US Treasury Sanctions 3 Individuals, 2 Terror Outfits Over IRGC Links

A police source told the Bangkok Post on Monday that the Royal Thai Police (RTP) has issued a secret order to officers across the country to keep an eye out for spies from Iran believed to be in the region after one was arrested in Indonesia last year.

According to the source, security agencies are closely monitoring the movements of Iranian nationals and gathering intelligence about some Shiite Thai Muslims who are suspected to be working as the Islamic Republic’s agents.

The source said the order cited an incident in May last year when Indonesian authorities were tipped off that a man named Ghassem Saberi Gilchalan arrived in the country carrying a fake Bulgarian passport.

He was arrested just before departing for Qatar, and was sentenced to two years in jail. Police found that he entered the country more than 10 times using false papers and had 11 mobile phones with the names of some Thai Muslims saved on them.

Following interrogations, Gilchalan confessed that he had been given several assignments by a former Iranian diplomat in Malaysia to act as a spy both there and in Indonesia several times, the latest of which involved lobbying Indonesian authorities to release the Iranian-flagged MT Horse oil tanker apprehended there January last year.

In May, an Israeli informed source told Iran International that security measures are tight around the Israeli embassy in the Indian capital New Delhi reportedly over a serious possibility of an attack by Iran-backed elements.

Late in May, President Ebrahim Raisi said Iran will “definitely” take revenge for the spectacular assassination of Revolutionary Guard Qods (Quds) Force colonel Hassan Sayyad-Khodaei in Tehran. Sayyad-Khodaei, who Israeli media say was the acting commander of an elite Qods Force unit, Unit 840, was shot dead behind the wheel of his car by two gunmen who fled the scene on a motorbike.

A few days later, Fars news website in Iran affiliated with the IRGC published an article profiling several Israeli businesspeople, using thinly veiled threatening language.

Moreover, conflicting reports are still circulating about the death of Iranian aerospace scientist Ayoob Entezari -- who held a PhD in mechanical and aerospace engineering -- with some calling it an assassination and government saying he died of food poisoning.

Reports about Entezari’s fate came a day after Iran confirmed the death of a colonel from the Quds Force, Ali Esmailzadeh of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iranian government and IRGC media said that Col. Esmailzadeh died “in an incident in recent days” at his home without mentioning any details after Iran International quoted sources in Iran as saying that the IRGC killed him over suspicions of espionage.

Last week, Israel issued a warning to citizens traveling or planning to travel to Turkey that they could be targeted by Iranian operatives seeking to avenge the recent assassination. The National Security Council explicitly identified “Iranian terrorist operatives” as being the source of the threat to Israelis in Turkey and nearby countries. Israel’s Channel 12 news reported on Sunday that Israel is considering expanding the travel warning to additional countries.

Early in May, a short audio recording was published by Israeli media with a photo of a man introduced as Iranian national Mansour Rasouli, 52. In the audio recording, Rasouli says he was sent to Turkey by the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) to establish an operational network to assassinate an Israeli diplomat in Istanbul, a Germany-based US general, and a journalist in France.

Later in May, Israel’s security agency Shin Bet uncovered an alleged plot by Iranian intelligence to lure Israeli academics and former defense officials to travel abroad in order to kidnap them. The Iranian operatives used the stolen identities and relevant cover stories in an attempt to gather intelligence about Israelis and to invite them to locations abroad -- some under the guise of a conference -- in order to abduct or harm them.

With oil prices up 50 percent in 2022 to almost $120 a barrel, Bloomberg reported a claim from Vitol Group, the world’s biggest independent crude trader, that the US might want to see more Iranian oil flow given mid-term elections looming in November.

Washington has since 2018, with its ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions, threatened punitive action against any third party buying Iranian crude or dealing with Tehran’s financial sector. While this slashed Iran’s exports from 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2017 to 400,000 bpd in 2020 with many buyers wary of being punished by the US, Iran is now selling around 800,000 bpd, mainly to China, and has developed means of hiding the trade from prying eyes.

Opec+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed last week to accelerate output increases and President Joe Biden’s scheduled visit to Riyadh, although postponed until July, may signal an improvement in strained Saudi-US relations even if Riyadh maintains its good relations with Moscow.

