Parliament speaker faces ultra-hardliner backlash before leadership vote

“The nurse who healed my mother’s wounds, you are a great lady,” read the caption over an image that many observers at first interpreted as a condom crinkled over a phallic shape.

Below was written: “The nurse who was never born” and “Giving an opportunity to future heroes to be born.”

Social media posts suggested the ad was understood as an anti-condom message promoted by the hardline-dominated municthey have

“Looks like they have seriously used an image of a broken condom in the metro to campaign for childbirth. Since when have they become so open-minded,” user @nah__r asked on X.

“This ad is dangerously misleading! Condom use is not just for preventing pregnancy, it plays a much more vital role in maintaining sexual health and preventing sexually transmitted diseases,” London-based Iranian hemato-oncologist Dr. Shahram Kordasti weighed in in a post on X.

“Incomplete information is harmful and a sign of the utter irresponsibility of its publishers.”

Design misfire

But the apparent message was due to a misfire in design. Some social media users later clarified that the graphic was intended to show a hospital bed with a bedsheet—not a condom.

The ad, other images bore out, was part of a broader campaign to warn about a future shortage of critical workforce—such as firefighters, emergency responders, and border guards—if Iran’s birth rate continues to fall.

Other versions showed the same shape variously pocked with bullet holes, burnt and frozen, praising the heroism of 'unborn' border patrols, firefighters and rescue workers.

“I realized that that (the opaque covering) was supposed to represent hospital sheets, not condoms after I investigated the ad,” @adameaval posted on X, blaming the campaign’s designers for the confusion.

Towards a pro-birth policy

Iran’s first condom factory was launched in 1987 by the Ministry of Health, part of a wider effort to curb explosive population growth that had exceeded five percent in the early 1980s.

In the 1990s, Iran’s family planning program was considered among the most effective globally, providing free contraceptives through public health services and promoting smaller families.

But over the past decade, authorities have reversed that approach in response to a steep drop in birth rates. According to the latest official statistics, the population growth rate is now just 0.7 percent.

In 2022, the Health Ministry banned free distribution of contraceptives and required a prescription for purchases. Yet demand continues, and illegally imported condoms and contraceptives are still available—sold discreetly through online shops and some pharmacies.

At the same time, abortion crackdowns have intensified. Abortions in Iran are only allowed during the first four months of pregnancy and only in cases of severe fetal abnormalities or when the mother’s life is at risk. Screening kits for congenital anomalies that may encourage abortions have also been banned.

Babies with benefits

The government is now offering financial and other incentives to encourage childbearing, including bonuses for childbirth, free land and extended maternity leave.

In a bid to support infertile couples, the government recently expanded insurance coverage. On April 27, Iran’s Health Insurance Organization announced it would cover 90% of costs for IVF and ICSI in public hospitals, and 70% in private ones.

Speaking at a National Population Day event on May 19, Mohammad-Jafar Ghaempanah, executive deputy to President Masoud Pezeshkian, warned that the recent 7.4 percent drop in births compared to the previous year is a “serious alarm.”

He added that reversing the trend would require “economic stability, improved livelihoods, and job security.”

However, Iran’s struggling economy complicates these ambitions. The Misery Index—defined as the combined rate of unemployment and inflation—has jumped from 19.3 percent in 2016 to 40.3 percent in 2024, with inflation hovering above 32.5 percent for years.

“A government that hasn’t been able to provide welfare or at least the minimum of it for its current population is not well-positioned ethically to tell its people to have more children,” sociologist Saeed Payvandi told Iran International TV from Paris.

Iran’s currency the rial dropped as much as 4% on Tuesday after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appeared to question the outcome of ongoing negotiations with the United States, highlighting once more the instability of an economy badly in need of reform.

And yet, the most hotly debated issue in the past few weeks has been whether to change office hours instead of simply adjusting the clocks—a standard move in many countries to maximize daylight during warmer months.

After extended back-and-forth between officials and media, government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani confirmed on May 13 that Parliament had rejected the time change proposal.

Public backlash followed swiftly. Both traditional and social media brimmed with frustration over the 6 AM workday start promulgated to avoid peak electricity consumption hours as an energy shortage and blackouts persist.

Parents, in particular, lament the impracticality of getting children ready and fed before leaving home in the early hours.

Meanwhile, the position of economy minister remains vacant two months after the previous minister was dismissed.

The government has offered no official reason for the delay, but reports suggest the shortlisted candidates are no better than the ousted Abdolnasser Hemmati—widely viewed as more experienced and competent than his potential successors.

His removal, many argue, had more to do with political wrangling than poor performance. What remains unsaid, however, is that no economy minister—or even President—can independently steer the economy while real power lies with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

In Parliament, proceedings drag on with little public interest. The row between Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and hardline MP Mostafa Mirsalim has barely registered.

