Sanctions, strikes, or stalemate: Iran’s perilous September

The paper said the gatherings take place every Thursday, with around 100 people holding placards demanding clarity on their cases. Many applicants told Shargh they have been left in “suspension,” with neither approvals nor rejections issued.

Some of the protesters are family members applying for reunification visas. “I have been separated from my wife and children for more than three years. I completed my interview in May but since then there has been no answer,” one applicant, Masoud, was quoted as saying.

Students and jobseekers at risk

Others said they risk losing jobs or university placements. Bita, who has an offer to study for a master’s degree in Germany, said her semester begins in October but no interview date has been set. “The risk of missing my term is real, and then I may have to start the whole process again,” she said.

Shargh estimated more than 6,000 people face delays, including some 4,000 in family reunification cases. Applicants accused Germany of discriminatory treatment, pointing to faster processing in neighboring countries.

Reduced embassy services

The protests follow Germany’s announcement last month that its Tehran embassy would operate at reduced capacity after Ambassador Markus Potzel ended his mission, citing “personal reasons.” Berlin said staff cuts would mean stricter visa issuance.

Impact of the June war

Several embassies scaled back or suspended consular services in Iran during and after the June conflict with Israel, leaving thousands of passports stuck in foreign missions. While some countries have since resumed normal operations, Germany has continued to restrict services.

In the hardline Kayhan daily, columnist Jafar Bolouri described the country’s situation as “extraordinary,” cautioning that a new war could erupt at any moment alongside worsening economic and social pressure. He said the government’s priorities “do not match the situation,” accusing it of focusing on secondary issues instead of inflation, which “creates openings for enemies to exploit.”

The IRGC-linked Javan wrote that Western powers, unable to achieve their goals in the June 12-day war, are now using the snapback process as part of a “cognitive war” to inflame the economy and provoke unrest. “Supporters of the Zionist regime…exploit the snapback and hostile media to stir inflation, currency volatility and social unrest,” the paper said, warning that “domestic infiltrators” amplify these pressures.

The reformist Ham Mihan criticized what it called complacency among officials. “Snapback leads to the return of Security Council resolutions and gives sanctions a binding legal character. Evading them will be very difficult and costly,” the paper said. It added: “Some believe snapback adds little to existing sanctions. Such an interpretation is completely wrong.”

Snapback countdown

On August 28, Britain, France and Germany triggered the UN snapback mechanism, demanding that Tehran return to talks, grant inspectors wider access and account for its uranium stockpile. Under Resolution 2231, sanctions will automatically return after 30 days unless the Security Council votes otherwise.

Tehran has rejected the step. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas in Doha on Thursday that the decision was “illegal and unjustifiable,” and insisted that the EU should “play its role in fulfilling its responsibilities to neutralize moves against diplomacy.”

IAEA report raises alarm

A confidential report by the International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% remains “a matter of serious concern” after inspectors lost visibility following Israeli and US strikes in June. The report noted Iran had 440.9 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium as of June 13, a short step from weapons-grade levels.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi told Reuters: “It would be ideal to reach an agreement before next week. It’s not something that can drag on for months.”

Officials downplay risks

Not all voices share the newspapers’ sense of alarm. IRGC political deputy Yadollah Javani called snapback talk a “psychological operation” to mask Western defeat in the June war. Babak Negahdari, head of parliament’s research center, argued that “the real pressure on Iran has come from US secondary sanctions,” and said any UN measures could be blunted by Russia and China, though he acknowledged “psychological and economic side effects if not handled carefully.”

Former presidential chief of staff Mahmoud Vaezi stressed that “some individuals do not understand the sensitivity of this moment” and warned against rhetoric that fuels division. He said the 12-day war had proved “national cohesion has completely overturned the enemy’s calculations,” and urged leaders to focus on preserving unity.

Ali Akbar Velayati, a top foreign policy adviser to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said on Friday Trump’s actions resembled the aggressive policies of Nazi Germany before the Second World War.

“Political experts believe that Trump pursued a path once tested by the head of Nazi Germany, who managed to terrify the Western world by starting World War II in September 1939. In practice, Hitler’s bullying tactics were repeated by Trump,” he told the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News.

Velayati said Western powers today are acquiescing to Trump just as Britain, France and Italy once fell under Hitler’s sway.

“At that time Britain was at the peak of its power, France had been strong since Napoleon, and Italy rose after Garibaldi. These three were intimidated by Hitler, and now history has repeated itself."

"Mr. Trump, without learning from the past, is walking the same path — a path that will not be favorable to him,” he added.

China-led bloc to decide word's fate in future

Earlier this week, China hosted the leaders of Russia, India, North Korea, and Iran at a Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin. The gathering, along with a Chinese military parade on its sidelines, was widely seen as a show of strength directed at archrival America.

