• العربية
  • فارسی
Brand
  • Iran Insight
  • Politics
  • Economy
  • Analysis
  • Special Report
  • Opinion
  • Podcast
  • Iran Insight
  • Politics
  • Economy
  • Analysis
  • Special Report
  • Opinion
  • Podcast
  • Theme
  • Language
    • العربية
    • فارسی
  • Iran Insight
  • Politics
  • Economy
  • Analysis
  • Special Report
  • Opinion
  • Podcast
All rights reserved for Volant Media UK Limited
volant media logo
INSIGHT

Denial dominates Iran’s parliament, but sanctions toll hard to ignore

Behrouz Turani
Behrouz Turani

Iran International

Oct 2, 2025, 08:19 GMT+1Updated: 00:32 GMT+0
Iranian lawmakers greet each other at the beginning of a session, Tehran, Iran, September 27, 2025
Iranian lawmakers greet each other at the beginning of a session, Tehran, Iran, September 27, 2025

While Iran’s hardline-led parliament resounds with defiant statements dismissing the impact of new UN sanctions, a few lawmakers are beginning to admit the likely economic toll.

Independent MP Hamid Reza Goudarzi broke ranks on Wednesday, saying the so-called snapback of measures halted under the 2015 nuclear deal has “damaged Iran’s economy.”

His remarks drew sharp criticism from colleagues but resonated with many outside parliament who are struggling with higher prices and a collapsing currency.

The rial, which hovered around one million to the US dollar before the sanctions’ return, surged past 1,160,000 by midday Wednesday, a new low. Food and basic staples are increasingly out of reach.

Another moderate MP, Salman Eshaghi, lamented the strain on his constituents in eastern Iran: “People can no longer afford meat, chicken, rice and other staples,” he said, urging the judiciary to summon local and national officials over the price hikes.

But the dominant voices in the Majles remain combative.

‘They want riots’

Vahid Ahmadi, a member of the National Security and Foreign Relations Committee, dismissed the currency crash as a “psychological” effect.

“Nothing has happened as a result of the snapback,” he insisted. “The rise in exchange rates has no economic reason.”

Ahmadi argued that sanctions were simply a continuation of war by other means: “The 12-day war against Iran was intended to trigger regime change and national disintegration. Now that our enemies have failed and begged for a ceasefire, they aim to confront the Islamic Republic through snapback sanctions.”

Another senior MP Ahmad Rastineh echoed this line: “the snapback is designed to incite riots in Iran,” he asserted. “We seek the destruction of Israel, and we will continue to pursue that goal.”

Cracks in hardline narrative?

Hossein Ali Haji Deligani, notorious for his incendiary remarks, took it a step further.

“The European troika is a slave and servant of the United States,” he said. “It is not in Iran’s interest to remain in the 2015 nuclear deal or the Non-Proliferation Treaty.”

Many interpreted this as an open call to review Iran’s nuclear doctrine, edging toward weaponization.

Such hardline voices dominate Iran’s parliament, but cracks are widening as economic pressure intensifies.

Hossein Samsami, an MP for Tehran, tied rising prices directly to the collapsing exchange rate, contradicting colleagues who blamed foreign plots or “psychology.”

The fact that even conservative outlets like the Students News Network are publishing such remarks shows how far the looming crisis has pushed officials: denial still dominates, but moments of candor are breaking through.

Most Viewed

Iran diplomacy wobbles as factions compete to avoid looking soft on US
1
INSIGHT

Iran diplomacy wobbles as factions compete to avoid looking soft on US

2
ANALYSIS

The politics of pink: how Iran uses cuteness to rebrand violence

3

Scam messages seek crypto for ships’ safe passage through Hormuz, firm warns

4
EXCLUSIVE

Family told missing teen was alive, then received his body 60 days later

5
TEHRAN INSIDER

The future has been switched off here

Banner
Banner

Spotlight

  • Diplomacy tolls at Hormuz as conflict returns to its doorstep
    OPINION

    Diplomacy tolls at Hormuz as conflict returns to its doorstep

  • Opposition to US talks grows in Tehran as ceasefire deadline nears
    INSIGHT

    Opposition to US talks grows in Tehran as ceasefire deadline nears

  • Tehran moderates see ‘no deal–no war’ limbo as worst outcome
    INSIGHT

    Tehran moderates see ‘no deal–no war’ limbo as worst outcome

  • The future has been switched off here
    TEHRAN INSIDER

    The future has been switched off here

  • Lights out, then gunfire: Witnesses recount Mashhad protest crackdown
    VOICES FROM IRAN

    Lights out, then gunfire: Witnesses recount Mashhad protest crackdown

  • Is Iran entering its Gorbachev moment?
    INSIGHT

    Is Iran entering its Gorbachev moment?