But Vitol’s head of Asia Mike Muller told Bloomberg that prospects for the global oil market were confused by constraints on Russian exports and by production weaknesses across Opec. “There are people who think the market’s going to $135-$140 a barrel,” he said. “And there are people who think we’re going below $100 again.”

US gasoline hits $4.80

Analysts and diplomats are sanguine over prospects for renewing the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), which would require the US ending ‘maximum pressure’ and lead to an additional 500,000-1 million bpd of Iranian oil reaching world markets.

Iran has around 100 million barrels in storage that could be eased onto the market even more quickly should the US turn a “blind eye” and ‘allow’ Iran to sell more oil. While Republicans and many Democrats oppose easing any Iran sanctions, especially ahead of Tehran returning its nuclear program to the limits set by the lapsed JCPOA, gasoline reaching $4.80 a gallon in the US, up from $3.80 in late February, piles political pressure on Biden and the Democratic Party.

Muller told Bloomberg he did not expect the US seizure of an Iranian-flagged vessel off Greece last month, which prompted Iran to detain two Greek tankers in the Persian Gulf, to signal more US tanker seizures.

Lawrence Norman of the Wall Street Journal tweeted that a well-informed source dismissed Vitol’s report that the Biden Administration might ‘allow’ Iran to sell more oil.

Critics of the Biden administration and supporters of ‘maximum pressure’ have accused the US of being lax in not taking more punitive action against buyers of Iranian crude. Nonetheless, Jason Brodsky, of the advocacy group United Against a Nuclear Iran, dismissed the Bloomberg report as “speculation.”

Lebanon warned Israel against any “aggressive action” when President Michel Aoun said any activity in the disputes area would amount to an act of aggression and a provocation.

Both countries are keen to develop considerable natural gas fields in the Mediterranean, but they have no diplomatic relations and Lebanese politics is dominated by Iran-backed militant Hezbollah group.

In 202 the United States tried to mediate between the two countries to reach a compromise over their maritime boundaries, but the indirect talks have not produce any results.

While Israel has more military and economic leverage to explore for gas, Lebanon’s military is no match, and it would not be easy for Beirut to secure participation by international investors. Lebanon desperately needs the potential income amid a catastrophic economic crisis since 2019.

There was no immediate response from Israel to Aoun's statement. Israeli Energy Minister Karine Elharrar welcomed the vessel's arrival and said she hoped it would be brought online quickly.

"We will continue to work to diversify the energy market and maintain stability and reliability," she said.

Gas production in eastern Mediterranean could potentially benefit Europe as it tries to replace Russian gas in the aftermath of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

The first delegation is expected to visit Washington on June 15 and will be led by Saudi Minister of Commerce Majid bin Abdullah al-Qasabi. The second, led by Investment Minister Khaled Al-Falih, is planned by the end of the month, Reuters reported quoting two unnamed officials on Saturday.

The delegations are expected to include dozens of government officials and Saudi company executives who will discuss agreements and deals in several sectors including transportation, logistics and renewable energy, they said.

Biden publicly acknowledged on Friday that he may travel to Saudi Arabia soon, a trip that multiple sources say is expected and could include talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

The visit would help mend relations with Saudi Arabia, which have come under strain because of a series of Biden administration policies, including on Yemen and nuclear talks with Iran.

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Biden is under pressure to increase world oil supplies and reduce prices as Riyadh has held back on pumping more oil.

"Regardless if Biden's visit takes place or not, both sides are working to restore ties on an institutional level and in different sectors," said one of the officials.

During the meeting with Grossi on Friday, Bennett reiterated that Israel has the right to halt the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program if the international community fails to do so.

The Israeli premier expressed mounting concerns about the danger of Iran’s progress in acquiring nuclear weapons, while “misleading the international community.” He urged the world to take action against Iran to prevent it from becoming a nuclear state.

The quick visit comes amid stalled Iran nuclear talks days and after Bennett published documents this week that he said can prove “Iran stole classified documents from the UN’s Atomic Agency and used that information to systematically evade nuclear probes.”

Earlier in the week, Israel's National Security Council chairman Eyal Hulata met his US counterpart Jake Sullivan in Washington, and announced their agreement to coordinate on efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and destabilizing the region.

The Vienna talks to restore the 2015 nuclear deal have stalled mainly because of Iran’s demand for the US to remove the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) from its terrorism list (FTO) and the recent missile attacks have shed more doubts whether Washington would take such a step.