Iran’s establishment is bracing for renewed public unrest as UN sanctions squeeze an already fragile economy, Reuters reported, citing officials and experts warning that the government’s options to avert crisis are narrowing.
“The establishment knows protests are inevitable, it is only a matter of time ... The problem is growing, while our options are shrinking,” according to one Iranian official quoted by Reuters.
The sanctions, reimposed last month after the collapse of nuclear talks, have accelerated inflation, weakened the rial, and pushed millions further into poverty. The national currency has fallen past 1.1 million to the dollar, while inflation remainsabout 40%.
Officials told Reuters that high-level meetings have been held in Tehran to manage “simmering public anger” and prevent a repeat of past protests that shook the country.
“Mounting distress could reignite mass protests among lower- and middle-income Iranians,” a second official said.
The government, they said, blames the United States, its allies, and Israel for using sanctions to “fuel unrest” and threaten the Islamic Republic’s survival.
“The impact of the UN sanctions will be severe and multifaceted, deepening the country’s longstanding structural and financial vulnerabilities,” said Umud Shokri, an energy strategist at George Mason University. “The government is struggling to maintain stability as sanctions disrupt trade, banking, and oil exports.”
While Iran continues to rely on discounted crude sales to China, officials told Reuters that even this lifeline could weaken if Beijingseeks to ease tensions with Washington.
The prospect of deepening hardship has heightened fears within the establishment of another wave of street protests like those that erupted in 2019 and 2022 over fuel prices and compulsory hijab enforcement.
With unemployment rising and living costs soaring, the government’s reliance on security measures to preserve order risks backfiring, analysts warn.
As one Tehran-based trader put it: “When people lose faith in the currency, they lose faith in the system.”
The current state of China–Iran relations is unusually difficult to assess. Both governments continue to affirm their “strategic partnership,” but beyond the rhetoric the reality is less clear.
On paper, the two countries are bound by a 25-year cooperation agreement signed in 2021, covering trade, infrastructure, energy and security.
Yet China has remained notably cautious during Iran’s recent crises. Despite being Tehran’s largest oil customer and a key diplomatic partner, Beijing largely stayed on the sidelines as Israeli strikes hit Iranian territory.
In practice, the partnership operates within strict limits. While Sino-Iranian economic relations have been stagnating, China’s ties with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies have expanded dramatically.
Expectations meet caution
During the 12-day confrontation with Israel, some Chinese analysts urged a more proactive role—mediation, public condemnation of Israeli strikes or closer military cooperation.
But Beijing did little, triggering accusations in Tehran that it failed to grasp the Islamic Republic’s strategic value in its rivalry with the United States.
China should have done more, many asserted, rarely elaborating on what that more could look like.
Direct military or political backing, however, would have risked confrontation with Washington and jeopardized China’s broader regional network.
Oil as quiet support
Where China’s support has been most tangible is in energy trade. The world's top importer of oil is Iran's main, almost sole, customer.
Despite sanctions, imports of Iranian crude have continued to grow in 2025, with tankers often re-flagged or disguised to evade detection. This provides Tehran with a crucial lifeline.
For Beijing, the motive is less political than practical: discounted Iranian oil fits its strategy of stockpiling reserves and securing cheap energy while global prices remain low.
Dependence by default
With UN sanctions back in force, Iran faces renewed isolation from global finance, trade, and technology. That leaves Tehran even more dependent on a handful of partners—above all, China.
A recent review of Iranian media published by the ChinaMed Project confirms this.Iran’s leaders—or at least parts of the elite—prize strategic autonomy and resent reliance on any single power, yet options are scarce.
Russia, itself sanctioned and weakened, offers little beyond rhetoric. China, by contrast, provides trade, energy purchases, and a degree of diplomatic cover, making it Iran’s indispensable partner whether Tehran likes it or not.
The trajectory of Iran-Saudi relations will be decisive. If détente holds, Tehran may find limited room to maneuver; if it collapses, dependence on Beijing will only deepen.
