Tehran Infighting Continues Amid Iran's Biggest Political Crisis
The ongoing nationwide uprising in Iran appears to have led to an escalation in confrontations among various ruling conservative and hardliner groups.
The ongoing nationwide uprising in Iran appears to have led to an escalation in confrontations among various ruling conservative and hardliner groups.
How to deal with the protests and solve the biggest crisis in the clerical regime’s 43-year history is one of the main subjects that divides Iran's conservatives who have already lost the nation's trust. They have been controlling all three branches of government for more than a year, with disastrous economic consequences.
Although Iran's situation is currently more serious to allow any room for factional infighting, the hardline conservatives who have refused any reforms during the past four decades, and the neo-cons who want to appear open to some changes, are currently at loggerheads.
Hardliner conservatives refuse to accept any suggestion of reforming the political system in the face of an uprising, while the neo-cons have made vague references to better governance.
According to Rouydad24 website, the difference over the approach to the protests could be the starting point of delineations among various parts of Iran's conservative camp. One of the signs of emerging differences occurred when an influential member of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's office, Mehdi Fazaeli, cautioned Mashhad’s firebrand Friday Prayer Imam Ahmad Alamolhoda earlier this week over his insulting comments about Iranian women.
This, at the same time, could mean that the Islamic Republic can shrewdly expel insiders when the regime's survival is at stake. Although Alamolhoda has been criticized on many occasions for his radical fundamentalist comments, this was the first time he got a serious slap in the mouth in public by someone he cannot respond to.
On the other hands neo-cons such as Majles Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Tourism Minister Ezzatollah Zarghami have called for "a change in governance" in the interest of some open-mindedness that would appease and calm angry protesters. Khabar Online wrote that the duo do not want to tie their political future to the fate of an inefficient president and that this is part of their attempt to rebrand themselves for the 2025 Majles elections and 2025 presidential race.
At the same time, ultraconservative Raja News has likened the neo-cons to "flags in the wind" and accused them of lacking steadfastness and compromising conservative values such as compulsory hijab.
The two sides' media outlets are also fiercely fighting over a vacancy in Raisi's cabinet afterf Roads Minister Rostam Ghassemi resigned. The IRGC's weekly newspaper Sobh-e Sadeq has also harshly criticized Ghalibaf, who is still an IRGC general, for his idea of "reforming governance," nonetheless, the IRGC's weekly newspaper elsewhere admitted that "The country's governance needs essential changes," probably meaning that change is needed but it should not be made by Ghalibaf.
A statement by lawmaker Jalil Rahimi Jahanabadi in an interview on November 23, revealed that the infighting is deeper and wider than quarrels between two politicians or their media outlets. Jahanabadi who is a member of the National Security Committee of the Iranian Parliament said: "The heads of the three powers of the Iranian government, i.e., President Raisi, Judiciary Chief Ejei and Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf, are constantly swearing at West and East instead of trying to solve the country's problems."Meanwhile, he pointed out that the "violent security approach" to protests cannot solve Iran's problems.
Although for the first time a politician has taken criticism of the government to a higher level, still, like all Iranian politicians, Jahanabadi was too intimidated to name Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as the man responsible for Iran's problems.
"The pressures by the enemies, the sanctions, the system's inefficiency and the government's weakness have left the political system in a situation that it cannot meet the people's demands," said Jahanabadi who also pointed out that views of officials are in sharp contrast to what people think. Meanwhile, he harshly criticized "non-elected" conservative individuals such as the editor of Kayhan newspaper who constantly invade people's privacy and speak for the people without having any credentials.
The infighting among Iran's unwanted conservatives is reminiscent of a Persian saying: "Two guests hate each other, but the host hates both."
Hacktivist group ‘Anonymous’ -- that has focused its cyber operations on Iran since the current wave of protests started mid-September – released Monday audio messages by someone who is claimed to be Nader Safaverdi, one of the former commanders of 5th Nasr Division.
