Politicians, Media In Iran Suggest Returning To JCPOA Is Essential
A former Iranian diplomat says the implementation of the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) is essential for the Islamic Republic's survival.
A former Iranian diplomat says the implementation of the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) is essential for the Islamic Republic's survival.
Nosratollah Tajik also said in his interview with reformist daily Etemad that the revival of the JCPOA has been almost forgotten as a result of miscalculations by Iran and the West.
Russia and China have taken advantage of the situation to strengthen their presence in the region, he argued, warning that Iran should not ignore the implications of this strategic development.
Referring to Iran's rapprochement with Saudi Arabia, Tajik noted that good regional relations will be helpful only if Iran has no problems in its international relations. In other words, good ties with neighbors are essential but not enough for Iran. The revival of the JCPOA can pave the way for Iran to leave behind its global isolation.
This comes while according to Tajik, the West sees the recent joint military exercise by Russia, China and Iran in regional waters as a manifestation of Tehran's pro-East policy and a challenge to the United States.
In another development, former government spokesman Ali Rabiei wrote in a commentary in Etemad that "Those who thought US sanctions would benefit Iran have now realized that sanctions cost Iranian lives and bring about breath-taking poverty to the country.
Many Iranian officials including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have claimed since the 2010s that sanctions have helped Iran to make indigenous progress, but they failed to present any evidence of economic success, while economists have maintained that the sanctions have led to Iran's worst crisis in modern history particularly by reducing oil exports and restricting international banking.
Meanwhile, Rabiei predicted that Iran's problems are likely to redouble in the current year as a result of the nationwide protests that have rocked the country in since September 2022. He further predicted that "what started last year is most likely to continue in the current year. He said, "Sometimes such events affect a whole generation by bringing to surface deep-rooted social, economic and political problems as well as Iran's fundamentalist cultural policies" that bring a modern nation face to face with the government.
Likewise, he said that last year's protests have their roots in developments throughout 2020 and 2021, including elections that were not free and fair. Also, a pandemic that was not properly managed and US sanctions, that continued even after Donald Trump left the White House although the situation of sanctions has been slightly less difficult for Iran during Biden's presidency. However, the economic problems resulting from the sanctions created a state of despair that strengthened other destabilizing factors.
Despite these lessons, conservative daily Jomhouri Eslami wrote in an editorial on April 3 that Iran's ultraconservative President Ebrahim "Raisi is adamant to go ahead with his failed policies."
The daily wrote that rhetoric by senior officials during the first two weeks of the Iranian New Year that started on March 21 show that the government is not inclines to change counter-productive policies. The daily was referring in particular to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's position on hijab enforcement and other cultural issues in his New Year address, without naming him. The daily advised officials to see the people's lack of trust in the government, their daily protests in different forms and the number of those who leave the country to realize that “Iran is not feeling well.”
The editorial further suggested that the government should end the political game over the negotiations to revive the JCPOA and reconsider its approach to relations with the West to solve Iran’s serious economic crisis.
The situation has been grave in the past several years but since the administration of Ebrahim Raisi assumed office in 2021, the entire energy management system is going haywire even faster, drawing backlash from people and even regime officials.
Iran has one of the biggest reserves of oil and natural gas and its economy is chiefly dependent on the revenues from crude oil exports. But due to sanctions and mismanagement it has failed to modernize its electricity sector and the country faces power shortages most of the year.
The regime has a hypocritical approach about the sales of fuel to foreign buyers. While it boasts about the growing level of sales, which mainly occur through vast networks of smugglers under the unofficial supervision of the Revolutionary Guards, it periodically claims to have stopped traffickers from smuggling some shipments of gasoline and diesel out of the country.
The oil-rich country has been facing a serious scarcity of gasoline in its domestic energy market because fuel is subsidized in Iran and much cheaper than in neighboring countries, which leads to small and large scale smuggling.
The country also faces gasoline and diesel shortages due to a lack of refining capacity, but millions of liters of fuel is smuggled out of Iran daily, which betrays a large-scale smuggling networks.
In a recently released video, Iranian lawmaker Malek Shariati said "Perhaps we are ashamed to admit that 1.5 billion liters of liquid fuel are smuggled from our power plants per year.” He added that the tankers carrying government-supplied cheap fuel are not unloaded at the power plants and documents are forged to cover for that. Even if the regulatory body finds out about it, the fine is so low that it is still worth it, Shariati noted, adding that most of the country’s diesel smuggling happens in power plants, implying that the owners of the power plants are responsible for the fuel smuggling in the country.
