A report by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies has questioned the true scale of the threat posed by Iran’s ballistic missiles to Israel and potentially other regional countries.
Based on the April assault on Israel in which around 350 missiles, rockets and drones were fired towards the Jewish state, the fact most were intercepted by Israel and a US-coalition, shows only “some ability to strike Israel”, said Sam Lair, from the center.
Speaking to the Associated Press, he said: “If I were supreme leader, I would probably be a little disappointed.”
Lair said that if Iranian missiles are not able to hit targets precisely “that recasts their role”. He added: “They’re no longer as valuable for conducting conventional military operations. They may be more valuable simply as terror weapons.”
The report comes as Iran’s shadow war with Israel has once again peaked in the wake of the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July.
Though Israel has not claimed responsibility, it is believed to have been an Israeli missile strike from inside Iran’s borders.
Since the assassination, Iran has threatened to retaliate, but has waited several weeks in a bid to heighten the psychological war against its arch-enemy who is currently in the midst of a multi-front war with Iran’s proxies.
April’s assault was triggered by an alleged Israeli airstrike at the Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing a senior Quds Force commander and several other senior military personnel.
But its retaliation fell short of expectations, with claims from Iran of hitting the Nevatim Air Base falling flat. Instead of hitting the valuable fighter jets and military assets, the attack merely dented some holes in the runway, as seen by footage released by the Israeli military, showing that at least four missiles hit the base.
A team of experts from the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies examined the alleged strike on the base, 65 kilometers south of Jerusalem in the Negev Desert, and said the only debris found in the area, collected from the Dead Sea, suggests Iran used Emad missiles to target Nevatim, the analysts told AP.
The liquid-fueled Emad, or “pillar” in Farsi, is a variant of Iran’s Shahab-3 missile built from a North Korean design with a reported range of 2,000 kilometers. That indicates the Emads were likely fired from the Shiraz area, which is within the estimated limits of the missile’s likely capabilities, the report said.
Based on Iran’s focus on the F-35I, the James Martin analysts assumed the likely target point for the Iranian fire would be a cluster of aircraft hangars. That offers “a much more valuable target” than just “poking holes in the runway,” Lair said. But none of the Iranian missiles directly hit those hangars.
Assuming Iran targeted the hangars, the James Martin analysts measured the distance between the hangars and the impact zones of the missiles. It gave an average of about 1.2 kilometers for the “circular error probable”, a measurement used by experts to determine a weapon’s accuracy based on the radius of a circle that encompasses 50 percent of where the missiles landed.
“This means the Emad is much less accurate than previous estimates indicated,” Lair said. “This indicates the Iranians are a generation behind where previous assessments thought they were in accuracy.”
Former British paratrooper and former Sandhurst senior lecturer, Andrew Fox, said Iran’s capability “is a paper tiger”.
“This is why they created their network of proxies and why the regime so desperately want nuclear weapons,” he said, speaking from Israel. “We know their capabilities from the Iraq-Iran war. They are no match for Israel’s military firepower and defensive strength.”
While Iran’s leaders continue to threaten a follow-up to April’s attack, he said it would be nothing more than “embarrassing”, and risk drawing the US into the battle.
“A far more likely method of revenge against Israel for the Haniyeh assassination is for Iran to use their proxies to stoke tensions in the West Bank and try to create a third intifada,” he said.
US intelligence agencies said in a report in July that Iran has “the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the region and continues to emphasize improving the accuracy, lethality and reliability of these systems”.
The report from the director of national intelligence also said “Iran probably is incorporating lessons learned” from the April attack.
However, Behnam Ben Taleblu, an American Iranian and a senior fellow at the NGO, the Foundation of Defense of Democracies (FDD), told Iran International that while Iran's progress in its missile program should be looked at in the context of the maturity of the program, it cannot be downplayed.
“In the past few years people have been talking about Iran’s advances, in range and precision, but it has to be seen as relative in terms of the program and capabilities.
“Over the last decade, the missile attacks had not faced defended targets like the April attack against Israel. Never had Iran launched ballistic missiles from its own territory against Israel or against a defended target, and at that long range."
During the Iran-Iraq War, following the West's refusal to help build Iran's capabilities, Tehran significantly ramped up its missile program.
Many strikes have been launched by Iran but the targeted nations have often remained silent either due to a lack of military capability or an unwillingness to respond, as seen in Iraq and Syria. Notably, Pakistan stood out for its swift and decisive response to an Iranian missile attack.
