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ANALYSIS

Tehran’s denial after wartime thrashing may deepen its peril

Roozbeh Mirebrahimi
Roozbeh Mirebrahimi

Iran International

Sep 3, 2025, 17:24 GMT+1Updated: 01:38 GMT+0
A worker stands inside a Tehran building destroyed by an Israeli strike, June 2025
A worker stands inside a Tehran building destroyed by an Israeli strike, June 2025

New lows once unthinkable in Iran—from assassinations of senior officials to the gutting of air defenses—have already been plumbed, yet Tehran’s rulers remain impervious to these new realities, inviting the prospect of an even harsher reckoning.

The first decisive break came with the 2019 assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, the commander who embodied Iran’s regional network of armed allies and whose elimination was once considered beyond the realm of possibility.

For years, Soleimani symbolized Iran’s ability to project influence across the Middle East. Western policymakers and Israeli officials acknowledged his central role in destabilizing the region, but the notion of his actually being killed was long dismissed as outlandish.

Memoirs and statements from American and Israeli officials confirm he was repeatedly in their crosshairs until January 2020, when President Donald Trump ordered a drone strike on his convoy in Baghdad.

The attack, initially conceived as a joint mission with Israel before it withdrew at the last moment, shattered the regime’s myth of its own invincibility.

Arms broken

Soleimani’s death not only removed Iran’s most visible strategist but also disrupted the command structure of its allied armed groups—damage that remains unrepaired.

If Soleimani’s killing marked the first taboo broken, the next was direct military action on Iranian soil.

For decades, the idea of such strikes lingered at the margins of debate. It was occasionally invoked as a deterrent but rarely treated as feasible.

That barrier has now fallen.

Israeli and American precision airstrikes and even temporary control of Iranian airspace have made operations inside Iran a lived reality.

The bombing of sites deep within the country shows that thresholds once thought inviolable have already been crossed.

Head in the sand

In today’s climate, where the targeting of senior officials has become normalized and attacks on Iranian territory draw limited diplomatic shock, Tehran continues to pursue demands increasingly out of step with global realities.

The Islamic Republic’s insistence on uranium enrichment and nuclear advances, after years of secrecy and deception, has lost its leverage.

None of the old deterrents carry weight: not threats to close strategic straits, not promises of “harsh revenge,” not missile parades or military drills.

What once projected strength now reads as ritual.

By denying the scale of these shifts and clinging to exhausted strategies, Iran’s leaders only accelerate the erosion of their position.

What was once taboo—strikes on leaders, attacks on Iranian territory—is now well-trod precedent, and Tehran’s refusal to confront these realities may only hasten its own undoing.

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Foreign tourist arrivals to Iran plummet 75% after 12-day war, minister says

Sep 3, 2025, 11:09 GMT+1

Foreign arrivals plunged 75 percent since the 12-day war with Israel, Iran’s tourism minister said Wednesday, while international outlets recently reported new visa restrictions imposed by the Islamic Republic.

Reza Salehi Amiri, minister of cultural heritage, tourism and handicrafts, said plans for recovery were underway amid the challenges posed by the war. “The policy we defined for after the recent war is the product of lengthy expert work in the ministry,” he said.

However, he said that recovery was contingent on broader security conditions. “Our forecast is that within the next six months, if stability is defined and threats removed, we can return to our previous program,” he said.

New visa hurdles

Iran’s foreign ministry enacted new restrictions on visitor entry in the wake of the war, the Travel and Tour World website reported last month. The rules ban individual travel, require official contracts with registered agencies, and oblige travelers to provide their hotel bookings and complete itineraries. A licensed guide must accompany tourists throughout their stay.

Visa applicants must also submit résumés, education records, travel history, and links to their social media accounts, with embassy reviews stretching up to three weeks, according to the outlet. In July, other industry websites circulated the same requirements, which took effect on August 1.

Foreign tourists in Iran's Isfahan (Undated)
100%
Foreign tourists in Iran's Isfahan

According to August figures, arrivals had already fallen 53 percent from the year before, the deputy tourism minister, Anoushirvan Mohseni Bandpey, said, attributing the decline to the 12-day war and what he called a campaign of Iranophobia.

Industry strain

Hotel operators have likewise cited losses. Cancellations in western provinces had reached billions of rials, Jamshid Hamzezadeh, head of Iran’s hoteliers’ association, told state media in July.

