Iran International
A former Iranian diplomat and pundits in Tehran agree that the JCPOA cannot be revived in its past form and the United States is looking for new arrangements.
Iran’s advancements in uranium enrichment technology, its continuing interventions in the region and changed circumstances make the 2015 nuclear agreement out of place. However, Washington and its European allies are worried about Iran reaching the nuclear break-out point and are looking for ways to forge a new deal with Tehran.
Jalal Sadatian, Iran’s former ambassador in Britain told ILNA news website in Tehran that if the United States does not find a solution to the nuclear crisis with Iran, it might up the ante and trigger the return of international sanctions at the UN Security Council.
Sadatian argued that Washington was not after more tensions with Iran in 2021 and 2022 as it negotiated for the revival of the JCPOA, but all attempts to reach a deal failed. Now, some reports speak of a limited deal in which Iran receives partial sanctions relief in exchange for limiting the production of fissile material.
Amir-Ali Abolfat’h, a commentator on international affairs who is considered an expert on US issues in Iran, told Fararu website that a partial agreement does not seem to a feasible alternative for both sides. The US is concerned about the knowhow Iran has achieved in uranium enrichment and what it really wants is to eliminate the danger for good.
The US is concerned that if problems emerge in the future after a deal, Iran “would have plenty of means to achieve new progress in its nuclear program,” he said and added that the US cannot limit the scientific advances Iran has made, “nor bomb it out of existence.”
Iran on the other hand, would not agree to serious nuclear curbs simply for partial lifting of sanctions, Abolfat’h said.
What the United States wants from Iran goes even beyond the nuclear issue, the Iranian expert said. “They want multiple JCPOAs,” not just nuclear deal, he said. They want a comprehensive deal preventing Iran’s interventions in the region and weapons proliferation, making the revival of the 2015 accord impractical.
A recent article in Foreign Policy by university professors Ali Vaez and Vali Nasr in the United States has attracted a lot of attention among experts in Iran. The authors argued that a comprehensive deal, including a nuclear and a regional agreement would be the best solution for the Middle East. But comments about the article in the Iranian media reveal a misunderstanding by local pundits, who see the suggestion more as a partial deal than a comprehensive solution.
Abolfat’h for example argued that the proposal by the two US experts is “reductionist and unrealistic,” and Iran would not agree with any partial lifting of sanctions. He added that the two authors are close to the Biden administration and “their proposals is not necessarily compatible with Iran’s national interests.”
Sadatian, however, sounded more optimistic that reduction of regional tensions could help the process of achieving a lasting deal with the United States. He pointed out that although Iran’s March agreement with Saudi Arabia to restore relations is not a decisive factor by itself, but it can help smooth the way toward a deal with the West.
He also warned about Russia’s interest in torpedoing any agreement, echoing past concerns by many Iranian observers.
“If we want to revisit all the strange ups and downs in our relations with the West, we can easily see the footprint of Russia that has tried not to allow us to get closer to the United States.”
The families of Majid Kazemi, Saleh Mirhashmi, and Saeed Yaqoubi and human rights campaigners say there is no evidence against them.
The state broadcaster’s local TV channel in Esfahan (Isfahan) – where the three are being held – aired footage of their forced confessions on Monday night, adding to growing fears that they are about to be hanged.
The prisoners’ relatives were reportedly told by the court of appeal not to come back to the judiciary’s office because “the prosecutor of Esfahan wants to execute these three protestors.”
Iranian expatriate communities plan to pour onto streets of their hometowns for demonstrations against the executions by the Islamic Republic on Saturday, May 20.
Canada-based dissident figure Hamed Esmaeilion, whose daughter and wife were killed in the shooting down of Flight PS752 by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard in 2020, is among the organizers of the event, dubbed “Unanimous Against Executions in Iran.”
The three prisoners' families have repeatedly stated that there is no reliable evidence implicating the three in the death of two IRGC’s Basij militia members and a police officer in protests of November last year, in what Persian media have dubbed the ‘Esfahan House’ case.
There are a number of discrepancies in the prosecution case, including the time of the killings and the fact that the murder weapons described by the judiciary do not match the details of the confessions.
