Iran's financial markets react to Rome talks with cautious optimism

“The essential demand of Iran is the removal of unjust sanctions,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said on Monday during a weekly briefing. “These restrictions, imposed under the pretext of the nuclear file, have no legal foundation.”

He added that Iran remains willing to engage with concerns over its nuclear program as it has “for the past three decades.”

In November, Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said, “The official stance of Iran in rejecting weapons of mass destruction and regarding the peaceful nature of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear program is clear".

Earlier this year, the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said Iran had enriched uranium to near weapons grade. Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported major gaps in the agency's understanding of Tehran's nuclear inventory since 2023 when Tehran banned dozens of inspectors and removed cameras in key sites.

Muscat to host next round of expert talks

Baghaei confirmed that the next expert-level meeting between Iran and the United States would be held in Oman, a key mediator in the talks, along with Italy.

Tehran says the negotiations are taking place without direct contact between Iranian and American negotiators. Efforts to restore the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) have faltered since the collapse of the 2015 deal following the US withdrawal in 2018 under the first administration of President Donald Trump.

According to Baghaei, the forthcoming technical talks will focus on the details of the framework that might underpin any future agreement.

“We are serious and swift, but a deal depends on the will of the counterpart. Constant references to the snapback mechanism are not constructive,” he said, referring to threats from European states to reimpose UN sanctions under the nuclear accord’s dispute resolution clause.

Beijing and Moscow remain ‘key interlocutors’

Iran's foreign minister is set to travel to China for consultations, Baghaei said, adding that Beijing and Moscow remain crucial interlocutors due to their roles in the UN Security Council and the 2015 nuclear deal.

“We have always been in contact with the European troika as well,” he said, referring to Britain, France, and Germany. These countries, alongside Russia and China, were original signatories of the JCPOA and remain engaged in efforts to salvage the deal.

Baghaei added that all such talks remain rooted in the framework of the nuclear agreement and UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which endorsed the JCPOA in 2015.

Tehran rejects pressure, denies Rome meeting with IAEA

Baghaei also rejected the idea that Iran would yield under pressure. “We do not change our positions under threats. We respond to goodwill with goodwill and know how to counter intimidation,” he said.

Iran has repeatedly warned it will not bow to coercive diplomacy, including military threats or economic isolation, a stance hardened by years of Western sanctions and regional conflict.

US President Donald Trump has warned of bombing Iran if Tehran fails to reach a deal over its nuclear program.

"If they don't make a deal, there will be bombing — and it will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before," Trump said.

Baghaei also denied speculation about back-channel talks in Italy between Iran’s deputy foreign minister and the International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi.

“There were no meetings or discussions with Mr. Grossi in Rome,” he said. “He traveled there on his own initiative. We had already spoken with him in Tehran before the Rome talks, and saw no need for further discussions.”

While reformist outlets welcomed what they described as swift progress and a move toward technical-level discussions, conservative dailies backed the negotiation team but renewed warnings against what they called US hostility and external opposition from diaspora critics.

On Sunday, Ham-Mihan, a reformist paper aligned with technocratic factions, described the shift to expert-level talks as evidence of agreement on core principles, such as Iran’s continued uranium enrichment.

It called this “a sign of rapid progress” but warned that it did not guarantee a final deal. “The stage reached suggests a framework is in place, but final terms will be decided in detail-oriented discussions,” the editorial said.

The paper also predicted the alleged indirect format of talks may soon shift to direct engagement, arguing that detailed negotiations are impractical through intermediaries.

Shargh, another reformist paper, featured interviews with four former officials and political figures. All welcomed the apparent momentum.

“If external spoilers are kept at bay, this can lead to tangible gains for the Islamic Republic,” said reformist activist Mohammad-Sadegh Javadi-Hessar, adding that European threats to trigger the snapback mechanism appear to have receded.

In contrast, the conservative Farhikhtegan focused on perceived foreign interference. Its lead story, titled “Lobbyists of Tension,” accused a range of organizations—including American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), and the Foundation for Defense of Democracies—of undermining the talks.

It said, without evidence, that these groups, through “financial backing and intelligence ties,” aim to maintain pressure on Iran and shape US foreign policy against Tehran.

The paper also said that "Iranian dissidents abroad were spreading misleading information to derail the negotiations,” framing the process as vulnerable to outside manipulation.

The hardline Kayhan, viewed as reflecting the Supreme Leader’s position, struck a defiant tone. In a lengthy commentary, it warned that negotiations were historically a tool of colonial pressure and argued that only military and nuclear strength had forced the US to the table.

In another piece, Kayhan wrote that excluding Europe and regional states in the talks had allowed Iran to slow the pace and avoid compromise. The writer said “indirect talks humiliated the US, reinforcing Tehran’s standing.”

Saying that US enmity toward the Islamic Republic would persist regardless of the outcome, it added, “The world is watching a diplomatic clash between satanic and divine powers,” as resistance to diplomatic means continued.

Dozens of messages sent to Iran International reflect a widespread belief that any agreement would in fact bolster the Islamic Republic while offering no relief to a population struggling under economic hardship and political repression.

The talks, held Saturday in the Italian capital, mark the second phase of quiet discussions over Iran’s nuclear program. According to diplomatic sources cited by Iran International, the Iranian delegation proposed a three-stage plan aimed at reducing tensions in exchange for sanctions relief and access to frozen assets.

But reactions gathered by Iran International painted a picture of deep skepticism. “If the Islamic Republic survives through this, nothing will change for us,” one audience said. “Only if the clergy are rooted out will people’s conditions improve.”

A number of respondents expressed hope that the negotiations would fail, believing that a collapse of talks could hasten the downfall of the ruling system.