“Travel has effectively fallen out of priority in many people’s lives,” he said.

Iran’s hotel industry faces challenges that long predate the war. Inflation and stagnant household incomes had already pushed travel out of reach for many families, concentrating spending on food and housing.

The country has also seen a downturn following international warnings from countries such as the US warning against travel to Iran citing fears of arbitrary detention, especially for dual nationals.

Foreign tourists in Iran
100%
Foreign tourists in Iran

Salehi Amiri said last year that the ministry was planning to expand accommodation capacity. “We are obliged to open 100 hotels annually,” he said, adding that many of Iran’s 1,430 existing hotels fall short of international standards.

The discussion about building this number of hotels comes while, according to industry officials, the current newly built hotels do not even have the minimum number of guests to cover their expenses.

The newspaper Payam-e Ma criticized Salehi Amiri's remarks. "It would be better, since the minister himself has said that many hotels are not in a position to attract tourists, for the government to focus on standardizing existing hotels instead of opening new ones," he said.

The country, historically known for its rich cultural and historical heritage as well as its natural beauty, has struggled to attract foreign tourists in recent years. Despite its allure, the country faced challenges such as strict dress codes for women and restrictions on alcohol and nightlife.

Data from the Statistical Center of the Islamic Republic shows that the number of incoming tourists to Iran in 2023 was 6.4 million, up from 4.2 million in 2022, when the Woman, Life, Freedom protests rocked the country.

However, before the pandemic, the peak of foreign tourist arrivals to Iran was in 2018 and 2019, with 7.8 million and 8.8 million tourists entering the country, respectively.

Israeli minister endorses Reza Pahlavi for Iran regime change

Sep 3, 2025, 03:30 GMT+1

Israel supports exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi as Iranians trust and back him, Science Minister Gila Gamliel told Iran International, in the first explicit endorsement by an Israeli cabinet member of the exiled prince’s push for regime change.

Gamliel said Israel backs Prince Pahlavi, calling him a figure trusted by the Iranian people.

“The choice belongs to the Iranian nation, but we see that Iranians believe in Reza Pahlavi and support him. We in Israel also support him, because we see the people of Iran standing with him,” she told Iran International’s Babak Es'haghi.

Pahlavi traveled to Israel in 2023 at the invitation of then-intelligence minister Gamliel and met Benjamin Netanyahu. However, this is the first time a Netanyahu cabinet member is publicly expressing Israeli support for Pahlavi to overthrow the Islamic Republic.

In June, Israel commenced heavy bombing of Iran’s nuclear and military sites and was preparing a final wave of attacks aimed at toppling Iran’s ruling system when US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire, The Washington Post reported in July, citing Israeli and American officials involved in the operation.

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Sporadic protests have erupted in parts of Iran after the 12-day war with Israel, mainly over water and power shortages and poverty, but their scope has remained limited.

“No one expects people to take to the streets in the middle of a war," Gamliel told Iran International. "But we showed them their government is very weak. We are dealing with a regime that harms both its people and the world.”

“I firmly believe that when the Iranian people decide on change, we will stand with them with all our strength and goodwill," the Israeli minister said.

Asked about Israel’s vision for relations with Iran following a possible regime change, she said: “We see a future where the two nations cooperate. We have solutions for many of Iran’s problems in agriculture, energy, water, and technology.”

Both Netanyahu and former prime minister Naftali Bennett have previously expressed readiness to help Iranians with water and electricity crises after a regime change.

Prince's team in Israel

Gamliel made the remarks after hosting a delegation of experts dispatched by the exiled prince to Israel.

“The delegation sent by Prince Reza Pahlavi came to receive this knowledge and expertise. We hope one day to continue this cooperation in Tehran,” Gamliel said. “The Iranian people are not alone. We are here to respond, to offer solutions, and to build a better shared future.”

She invoked historic ties, saying: “We truly believe Iranians and Israelis must return to cooperation dating back 2,500 years, when Cyrus the Great allowed Jews to build the Second Temple. Together with Prince Reza Pahlavi and the Prime Minister, we aim to reach a Cyrus Accord —like the Abraham Accords—binding our nations politically, historically and culturally.”

Pahlavi’s senior adviser Saeed Ghasseminejad echoed that message, calling the Cyrus Accord “a symbol of historic Iran-Israel bonds” that could evolve into strategic partnership. He said Israel’s expertise in technology, management and policymaking could help future Iran tackle crises from water shortages to energy and infrastructure.

