Iran’s Detention Of Foreigners Frightens Investors, Says Former Diplomat

Speaking with Sharq newspaper in Tehran, Reza Shahrestani, a member of Iran’s steel producers’ associationsaid that Iran’s steel exports have stopped in the past two months as China, Afghanistan, Thailand and South Korea, Iran’s biggest customers have shifted their orders to Russia. He emphasized that this development has deprived Iran of more than $5 billion in steel exports so far.

Shahrestani warned the same scenario is being repeated in case of other metals and could also endanger petrochemical exports, which provide larger export revenues.

Iranian media and analysts have voiced concern in recent weeks that following international sanctions against Moscow, Russian oil has become cheaper and specially China will be enticed to buy crude from Russia instead of Iran.

Despite United States sanctions on oil exports, Tehran has been able to boost crude shipments since the Biden Administration began nuclear talks with Tehran and less enforcement of Trump-era restrictions against third parties doing business with Iran.

Iranian officials have been taking credit for the increase in crude deliveries and revenues, although it is not clear how much foreign currency has found its way into Tehran’s coffers. Some say China is paying Iran with deliveries of merchandise and not cash, which would not be easy with US banking sanctions in place against Iran.

In the four years since former president Donald Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear agreement and imposed oil export sanctions, Iran has tried to compensate for loss of oil revenue by boosting non-crude exports of petrochemicals and steel. In the last 12 months, Iran’s non-oil exports have reached close to $50 billion.

Shahrestani told Sharq that Russia is offering discounts of 15-20 percent on its steel and already the impact on Iran’s traditional markets is clear. Russia is reportedly also offering a $20 per barrel discount on its crude, which on world markets has climbed above $110 a barrel.

Iran’s steel industry also faces internal hurdles according to Reza Mohtashamipur, an official in the ministry of industry and mines, who told state television last month that a 17-22 percent tax on steel exports hurts the industry. He argued that the tax makes Iranian steel less competitive on international markets. While Iran had offered 15 percent cheaper steel to foreign buyers, Russia is now offering more discounts.

Another impediment for steel producers, according to Shahrestani is lack of electricity in peak seasons. With the approach of hot summer months, electricity is usually rationed, and steel mills receive less energy, which impedes production.

Reduction in export revenues come at a sensitive time for Iran as it has stopped food import subsidies to save foreign currency, triggering a sudden jump in prices. Many analysts and former politicians have been warning of mass protests as millions of people face hunger. Already sporadic anti-government protests have been taking place in smaller cities and towns, but large cities have not erupted.

Amnesty International’s Deputy Director for the Middle East and North Africa Diana Eltahawy said, “The Iranian authorities are using Ahmadreza Djalali’s life as a pawn in a cruel political game, escalating their threats to execute him in retaliation for their demands going unmet. The authorities are attempting to pervert the course of justice in Sweden and Belgium, and should be investigated for the crime of hostage taking".

“The Iranian authorities must halt any plans to execute Djalali, release him immediately and offer reparations for the harm they have caused him,” she added.

Djalali was arrested while visiting Iran on an invitation by a university in 2016 and consequently sentenced to death on unsubstantiated charges of espionage for Israel. Espionage is a charge Iran often uses against foreigners and dual nationals that they want to hold as a bargaining chip.

Amnesty provided a detailed research and analysis to prove that the Iranian authorities are threatening to execute Djalali to compel Belgium and Sweden to hand over two imprisoned former officials, and “to deter them and others from future prosecutions of Iranian officials”.

There has been speculation that the announcement of Djalali’s execution was intended to influence the trial in Sweden of Hamid Nouri, a former Iranian official, over his alleged role in a wave of prison executions in Iran in 1988.

In an interview with The National published Thursday, General Erik Kurilla of Centcom (Central Command) said the US was also concerned about surging food and fuel prices, and the growing influence of China.

Kurilla travelled to Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia less than 45 days after taking the command to hear from America’s strategic partners, he said. The US relationships with the UAE and Saudi Arabia have been strained, while Egypt faces food shortages with 85 percent of its wheat imported from Russia or Ukraine.

Kurilla said that Iran’s uranium enrichment, ballistic missile development, and regional alliances, particularly with Ansar Allah, or the Houthis, in Yemen, had repeatedly been central to his conversations.

