Tehran commentator warns Rome talks face ‘severe challenge’
The second round of nuclear negotiations in Rome may face a challenge, an Iranian political commentator close the Reformist camp said, adding that tensions in the talks are likely but do not signal a collapse.
“Any serious disruption will not be publicly acknowledged by the negotiating teams, but it will quickly leak and influence currency, gold prices, and Iran’s political atmosphere,” Ahmad Zeidabadi wrote in a Telegram post on Saturday.
He argued that fluctuations are part of the nature of sensitive negotiations. “Positive news does not mean final success, and negative news does not mean failure,” he said. “The alternative to continued negotiations is extremely risky, with consequences that are unimaginable.”
Iran’s negotiators are heading to Rome to meet with US envoy with full authority and a mandate rooted in nine principles, according to Ali Shamkhani, former Supreme National Security Council secretary and adviser to the Supreme Leader.
Shamkhani, in a post on X Saturday, said the delegation will approach the talks with seriousness, while expecting concrete guarantees from the US side.
He also referred to balance as one of the principles, meaning no party should walk away with all the gains. Other conditions include “sanctions relief, rejection of the Libya or UAE model, a halt to US threats, swift progress, containment of disruptive actors like Israel, and facilitation of foreign investment.”
“Iran is here for a balanced deal, not surrender,” he wrote. The comments come ahead of Saturday’s scheduled new round of negotiations with the US.
Shamkhani’s statement highlights Iran’s position of maintaining a uranium enrichment program, rejecting the Libyan example when Muammar Gadhafi surrendered his nuclear weapons program, or the UAE model, which is purely civilian.
While the Trump administration appears divided over the goals of the talks with Iran, the president and senior officials have repeatedly emphasized that Tehran must be prevented from acquiring nuclear weapons—implying that Iran’s current uranium enrichment activities should be permanently halted.
Axios website previously quoted an Israeli official as saying Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu supports a Libya-style model for Iran—complete dismantlement of its nuclear program.
US Senator Lindsey Graham has also echoed that position, but Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi dismissed it, saying, “They can only dream of that.”
Diplomatic sources told Iran International this week that President Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, “welcomed a three-stage proposal presented by the Iranian side” during the first round of negotiations in Oman on April 12.
The report published on Thursday said that Iran offered to temporarily reduce the level of its uranium enrichment in exchange for significant sanctions relief, including permission to export oil, as the first phase of an agreement with the United States. Later phases would involve Tehran making a “permanent” pledge not to enrich uranium beyond the 3.67% limit set by the Obama-era JCPOA. The arrangement would also include Iran shipping out highly enriched uranium to a third country in exchange for further sanctions relief, including the lifting of longstanding US sanctions.
The sources told Iran International that Witkoff’s positive response to the Iranian proposal surprised their delegation in Muscat.
What the diplomats did not clarify is the fate of roughly 17,000 uranium enrichment machines, known as centrifuges—arguably the most critical component of Iran’s current nuclear program. These are the machines capable of refining uranium to weapons-grade levels of 90%.
Under the JCPOA agreement, Iran was allowed to keep 5,000 machines in operation for ten years, with roughly 7,500 centrifuges kept in storage. That limitation that Tehran has already violated would end in 2025.
Since the US withdrew from the JCPOA, Iran has significantly increased its number of centrifuges in operation and deployed more advanced models with higher output. If Tehran is allowed to retain a substantial portion of this infrastructure, it could resume higher-level enrichment at any time.
The Arms Control Association said in 2022 that, “Several of Iran’s escalatory breaches have resulted in its acquisition of new knowledge and expertise that cannot be reversed.”
The Islamic Republic urgently needs sanctions relief, as its economy is in deep crisis and the national currency has lost nearly half its value since September. If the United States lifts some sanctions and unfreezes assets in exchange for only a temporary reduction in enrichment, Tehran will feel less pressure to move quickly toward further phases of the proposed agreement.
This could allow Iran to stall for time—as it did during the Biden administration—until President Trump nears the end of his term and the 2028 election campaign begins. This may explain why Tehran, according to the report, has prioritized the lifting of oil export sanctions in the first phase.
Iran has consistently insisted that the US must “show good faith” in any negotiation. This has typically meant lifting at least some of the sanctions reimposed by President Trump in 2018. Tehran has also called for an end to US “pressure,” a demand that could reduce Washington’s leverage in protracted talks if sanctions are eased too early.
Iran began enriching uranium to 60 percent in 2021 following a December 2020 parliament decision to retaliate against the US. Interestingly, for more than two years Iran waited during the first Trump term before taking any drastic retaliatory step and only upped the ante after President Joe Biden’s election. Until then, enrichment levels had remained below 5 percent.
If Iran retains its centrifuge infrastructure, it remains capable of resuming high-level enrichment—as it has done since 2021. One of the core criticisms of the JCPOA is that it never fully banned enrichment, and many of its key restrictions are now approaching expiration.
On the diplomatic and economic fronts, a partial or phased agreement would allow Iran to build closer ties with countries such as India, and trade more freely with China and Europe. That would reduce the urgency currently driving Iran’s negotiations—and could complicate US efforts to pursue a phased deal in a meaningful way.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani on Saturday, shortly before heading to the venue of indirect talks with the United States in Rome. The two officials discussed bilateral ties and international developments, Iranian media reported.
“The only obstacle to achieving a Middle East free of nuclear weapons is Israel,” Araghchi was quoted as saying during the meeting, according to state media.
Iran’s Guardian Council spokesman Hadi Tahan Nazif declined to say how the oversight body would assess any potential agreement with the United States, as indirect nuclear talks resume in Rome on Saturday.
“Let’s first see where the negotiations lead. They’ve only just begun,” he told reporters in Tehran when asked whether the Council would review a future deal.
The Guardian Council, which is tasked with vetting legislation passed by parliament, previously approved the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers.
