Even Without Protests, Iran's Government Was Facing A Crisis
An article in Tehran media says even if the nationwide protests had not occurred, the government of President Ebrahim Raisi would have faced serious problems.
An article in Tehran media says even if the nationwide protests had not occurred, the government of President Ebrahim Raisi would have faced serious problems.
The article by journalist Davoud Heshmati in Shargh said Raisi was too optimistic toward the loose coalition among conservative groups that formed his government and took over the parliament. In fact, popular protests may have delayed the activation of fault-lines within the government and preserved its unity. "The coalition was too fragile," Heshmati wrote.
"Despite the delay, in its emergence, the political deadlock is quite visible. The government is incapable of making decisions and this makes next year's developments interesting," he said.
According to the author, "the Iranian society is alive, but Iranian politics is in coma." The Iranian society is anything but "indifferent." Everyone thought the youth were apolitical, but they managed to create a great movement in the streets even without a leadership and organization. What brought them together was the demands for freedom in choosing their lifestyle.
The protests that erupted last September after the death of a young woman in police custody over her ‘inadequate hijab’, was led by teenagers and young people, especially women.
Another issue Heshmati pointed out was that the Iranians had already lost hope in elections after former president Hassan Rouhani refused to or was unable to address the issue of democracy and representation and instead dedicated his efforts to resolving the nuclear issue with the West, only to be blocked by hardliners.
Heshmati wrote that part of the reason hardliners took over the parliament in 2020 and the presidency in 2021, was the people's disillusionment about the possibility of change and reform after eight years of a centrist president. The majority simply did not turn out to vote, giving hardliners the victory.
As a result, Heshmati argued, political action that should have happened during elections spilled to the streets where activists with little or no political background took the lead. Now, they have returned to their homes, tired and battered. The government in Iran is adamant not to recognize their movement and the opposition outside the country can only radicalize the movement and work hard to advocate the demand for regime change.
This has led to a situation in which the society is in an unpleasant political state and the government has lost its capacity to handle the economic crisis because of the impact of the protests and rivalries that are tearing apart the political system.
As a way out of this situation, Heshmati suggested that the regime needs to restore the people's trust in the political system by attaching importance to the ballot box in the parliamentary elections in 2024 and by encouraging everyone to take part by promising representation and allowing political parties to become active.
Meanwhile, both the protesters who took to the streets for months and politicians in Iran maintain that"Iranians no longer believe in the reformist-conservative dichotomy," and they are unlikely to settle for stage-managed elections that would bring the same old useless politicians to the parliament.
In the absence of rigorous street protests, people who chant slogans from their rooftops or out of their windows every night make it known that their demands are beyond what reformists and conservatives tolerated by the regime can claim to meet.
Meanwhile, like many other politicians and analysts during the past months, an article in Donya-e Eqtesad (Economic World) pointed out that Iran's domestic problems are unlikely to be solved without addressing key foreign policy issues most markedly the nuclear issue.
Referring to mass disqualification of well-known reformist figures in previous elections, Ghavami told Entekhab news website in Tehran that the people are unlikely to vote for a few low-key reformists who are usually allowed to run for the parliament.
"However, as a lot of people will take part in the elections anyway, they are likely to cast blank ballots in the 2024 parliamentary election," he added in the March 24 interview. However, Ghavami pointed out that the country's biggest problem in the new Iranian year that started on March 21 will be the back-breaking high cost of living.
“Reformists are those politicians and public figures who have long argued that Iran needs change and reforms, but have believed that in its current form the Islamic regime can evolve and become a more democratic political system. Opposing them are ‘principlists’ or conservatives and hardliners who traditionally did not believe in liberalization.
In the 2020 parliamentary and 2021 presidential elections, the Guardian Council that vets candidates according to the constitution blocked almost all reformists from putting forth their candidacy. As a result, all three government branches are now dominated by hardliners loyal to Iran’s authoritarian ruler Ali Khamenei.
Ghavami pointed out the "non-competitive" nature of elections in Iran and said the regime will hold next year’s elections anyway regardless of the people's reluctance to turn out to vote.
