Regime Prepares Ahead Of Tehran Protest Anniversary

Amjad Amini has had multiple summons to the Intelligence Office in Saqqez over the past two days as regime forces brace for major protests marking the upcoming anniversary on September 16, the day Mahsa died in the hands of brutal morality police, following blows to the head.

In spite of the continued pressure, Mahsa’s father vowed to go ahead with commemorations at Mahsa's grave, which earlier this year was vandalized by what was believed to be regime affiliated thugs. "I have never accepted this, and we will hold the ceremony," he said.

Mahsa’s uncle was recently detained and transferred to an undisclosed location by security forces, with additional threats having been levied against Mahsa's brother, as the family is warned of legal repercussions for their mourning.

Adding to the climate of tension, numerous reports have emerged regarding the deployment of military armed forces to Kurdish cities across Iran. Human rights groups estimate that Saqqez, where Mahsa lived and was laid to rest, has seen the deployment of at least a thousand special forces, who are currently stationed within the city.

Mahsa’s death served as a catalyst for the formation of the Women, Life, Freedom movement and ignited nationwide protests, collectively known as the Iranian Uprising.

During the protests, the regime's armed forces resorted to brutal measures in an attempt to suppress dissent, resulting in the death of at least 570 citizens, including numerous children, as reported by human rights organizations.

The attacks, between March 2021 and June 2022, were carried out by the state-sponsored hacking group known as Charming Kitten, primarily focused on Israel but also affected Brazilian and Emirati organizations.

According to a report released by cybersecurity firm ESET, the cyber operations were executed using a specific backdoor malware called Sponsor. The hacking group exploited a software vulnerability in Microsoft Exchange servers to gain access to their targets, delivering the malware to the victim's technical infrastructure.

The malware enables hackers to execute their commands on the compromised servers of the targeted companies and steal sensitive information.

Companies in various sectors, including financial services, engineering, manufacturing, technology, law, telecommunications, and more, were among the victims of the regime-backed hackers. Additionally, a healthcare company in Brazil also fell victim to the attacks.

No specific information has been provided about the Emirati organization targeted.

Researchers from ESET have emphasized that the companies were targeted due to their failure to update their software infrastructure.

The incident followed warnings issued in 2021 by several cybersecurity organizations in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia about the potential threat of Iranian regime hackers exploiting vulnerabilities in Microsoft Exchange servers.

Israel’s Alma, an institute focused on threats to Israel, released a report Wednesday elaborating on how Armenia functions as a transit point in the Islamic Republic’s air corridor route to Syria and Lebanon. 

The report said Iran exploits Armenia not only to subvert Azerbaijan – an ally of Israel – but also to facilitate the Islamic Republic’s delivery of military equipment to Syria and then to Lebanon, underlining that “the Iranian effort in both arenas works against Israel.”

The Israeli institute pointed out that Iran supports Armenia in the conflict with Azerbaijan over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, and that Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) operate in the area while tensions are high and may flare up again in the near future. “Iran is acting against Azerbaijan on multiple fronts, with the IRGC’s Quds Force conducting operations in asymmetric warfare, information warfare, and transferring weapons and military equipment to Armenia.”

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Referring to the late-August Israeli air attack on Aleppo International Airport – the third one this year, Alma said that Aleppo area, home to about 60,000 Armenians, is “a geographical anchor within the Iranian corridor to Syria, and the Aleppo airport serves as one of the entry gates of the aerial route as part of the weapons corridor from Iran to Syria and Lebanon.” 

However, the report failed to note that after more than a decade of civil war, most Armenians who are Christians have fled from the city the city.

The report also mentioned Mehdi Sobhani, Iran’s former envoy to Syria who left his position in March to become the regime’s ambassador to Armenia. “The Iranian ambassador to Syria and Lebanon is normally a senior IRGC officer in charge of coordinating Iranian activity with Hezbollah and the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad, rather than a diplomat appointed by the Iranian Foreign Ministry,” Alma said, claiming that the selection of Sobhani as the Iranian envoy to Yerevan reflects “the Revolutionary Guards’ high regard for Armenia.”

Alma referred to an earlier report released in December 2022 about the role of Iranian airline Mahan Air -- including its passenger aircraft -- in arms transfers from Iran to Syria and Lebanon on behalf of the IRGC’s Quds Force. It explained that after Iranians airlines were exposed as carriers of arms and forces for the IRGC, Armenian airline Flight Travel LLC was created in 2018 “as a front for Mahan Air’s Armenian headquarters.” 

The US Treasury Department sanctioned Flight Travel LLC for aiding Mahan Air in transporting Shiite militia operatives from Pakistan and Afghanistan to Syria, the report underlined, claiming that “These aircraft most certainly carried not only militia operatives but also military equipment and weapons.” 

“Ma’raj (Meraj), Qeshm Fares, Pouya Air, and Iran Air are all Iranian airlines that operate within the Iranian corridor and are linked to the IRGC’s activities using cargo and passenger planes," the report said, adding that they are all sanctioned by the US. 

According to Alma’s investigation, three Armenian airlines and one Iranian are still operating between Iran and Armenia. “The deployment of Armenian planes could thwart intelligence surveillance of Iranian activity by making it more difficult to cover their tracks,” it said. Iran Air Tour – a subsidiary of Iran Air -- and Syrian airline Cham Wings play an important role in supporting the Iranian effort for the transfer of materiel and militias to Syria. 

While officially, the Germany Foreign Ministry only said talks concerned "consular cases", it is believed they focused on the several German citizens currently incarcerated in Iran, including Nahid Taghavi, a dual German-Iranian citizen who was arrested in October 2020 and subsequently sentenced on charges related to "propaganda against the system."

Another high profile case is that of Jamshid Sharmahd, who has been sentenced to execution by the Iranian judicial system. Concerns loom large that this sentence may be carried out imminently.

Sharmahd was accused of leading the pro-monarchist group Kingdom Assembly of Iran, which has been linked to a fatal bombing incident in 2008 and alleged plots for additional attacks within Iran. Sharmahd has denied the accusations.

Diplomatic relations between Iran and Germany remain marked by tension. Foreign Minister Baerbock consistently voicing her concern over the violent suppression of protests in Iran. Meanwhile, the Iranian government has accused both her and the German government of interference in Iran's internal affairs.

It is the first direct exchange between the two countries' foreign ministers since the Munich Security Conference last year.

Iran's diplomatic hostage taking policy has been at the top of the headlines in recent weeks after $6bn of frozen Iranian funds in South Korea is being released in exchange for five US-Iranians, and in return, five Iranians held in the US.

Iran is known to have expanded its program significantly since 2018, when the United States unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal –or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

On Wednesday, three signatories of the deal, UK, France, Germany (E3) delivered a joint statement at the IAEA Board of Governors meeting, in which they condemned Iran’s lack of transparency with regards to its nuclear program.

The E3 noted that “Iran has not allowed effective verification and monitoring activities in relation to the production and inventory of centrifuges and key components, heavy water and uranium ore concentrate for more than two and a half years.”

Despite their emphasis on Iran’s non-compliance, the E3, much like the US, fell short of introducing measures that would ensure Tehran’s cooperation with IAEA.

In the State Department’s press briefing Wednesday, Spokesperson Matthew Miller refused to comment on why a resolution condemning Iran’s non-cooperation was not introduced at the IAEA meeting. Pressed by a reporter, Miller said the Biden administration would only work with other members “to clearly express that Iran should cooperate fully with the IAEA.”

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This was in line with a joint statement delivered to the IAEA Board of Governors meeting on behalf of the US and 62 other member states, including all EU countries, Turkey, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

“Iran must provide technically credible answers to the IAEA,” the statement read, “in order to address the Agency’s legitimate questions on the outstanding locations, and to resolve the nuclear material discrepancy relating to its Uranium Conversion Facility.”

One major outstanding issue goes back to January 2023, when the IAEA inspectors at Fordow detected undeclared centrifuge configuration changes as well as particles of uranium enriched up to 83.7%.

In March 2023, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, visited Iran and brought back an agreement that was hailed as a breakthrough by both sides, but deemed insufficient and non-binding by its critics.

The agreement (or the Joint Statement) stood on the premise that Iran had “expressed its readiness” to “provide further information and access” and “allow the IAEA to implement further appropriate verification and monitoring activities” on a “voluntary” basis.

Six months on, the premise seems to have been shaky at best. According to IAEA,

• Iran has accumulated enriched uranium (5-60%) far beyond JCPOA limits
• Iran continues enrichment in Fordow, where inspectors detected undeclared particles of uranium enriched at 83.7%.
• Iran has installed an additional cascade of advanced centrifuges at Natanz and has continued to prepare the installation of additional advanced centrifuges at Fordow.

The IAEA and the international community seem to believe that Iran’s nuclear program has reached levels not seen in countries without a nuclear weapons program.

Authorities in Tehran, of course, maintain that their nuclear program is entirely peaceful and a national right, based on international agreements. But many experts believe Iran’s nuclear expansion is hard to justify outside a weapons program.

For years, the IAEA has tried in vain to verify the nature of Iran’s nuclear activities, as the regime obstructs inspections and dodges questions in what many see as a time-buying tactic.

The Biden administration has so far been reluctant to exert more pressure on Iran over its nuclear program and has instead endeavored to buy the regime’s cooperation with a side deal.

Other western powers have tried to revive the JCPOA, only to get a taste of Tehran’s intransigence –as clearly voiced in the latest E3 statement at the IAEA Board of Governors meeting: “We have made significant efforts to negotiate and agree a return to the JCPOA, for which viable deals were tabled in March and in August 2022. In both cases, it is Iran that refused to sign these agreements, making unacceptable demands going beyond the scope of the JCPOA.