•
•
•

More Stories

Decades of defiance: why Khamenei still believes time is on his side

Oct 1, 2025, 21:10 GMT+1
•
Lawdan Bazargan

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei blocked any potential signal of compromise before President Masoud Pezeshkian even landed in New York—a move some saw as a reckless gamble but in fact a calculated strategy rooted in decades of survival.

By calling negotiations with the United States “pointless” and “harmful,” the 86-year-old theocrat closed the door in advance, after which Pezeshkian delivered one of the harshest speeches of his career on the UN rostrum.

The choreography left no doubt: foreign policy remains Khamenei’s domain, and presidents, however reform-minded are confined to carrying out his script.

Since taking power in 1989, Khamenei has built a structure designed to withstand shocks. He has consolidated control over the military, judiciary and intelligence services, silenced dissent before it could spread, and constructed a security state that has absorbed everything from economic collapse to mass protest.

Khamenei’s doctrine is simple: so long as no foreign power places “boots on the ground” in Tehran, the Islamic Republic can survive.

Regimes in neighboring Iraq and Afghanistan collapsed only when foreign armies physically invaded. Iran’s ruler wagers that Israel lacks the capacity — and Washington the will — to do the same in Iran.

Weapon of time

Airstrikes, sabotage and cyberattacks may wound the system, but the Islamic Republic has bunkers intelligence tools designed to outlast them. This is the logic of endurance: time, not compromise, is Tehran’s strongest weapon.

Yet the June war with Israel revealed how fragile that calculation may be. Precision strikes and AI-driven targeting allowed Israel to decapitate Iranian command structures in hours.

For the first time, senior officers rather than foot soldiers became the primary casualties, along with hundreds of civilians. In such a war, no bunker guarantees safety.

Khamenei’s confidence is shaped not only by military assumptions but also by diplomacy.

One formative lesson came in 1997, when a German court found Iran responsible for the assassinations of three dissidents in a Berlin restaurant. European states briefly withdrew their ambassadors in protest, only to quietly return them months later.

For Khamenei, this was proof that Europe’s resolve is fleeting, its economic and political interests overriding its outrage. He has leaned on that lesson ever since.

Sanctions, what sanctions?

Even now, as the snapback mechanism is reactivated, he assumes enforcement will fray. He expects Europe’s divisions and Washington’s caution to leave loopholes that allow Iran to keep exporting oil, especially to China and India, at discounted rates.

Sanctions, in the octogenarian’s view, are never airtight. They are survivable obstacles, not existential threats.

Khamenei’s rhetoric serves multiple aims: it projects deterrence abroad by drawing red lines; reassures loyalists at home by projecting strength; frames any Western retreat as weakness; and, above all, buys time.

The longer Iran resists, the thinking goes, the more likely international resolve will weaken—as it has before.

But the strategy is not without risk.

Internal unrest can erupt faster and wider this time. Sanctions may dig deeper into the economy, hollowing out the state’s support base. Warfare itself has changed in ways that undercut the assumption that endurance alone ensures survival.

Khamenei continues to rely on the playbook that has carried him through three decades: repression at home, resilience abroad and a conviction that the West will ultimately step back.

The gamble is that history will repeat itself. The danger is that this time, it may not.

Iran watchdog clears tougher espionage law targeting Israel, US cooperation

Oct 1, 2025, 13:27 GMT+1

Iran’s Guardian Council on Wednesday approved a bill imposing harsher penalties for espionage and collaboration with Israel, the United States and other “hostile states,” clearing the way for the law to be enacted once signed by President Masoud Pezeshkian.

The legislation, formally titled the “Intensification of Punishment for Espionage and Cooperation with the Zionist Regime and Hostile States Against National Security and Interests,” was passed by parliament in late June following the 12-day war between Iran and Israel.

The Guardian Council, a powerful 12-member body of clerics and jurists that vets legislation and elections in Iran, initially sent the bill back in July citing ambiguities, but said after revisions it no longer conflicted with Islamic law or the constitution.

