in Ankara on Thursday a few hours after the announcement, Lapid accused Iran of planning to attack Israelis in Turkey and thanked the Turkish government for taking action to foil the plots.

At the same press conference, the Turkish foreign minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu stressed Ankara’s security pact with Israel, contacts with his Israeli counterpart over terrorist threats against Israeli tourist, and said Turkey would “never allow such revenge and terror attacks against Israelis” on its soil.

“Necessary messages have already been given [to those who are responsible],” he added in a clear reference to Tehran.

“About a week ago they launched a psychological operation using false and orchestrated information to engage the media in fictitious scenarios to prepare the ground for the Israeli Foreign Minister's smear campaign," Khatibzadeh told reporters without making any mention of Turkish media reports about the arrests made by the MIT.

“Iran’s response to the Israeli regime’s assassination and sabotage will always be definite, authoritative and without threatening the security of ordinary citizens and the security of other countries,” Khatibzadeh insisted.

Ankara has canceled a planned visit by the Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian’s visit to Ankara in the past few days, apparently due to its frustration with Tehran’s alleged terrorist operations on its soil.

A further date for Amir-Abdollahian’s visit has not yet been announced. An informed Israeli source told Iran International’s correspondent in Tel Aviv that this was the second time in the past week that Ankara canceled the Iranian foreign minister’s visit.

Tel Aviv’s concerns over attacks on its citizens in Turkey have considerably increased following the assassination of Colonel Hassan Sayyad-Khodaei in Tehran last month.

Sayyad-Khodaei, the acting commander of the elite Unit 840 of the IRGC’s Qods (Quds) Force, was shot dead behind the wheel of his car outside his home May 22 by two gunmen who fled the scene on a motorbike.

A European security source last month told Iran International that Sayyad-Khodaei had been in charge of planning terrorist operations outside Iran, including attacks in India, Taiwan, Cyprus and Georgia. Suspicions for his assassination fell on Israel and according to some reports, Israeli officials told the United States that they had targeted Sayyad-Khodaei.

The Friday attack targeted an employee housing unit of the facilities and local television broadcasts showed a column of rising smoke near the field with sirens sounding, but there was no immediate word on possible casualties from the attack.

According to Sulaymaniyah's counter-terrorism service, a Katyusha rocket also landed inside Khor Mor --one of the biggest gas fields in Iraq -- on Wednesday but caused no damage. 

On Thursday, Dana Gas said that normal operations continued at Khor Mor. 

No group has claimed responsibility for either attack but armed groups that some Iraqi officials say are backed by the Islamic Republic have claimed similar attacks in the past.

In March, Iran fired missiles at Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan. No one was killed but missiles did damage to some residential buildings. Iran claimed it used 12 ballistic missiles in that attack and targeted an Israeli intelligence center.

Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein said earlier this month that Baghdad had submitted a formal complaint to Iran for its aggressive behaviors toward Iraq and the Kurdistan Autonomous Region, and denied Iran's allegations that the Israeli Mossad is present in Erbil, stressing that Iran must refrain from attacks on the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan.