Regime Prepares Ahead Of Tehran Protest Anniversary
Maryam Sinaiee
Iran International
Ekbatan, in western Tehran, known for its resilience during last year's protests, is facing increased security measures to prevent fresh unrest on the anniversary.
Iran International
Ekbatan, in western Tehran, known for its resilience during last year's protests, is facing increased security measures to prevent fresh unrest on the anniversary.
Security forces and their plainclothes agents made their initial appearance in Ekbatan last week. They have already established checkpoints within the extensive middle-class apartment complex and have stationed special forces on motorcycles at various locations in and around the compound, including outside a mega mall and a hospital.
In preparation for the upcoming anniversary of Mahsa (Jina) Amini's death in custody of the morality police on September 16, 2022, residents have already begun nighttime chants from their windows. Slogans such as "Down with Khamenei," "Down with the child-killing regime," and "We will persist until the regime collapses, despite poverty, corruption, and high living costs," have echoed through the neighborhood in recent days.
“The sound of many people chanting echoed in the space between the apartment blocks and really scared the security forces. On several occasions they shot pellets and even live bullets indiscriminately at windows to stop people chanting,” Tara, a twenty-five-year-old resident told Iran International in an online chat. “It didn’t work. We returned and gave them more nightmares every night.”
“Ekbatan was more active than other neighborhoods in Tehran because its structure and architecture made it difficult for security forces to control. Additionally, the residents’ community was and is much more tightly knit than in other neighborhoods,” Ashkan, a young man who manages Ekbatan protesters very popular Twitter, Telegram, and Instagram accounts told Iran International. “However, they have been familiarizing themselves with the terrain and become more dangerous,” he added.
Eight young men from Ekbatan who were accused of killing a member of the Basij militia during last year’s protests are still in prison and under great psychological and physical pressure to confess to the allegations that they all deny. “Just recently, they were moved from Rajai-Shahr prison to Ghezel Hesar,” Ashkan said. “They are still awaiting trial and are in very bad shape psychologically.”
Protesters in Ekbatan often marched under the blocks at night and escaped into the vast green spaces when security forces raided them. They took refuge in one of the many entrances of the blocks, or hid in the apartments of the sympathetic residents who often left their doors open for them.
The five square-kilometer complex, with a population of 45,000 has over 15,500 apartments in 33 blocks built on wide columns. The columns under the blocks are a blank canvas for protesters to spray paint anti-regime graffiti. Ordered by security forces, the management of the blocks ensures that they quickly cover the graffiti with paint, but before long, more graffiti appears on the columns.
Complaining about the many disputes among expatriate groups over the leadership of the movement, Ashkan said protesters could have achieved much more if these disputes had not slowed down the movement. “This is a lengthy process, but anything can suddenly trigger massive protests again like Mahsa’s killing did last year,” he said but declined to comment on his own leadership preferences.
“I was personally very moved last year and became more determined when I saw the video showing Majidreza Rahnavard fighting so bravely for his rights in Mashhad, which is dominated by Basijis and corrupt hardliners. He was really fearless and fought like a hero," Ashkan said.
Rahnavard, 23, was the first of the seven young men executed in public for his involvement in the protests and the alleged stabbing of two Basijis in November 2022. He was hanged in public on December 12.
Israel’s Alma, an institute focused on threats to Israel, released a report Wednesday elaborating on how Armenia functions as a transit point in the Islamic Republic’s air corridor route to Syria and Lebanon.
The report said Iran exploits Armenia not only to subvert Azerbaijan – an ally of Israel – but also to facilitate the Islamic Republic’s delivery of military equipment to Syria and then to Lebanon, underlining that “the Iranian effort in both arenas works against Israel.”
The Israeli institute pointed out that Iran supports Armenia in the conflict with Azerbaijan over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, and that Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) operate in the area while tensions are high and may flare up again in the near future. “Iran is acting against Azerbaijan on multiple fronts, with the IRGC’s Quds Force conducting operations in asymmetric warfare, information warfare, and transferring weapons and military equipment to Armenia.”
Referring to the late-August Israeli air attack on Aleppo International Airport – the third one this year, Alma said that Aleppo area, home to about 60,000 Armenians, is “a geographical anchor within the Iranian corridor to Syria, and the Aleppo airport serves as one of the entry gates of the aerial route as part of the weapons corridor from Iran to Syria and Lebanon.”
However, the report failed to note that after more than a decade of civil war, most Armenians who are Christians have fled from the city the city.