He said the latest report, while important, reads like "more of the same" to those following Iran's progress closely. "It’s an indictment of the medium range systems that employ liquid propellant rather than the short range ones employing solid propellant," he said.
Iran’s medium range, nuclear capability missiles, remain weapons of terror, but with the capability to improve over time, he said, "though that hasn’t been brought to bear yet".
“If we see it as a nuclear delivery vehicle, we must still mention that four to seven missiles still reached Israel. Even if one of those had a nuclear warhead, it could be a game changer. So all of this has to be taken into account."
The US Central Command said in a statement that the Saudi-owned Amjad vessel and the Panama-flagged and Greek-operated Blue Lagoon I were hit in an attack but Saudi Arabia later denied the assessment.
However, Saudi’s national shipping company, Bahri, announced on Tuesday that "Amjad was not targeted and sustained no injuries or damage."
The vessel, which was carrying approximately two million barrels of crude oil, remains seemingly fully operational and is continuing its voyage to its planned destination without interruption.
Bahri emphasized that all relevant authorities were promptly informed, and that the company remains in continuous communication with its crew, closely monitoring the evolving situation.
Iran has vocally supported and praised the Houthis, but rejected claims that it has provided them with arms. The Houthis are a designated terror group by countries including the US and UK.
The US Central Command earlier revealed that the Houthis launched the assault using two ballistic missiles and an unmanned aerial vehicle, striking both vessels, calling the move "reckless acts of terrorism by the Houthis."
Although the Houthis claimed responsibility for targeting the Blue Lagoon with missiles and drones, they made no mention of the Amjad.
The Joint Maritime Information Center, responsible for tracking such incidents, reported that three ballistic missiles hit the Blue Lagoon I tanker 70 nautical miles northwest of the Yemeni port of Saleef.
The center "assesses that Blue Lagoon I was targeted due to other vessels within its company structure making recent port calls in Israel," it said in a report.
"All crew on board are safe. The vessel sustained minimal damage but does not require assistance."
Saudi Arabia, the world’s leading oil exporter, has expressed growing concern over the increased frequency of Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea, a maritime corridor for global energy supplies.
The attacks are part of a broader campaign by the Houthis, who have been emboldened by Iran’s support, and have dragged Yemen to become the region's poorest nation after a decade-long war civil war against a Saudi-led coalition.
The recent escalation follows a series of aerial drone and missile strikes by the Houthis, which they claim are in solidarity with Palestinians amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza, in a bid to force Israel into a ceasefire.
The Houthis began targeting maritime commercial traffic in mid-November, following a directive from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who urged Muslim nations to impose a blockade on Israel.
Initially concentrated in the Red Sea, these attacks have since spread to other vital waterways, including the Indian Ocean, disrupting international shipping and resulting in the capture of dozens of seafarers.
In response to this growing threat to global trade and freedom of navigation, a US-led coalition of over 20 nations has been formed to counter the blockade. It has seen joint attacks by the UK and US on Houthi infrastructure in Yemen.
Earlier, in response to growing criticism over these loans, the Central Bank released a report on August 30, stating that the total loans provided by banks and credit institutions to their employees, managers, and board members in 2023 amounted to more than 9,100 trillion rials (over $1.5 billion).
Despite this amount of bank loans to their employees and subsidiaries, the Central Bank said that "reviews indicate that, given the issuance of the Central Bank's directives and regulations in this regard, these loans are under controlled management."
Two of the country's most influential banks, Mellat and Sepah Bank, issued the highest volume of loans, providing 190 trillion rials (over $315 million) and 145 trillion rials (over $240 million), respectively, to their subsidiaries last year.
Both banks are notorious for their controversial roles in Tehran’s political and financial arenas, having been accused of supporting military and nuclear programs—activities that have resulted in severe international sanctions. In the face of these sanctions and economic hardships, they have been propped up and kept afloat by Iran's Central Bank.
In reaction to news of the large loans to bank employees and subsidiaries, domestic media have highlighted the significant challenges ordinary citizens face securing loans for housing, marriage, entrepreneurship, and private sector ventures.
State media Khabar Online reported that the loans granted by banks to their employees and subsidiaries are nearly equivalent to the total amount needed for marriage loans for 300,000 people who have been waiting for months with no response from the Central Bank.