The unit, known as Sepah-e Nsar Corps, is one of the divisions of IRGC’s ground force was formed with recruits from northeastern Khorasan province in 1982 during the Iran–Iraq War. The unit fought in several of the important operations during the conflict and after the war was stationed in the province near the border with Afghanistan.
Safaverdi, 67, who apparently has been living in the US since 2007 or 2009, is not well-known in the media but was evidently close to Esmail Ghaani (Qaani), the current commander of IRGC’s Quds (Qods) Force -- a division primarily responsible for extraterritorial military and clandestine operations – and to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (Qalibaf), both former commanders of the 5th Nasr Division.
The files seem to be audio messages shared in a WhatsApp or Telegram group with many IRGC ranking members, as Safaverdi started his message with greetings to Seyyed Hossein Mousavi and Hadi Sa’adati, both IRGC commanders formerly serving in the 5th Nasr Division. The group is probably comprised of IRGC members hailing from Khorasan province because during his message Safaverdi once said he would be invited to their meeting if he was still in Mashhad, and referred to similar meetings organized by Abbas Shamlou, another IRGC commander that used to serve as the governor of Mashhad.
He urged his fellow comrades for “unbiased and clear monitoring” of the activities of foreign-based opposition figures and the protesters in provinces. He said one of the ways to understand the movement against the Islamic Republic is by heeding his advice, and that of other regime insiders who live abroad.
Criticizing “his friends" for limiting themselves to information released by Iran International, BBC, VOA, and other dissident outlets, he said monitoring means being aware of statements released during protests against the Islamic Republic in other countries and claimed that he has access to such information.
He mentioned the gatherings in Berlin and Canada, where 50,000 to 100,000 people held protest rallies, as the largest demonstrations against the regime. In a tone as if he is teaching something new to the group, Safaverdi said the slogans by the Iranian expatriates are not like what they have heard in the past 43 years since the Islamic Revolution. He argued that the current wave of the protests is not in support of any specific ethnicity or even the Iranian royal family. “They officially chant slogans in support of the country’s integrity,” he said. He claimed that another motto the protesters follow is distancing themselves from the older opposition groups or figures, such as Reza Pahlavi or the exiled group Mojahedin Khalq organization, known as MEK.
He added that the closest figure to a leader the foreign-based opposition has, is Canada-based activist Hamed Esmaeilion -- who lost his daughter and wife in the downing of a Ukrainian passenger plane in January 2020 by the Revolutionary Guard. The veteran IRGC commander believes that he is the symbol of an Iranian hurt and oppressed by the regime.
Safaverdi then mentioned the Islamic Republic’s lobby groups in the US including allegedly NIAC– or the National Iranian American Council – saying that the opposition movement has also distanced itself from such groups in a clear message that they would not negotiate with the Islamic Republic. He said that he believed NIAC was formed upon an order by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to follow the Islamic Republic's agenda and mentioned some examples of their long history of lobbying for Iran. For instance, he mentioned Trita Parsi, a former NIAC president, as the courier between Khamenei and former President Barack Obama. Safaverdi claimed that NIAC is being devastated by the current front of opposition as its members are even banned from attending the events against the Islamic Republic.
Safaverdi claimed the new opposition keeps calling on world bodies and countries to increase diplomatic pressure on Tehran, adding that anyone who supports lifting the sanctions on the Islamic Republic or negotiating with the regime has no place in the current opposition, which has a global consensus.
He also claimed that the new opposition has a wide range of influence both inside and outside the country, from students to teachers and professors, from NASA scientists to employees of Google and Facebook, noting that these new faces have not been identified before the current wave of protests.
He urged his fellow group members to deliver his points to the authorities, including Ghalibaf and President Ebrahim Raisi – also hailing from Mashhad – calling himself an “American gladiator” who is spending every minute of his days on the issues about the Islamic Republic. Safaverdi said he had never seen such a universal unity and consensus behind a cause before the current wave of the protests in Iran. He also inadvertently praised the main motto of the protests – Women, Life, Liberty -- as something that resonates with all the people of the world.
