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Israeli attacks on Syria risk allowing Iran a comeback, expert warns

Negar Mojtahedi
Negar Mojtahedi

Iran International

Jul 25, 2025, 19:53 GMT+1Updated: 05:56 GMT+0
Israel conducted powerful airstrikes on July 16, 2025, targeting key government sites in Damascus, including the Defence Ministry, military headquarters, and locations near the presidential palace, reportedly killing at least one and injuring many more.
Israel conducted powerful airstrikes on July 16, 2025, targeting key government sites in Damascus, including the Defence Ministry, military headquarters, and locations near the presidential palace, reportedly killing at least one and injuring many more.

Israel’s attack on Damascus may unintentionally clear a path for its arch-foe Iran to regain influence in war-torn Syria, warns Thomas Juneau, a professor at the University of Ottawa's Graduate School of Public and International Relations.

“The best way to prevent Iran from rebuilding its influence in the new Syria is to have a strong Syria... weakening the new Syria goes exactly against that,” Juneau told Eye for Iran. “That’s why I struggle to see how Israel, in the longer term, is acting in favor of its own interests.”

Israel launched airstrikes on Syria's defense ministry and an area adjoining the presidential palace on July 16 following days of sectarian killings between Bedouin tribes and members of the Druze minority in southern Syria.

Israel cited a need to protect the Druze, an ethnoreligious community which also lives in Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported on Sunday that the past week’s violence killed 1,120 people, including 427 Druze fighters, 298 Druze civilians, 354 government security forces and 21 Sunni Bedouin.

But the Israeli strikes may risk destabilizing the already fragile central government of former jihadist-turned-president Ahmed al-Sharaa, Juneau said.

“To actively work against the creation of a new Syria, where there is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity now... this could easily fall back against Israel itself,” said Juneau, an associate fellow with the Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa Program.

“The more unstable the new Syria is, the more it creates openings for Iran to rebuild its influence.”

Israel appears to be adamantly opposed to the new rulers of Damascus.

Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli called for Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa to be assassinated in a statement posted in both English and Hebrew on his X account on July 15.

“Anyone who thinks Ahmad al-Sharaa is a legitimate leader is gravely mistaken — he is a terrorist, a barbaric murderer who should be eliminated without delay,” Chikli wrote.

The next day, Israeli jets pounded heart of Damascus, in an attack that was caught live on a news broadcast as the anchor ducked for cover.

A large flag flying outside the stricken defense ministry which replaced that of the ousted Assad dynasty dictatorship was left shredded.

US Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack has taken aim at Israel’s intervention, describing the strikes to the Associated Press as “poorly timed” and a setback to ongoing efforts to stabilize the region.

Tehran eyes comeback amid Syrian chaos

Iran is likely exploiting Syria’s current instability to reactivate dormant networks tied to the former Assad regime, said Juneau, who previously served as the Canadian Department of National Defense's strategic policy analyst focused on the Middle East.

“There is no doubt in my mind that the Islamic Republic will try—probably already is trying—to rebuild its influence networks in Syria, especially with dissatisfied elements and former regime elements,” he told Eye for Iran.

Under Bashar al-Assad, Syria had become Iran’s closest state ally, acting as a conduit for arms to Hezbollah, a strategic launchpad for attacks against Israel, and a hub for Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders and loyalist militias.

Al-Sharaa, Syria's de facto president, has taken steps to block Iranian re-entry into Syria, including cutting arms transfer routes to Hezbollah that would be used against Israel and working to prevent the return of Iranian influence.

Israeli strikes playing into Iran's hands?

Iran has long justified its refusal to negotiate or normalize ties with Israel on ideological and strategic grounds. But Juneau warned that Israel’s current actions could validate Tehran’s narrative that diplomacy is futile.

“What message does it send when Israel not only hits Iranian and former Iranian assets in Syria, but actively hits the new Syrian government?” he asked. “I think it sends a very negative message... to the Sharaa administration itself, which has clearly said it has no hostile intentions towards its neighbors, including Israel.”

You can watch the full episode of Eye for Iran on YouTube or listen on any major podcast platform like Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music and Castbox.