“As long as the Islamic Republic remains, nothing will happen in favor of the people. A large percentage of the population firmly wants the fate of the Islamic Republic to be decisively resolved,” said a citizen.

“Only if the clerics are uprooted from Iran will the situation for the people improve,” said another.

“The only result will be more time for them to build weapons,” one person said, calling the negotiations a “stalling tactic.”

Others echoed similar sentiments, with one recalling the 2015 nuclear deal under then-President Hassan Rouhani. “It freed up money that the regime used to empower its regional proxies,” said another comment by an audience. “It didn’t help ordinary Iranians.”

Fox News, citing analysts, reported that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s decision to reopen dialogue was influenced by military threats from former US President Donald Trump.

The same report said Tehran temporarily froze its nuclear weapons activities after the US invaded Iraq in 2003, underlining how perceived military pressure has shaped the Islamic Republic’s behavior.

Still, many Iranians remain unmoved by the prospect of another deal. “Even if sanctions are lifted, only the children of the elite will benefit,” another citizen said. “Ordinary people will just get poorer.”

Iran International has previously reported that Iran’s proposed roadmap seeks to buy time to rebuild air defenses and missile capabilities damaged by an Israeli attack last year.

One diplomatic source told the outlet the Islamic Republic “is dragging out the process to regroup militarily.”

For many Iranians, this assessment rings true. “These talks are just extending our suffering,” another one said in a voice message. “The money will go to weapons and repression, not to bread or jobs.”

“Speaking of a trillion-dollar investment from the United States is nothing but a dream and fantasy,” said Ferial Mostofi, head of the Investment Services Center at the Tehran Chamber of Commerce, in an interview with Shargh daily. “How can we expect foreign investors to come to Iran when domestic investors move their capital out of the country?”

In its article titled “Foreign Investment: Mirage or Reality?”, Shargh referred to a claim circulating in Iranian circles that Tehran is seeking an agreement with the United States to guarantee $1 trillion in US investment over twenty years. “This claim means the United States would have to invest $50 billion in Iran annually.”

Shargh also recalled past official claims that China had pledged $400 billion in investments in Iran’s oil, gas, petrochemical, and transport sectors, while Russia’s Gazprom was expected to invest $40 billion in Iran’s gas industry. The article pointed out that none of those promised investments ever materialized.

“[A trillion-dollar US investment] is exactly like the much-discussed $400 billion investment from China [over twenty-five years],” the article said, arguing that China has not—and likely will not—invest such a large sum in Iran due to several factors, including inadequate hard infrastructure in transportation and energy, lack of transparency, and political risks.

Iran is in urgent need of foreign investment to revitalize its aging oil and gas infrastructure and to support other key sectors, including its large but struggling automotive industry.

According to the 2024 report of the UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Iran attracted $1.4 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2023. The meager figures stood at $1.5 billion in 2022 and $1.4 billion in 2021. The highest recorded FDI level was over $5 billion in 2017, following the implementation of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal which lifted UN economic sanctions against Iran.

President Masoud Pezeshkian said recently that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has no objection to American investment in Iran. Foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, writing in a Washington Post op-ed, put the onus on Washington to allow American companies to access what he described as a “trillion-dollar opportunity” in Iran. Neither Pezeshkian nor Araghchi provided specific details.

The Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) linked Javan newspaper appeared to support the idea of American investment in Iran in an article it published one day before the first round of Tehran-Washington talks in Muscat on April 8. “It is possible that we accept that some American companies have the opportunity to invest or sell their products, if Iran's economic interests are met. If sanctions are lifted, these companies will be eager to invest, and Iran will be unlikely to object.”

However, any American investment in Iran would require the removal of at least some of the primary US sanctions, many of which predate the nuclear-related sanctions.

While Khamenei has not officially banned American or other foreign investment, he has consistently advocated for stronger economic ties with Eastern countries such as Russia and China, expressing deep mistrust toward the West.

Despite publicly distancing himself from economic policymaking, Khamenei is widely believed to exert substantial control over Iran’s economy through political influence, economic entities under his authority, and the IRGC’s involvement. In one notable instance, he banned imports of South Korean electronics brands LG and Samsung in August 2021 to pressure Seoul over Iran's frozen funds.

Arash Najafi, head of the energy commission at Iran’s Chamber of Commerce told local media, "In recent years, due to sanctions, we have been deprived or had limited access to many of the world’s latest technologies. At present, we need modern technology, up-to-date equipment, and serious investment to tap into the country’s underground resources, increase gas reservoir pressure, and revive oil fields."

While Iran struggles to increase oil production, its gas output is steadily declining due to loss of pressure in its main South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf. Only multinational Western energy companies have the technology to install very large gas platforms to boost production.

"We need more than $200 to $250 billion in investment to bring the country’s oil and gas sector to a stable state. Investment is essential for energy transmission to refineries and petrochemical plants, as well as for infrastructure and related facilities,” Najafi added.

Iran's oil minister Javad Owji has also said in the past that Iran needs a minimum of $200 billion investment in its energy sector.

Tehran and Washington are currently negotiating over Iran’s nuclear program and other issues with the hope of reaching an agreement that can gradually reduce or eliminate tough US sanctions. Only then Iran can freely export oil and receive the proceeds through normal banking channels. Currently 95% of shipments go to China and it is not clear how much cash Tehran receives.

Najafi expressed hope that if relations improve with the US Iran can benefit in the energy sector. "The United States is currently a leader in the oil sector, and if we engage in economic cooperation with the US and establish an economic corridor between the two countries, we could benefit not only from its technologies but also from its investment to help develop our oil and gas fields.”

He added that Iran could also attract capital from multinational companies and move toward a stable position in the oil and gas sector.