  • New Iran espionage law halted for review, slowing post-war crackdown

    New Iran espionage law halted for review, slowing post-war crackdown

  • Iran's parliament approves death penalty for cooperation with Israel, US

    Iran's parliament approves death penalty for cooperation with Israel, US

The measure classifies espionage or intelligence cooperation with Israel and the US as “corruption on earth,” a charge under Iran’s penal code that can carry the death penalty.

It also criminalizes providing information, media content or assistance to groups deemed hostile, with prison sentences ranging from two to 15 years depending on the offense.

  • Iran executes man accused of spying for Israel

    Iran executes man accused of spying for Israel

  • Iran hangs nuclear scientist over alleged espionage for Israel’s Mossad

    Iran hangs nuclear scientist over alleged espionage for Israel’s Mossad

Supporters say the law is needed to counter infiltration and disinformation. “Any cooperation in media or propaganda activity, including sending videos or images to hostile channels that weaken public morale or create division, undermines national security and will face severe judicial response,” said Ebrahim Azizi, a former Revolutionary Guards commander and head of parliament’s national security committee.

  • Iran arrests over 700 accused of spying for Israel amid espionage crackdown

    Iran arrests over 700 accused of spying for Israel amid espionage crackdown

  • Iran to execute over 100 inmates over Israel spying charges - Sunday Times

    Iran to execute over 100 inmates over Israel spying charges - Sunday Times

The bill follows the June conflict in which Israeli airstrikes targeted Iranian nuclear and missile sites, prompting Tehran to retaliate with hundreds of missile and drone launches.

Iranian authorities later announced the arrest of hundreds of people accused of spying for Israel and the US.

Rights advocates have expressed concern that the law’s broad definitions, including provisions applying retroactively, could restrict free expression and be used against journalists and activists.

After June war, is the Islamic Republic due for a 'paradigm shift'?

Sep 30, 2025, 20:23 GMT+1
•
Behrouz Turani

Once relegated to the world of academic social science, the term "paradigm shift" has gained traction in Iran's political discourse after a punishing 12-day war with Israel and the United States exposed the country's weakness.

With new international sanctions set to deepen economic suffering and no diplomatic or domestic opening yet visible, the severity of Iran's predicament is clear.

The term "paradigm shift" has become a euphemism for fundamental change to Iran’s political system, specifically, curbing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s nearly four decades of autocratic rule.

As Iran's primary and often sole decision-maker, Khamenei has shaped not only strategic affairs but also the daily operations of government, media and public life.

But a remarkable exchange between two natural political opponents aired by an independent media outlet appears to show that both sides of the political spectrum grasp the need for a profound shift, albeit couched in politically inoffensive terms.

On September 29, the Iranian website Entekhab posted a YouTube video featuring a debate between two prominent figures: Mohammad Reza Bahonar, a conservative heavyweight and member of the Expediency Council and Abolfazl Shakouri Rad, former leader of the reformist Unity of the Nation Party.

In the 90-minute video, Bahonar emphasized that a paradigm shift does not mean regime change.

“It’s not about abandoning principles,” he said. “It’s about adapting them to new realities. The revolution’s core, Islamic governance and independence, remains intact. But the world has changed. We can’t ignore the demands of the youth or the country’s economic challenges.”

Shakouri Rad agreed, framing the shift in terms of Thomas Kuhn’s theory of scientific revolutions: “This is Kuhn’s paradigm shift applied to politics, old models collapse under pressure. Iran is facing this due to sanctions, demographics and technological globalization.”

Kuhn (1922–1996) was an American historian and philosopher of science who popularized the concept of paradigm shifts.

'Mini-shifts'

Bahonar noted that Iran has experienced “mini-shifts” before, under President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani (1989–1997), who pursued economic liberalization, and President Mohammad Khatami (1997–2005) who pushed for reforms despite resistance from Khamenei.

These shifts, Bahonar argued, were pragmatic rather than ideological.

Shakouri Rad added historical context: “Paradigm shifts often occur during crises like the 1979 revolution or the 1988 ceasefire with Iraq. Today, we’re in a post-heroic phase. War veterans no longer dominate politics. Over 60% of the population is under 30. They demand transparency and reject the resistance narrative.”

Bahonar called for economic reform as the cornerstone of any shift: “The Resistance Economy is a good idea, but it will fail without global engagement. Sanctions have crippled us. A real shift requires pragmatic diplomacy. Domestically, we must decentralize power and empower local councils.”

Shakouri Rad focused on ideological reform, touching on the foundational theocratic doctrine of the country.

“Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Jurist) needs reinterpretation, not abolition. We must transition from exporting revolution to practicing defensive realism," he said.

Despite their differences, both politicians agreed on the need for generational transition. Shakouri Rad elaborated: “We need a hybrid model of Islamic values with modern efficiency, like Turkey’s early Erdogan era. The solution is bottom-up change through elections, not top-down fatwas. Data shows 70% of Iranians want better ties with the West.”

Bahonar warned of the risks of delay: “If the shift is too slow, economic collapse could trigger unrest.” Shakouri Rad echoed the concern: “Without change, brain drain will accelerate.”

Responding to viewers’ questions at the end of the segment, Bahonar reiterated: “Shift means dialogue, not submission. Change is an Islamic duty. The ‘evolve or perish’ idea isn’t Western—it’s Quranic adaptation.”

Sanctions response betrays Tehran's entrenched divides, policy drift

Sep 30, 2025, 07:54 GMT+1

One thing unchanged by the return of UN sanctions is Tehran’s internal discord, with hardliners and moderates battling it out over decisions ultimately taken elsewhere.

Responses to the so-called snapback range from combative to despairing: hardliners celebrating, reformists urging more diplomacy and maverick parliamentarians calling for withdrawal from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty or even building nuclear weapons. Amidst it all, the government appears adrift.

Read more...

Sanctions response betrays Tehran's entrenched divides, policy drift

Sep 30, 2025, 07:50 GMT+1
•
Behrouz Turani

One thing unchanged by the return of UN sanctions is Tehran’s internal discord, with hardliners and moderates battling it out over decisions ultimately taken elsewhere.

Responses to the so-called snapback range from combative to despairing: hardliners celebrating, reformists urging more diplomacy and maverick parliamentarians calling for withdrawal from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty or even building nuclear weapons. Amidst it all, the government appears adrift.

President Masoud Pezeshkian on Monday blamed Iran’s predicament on European states that activated the trigger mechanism, calling them “filthy and mean” without even attempting to lay out what he thinks lies ahead.

“They want us to surrender,” the president told a group of firefighters in Tehran. As for the response, “people have to resist.”

Other officials have responded with angry calls to withdraw from the NPT, ignoring the fact that exiting the treaty would further convince a skeptical West that Tehran’s self-styled peaceful nuclear program is veering toward weaponization.

Even more alarming are calls from parliamentarians and others to build nuclear weapons.

‘We should compromise’

Amid this flurry of reactionary rhetoric, sociologist Taghi Azad Armaki stood out with a different message.

“Iran should say that it is not standing against the rest of the world and that it is not going to fight the world,” he told moderate daily Etemad on Monday. “We should say that we are … ready to compromise,” Armaki added.

“The government is unable to say that, but civil society can … We should be part of the world, and not allow the world to unite against us.”

Armaki’s heartfelt pleas recall a Persian tale in which mice resolve to put a bell on a cat, only to admit none knew how—or dared— to do it.

Tall order

The only person who can end Tehran's confrontation with the West is the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. Iran's ultimate decision-maker can instruct Pezeshkian to stop calling world leaders “filthy” and engage.

Since the vote last Friday, France and the UK have stressed that the snapback of UN sanctions should not mark the end of dialogue. But Iran’s current posture suggests that its temper may take time to cool and that incentives may be needed to bring it back to the table.

And that won’t be easy given hardliners' staunch opposition.

“Iran’s return to the negotiating table will not happen easily,” conservative politician Mohammad Hassan Asafari told Nameh News on Monday.

Among the many suggestions for Iran’s next move, Jomhouri Eslami editor Massih Mohajeri and Ham Mihan proprietor Gholamhossein Karbaschi noted that state TV and hardliners appear jubilant over the snapback.

Elephant in the room

Sociologist Armaki urged the government to limit hardliners’ airtime—ignoring, like almost every other voice in Tehran, the elephant in the room.

Ultimately, all decisions in Iran hinge on one man, who decided to air his views against talks with Washington hours before Pezeshkian landed in New York.

Moderate analyst Hadi Alami Fariman came close to addressing the core issue on Monday, but fell short.

“Iran has to choose between tension and diplomacy,” Fariman told reformist outlet Rouydad24. “We will not get any result without reforms … in our political structure.”

That silence underscores the impasse: until the real seat of power acknowledges the need for change, Iran’s answer to sanctions will remain more bluster than strategy.