Mirsalim has accused the parliamentary presidium of accepting bribes to delay impeachment motions. Ghalibaf, calling the allegations insulting, has filed a legal complaint. Meanwhile the public largely views the Parliament as irrelevant at best.

President Masoud Pezeshkian and his team are also losing the limited public support they had—best illustrated, perhaps, by rising voices of disapproval within the moderate and reformist camp.

In mid-May, Pezeshkian and Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref once again vowed to lift bans on social media, but skepticism runs deep—especially after the government’s announcement of a 75% hike in internet subscription fees.

Government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani drew fresh criticism during an official visit to the northern province of Gilan, a popular holiday destination. She was reported to have called braving the trip in hot weather “a sacrifice” she was making for the nation—an offhand comment that sparked ridicule.

On social media, satire has flourished at pace with the problems as anxiety over a potential war lingers and military leaders frequently boast of Iran's arsenal.

One user quipped that Iran doesn’t have enough electricity to light up its underground missile stockpiles.

Senior diplomats from Iran and the three European signatories to the 2015 nuclear deal met in Istanbul on Friday in what appears to be Tehran’s attempt to prevent a "snapback" of the UN sanctions that were suspended for ten years as part of that deal.

But the initiative is being questioned—somewhat surprisingly—by voices long known for advocating diplomacy, such as former lawmaker Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh.

“There is no point in holding talks with Europeans. Iran’s only solution is to continue negotiations with the United States,” he told the conservative Nameh News on Friday

“Europe’s influence will remain insignificant as long as Trump is the President of the United States.”

Missed chances

A former head of parliament’s foreign policy committee, Falahatpisheh argued that Iran’s recent diplomatic overtures to the signatories of the 2015 deal are little more than a symbolic attempt to break out of the political impasse created by Washington.

“Iran should have negotiated with (US President) Trump during his first term,” Falahatpisheh said. “Unfortunately, Iranian officials are known for their costly and untimely decisions.”

This critique of past decisions may be shared by many in Tehran’s commentariat, but the way forward is certainly not.

“Even if talks with the Americans are paused or entangled in new complexities, we should not stop our negotiations with the Europeans,” political analyst Ali Bigdeli told the moderate outlet Fararu.

“The truth is that the Europeans are holding a hostage called the ‘trigger mechanism,’ which they can use to pressure us. If they don’t agree to postpone its activation by a year, they can use it as leverage against us,” he added.

Fearing the trigger

The trigger clause in the 2015 nuclear deal allows any signatory to reimpose lifted UN sanctions on Iran. The United States effectively forfeited that prerogative when the first Trump administration withdrew from the agreement in 2018.

It remains unclear whether the so-called snapback of sanctions was discussed in the Istanbul roundtable on Friday.

European officials described the event as a broad discussion about Tehran’s relationship with the West. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi asserted that it had “nothing to do with negotiations with Washington.”

It did, as far as the media inside Iran are concerned. Whatever their view on the significance of the Istanbul meeting, most editorials linked it to the talks with the US.

“The position of the United States, which has initiated bilateral negotiations with Tehran, has somewhat sidelined Europe’s role,”Khabar Online wrote in an editorial on Friday.

“The nuclear negotiations are not merely a diplomatic engagement between Iran and Europe, but will more broadly affect the balance of power in the region,” it concluded.

On Wednesday, the Expediency Council gave final approval to the bill that enables Iran to join the Palermo Convention, formally known as the United Nations Convention against Transnational Organized Crime. However, the legislation includes several conditions that could raise concerns for the FATF.

Officials say the Expediency Council is expected to review the second remaining bill, required for joining the Combating the Financing of Terrorism (CFT) Convention, next week.

Ratifying these two conventions is considered a final and necessary step in aligning Iran with FATF standards and can facilitate its removal from the global anti-money laundering body’s black list.

The breakthrough followed a green light given in December by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei which allowed the Expediency Council to re-examine both bills after years amid political infighting.

Official and media optimism

“The conditional approval of the Palermo bill by the Expediency Council is an important step towards constructive engagement with the world,” government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani said in a post on X on Wednesday.

“The government welcomes the Assembly’s decision and hopes that national interests, economic benefits, and international considerations will guide the review of the CFT (bill) as well,” she added.

Iran's moderate and reformist media have also widely welcomed the move with optimistic headlines and commentaries.

“This can facilitate Iran’s return to the international financial system and its effective presence in global markets,” Donya-ye Eghtesad economic daily wrote.

“This important development has occurred while signs of progress in negotiations between Iran and the United States are also visible, and optimism about the future of Iran’s economy has increased."