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Khamenei concedes 'heavy blow' but says Israel's war failed

Jul 25, 2025, 17:55 GMT+1

Iran’s Supreme Leader on Friday described Israel's killing of top military commanders and scientists in a war last month as a heavy blow but insisted Tehran's arch-enemy failed in its goal to weaken Tehran.

"The blow was delivered by the wicked and criminal Zionist ruling group, which is the vile and hostile enemy of the Iranian nation," Khamenei said in a message commemorating the 40th day after the killing of the senior military commanders and scientists.

"Without a doubt, the loss of commanders such as the martyrs Baqeri, Salami, Rashid, Hajizadeh, Shadmani and other military personnel, as well as scientists like the martyrs Tehranchi, Abbasi and other scholars, is heavy for any nation, but the foolish and shortsighted enemy did not achieve its goal," he added.

Khamenei said the Islamic Revolution's military and scientific progress would soon "press forward faster than before toward lofty horizons."

The defiant remarks by Iran's 86-year-old veteran theocrat signal no retreat from decades of official hostility to Israel and the United States despite the recent military setback and mounting economic problems.

Israel launched a surprise military campaign on Iran on June 13 that hit military, nuclear, and civilian sites nationwide, kiling hundreds of senior Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and civilians.

Iran retaliated with ballistic missile and drone attacks on Israel, killing 27 civilians. Iran says 1,062 people were killed during the 12-day conflict with Israel, including 786 military personnel and 276 civilians.

During the June conflict, Israel's air force took control of Iranian airspace, delivering a significant blow to the country's air defenses, while Iran's armed forces responded with successive waves of missile and drone attacks on Israeli territory.

In his message on Friday, Khamenei urged Iran's military commanders to "increasingly equip the country with tools for safeguarding security and national independence."

He also called for the acceleration of the country's "scientific and technological advancement in all sectors."

Israeli military officials say that 120 air defense systems were destroyed or disabled since the first wave of attacks—around a third of Iran’s pre-war total.

Long-range systems, including Russian-supplied S-300s and Iran’s Bavar-373 batteries, were among those targeted.

Iran says it pushed back on sanctions threat in Europe nuclear talks

Jul 25, 2025, 15:43 GMT+1

Iran challenged European powers over their threat to renew UN sanctions during nuclear talks in Istanbul on Friday, Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said, in the first negotiations since Israeli and US attacks last month.

Gharibabadi said he and Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht Ravanchi led what he called “serious, frank, and detailed” discussions with Britain, France and Germany. The meeting focused on sanctions relief and the future of the 2015 nuclear deal, with both sides presenting specific proposals and agreeing to continue consultations.

“We explained our principled positions, including on the so-called snapback mechanism,” Gharibabadi wrote on X, adding that Tehran strongly criticized the E3’s stance on last month’s military strikes.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said earlier in the day that the talks were a “test of realism” for the E3 and warned against any effort to extend UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which expires in October.

Baghaei said the three powers had “no legal standing” to pursue such a move and accused them of aligning with the United States and Israel and Israel.

Iran did not reject a European offer to extend the UN resolution tied to the 2015 nuclear deal during talks in Istanbul on Friday, The Wall Street Journal’s Laurence Norman reported citing a European diplomat.

Norman said the meeting produced no breakthrough or breakdown and involved meaningful discussion as the E3 and EU offered a clear diplomatic proposal, with the European side prepared to pursue snapback sanctions but also expressed openness to an extension if Iran takes certain steps.

“There was a sense until recently that Iran seemed uninterested in any extension. Today that seems to have shifted,” Norman said on X, describing the talks as a potential turning point ahead of a decision expected by the end of August.

The Financial Times cited Western diplomats as saying that the E3 is considering offering Iran a delay in reimposing sanctions if Tehran resumes cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and engages with Washington. Without progress, the snapback could be triggered by mid-September.

Gharibabadi said a technical IAEA team will travel to Tehran in the coming weeks, but inspections of nuclear facilities are not planned. Any future cooperation, he added, will depend on Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and laws passed in response to the June strikes.

IAEA says Iran open to technical talks, inspections on hold

Jul 25, 2025, 11:30 GMT+1

Iran has signaled readiness to resume technical-level discussions with the UN nuclear watchdog, though IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said Friday that any planned visit would not yet involve inspectors.

