Iran International
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian has appointed Mohammad-Reza Aref, a ‘reformist’ known for his aloof conduct as a lawmaker, as his first vice president, contrary to earlier reports suggesting a top economist would get the post.
The announcement came immediately after Pezeshkian received his seal of approval from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during an inauguration ceremony on Sunday morning, officially assuming the position of President.
Aref, who was the leader of the Reformists in parliament between 2016-2020, became known as the “Sultan of silence” after remaining indifferent to major upheavals in the country. Not only he was less than visible in legislative affairs, he failed to rally his faction when government forces quashed anti-regime protests in 2017-2918 and 2019 killing more than 1,500 civilians.
Aref’s inaction as Reform Front’s Chairman was a major reason why ‘reformists’ lost political credibility with the electorate and received only three percent of the vote in the 2021 presidential election. Hardliners who had already purged others in the 2020 parliamentary elections, were able to put Ebrahim Raisi in the presidential office in August 2021. One result of this major takeover of power was the failure of nuclear talks with the West in 2021-2022.
On Saturday, Nameh News, a major new website had reported that Pezeshkian’s choice for vice-president was Ali Tayyebnia, a respected economic official, who was minister during President Hassan Rouhani’s administration. This scenario would mean that Tayyebnia would coordinate all economy-related agencies at a time when to most pressing problem is to partially improve the ailing economy.
Tayyebnia can still be appointed in the cabinet, but the likelihood that he would expect to return to the same position as he held earlier seems less likely. He could also be appointed as vice-president for economic affairs, since president in Iran have several deputies.
By appointing Aref, Pezeshkian has chosen the least problematic ‘reformist’ from his perspective, as well as that of Khamenei. The new president has repeatedly vowed full allegiance to the Supreme Leader’s agenda, despite attempts by many regime insiders to portray him as a reformist himself.
Pezeshkain reiterated his allegiance to Khamenei once again during his inauguration on Sunday, and his religious devotion by lengthy recitations of Quranic verses in Arabic. An Iranian on social media commented that the ceremony sounded more like an inauguration taking place in Saudi Arabia.
The 73-year-old Aref was a revolutionary university student in the 1970s and was arrested by the secret police for his anti-Shah activities. He studied electronics in Tehran University and then continued his studies at Stanford University, where he received a master’s degree and a PhD in electrical and communication engineering in 1980. He represents the generation that many Iranians now derisively call the "79-ers", referring to those who overthrew the monarchy in 1979.
Several cabinet ministers of the outgoing Raisi administration and some of the aides of Parliament (Majles) Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf fiercely clashed throughout the week over the top position at the Iranian Parliament's Audit Office. This body plays a crucial role in distributing funds to well-connected individuals and organizations.
Among the candidates for the post were the Audit Office's current chairman Ahmad Reza Dastgheib, Raisi's Road Minister Mehrdad Bazrpash, his Minister of Economy Ehsan Khandouzi and his Planning and Budget Chief Davoud Manzour.
At the Majles session on July 24, the incumbent chairman, Dastgheib, was re-elected. Despite his close ties to the Raisi administration, he is considered a moderate politician compared to the other contestants.
From Ghalibaf's camp, Mohsen Pirhadi and two others had declared their candidacy for the post. Other conservative groups also put forward their own candidates. However, President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian did not name any candidates, as his key officials, who will likely be announced next week, still need to be vetted by the Majles.
The Audit Office is tasked with making sure that the country's annual budget is being spent in the right way and is distributed fairly among all the government bodies and tens of religious and state ideological organizations whose functions are not clearly defined. Meanwhile, it can conduct investigations on the spendings of al those organizations. This makes it a good leverage to distribute government funds and control rival organizations through its checks and balances.
Furthermore, the post has proven to be a good launching pad for higher state positions. Its former top officials have invariably risen to higher ministerial or vice president levels.
On the other hand, at least two top ultraconservative politicians—presidential candidate Saeed Jalili and fundamentalist commentator and vigilante leader Ali Akbar Raefipour—appear to be in significant trouble. They are under pressure to disclose the funding sources for Jalili's "shadow government" and Raefipour's "Masaf" organization. The former is a self-declared parallel cabinet, while the latter aims to send as many hardliners as possible to the Iranian parliament in March.
The Iranian Judiciary has indicted Masaf and Raefipour for tarnishing the image of Ghalibaf during the March 2024 parliamentary election when Masaf was not able to send more than a handful of new lawmakers to the Majles. Rumors on social media and reports in newspapers point fingers at Ghalibaf as the man behind the indictments for Raefipour, two journalists and a whistleblower who made disclosures about mishandling of funds by Ghalibaf and other cases involving his family members.