Conditional ratification and FATF concerns

Despite the positive tone, the conditions attached to Iran’s ratification of the Palermo Convention—and the reservations included in the CFT bill—pose serious challenges to the country's full compliance with FATF standards.

The FATF has clearly said that Iran must ratify and implement the Palermo and CFT conventions “without undue reservations”, saying broad or vague reservations can undermine the conventions’ effectiveness and create loopholes for financing terrorism.

Speaking to IRNA after the Council’s decision, Deputy Economy Minister Hadi Khani downplayed the importance of the conditions.

“Many countries have set conditions for accepting these two conventions. Our country’s parliament, too, introduced conditions for certain articles of the conventions,” he said, adding that most of these were based on the principle that Iran would implement the conventions within the framework of its own Constitution.

Some FATF members including the United States, China, and India have ratified the Palermo Convention with the reservation that they do not consider themselves bound by Article 35(2), which involves mandatory dispute resolution by the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

Iran's Palermo legislation includes similar language, excluding ICJ jurisdiction while asserting that decisions on extradition and mutual legal assistance will be made on a case-by-case basis.

Iran has also declared that provisions incompatible with its national laws—many of which are rooted in Islamic Sharia—will not be binding. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have accepted the Convention with similar reservations.

Moreover, Iran’s legislation explicitly states that accession to the required conventions does not imply recognition of Israel, a FATF member.

The CTF bill also includes language affirming the “legitimate and recognized right” of peoples under occupation to resist and pursue self-determination in apparent reference to the Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories.

FATF’s concerns are particularly related to the reservations included in the CFT bill. Iran's CTF bill does not accept the definitions of terrorism provided by other countries or international bodies if they conflict with its national laws and support for groups that it views as legitimate resistance movements.

Remaining on FATF black list

Iran was on FATF black lists from 2008 to 2016. In February 2020 it was black-listed again and has remained so to date.

While approval of the Palermo Convention and the CFT Convention bills is a critical step, removal from the FATF black list depends on effective implementation, not just legal ratification, and may take several years.

All countries—including allies such as China and Russia—will be obliged to apply enhanced due diligence to financial transactions involving Iran as long as it is on the black list.

In January, former Central Bank official Asghar Fakhriyeh-Kashani revealed that some Chinese banks had closed Iranian accounts to avoid FATF penalties and geopolitical analyst Abdolreza Faraji-Rad told Ham-Mihan daily at the time that Iran’s oil trade with China had to bypass the formal banking system, avoiding cash payments and relying on alternative mechanisms for the same reason.

“It is unclear what was discussed over the past month. There is no detail on substance or format, nor any indication of whether an agreement is likely,” Vatan Emrooz wrote in its editorial following the fourth round of talks in Oman last weekend.

“The US’s repeated calls to halt enrichment cast doubt on its seriousness … Perhaps the only objective at this point is to ensure the talks do not collapse,” the editorial added.

While the ultra-conservative daily was more subdued than usual, the message was clear: the process, not the outcome, is what matters.

Kayhan, a hardline paper closely aligned with the Supreme Leader’s office, also struck a defiant tone, giving a rare front-page place to foreign minister Abbas Araghchi who said Tehran will not negotiate enrichment.

Muted optimism, missing details

Other outlets—across both reformist and conservative camps—offered a more coordinated and cautiously positive framing, though still with limited substance. Etemad and Jomhouri Eslami both described the talks as successful but provided no insight into what had actually transpired.

The only notable detail was Etemad’s assertion that the latest round of talks were both direct and indirect, clearly contradicting the official line that the negotiations had been strictly indirect.

Two prominent political commentators, Mohammad Sadeq Javadi-Hesar and Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, acknowledged the information vacuum but urged against equating public messaging with actual policy.

"The outcome of the fourth round of talks has isolated warmongers and opponents of Iran," Javadi-Hesar wrote in Etemad on Monday.

Falahtpisheh went one step further, commenting on US politics. “If both sides have decided to continue negotiations, it means that Steve Witkoff’s statement before the talks, about ending enrichment in Iran, was aimed at silencing opposition within the US.”

A Consortium on the Table?

One potentially significant development came via Khorassan, a conservative daily, which reported that Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi had proposed a regional “nuclear consortium” involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—with the United States as a symbolic shareholder.

Khorasan quoted Witkoff as describing the idea as “a surprise that can be considered.” Such an arrangement, the paper asserted, could address regional security concerns about Iran’s nuclear transparency and dilute fears of its technological monopoly.

Most upbeat was the Reform-aligned daily Sharq, which described the talks in Oman as a new life to diplomacy. And most eloquent, perhaps, was the centrist outlet Ham-Mihan, printing “back to square one” on its front page.

Iran will not accept zero enrichment or transfer of its enriched uranium abroad, the daily wrote in its editorial, unless there is a phased agreement and verifiable US sanctions relief.