Speaking in Singapore, Grossi said the agency had proposed talks with Tehran on “the modalities as to how to restart or begin [inspections] again,” beginning with procedural issues and potentially moving to high-level consultations later.

Grossi emphasized the urgency of re-engagement, warning that the agency still lacks updated information on Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. “This is why it is so important that we engage as soon as possible and that we can start our inspection,” he said.

Iran suspended cooperation with the IAEA following last month’s Israeli and US airstrikes on its nuclear facilities, accusing agency chief Rafael Grossi of bias and failing to condemn the attacks.

Iran says IAEA visit will not include nuclear site inspections

On Friday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said a senior IAEA official is expected to visit Tehran in the coming weeks for talks on a new cooperation framework, but emphasized that there are no plans for the delegation to inspect nuclear facilities damaged in the strikes. He said the visit will focus on procedural coordination, and any further cooperation will depend on decisions by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.

Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi had earlier confirmed that a technical IAEA delegation would travel to Tehran, reiterating that site inspections were not on the agenda. He said Iran’s engagement with the agency is being guided by legislation passed after the June attacks.

Iran launches telecoms satellite aboard Russian Soyuz rocket

Jul 25, 2025, 09:29 GMT+1

Iran’s domestically made Nahid-2 telecommunications satellite was successfully launched into orbit on Friday aboard a Russian Soyuz rocket, Iranian media reported, in what marks Tehran’s second space-related operation this week.

The launch took place from Russia’s Vostochny Cosmodrome at 9:54 a.m. Tehran time, as part of a broader mission carrying two Russian Ionosfera-M satellites and 18 smaller payloads. Russian media did not publicly name Iran but said one of the CubeSats aboard was being launched “for the benefit of a foreign customer.” Iranian outlets later confirmed it was Nahid-2.

The mission comes just four days after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) conducted a suborbital test of its Qased satellite carrier, part of what it described as an effort to enhance Iran’s space capabilities. Observers say the timing reflects Tehran’s intent to project technological resilience and strategic messaging following last month’s war with Israel.

Western officials have repeatedly voiced concern over Iran’s satellite launches due to their dual-use nature. “The same rocket that launches satellites can launch missiles; it’s the identical technology,” said Fatima Al-Asrar, a Yemeni-American policy analyst.

Tehran insists its space program is peaceful, but analysts say each launch potentially advances Iran’s ballistic missile know-how. “The timing shows Iran wants to project strength despite its recent setbacks,” said Middle East analyst Sina Azodi.

In January last year, the European Troika, Britain, France, and Germany, condemned Iran’s launch of the Soraya satellite aboard a Qaem 100 rocket, warning it "uses technology essential for the development of a long-range ballistic missile system."

Tehran says Istanbul talks offer Europe a chance to correct course

Jul 25, 2025, 09:16 GMT+1

Iran pushed back Friday on the prospect of extending a UN resolution tied to the 2015 nuclear deal, as it resumed direct talks with Britain, France and Germany for the first time since Israeli and US strikes on its territory.

Tehran rejects talk of extending UN resolution

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei described the meeting with Britain, France and Germany as a “test of realism” for the E3 powers, calling it a chance for them to correct past positions. He said Iran opposes any extension of UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which underpins the nuclear deal and expires in October, arguing that the E3 have “no legal standing” to pursue such a move.

Baghaei accused the three countries of siding with the US and Israel during last month's military strikes on Iranian soil and said they had “marginalized themselves” as negotiating partners.

E3 weighing sanctions delay

According to Western diplomats cited by the Financial Times, European powers are considering offering Iran a delay in reimposing UN sanctions, contingent upon Tehran resuming talks with Washington and restoring some cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Without such a step, the so-called snapback mechanism could be triggered as early as mid-September.

IAEA to send team, but no access to nuclear sites

Baghaei said a senior IAEA official is expected to visit Tehran in the coming weeks for talks on a new cooperation framework, but emphasized there are no plans for the delegation to inspect nuclear facilities damaged in last month’s Israeli and US strikes. The focus of the visit, he said, will be procedural coordination, and any further cooperation will depend on decisions by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.

Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi had earlier confirmed that a technical IAEA team would travel to Tehran, reiterating that site inspections were not on the agenda. He said Iran’s engagement with the agency was being guided by parliamentary legislation passed in response to the June attacks.