In a detailed report on Tuesday, the Khabar Online website questioned the non-transparent funding and expenditures of Jalili's shadow government. The report quoted over two dozen politicians who criticized Jalili and his so-called "rival government." They argued that, despite the unclear objectives of this "government," its existence violates political norms, as shadow governments are typically formed by political parties with well-defined platforms.
Khabar Online further charged that Jalili's shadow government has no charter or articles of association, and its members are not known. Others have called on Jalili to clarify his source of funding, and the names of those who control the shadow government's bank accounts out of which hefty sums have been paid for his unsuccessful election campaign. They further charged that Jalili's shadow government is an illegal entity.
Jalili has remained silent, offering no explanation to clarify the opaque situation of his "government."
Hezbollah quickly denied any involvement in the attack. Mohammed Afif, Hezbollah's chief spokesman, told The Associated Press that the group "categorically denies carrying out an attack on Majdal Shams", a Druze village in Israeli-controlled Golan Heights.
However, the Israeli military says the rocket used in the attack was “a Falaq-1 rocket, an Iranian rocket, manufactured in Iran, a rocket with a warhead of over 50 kilograms of explosives."
Speaking in a press conference, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, the Israeli military's chief spokesman called it a "very serious" incident and promised to act accordingly.
"Hezbollah fired a rocket at children playing soccer in northern Israel. It then lied and claimed they did not carry out the attack," said Hagari. He noted it was the deadliest assault on Israeli civilians since the October 7 Hamas attack that ignited the war in Gaza.
Middle East affairs expert Menashe Amir told Iran International, "It was tolerable over the past 10 months as long as Hezbollah only sent a single rocket, missile, mortar, or drone, even in cases where minor damage was caused, and even when one person, whether military or civilian, was killed. But today, two horrific incidents have occurred that have put Israel at a crossroads."
"One was an attack on a gas field in the Mediterranean Sea, and much worse, was an attack on a soccer field that led to the deaths of 10 Druze children. They were Arab Druze to whom Israel had granted citizenship. This is what has put Israel at a crossroads, compelling it to respond," Amir said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was visiting the United States, announced he would cut his trip short in response to the attack. He said he was “shocked” to see the attack, pledging that Israel will “not let this pass in silence.”
“Among the murdered were small children who were playing soccer,” Netanyahu said in a video statement, “and others were also other murdered. Our hearts are all broken by these sights.”
Iran’s reaction
Mojtaba Amani, Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, referred to the deadly attack on Majdal Shams and said, "We do not expect Israel to start a war against Lebanon and the region; considering the balance of power, we believe the likelihood of such an event is very low."
Mohsen Rezaei, a former chief-commander of the Revolutionary Guard, also wrote on X that “Netanyahu, out of desperation or madness, believes that by starting an adventure in Lebanon, he can escape the quagmire of Gaza; however, he is stepping towards a deeper and more formidable quagmire.”
Since its establishment in 1979, Iran's Islamic government has been a staunch adversary of Israel and the United States. In the early 1980s, it established Hezbollah in Lebanon as a proxy force to confront Israel. Over the past two decades, Iran has created additional proxy forces in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and the Palestinian territories. Furthermore, it has developed networks across other Middle Eastern, African, and Western countries.
International reactions
Lebanon's government, while not specifically mentioning Majdal Shams, called for an "immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts" and condemned all attacks on civilians.
The attack also sparked shock and fear among American politicians, with several House Representatives blaming Iran for the bloodshed. Maryland Congressman Steny Hoyer stated that the attack on Majdal Shams "is further evidence that Israelis are under siege by Iran and its proxies including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
He also called it "another example of the Iran-sponsored reign of terror in the north of Israel where tens of thousands have been displaced since 10/7."
House Representative Lois Frankel condemned the attack on X, saying, "Israel remains under constant threat from Iran and its proxies. We must continue to stand by our ally as she defends herself from terror."
New York Representative Anthony D’Esposito also blamed Iran, stating, "The USA must stand resolutely behind Israel and reject the aggression of Iran and their terror proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas."
In 2018, the US government reported that Iran provides Hezbollah with an estimated $700 million annually. Earlier, in 2016, Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, publicly stated in a speech that his organization’s funding comes directly from Iran.
This funding supports Hezbollah’s extensive military capabilities, which include an arsenal of approximately 150,000 missiles and rockets aimed at Israel. The financial support from Iran allows Hezbollah to maintain its militant activities and exert considerable influence in Lebanon and beyond.