According to an audio file released on Sunday of Kazemi talking to his cousin, he was coerced into confession by threats to his family of rape and death.
The prisoners were allowed to meet their families on Sunday night, further fuelling speculations that their execution is imminent. An organized pro-regime Twitter campaign has been launched, urging the authorities to carry out the execution.
Fars news agency, affiliated with the IRGC, ran a piece on its website on Tuesday, claiming that foreign-based media – deemed hostile by the regime – have been trying to stop the justice being meted out to the prisoners.
On Sunday, protesters against the executions gathered overnight outside Esfahan’s prison. Videos posted by activists show dozens chanting slogans in front of the prison, while gunfire was also heard as thick smoke caused by teargas enveloped the area.
Opposition activists say the death penalty is being used against the Esfahan House three as an intimidation tactic to stop further protests.
The United Nations said last week that Iran has executed 209 people so far this year, calling the record "abominable".
Earlier in the month, Amnesty International urged Iran to drop the execution of the three as well as that of six ethnic Arab men who gave “tortured-tainted” confessions.
The latest mention of the need for direct talks was expressed by international affairs analyst Hassan Beheshtipur in an interview with Entekhab newspaper in Tehran on Monday. Other commentators in Iran urging a resolution to the impasse in the nuclear issue have also occasionally argued in favor of direct negotiations with the US.
Speaking about a report by the Wall Street Journal last week on Europeans probing Washington for fresh talks with Tehran, the analyst said that there is very little European powers can do to press the United States, and direct talks would be the only viable option.
A reformist politician, Esmail Gerami-Moqaddam wrote in Etemad newspaper in Tehran on Wednesday that direct US-Iran talks have the advantage of eliminating mediators. He also expressed doubt about the influence of Europeans on the United States regarding Iran, and insisted that ‘reformists’ in Iran strongly believe in direct negotiations.
Although Iran’s ruler Ali Khamenei has banned direct negotiations with the US since former President Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA accord in 2018, Tehran is hard pressed by US sanctions and some wonder it there could be a chance now for direct talks.
In January 2022, when nuclear negotiators were hard at work in Vienna to revive the JCPOA, Iranian officials and even IRGC-linked media gave signals that direct negotiations might be possible if “a good agreement is at hand.” In other words, Tehran wanted to dangle the prospect to get more concessions from the Biden administration.
An Iranian conservative lawmaker, Gholamreza Nouri, told local media in April 2022 that the Iranian delegation in the Vienna nuclear talks were given the green light to hold direct contacts with their American counterpart, but some hardliners in Tehran prevented the move.
Nouri’s statement could have meant that Khamenei had at some point authorized direct talks, but others, most likely hardliners such as former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili with influence on the hardliner government prevented the move.
The Vienna negotiations and efforts to revive the JCPOA lasted 18 months and eventually reached an impasse last September. Since then, the prospects for progress have become less likely for several reasons.
The Wall Street Journal mentioned in its report that the Biden administration cannot decide how to proceed with Iran given the dynamics in US politics, with bipartisan opposition in Congress to relieving Iran from pressure while Tehran has shown no interest in changing its aggressive policies.
Iran has doubled-down on its support for militant groups for attacking Israel this year, cushioned by an agreement with Saudi Arabia to restore relations after a seven-year hiatus.
Iran’s military support for Russia in Ukraine and the Iranian regime’s brutal crackdown on anti-government protesters have also complicated the prospect of any fresh talks leading to an agreement.
It appears increasingly likely that the Biden administration looks at ways to have a broader agreement with Iran that would stop its regional destabilizing activities.
Iran’s recent deal with Saudi Arabia could be the best test for this objective, but except talk of de-conflicting in Yemen, there is little sign of Tehran willing to give up its campaign against Israel and its pledge to force the US out of the Persian Gulf.
While some speak of a possible interim deal to simply stop Iran’s uranium enrichment to near weapons-grade quality in exchange for partial sanctions relief, Tehran is apparently opposed to the idea.
Esmail Qaani, the commander of Iran’s extraterritorial Quds Force said on Friday that Tehran will support “Palestinian heroes” launching “30 attacks daily” against Israel. “This is the result of the resistance front and the global Islamic mobilization,” by the Islamic Republic.