Iran could mount push toward nuclear weapons after attacks, Blinken says
Iran may now decide to develop nuclear weapons following the US attacks on its main nuclear sites last month, former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in an interview.
Iran may now decide to develop nuclear weapons following the US attacks on its main nuclear sites last month, former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in an interview.
“To the best of our analysis, Iran had not decided to weaponize. Now the danger is they might — burying the program deep underground and choosing to weaponize,” Blinken told Christiane Amanpour’s podcast on Tuesday.
Blinken said Iran had been rendered weaker than ever by the attacks, paving the way for a diplomatic breakthrough, but the situation could be even worse than before the conflict if Tehran decided to weaponize its nuclear activities.
“The strike that President Trump ordered clearly set back the program. But here’s the question — for how much, how long, and in what ways?” Blinken said.
The US attacked the Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow nuclear sites with long-range bombers and submarine-launched missiles on June 22, in strikes Trump said "obliterated" the program.
“Every analysis we and previous administrations conducted suggested that, if military action was taken, it might delay Iran’s nuclear program by up to two years — maybe less," Blinken said. "And during that time, Iran could decide to move the program deeper underground and make the decision they’ve so far avoided."
Blinken said that past intelligence assessments concluded Iran had not yet decided to build a nuclear weapon.
The administration under Trump's predecessor Joe Biden initially sought to bring Iran back into the nuclear deal, aiming for a longer, stronger agreement. However, nearly two years of indirect negotiations failed to yield results.
Blinken revealed that, prior to the Israeli and US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Tehran had presented a series of proposals to European officials — including reducing uranium enrichment to below one percent and opening talks on its ballistic missile program.
“They should put those offers back on the table,” Blinken said. “In fact, I think President Trump now has an opportunity to secure the better deal he wanted from the beginning.”
Negotiations under the Trump administration began with a 60-day ultimatum to Iran. On the 61st day, Israel launched a surprise military campaign.
On June 13, Israel began a series of strikes targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, killing senior commanders and hundreds of civilians. In response, Iranian missile attacks killed 27 Israeli civilians.
“There was a moment—those 12 days of Israeli and US military strikes—where the regime was on the run,” said Michael Pregent, a former US intelligence officer.
“People were watching closely. There was momentum.” But in the absence of a safe haven or real backing, Pregent said, “those who might have defected were left with nowhere to go.”
This renewed focus on potential defections comes amid a social media statement by exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi, who says that more than 20,000 members of Iran’s military have contacted his office through a digital registration platform expressing interest in defecting.
While the figure has not been independently verified, it has intensified questions about the loyalty of Iran’s security forces and the conditions under which they might break ranks.
Iran’s track record of retaliation remains one of the most significant obstacles to defection.
“The biggest problem usually” is “how are the defectors going to get their families out and their friends out?” said Patrick Clawson of the Washington Institute.
“The Islamic Republic has a long history of taking hostages who are quite unrelated to the offenses... I think we can assume that in the case of defectors, the Islamic Republic would go out to family and friends," Clawson told Iran International.
Defections are unlikely to gain momentum unless members of the security apparatus believe they have a viable future outside the regime, noted Alireza Nader, a senior Iran analyst.
'Safe zones'
What could shift that equation, according to Pregent, is the creation of safe zones—physical or operational—where defectors can seek protection and regroup.
Drawing on his experience in Iraq, where he worked with tribal leaders and defectors during the US counterinsurgency campaign, he described how trust was built by offering defectors equipment, radio support and armed backing.
That model, he argued, could be adapted to support Iranians who are ready to break with the ruling system.
Trust, he added, depends on action—not words—and on the presence of those “willing to sacrifice their own skin in the game.”
“We’ve seen that with the Israelis... the underground inside of Iran," Pregent added, referring to armed cells who have carried out assassinations and nuclear sabotage in league with Israel. "That’s where the trust is—people that were willing to fight for this, willing to put their lives on the line," Pregent told Iran International.