“Mr. Xi Jinping, after years of successful governance, was able at this summit to reap the fruits of the important and measured efforts he had pursued based on Chinese wisdom, and even brought his longtime rival, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to Beijing," Velayati said.

He also cited Trump’s recent Alaska pact concerning Ukraine, signed “without consulting his Western counterparts,” and said the Shanghai summit showed the move had quickly backfired.

China has shown “patience and composure in silencing Trump’s footsteps,” Velayati said, adding that Beijing is calmly countering US pressure.

The policy of relying on Asia or the East, particularly China and Russia, was promulgated by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in 2018, with the catchphrase, “Looking East”.

"We should look East, not West. Pinning our hope on the West or Europe would belittle us as we will have to beg them for favors and they will do nothing," Khamenei said in a speech in October 2018.

The Daily Express said men of Middle Eastern and Eastern European origin living in the UK have been approached to form informal networks of sleeper cells and lone-wolf actors.

“An arm of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has used the internet and social media to put in place an informal but complex mosaic of sleeper cells and lone-wolf operatives across the country, ready to act at the behest of the regime," the report added.

The Daily Express said their main roles involve spying, intimidation, and harassment, but claimed MI5 agents had uncovered at least one bomb plot that “could have been as devastating as the 7/7 London bombings," the suicide attacks in central London on 7 July 2005 that killed 56 people and injured 784 others.

On Thursday, the British government said it "has long recognized there is a persistent and growing physical threat to people posed by Iran to the UK."

"Direct action against UK targets has substantially increased over recent years," the government wrote, vowing to counter Iran's escalating attacks on the UK soil.

"We have taken significant steps to ensure the safety of UK citizens and ensure our
world-leading law enforcement and intelligence agencies have the tools they need to
disrupt and degrade the threats that we face from Iran," the government added.

The government report came in the form of point-by-point responses to a July 10 Parliamentary Intelligence and Security Committee on Iran which said Iran poses one of the gravest state-based threats to British national security, on par those from Russia and China.

The government confirmed parliament's findings that Iranian intelligence has developed close ties with criminal gangs "to expand the capability of its networks and obscure their involvement in malign activity."

The parliamentary report concluded Iran is increasingly willing to carry out assassinations, espionage and cyber attacks within the United Kingdom

Tehran's embassy in London at the time rejected the allegations as "baseless, politically motivated and hostile claims."

Grajewski told Iran International's Eye for Iran that only Washington can break the deadlock by re-engaging directly with Tehran and backing a short extension that ties International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections to credible security guarantees.

In June, Israel waged a 12-day air campaign against Iranian nuclear and military sites; the United States followed with bunker-buster attacks on fortified facilities at Natanz, Esfahan, and Fordow.

Tehran responded by restricting IAEA access. Soon after, Britain, France, and Germany — the E3 — formally invoked snapback under UN Security Council Resolution 2231. The mechanism automatically restores pre-2015 UN sanctions in 30 days unless the Council unanimously endorses continued relief.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused Europe of “acquiescing” to Washington and Israel and warned any reinstated sanctions would be “null and void.” Iranian lawmakers have threatened to quit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)—the cornerstone pact that obliges Iran to cooperate with the IAEA — if UN sanctions return.

Grajewski warned that such a step could be a trigger for war.

“Iran could withdraw from the NPT. And this is where you might see another conflict between Iran and Israel, more Israeli strikes on Iran’s program,” she said. “They’ll use the excuse that now we can’t see Iran’s nuclear program. We no longer have inspectors.”

She also cautioned against overreliance on force. “It’s unclear what we could have achieved with diplomacy. And it’s also clear that military action alone can’t solve the Iranian nuclear issue,” she said. President Donald Trump, for his part, has defended the June strikes as necessary.

What can Washington do now?

Grajewski urged the United States to resume direct or indirect talks, press for restored IAEA access, and offer a narrow, conditional assurance: no new strikes on nuclear facilities during a brief extension, so long as Iran meets inspection and transparency benchmarks. That package, she argued, could unlock a six-month snapback extension and lower the odds of escalation.

Moscow has floated a counter-resolution at the UN and, as Grajewski noted, is adept at using UN procedures to delay investigations and enforcement.

Grajewski tied today’s impasse back to the collapse of the 2015 nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

“Had the JCPOA remained in force, we probably wouldn’t have seen the 12-day war,” she said. But she added that Tehran overplayed its hand: “Iran has made so many terrible decisions… showing off their capabilities” exposed weaknesses and hardened adversaries’ resolve.

For now, the file sits on a knife-edge. “A crisis is not inevitable,” Grajewski concluded. “It’s possible and it’s somewhat likely — either a diplomatic crisis with NPT withdrawal or potentially something kinetic. But it’s not a foregone conclusion.”

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