“The United States' position is that we will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon, however, our concerns about Iran go far beyond their nuclear capability and ambitions,” he said.

Referring to Ansar Allah attacks on Saudi Arabia and the UAE since 2021 – following the Saudi military intervention in Yemen in 2015 – Kurilla said he sought an “integrated air and missile defense program in support of the kingdom [Saudi Arabia] and the Emirates.” His predecessor General Kenneth F McKenzie said during his farewell visit that Iran was the region’s “principal bad actor.”

He made the remarks during an interview on Wednesday at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University in the United States.

In response to a question about how to approach the issues created by Iran across the region, Jordan's ruler said that "we want everybody to be part of a new Middle East and to move forward, but we do have security challenges. We're seeing border attacks on a regular basis and we know who's behind that".

He described Russia's presence in southern Syria as a "source of calm because they were making sure that we could deconflict” but as Russia is reportedly removing troops to focus on Ukraine, “that vacuum will be filled by the Iranians and their proxies, so unfortunately, we're looking at maybe an escalation of problems on our borders".

"Do the politics, the negotiations that are going on between Saudia Arabia, the [Persian] Gulf countries, the United States, does that move Iran into a more positive light? I hope so. I'm not seeing it on the ground at the moment," King Abdullah added.

According to a report by the Moscow Times, an independent Dutch-based paper, Iran forces and Lebanese group Hezbollah have taken over several Russian military bases in Syria.

Iran Diplomacy, a website close to the Iranian Foreign Ministry, says Russian forces' withdrawal from Syria, and the possibility of Iranian forces replacing them could be an indication that Moscow is trying to keep Iran in its camp.

In recent days some Iranian activists and groups have complained about restriction on public access to their direct messages as well as removal of hashtags, videos, and posts related to ongoing protests in the country.

‘1500 Tasvir’ which runs popular Instagram and Twitter accounts dedicated to Iranian politics and protests said on Twitter Tuesday that it can no longer access videos sent to their Instagram account by citizen reporters in Iran.

In January Instagram also removed posts with the hashtag #IWillLightACandleToo which many used to commemorate 176 victims who died when Iran’s Revolutionary Guard in January 2020 fired two missiles at a Ukrainian passenger plane near Tehran. Instagram later apologized and said the hashtag had been “restricted by mistake.”

Instagram also explained that the restriction was due to the hashtag being “reported” by other users for not meeting Instagram community guidelines.

In April 2019, Instagram also deleted accounts of many current and previous Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) commanders after the US designated the IRGC a ‘foreign terrorist organization.’

BBC’s sources alleged that pro-regime employees of the German branch of Telus International, a Canadian contractor which provides content moderation to Instagram, are responsible for restricting anti-government content of Iranian users.

One the sources told the BBC that pro-regime employees would first report certain hashtags, posts and accounts for violation of Instagram rules during their breaks when they could use their personal mobile phones and then remove the post or account based on their own anonymous reports.

The source currently working for Telus, who the BBC report introduced with the alias Mehdi, said the company had over 400 Iranian employees for reviewing Persian-language content.

In response to BBC Persian’s enquiry, Meta – the mother company of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp – said decisions of its 15,000 staff who review content in 70 languages , including Persian, were also reviewed to establish their fairness. Meta also said it had not found any evidence of restriction of a hashtag related to recent protests in Iran’s Hafshajan.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei who is ultimately responsible for all human rights violations in the country has multiple accounts on Instagram and the company has not acted to take them down despite many appeals aby activists.

Instagram which has around 45 million users in Iran is the only major social media platform not blocked in the country where other platforms such as Facebook, YouTube, WhatsApp, Twitter, and Telegram cannot be accessed without the use of anti-filtering software and VPNs.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei who often refers to pro-regime cyber propagandists as “soldiers” in a soft war, has repeatedly criticized slow progress in launching a regulated national internet network.

The National Information Network (NIN) to be established under the Fifth Development Plan Act, is a system of control over internet access and content, blocking websites and social-media platforms deemed religiously or politically unacceptable

Iran has one of the world’s worse internet censorships, with tens of thousands of websites blocked since the early 2000s and most social media platforms banned. In the absence of free media and the very high level of censorship, many Iranians turn to social media for political news and information.