Insiders helping Israel
Israel’s assassinations of IRGC commander Ali Shadmani and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran make one thing clear: Iranians inside the country are cooperating with Israel. These operations would be impossible without human assets on the ground.
Haniyeh was killed on July 31, 2024, along with his bodyguard, inside a military-run guesthouse in Tehran shortly after attending the inauguration of President Masoud Pezeshkian. The strike, like others before it, demonstrated not only Israel’s superior intelligence-gathering capabilities but also the existence of local informants within sensitive Iranian security and political circles.
While Israeli officials have largely avoided direct acknowledgment of such operations, Israel's ambassador to the United States remarks at a recent Iran International town hall in Washington DC offered a rare, if careful, admission.
When asked how Israel managed to target individuals in their bedrooms in remote parts of Tehran, he replied: "I mean, what would you guess? I think the answer is in the question, and I think it goes back to the original question about how to overcome fear. There are many, many Iranians that are overcoming fear right now. They've overcome fear in the past. They've worked in, in close tandem with forces of good, and they will continue to do so," Yechiel Leiter told Iran International.
Leiter's language—deliberately indirect—nonetheless strongly implies collaboration between Israeli intelligence and Iranian dissidents or insiders.
Legal and diplomatic ambiguity is another deterrent. Potential asylum countries must make clear that not only the defectors, but also their families, would be protected and welcomed. That clarity is missing, both in law and in practice, according to Clawson.
In many cases, intelligence agencies view double agents as more practical and valuable than outright defectors. Rather than extract a source, agencies often persuade them to remain in place and feed intelligence from within, Clawson added.
Nader added that exiled political figures must be judged by action, not intention. Those hoping to gain the trust of Iranians must show they’ve delivered meaningful results—particularly during this moment of regional and domestic upheaval.
Without external support and a clear exit plan, a viable counter-insurgency from within Iran remains unlikely. The regime will continue to maintain its grip so long as those within its ranks see no path out. “That cannot happen if it doesn’t have a safe haven,” said Pregent.
Located in the Zagros Mountains, the Khorramabad Valley was inscribed as Iran’s 29th World Heritage site on July 10, during the 47th session of the UNESCO World Heritage Committee held in Paris.
Human presence in the valley dates back 63,000 years. The site is described as a key piece of the puzzle in understanding early human evolution and the migration from Africa to Eurasia.
Much of the area remains unexplored, offering potential for future archaeological excavations and discoveries.
Khorramabad Valley is located in Lorestan Province, which boasts over 5,000 historical sites—more than 2,600 of which are nationally registered in Iran.
Fereydoun Biglari, head of the Paleolithic Department at Iran’s National Museum who led excavations at one of the caves underscored the historical importance of the sights, according to remarks cited by Archaeology News magazine.
“All five sites yield strong evidence for Neanderthal occupation and offer valuable insight into their material culture, subsistence strategies, and interactions with early Homo sapiens who migrated to the Zagros around 45,000 years ago,” Biglari said.
Khorramabad was also one of the major cities in western Iran during the Sassanid era. The Falak-ol-Aflak Castle, also known as Shapurkhast Fortress, is a surviving monument from that period and serves as a symbol of the city. The city also served as a capital for the Hazaraspid and Al-e Hasanuyah dynasties.
Iranian Minister of Cultural Heritage, Tourism, and Handicrafts also provided an update on the status of Falak-ol-Aflak Castle, saying it is on track to be added to the UNESCO list.
“The UNESCO resolution also referenced the status of Falak-ol-Aflak Castle. The deficiencies previously identified by international experts are being addressed, and with the necessary requirements being met, this prominent fortress is expected to be included alongside the Khorramabad Valley and inscribed as a World Heritage site in next year’s session,” said Reza Salehi Amiri in an interview with state TV on July 10.
The last addition to Iran's World Heritage List came in 2023, when the country’s caravanserais were inscribed.