Pahlavi himself thanked Israel on X, writing: “Thank you, President Isaac Herzog and Minister Gila Gamliel, for welcoming my delegation of experts at a time when the Iranian people are suffering from a severe water crisis, electric shortages, and a collapsing economy. This mission is part of the Iran Prosperity Project, a blueprint for Iran’s rebirth aimed at unlocking our nation’s full potential after the fall of the Islamic Republic.”

He added that Iranian and Israeli experts would not only address the hardships brought about by the Islamic Republic but also “lay the groundwork for the future Cyrus Accords between Israel and a free, democratic, and prosperous Iran—strengthening the deep ties between our nations, envisioned by Cyrus the Great 2,500 years ago."

Mixed signals on new nuclear talks suggest rifts in Tehran

Sep 2, 2025, 21:51 GMT+1
•
Maryam Sinaiee

A senior cleric’s claim that Iran’s Supreme Leader endorsed new indirect talks with Washington has raised questions about divisions in Tehran, after Ali Khamenei himself appeared to rule out negotiations in a recent speech.

“The principle of negotiation, even in an indirect form with the United States, was endorsed by the Leader after the war,” said Abdolhossein Khosropanah, Secretary of the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution.

Days earlier, on August 24, Khamenei had struck a very different tone, eschewing talks and accusing Washington of seeking Iran’s “surrender.”

The veteran theocrat called the standoff over Tehran's nuclear program “unsolvable” and vowed the Islamic Republic would never bow to US pressure.

Khosropanah’s apparently conflicting citation surprised many. “Why would an official from a cultural body comment on national security?” analyst Damoon Mohammadi told Iran International.

Khamenei, he suggested, may have deliberately floated the idea through an unlikely figure to test domestic reaction.

The contrasting statements underscore intensifying infighting over Iran’s future course.

With the stakes raised by the 12-day war with Israel and the looming prospect of UN sanctions snapping back, Tehran’s factions are split between those urging pragmatic engagement and hardliners who insist any compromise would mean capitulation.

Moderates push diplomacy

President Masoud Pezeshkian has hinted at cautious engagement, despite heavy criticism at home.

Meeting Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in China, he said Iran was ready for indirect dialogue with Washington so long as its nuclear rights were recognized.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei echoed that line, saying Tehran would reinstate IAEA inspections and reduce enrichment to 3.67% if its sovereign right to enrichment were respected.

Hardliners resist

Former negotiator Saeed Jalili remains fiercely opposed, likening pro-diplomacy figures in early August to the Israelites who worshipped the golden calf in Moses’ absence—a possible jab at officials emboldened by Khamenei’s limited public appearances since the war.

Ultra-conservative commentator Mohammadsadegh Shahbazi wrote on X: “There are options beyond negotiation. International structures can be challenged. We must show that Europe and America are not our only paths.”

Washington unmoved

Despite the rhetoric, officials acknowledge Washington has shown no interest in talks. Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi told Iranian media managers in a closed-door meeting Saturday—according to information obtained by Iran International—that the White House had ignored Tehran’s outreach.

Another deputy, Kazem Gharibabadi, reportedly disclosed last week: “We have sent messages to Washington 15 times in different ways to restart the negotiations, but we have not received any response.”

The last round, mediated by Oman, collapsed when the US demanded Iran curb enrichment on its own soil—a demand Khamenei branded a red line. With diplomacy stalled, Israel struck Iranian sites, triggering the 12-day war.

Yemen's Houthis attack another Red Sea ship after Israel kills PM

Sep 2, 2025, 17:13 GMT+1

The Iran-backed Houthi movement said they targeted a cargo ship in the Red Sea as it was sailing toward Israel, the second attack in less than a week after the Jewish state assassinated Yemen's Houthi-aligned prime minister.

The Tehran-backed group also launched four drones at Israel, including at Tel Aviv, a Houthi spokesman said on Tuesday. Israel has not confirmed the claims.

On Monday, the group launched a missile towards the Israeli-owned chemical tanker Scarlet Ray, causing no damage.

The attack follows the killing of the prime minister of Houthi-controlled parts of Yemen Ahmed al-Rahawi and several cabinet members in an Israeli strike on the capital Sana'a last week, which the group vowed to avenge.