In another comment, Ghavami said that Iran needs reforms in the area of foreign policy, but the current administration of President Ebrahim Raisi is incapable of changing course. Probably out of political correctness, he did not mention that foreign policy is controlled by Khamenei.
Rising prices, Ghavami said, are likely to cause a political, economic and social catastrophe in the coming months. Positive change in Iran is unlikely as long as the government cannot solve its domestic and international problems and fails to respond to the demands Iranians have put forward during their protest.
Meanwhile, in an interview, academic Mohammad Javad Gholamreza Kashi said most of Iran's problems are due to the fact that hardliners in the government and parliament have refused to recognize the idea of people's participation in politics.
He likened Iran's current situation to a case of childbirth during which the hardliners are determined to kill the baby before it is born. This comes while the society is looking for a natural birth, he said.
Kashi, an assistant professor of law and political science reiterated that while the people of Iran have pluralist demands, the hardliners continue beating on the drums of unilateralism. Explaining this in sociological terms, Kashi said that hardliners are adamant to solve a modern problem with an old and outdated solution.
He traced back Iranians demands to the 1905 Constitutional Revolution that although led to modernism in the form of new buildings, roads, railways and airports after less than half a century, its demands for the rule of law, freedom and justice were never met.
In the meantime, while the people have embraced modernism, Iran's new rulers are the same religious fundamentalist they used to be at the beginning the 20th century. "The baby is still not born," Kashi said, adding that "the people are running out of patience and demand a Cesarean surgery while the hardliners are likely to pull a new trick out of their sleeves."
During his Friday prayer sermons, which was the first in the fasting month of Ramadan, Mowlavi Abdolhamid said, "In the past, we have had elections in which we elected representatives and presidents, but they were not real elections, they were appointments.”
In a free election, people have a choice to vote for whoever they deem fit to represent them, but in Iran the Guardian Council puts forth a number of their cherrypicked insiders, who are not capable of running the country, he said.
He further described killing of protesters and harsh treatment of people detained during over six months of nationwide rallies against the regime as a "big mistake" and a "grave sin."
"There are protests everywhere in the world, but they (authorities) listen to the people and do not kill them like they did in Iran. Killing protesting people in Iran was a big mistake. They should not have hit and killed people with gunfire. Many people went to prison and the detainees were treated harshly, which was a painful and regretful incident,” he said.
Abdolhamid went on to say that neither religion, nor sect, should be a factor when it comes to elections, noting that the only people who should be in managerial positions are those who can make Iran prosperous, not like the current officials who only care about filling their own pockets.
Although street protests are not as frequent as the past few months, peoples’ hearts are "wounded and in pain," the cleric maintained.
Portraying the previous Iranian year as a grim year with lots of ups and downs that led to the creation of the current protest movement, he said, “The people of Iran felt difficulties regarding many issues, they saw themselves in trouble and failure in life, they were under the most severe economic pressures that threaten their livelihood."
In addition to economic issues, the outspoken Sunni leader said systematic corruption, as well as unpopular domestic and foreign policies were other factors led the people to revolt.
This Friday again authorities shut down internet access in Zahedan, the provincial capital of Sistan-Baluchestan where Abdolhamid delivers his sermons and it is home to the country’s Sunni Baluch minority of up to two million people. Cyberspace watchdog NetBlocks confirmed the major disruption to internet service, saying that the incident follows an ongoing pattern of network blackouts targeting protests during Friday prayers.
Following his sermons, people of the city held rallies to protest against the Islamic Republic for the 25th week in a row, chanting anti-regime slogans like “We Don’t Want a Child-Killing Regime.” The Sunni Baluch population have taken to the streets in Zahedan every Friday after prayers since September 30 when government forces cracked down on protesters and killed more than 80 protesters, known as Bloody Friday. Earlier in the day, Haalvsh website, a local news outlet that monitors rights violations in Iran's Baluchestan region, said 121 of the protesters who were killed in Zahedan and Khash on Bloody Friday were identified.