According to Mir-Ali-Ashraf Abdollah Pourihoseini, a former vice president of Ministry of Economic Affairs and head of the Iranian Privatization Organization, in recent years, many key power plants have been handed over to insider investors because the government did not have the needed budget to overhaul them. However, the new owners did not take any steps to overhaul the aging plants.
But who are these new owners? For instance, Abadan power plant with a capacity of 814 megawatts was handed over to the Headquarters of Imam's Directive, or simply Setad, parastatal organization under direct control of the Supreme Leader.
Zagros power plant with a capacity of 656 megawatts was handed over to the Foundation of Martyrs and Veterans Affairs at the price of less than 8 trillion rials – or about $16 million dollars in today’s exchange rate. Khatam al-Anbiya Construction Headquarter -- the engineering arm of the IRGC – acquired Sabalan power plant with a 960-megawatt capacity at a price of about $8 million. The Armed Forces Pension Fund and Social Security Investment Company bought Gilan power plant, and the list goes on.
Public property has been “privatized” by giving away key infrastructure to powerful cliques of military men and bureaucrats who easily enrich themselves.
Moreover, In the budget bill for the current Iranian year, which started March 21, the government has granted new permits to some departments such as the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic to sell oil on behalf of the government and earn some of the income. Based on the legislation, the General Staff of the Armed Forces is allowed to export three billion euros worth of crude oil and oil products through small private refineries after the approval of the country's budget organization.
Iran, which is under US oil export sanctions, has used this method before to make illicit oil shipments. However, in the past this has led to large corruption cases.
A well-publicized scandal broke in 2013 when authorities arrested Babak Zanjani, a businessman, for embezzling at least $2.7 billion from illicit oil sales during international sanctions from 2009-2013. According to legal experts, this method of allocating money to government entities violates the constitution.
Many members of Iran's hardliner dominated parliament are former members of the IRGC. Moreover, the government has started a new privatization plan to sell public assets presumably to well-connected regime insiders. Iranian media and economic experts have characterized the new privatization plan by the government as "a plunder of public property" and "economic apartheid."
Mohsen Mirdamadi said on Sunday that "If something similar to Mehsa Amini's death (which sparked nationwide antiregime protests) happens once again, there is still this hidden potential in society to rise again and become the source of widespread protests."
In an opinion piece on Tehran's leading reformist daily Etemad, Mirdamadi said, "Experience has shown that as time passes, the protests will be stronger than in previous periods."
The former member of the parliament emphasized that it is not possible to solve Iran's current crises and challenges with "superficial reforms" and that "serious changes need to take place" without elaborating on the details of the changes.
Referring to the ‘women, life, liberty’ movement, he said that these protests "were a spark to the gunpowder of demands” of the people, suggesting that people had been fed up with the strict rules that enforced by the Islamic Republic. “Nothing has happened that we can say grievances have been resolved,” he said, referring to the popular protests that have led to the death of over 500 protesters in the hands of the regime’s security forces.
He also decried the Islamic Republic for not taking into account the opinions of the general public, saying that the regime has shifted its focus from peoples’ vote to a military rule.
His remarks came as the Islamic Republic is suppressing any voice of dissent and has moved to deprive women, who fail to comply to its strict hijab regulations, from public services.
Mohsen Borhani, a professor of criminal law at Tehran university, who was recently sacked for criticizing the regime after the execution of four young protesters, said in a tweet on Sunday that "Preventing women from entering public places or not providing services at airports, etc., on the pretext of not observing hijab, has no legal bases and is a completely illegal action."
Attacking people and their property or violating their dignity and rights are criminal acts and victims have the right to self-defense according to Article 156 of the Islamic Penal Code of Iran, Borhani wrote. He was referring to a viral video that showed that flight ticket issuing agents at Shiraz airport do not provide services to women without the mandatory hijab.
Conflicts between vigilantes and women defying hijab in public occur almost daily now while authorities including the President insist on enforcement of rules. As regime supporters take the law into their own hands to combat the hijab rebellion, a man emptying a yogurt bucket onto the heads of two uncovered women has caused outrage in Iran.
Iran’s Chief Justice Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei this week reiterated threats against those daring to uncover. He warned women will be “prosecuted without mercy,” he said, without saying what the punishment entails.
The conflict over the observance of the Islamic Republic’s strict interpretation of the dress code – or hijab – has been a contentious issue in the past few weeks, leading to tensions that can suddenly blow into confrontations and protests.
Following the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, arrested for not wearing the hijab in a proper manner, women are increasingly appearing in public and on social media without the headscarf, with many burning it in public protest. Defiance of hijab rules as a form of civil disobedience has hugely grown across the country after her death. Many believe that there is no sign ‘hijabless’ women will allow to be bullied again into wearing the hijab.