The report also mentioned Mehdi Sobhani, Iran’s former envoy to Syria who left his position in March to become the regime’s ambassador to Armenia. “The Iranian ambassador to Syria and Lebanon is normally a senior IRGC officer in charge of coordinating Iranian activity with Hezbollah and the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad, rather than a diplomat appointed by the Iranian Foreign Ministry,” Alma said, claiming that the selection of Sobhani as the Iranian envoy to Yerevan reflects “the Revolutionary Guards’ high regard for Armenia.”
Alma referred to an earlier report released in December 2022 about the role of Iranian airline Mahan Air -- including its passenger aircraft -- in arms transfers from Iran to Syria and Lebanon on behalf of the IRGC’s Quds Force. It explained that after Iranians airlines were exposed as carriers of arms and forces for the IRGC, Armenian airline Flight Travel LLC was created in 2018 “as a front for Mahan Air’s Armenian headquarters.”
The US Treasury Department sanctioned Flight Travel LLC for aiding Mahan Air in transporting Shiite militia operatives from Pakistan and Afghanistan to Syria, the report underlined, claiming that “These aircraft most certainly carried not only militia operatives but also military equipment and weapons.”
“Ma’raj (Meraj), Qeshm Fares, Pouya Air, and Iran Air are all Iranian airlines that operate within the Iranian corridor and are linked to the IRGC’s activities using cargo and passenger planes," the report said, adding that they are all sanctioned by the US.
According to Alma’s investigation, three Armenian airlines and one Iranian are still operating between Iran and Armenia. “The deployment of Armenian planes could thwart intelligence surveillance of Iranian activity by making it more difficult to cover their tracks,” it said. Iran Air Tour – a subsidiary of Iran Air -- and Syrian airline Cham Wings play an important role in supporting the Iranian effort for the transfer of materiel and militias to Syria.
Iran is known to have expanded its program significantly since 2018, when the United States unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal –or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
On Wednesday, three signatories of the deal, UK, France, Germany (E3) delivered a joint statement at the IAEA Board of Governors meeting, in which they condemned Iran’s lack of transparency with regards to its nuclear program.
The E3 noted that “Iran has not allowed effective verification and monitoring activities in relation to the production and inventory of centrifuges and key components, heavy water and uranium ore concentrate for more than two and a half years.”
Despite their emphasis on Iran’s non-compliance, the E3, much like the US, fell short of introducing measures that would ensure Tehran’s cooperation with IAEA.
In the State Department’s press briefing Wednesday, Spokesperson Matthew Miller refused to comment on why a resolution condemning Iran’s non-cooperation was not introduced at the IAEA meeting. Pressed by a reporter, Miller said the Biden administration would only work with other members “to clearly express that Iran should cooperate fully with the IAEA.”
This was in line with a joint statement delivered to the IAEA Board of Governors meeting on behalf of the US and 62 other member states, including all EU countries, Turkey, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
“Iran must provide technically credible answers to the IAEA,” the statement read, “in order to address the Agency’s legitimate questions on the outstanding locations, and to resolve the nuclear material discrepancy relating to its Uranium Conversion Facility.”
One major outstanding issue goes back to January 2023, when the IAEA inspectors at Fordow detected undeclared centrifuge configuration changes as well as particles of uranium enriched up to 83.7%.
In March 2023, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, visited Iran and brought back an agreement that was hailed as a breakthrough by both sides, but deemed insufficient and non-binding by its critics.
The agreement (or the Joint Statement) stood on the premise that Iran had “expressed its readiness” to “provide further information and access” and “allow the IAEA to implement further appropriate verification and monitoring activities” on a “voluntary” basis.
Six months on, the premise seems to have been shaky at best. According to IAEA,
The IAEA and the international community seem to believe that Iran’s nuclear program has reached levels not seen in countries without a nuclear weapons program.
Authorities in Tehran, of course, maintain that their nuclear program is entirely peaceful and a national right, based on international agreements. But many experts believe Iran’s nuclear expansion is hard to justify outside a weapons program.
For years, the IAEA has tried in vain to verify the nature of Iran’s nuclear activities, as the regime obstructs inspections and dodges questions in what many see as a time-buying tactic.
The Biden administration has so far been reluctant to exert more pressure on Iran over its nuclear program and has instead endeavored to buy the regime’s cooperation with a side deal.
Other western powers have tried to revive the JCPOA, only to get a taste of Tehran’s intransigence –as clearly voiced in the latest E3 statement at the IAEA Board of Governors meeting: “We have made significant efforts to negotiate and agree a return to the JCPOA, for which viable deals were tabled in March and in August 2022. In both cases, it is Iran that refused to sign these agreements, making unacceptable demands going beyond the scope of the JCPOA.