The bigger picture
Saturday's attack coincides with negotiations between Israel and Hamas regarding a potential cease-fire to end the nearly 10-month conflict and secure the release of approximately 110 hostages held in Gaza. The war began with a surprise Hamas attack on October 7, which killed around 1,200 people and led to Israel's retaliatory offensive, resulting in over 39,000 deaths, according to Hamas health authorities.
The Saturday rocket strike follows earlier cross-border violence between Israel and the Lebanon-based Shia militia on Saturday, where Hezbollah reported the deaths of three fighters. Israel’s military confirmed an airstrike on a Hezbollah arms depot in the border village of Kfar Kila, indicating militants were present at the time.
Israel and Hezbollah have also been exchanging fire since October 8. Recent months have seen increased cross-border violence, with Israeli airstrikes and Hezbollah's rocket and drone attacks reaching deeper into each other's territories.
Since October, Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon have killed more than 450 people, primarily Hezbollah members, along with about 90 civilians and non-combatants. On the Israeli side, 44 people have been killed, including at least 21 soldiers.
Looking forward
As the situation escalates, Israel faces critical decisions on how to respond to the latest attack. Menashe Amir believes the potential for a severe military reaction against Hezbollah or even broader targets in Lebanon is high. However, such actions carry the risk of sparking an all-out war, with devastating consequences for the entire region.
“If Israel now enters an all-out war with Hezbollah, the militant group has long-range precision missiles capable of launching severe, deadly, and destructive attacks on numerous locations within Israel. Israel has no choice but to respond with a crushing reaction, which could, however, escalate into a full-scale war," Amir said.
Another critical question is the potential response from Hezbollah's main sponsor, Iran. If Tehran gets engaged in the war, "the consequences of such a conflict for the Middle East would be extremely destructive. Hezbollah's precision missiles can target many areas within Israel, while Israel's powerful air force can devastate numerous areas inside Lebanon,” Amir told Iran International.
On Wednesday, Germany’s Interior Ministry announced the ban on the Islamic Center Hamburg (IZH) and its subsidiary organizations, citing their radical Islamist goals and direct control by Tehran. Authorities searched 53 premises across eight German states under a court order.
In a phone call with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, Iran's top diplomat expressed Tehran's protest at the closure of the Islamic centers, calling it a "politicized, Islamophobic move".
"The German government must accept the consequences," Bagheri warned, according to Iran's readout of the call.
Iran's Foreign Ministry earlier summoned German Ambassador to Tehran Hans-Udo Muzel, expressing Tehran's "strongest protests" over what it termed a "hostile act." The ministry’s official website described the closure as an "obvious case of Islamophobia" and accused Germany of promoting "an intentional spread of violence and dictatorship."
The German Interior Ministry argued that the Islamic Center, despite claiming to be a purely religious foundation, operated as an "Islamist extremist" entity directly representing Iran's supreme leader to advance an "authoritarian and theocratic rule."
Germany's federal police had previously raided the Islamic Center in November 2023 on suspicions of supporting the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which is accused of engagement in terrorism. Germany banned Hezbollah's activities in 2020, asserting that the IZH's actions aimed to spread the revolutionary concept of Iran’s Supreme Leader and undermine Germany’s "constitutional order."
The ban impacts the Hamburg-based IZH, known for its turquoise mosque, and its subgroups in Frankfurt, Munich, and Berlin. Consequently, four Shiite mosques will be closed, according to the ministry.
"The Islamic Republic uses these centers when they face diplomatic restrictions at embassies," Munich-based journalist Masoud Kazemi told Iran International. "For instance, in the case of Iranian diplomat convicted of terrorism (Asadollah Assadi), there were reports that he, under the cover of a diplomat, who planned to bomb an MEK gathering with the help of some other individuals, had met with those people at the Islamic Centre Hamburg and exchanged money with them."
Kazemi said another responsibility of these centers is to attract Shiites who have immigrated, been expelled, or sought asylum in Europe. "Shiites from Lebanon, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. They hire them culturally and structurally and use them on different occasions. It is also said that the large number of worshippers and mourners attending ceremonies in Europe are organized by these centers, serving as a show of power by the Islamic Republic in the heart of Europe."
The IZH has been a hub of pro-Hezbollah activism and support for Qasem Soleimani, the former commander of IRGC's Quds Force. In early 2023, the German Federal Administrative Court ruled that the IZH and its affiliated Blue Mosque are "extremist Islamic organizations."