On Sunday, semi-official ILNA news agency reported that Jafar Ghaderi, a member of the parliament, mentioned the "distribution of astronomical loans" among bank employees and the "unequal access to loans among the public." He stated that the Governor of the Central Bank and several bank CEOs would be summoned to parliament to provide explanations on this matter.
The report highlights a stark disparity in loan ceilings between different groups. For some bank employees, the loan limit exceeds 10 billion rials (over $16,000), while retirees have a maximum loan limit of only 300 million rials ($500), which is less than what a bank teller earns in a month.
In contrast, tenants seeking rental deposit loans and couples looking for marriage loans face long waiting lists, with the banking system attributing these delays to a lack of financial resources.
Meanwhile, the latest July report from the Codal system indicates that the accumulated losses of Iran's banking system amount to 3,700 trillion rials (over $6 billion).
According to a report by Eco Iran on July 10, "the accumulated losses of the country's banking system have exceeded $6 billion, which is more than half of the projected oil revenues for this fiscal year (starting March 21). In other words, addressing the banks' accumulated losses would require at least 50 percent of this year's oil revenues."
The highest recorded accumulated loss belongs to Ayandeh Bank, which has exceeded 1,140 trillion rials nearly ($2 billion).
The latest figures from the Codal system suggest that Melli Bank had an accumulated loss of more than 760 trillion rials (over $1.2 billion) by the end of September last year, ranking second.
Other banks with significant accumulated losses include Sarmayeh, Sepah, Iran Zamin, Shahr, Dey, Keshavarzi, Maskan, Melal Credit Institution, Parsian, Tosee Taavon Bank, and Taavon.
The move was reportedly part of a strategy to present Afghan refugees as Iranian citizens who would vote in the 2024 parliamentary elections and support the anticipated re-election bid of former President Ebrahim Raisi in 2025. Since 2020, Iranians have increasingly resisted participating in elections, which are widely perceived as biased and unfair, favoring hardline factions, including the ultraconservative Paydari Party.
During the past weeks, numerous reports in the Iranian press and social media posts have accused Afghan immigrants of being unwelcome elements exacerbating the country's already strained employment, health, and education sectors.
Iran has been grappling with a severe economic crisis since 2018, following the United States' withdrawal from the JCPOA nuclear deal and the subsequent imposition of sanctions. The inefficient, government-controlled economy has struggled to manage the fallout, with inflation soaring above 40 percent.
Public infrastructure, already weakened by years of inadequate investment, is buckling under the pressure. School buildings are crumbling, and teachers earn as little as $250 per month. This summer, a severe power shortage gripped the country, leaving industries idle and homes enduring prolonged blackouts.
Amid these dire conditions, many Iranians argue that the country is simply not in a position to accommodate additional migrants. They accuse the government of negligence in failing to stem the influx of Afghan refugees, which, according to some estimates, has added 8 million people to the population—roughly 10 percent of Iran's total.
However, following the election of President Massoud Pezeshkian, some recent reports have sought to ease societal tensions in Iran. One of the latest reports argued that hostility towards Afghan immigrants is, in fact, an anti-Iranian stance. The report contended that the campaign against the presence of Afghans in Iran represents a form of hostile nationalism that fosters irrational xenophobia.
Meanwhile, other reports have revealed that contractors associated with the Tehran Municipality have been exploiting young Afghan children, employing them as trash collectors and recycling workers for wages that are up to five times lower than the minimum wage.
A Tehran City Councilor told Khabar Online that these children do not have identification documents and bank cards so if they do not receive their pay for any reason, they cannot file a complaint against the contractors in Iranian courts. They have no insurance or job security and contractors often impose difficult working conditions on them.
Meanwhile, an official acknowledged that the Municipality is aware that some Afghan children employed in its operations are becoming involved in social issues, including juvenile delinquency. He admitted that these children have entered Iran illegally and warned that without decisive action from the authorities, this delinquency could escalate into a significant and unresolvable social crisis.
Meanwhile, due to the extremely high fertility rate among Afghan women living in Iran, as much as 50 percent of all births in Alborz Province are attributed to Afghan refugees. An official from an insurance company reported that up to 73 percent of these births have been performed via C-section, which is more expensive than natural childbirth. He also noted that, in line with an agreement with the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, up to 6,000 of the poorest refugees are provided with free health insurance.
As in other countries experiencing high rates of immigration, there are conflicting accounts of how Iran treats its Afghan refugee population. Some reports suggest that Afghan refugees are being recruited to fight in the war in Syria, while others claim they are being used to compensate for the lack of Iranian participation in elections.