Looking ahead
The return of UN sanctions on Iran coincides with Donald Trump’s unveiling of a new peace plan.
Beijing’s official line is that it “welcomes all efforts” toward peace based on a two-state solution. Chinese experts, however, are skeptical, arguing that peace will be impossible without recognizing Palestinian statehood—a position long enshrined in Chinese diplomacy.
Many Chinese commentators also see Trump’s plan as a US bid to reassert dominance, protect Israel’s interests, and strengthen Arab-Israeli ties.
Beijing opposes none of these in principle, but grows wary when they appear designed to isolate Tehran further, potentially undermining China’s own mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Beijing’s challenge is to sustain its balancing act: maintaining economic ties with Tehran, preserving partnerships with Iran’s Arab neighbors, and avoiding direct confrontation with Washington.
For Tehran, choices are narrowing. The more isolated it becomes, the more it must rely on China, even if that means accepting a subordinate position in the relationship.
China’s support for Iran remains significant but measured, rooted more in calculation than ideology. As sanctions bite and isolation deepens, Beijing’s role may grow—but within limits that protect China’s own interests above all.
Speaking at her weekly press briefing, Fatemeh Mohajerani said, “Hijab cannot be restored to society by force... The president has repeatedly said that we certainly cannot bring hijab back to people through coercion.”
She added that the government respects all existing laws but emphasized that social norms should be upheld through cultural engagement rather than force.
Mohajerani added that the government seeks to prevent the hijab debate from deepening social divisions.
“We must ensure,” she said, “that defending social values does not come at the cost of dividing our people.”
“We are a Muslim society,” she pointed out. “We must take care not to create divisions. While we believe inappropriate public behavior should be addressed, it is something that requires the cooperation of all citizens.”
Her remarks came after Tehran’s Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice headquarters said this month that 80,000 trained volunteers would be deployed across the capital as part of a new “hijab and chastity situation room.”
The initiative, announced by conservative officials, will rely on local monitoring and cooperation with cyber police and prosecutors.
No extra budget for hijab enforcement
Mohajerani also denied that any dedicated funding had been assigned for the recently announced mobilization, saying that “no special budget has been allocated for such programs.”
She added that Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) -- headed by the president -- remained the ultimate authority on matters related to social order and security.
The new hijab enforcement drive has drawn concern among reformist politicians and clerics who warn that policing public behavior risks further division.
Cleric Abdolkarim Behjatpour, a senior member of Iran’s Institute for Islamic Culture and Thought, told ILNA news agency this week that if the campaign “turns into arrests and imprisonment, it will harm the system.”
He said moral guidance “must be delivered politely, with compassion and dignity, not through enforcement that creates social rifts.”
Another senior cleric and member of the Society of Seminary Teachers in Qom, Mohsen Faghihi, said on Tuesday that “inviting people to observe hijab should not involve confrontation, morality patrols, or imprisonment,” warning that such measures only create tension and division.
However, Abbas Ka'bi, a senior cleric and member of Iran’s Assembly of Experts, warned earlier this week against what he described as neglect over hijab enforcement, calling it a religious and legal duty of all state institutions.
He described hijab as an asset "protecting Iran’s Islamic identity from Western moral decline," and urged coordinated, well-planned action by cultural, security, and judicial bodies to prevent what he called the spread of immorality.
Since the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini in the custody of Iran’s morality police, enforcing compulsory hijab has become increasingly difficult, and the state’s ability to impose the rules has sharply eroded, particularly in major cities.
Since then, many women have continued to appear unveiled in public despite warnings, fines, and the return of hijab patrol vans, turning defiance into a daily act of resistance.
In recent months, however, authorities have revived enforcement drives through mobile patrol vans, increased fines, and business closures targeting cafés and shops accused of noncompliance.
Judiciary spokesman Ali-Asghar Jahangir said earlier this month that hijab laws remain in force, though enforcement methods have shifted toward targeting businesses rather than individuals.