On Monday, thousands of mourners attended a funeral at the largest mosque in Yemen's capital Sanaa for those killed.

"We are facing the strongest intelligence empire in the world, the one that targeted the government ... the US administration, the Zionist entity, the Zionist Arabs and the spies inside Yemen," Mohammed Miftah, de facto head of the government told mourners at the country's sprawling main mosque.

The armed religious group, which controls around two-thirds of Yemen's population in one-third of its territory, began a maritime blockade in the Red Sea in November 2023, in what they call a show of solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.

The group has since launched scores of drones and missiles towards Israel in addition to targeting around 100 international ships, resulting in the sinking of four vessels and the deaths of at least eight mariners, according to the Associated Press figures.

Iran security council move shines faint light on post-Khamenei future

Sep 2, 2025, 15:28 GMT+1
•
Behrouz Turani

Iran’s new security chief Ali Larijani has appointed a longtime rival as his deputy at the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), in a sign of potential shifting power dynamics at the apex of power at a delicate moment.

The August 31 appointment of Ali Bagheri Kani carries implications for factional rivalries, the role of Iran’s powerful clerical families and the looming question of succession to supreme leader Ali Khamenei.

Some observers, including former parliament security committee chair Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, see the decision as an effort to placate hardliners—a view echoed by the conservative outlet Nameh News.

Others, such as commentators on Khabar Online, a platform close to Larijani, argue it reflects a coordinated bid by influential clerical clans to consolidate power.

Both outlets avoided linking the maneuver to 86-year-old Khamenei’s eventual exit, though many analysts consider succession the unavoidable backdrop.

‘A silent figure’

Bagheri Kani is best remembered as deputy to ultraconservative Saeed Jalili at the SNSC in the late 2000s, when the pair became known for their hardline stance in nuclear talks.

US negotiator William Burns, in his book The Back Channel: American Diplomacy in a Disordered World, described Jalili as a battle-scarred ideologue who had “learned the hard way in the trenches (of the Iran-Iraq war) that Iran could trust no one.”

Bagheri, Burns recalled, was “a silent figure” — a presence, but not yet a voice. The duo took over nuclear talks after Larijani stepped down following disputes with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s administration.

Now Larijani, Bagheri and Jalili must work together again, as Jalili also sits on the SNSC as Khamenei’s representative.

Tensions are already evident: last week, hardliners in the Majles pressed Larijani to explain why he ignored legislation demanding Iran’s withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Revolutionary or not?

Bagheri himself has shown signs of shifting.

In 2024, the hardline daily Sobh-e Now noted that he had grown critical of those “disguised as defenders of revolutionary values” who cast negotiations as betrayal.

Etemad Daily highlighted the contrast with Jalili, citing Khamenei’s rebuke of Jalili for holding unauthorized bilateral talks with Burns.

Bagheri, by contrast, said he would never conduct technical negotiations with US experts but still defended diplomacy as a vital tool: “Those who attack negotiations as counter-revolutionary behavior wish to rob the Islamic Republic of negotiations as an effective tool. Politics is the arena of beliefs, rationality and intelligence.”

Criticism from the hardline Paydari Party's deputies has reinforced the perception that Bagheri has moved away from his earlier ultraconservative line.

His remarks on Europe also suggested pragmatism: “The potentials of the East do not mean we should ignore other potentials. Europe has never been on our blacklist. We will welcome their cooperation as much as they wish to play a role in Iran’s development.”

Establishment and succession

The appointment also underscores the weight of Iran’s clerical dynasties.

Bagheri is part of the powerful Kani clan, son of former Expediency Council member Mohammad Bagher Bagheri Kani, with a brother married into Khamenei’s family.

Larijani, meanwhile, belongs to another dynasty: the sons of the late Ayatollah Mirza Hashem Larijani, with brothers tied by marriage to Grand Ayatollah Vahid Khorasani and Ayatollah Morteza Motahari.

These families, wealthy and deeply embedded in clerical life, form a dominant bloc within the Islamic Republic.

Against this backdrop, Larijani’s choice to elevate Bagheri looks less like conciliation and more like strategic positioning in a system bracing for transition.

With succession looming and clerical clans maneuvering for influence, even a deputy appointment at the SNSC reverberates beyond the bureaucracy—into the struggle over who will shape the post-Khamenei order.