Note: NIAC denies it is affiliated with the Islamic Republic or acts as a lobby group for the Iranian government.
The research conducted by the National Security Monitor magazine for its September-October 2022 issue, says the current uprising is pluralist, has major objectives to change the bigger picture in Iran, is cyberspace-based, and does not seem to be backed by any institution.
The magazine is believed to be close to the Islamic Republic's Supreme National Security Council.
The research further found that collective reactions to events relating to the protests spread quickly although there seems to be no formal organization and leadership for the movement.
Other findings of the research include the fact that the uprising aims to bring about fundamental changes in Iran's political establishment, is backed by various layers of socio-political groups while also enjoying wholehearted support from the Iranian opposition abroad.
The government policy of suppressing protests by force and then failing to address the underlying problems has led to a worsening situation after each round of unrest and today, it might have become too late to come to peace with the disgruntled masses.
The study also found that although previously major protests occurred almost once in every decade [like the protests by the student movement in 1999 and the post-election unrest in 2009],during the past five or six years the interval between various protests have become shorter and they have occurred every one or two years. Soon, major protests may take place in Iran once in every two to three months, the study predicted.
The conclusions corroborate the attestations of individual social scientists and political activists who have generally attributed the protest in Iran to promises that have not been met for a long time and demands that have been ignored by several governments during the past 40 years.
Meanwhile the study also observed that the driving force behind the current movement are youngsters born after the second half of the 1990s. This part of the findings also corroborate with what Iranian sociologists and political activists have said or written during the past two months.
The main problem of the new generation appears to be lack of social freedoms within an Islamic system and general hopelessness about the future.
As this study and several Iranian sociologists have observed, the disillusioned new generation of Iranians is fed up with senseless and inefficient bureaucracy and at the same time does not believe in the outdated and meaningless ideology the Islamic Republic has been propagating during the past four decades.
Generally, according to this research, the current movement in Iran is marked by a generation gap, fluctuating at times between activism and mutiny, not being mainly about economic demands, changing mood between anger and hope, using opportunities provided by events, and a horizontal steering structure [lack of formal leadership].
Meanwhile, according to the study the way the Iranian government has been handling the protests have not changed during the past four decade. It is common knowledge that the government's first and only solution to any crisis like the current uprising is handling it violently. At times, such as during the protests against rising fuel prices in 2019, Iranian government forces have killed hundreds to silence uprisings. But this way of handling crises, coupled with failure to address systemic problems is only a temporary solution and protests flare up as soon as another event triggers a new round of protests. What triggered the current wave of protests in Iran was the murder of a young woman in mid-September while she was in morality police custody.
According to an article in reformist daily Etemad Online on Tuesday, Tabriz representative Ahmad AlirezaBeigi – himself a conservative politician and a retired police officer – said that despite demands to hold special sessions in parliamentary committees to discuss the protests, some representatives create obstacles to prevent any probe into the high number of people killed.
He said constituents have been demanding special meetings either at the Internal Affairs or the National Security committees. He also dais the interior ministry should be held accountable.
He claimed that the attempts have been stifled mainly by the members of the Front of Islamic Revolution Stability (Paydari), a so-called “principlist” political party sometimes described as the "extreme end of the fundamentalist camp" and "Iran’s most right-wing party."
Alireza Beigi added that how authorities react to the current developments is very important in shaping the unfolding events. He mentioned the bloody crackdown on protesters in Sistan-Baluchestan province as an example, saying that people sought accountability over the rape of a young girl in the city of Chabahar by a police officer and shooting nearly 100 people in the provincial capital Zahedan on September 30, that became known as the Bloody Friday of Zahedan. But when a representative from the province talked about the incidents in parliament, his microphone was turned off as hardliners reacted harshly. As a result, the protests escalated, and the Sunni leader of the Baluch people Molavi Abdolhamid criticized Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s rule. Then Khamenei’s sent an envoy to the region and suddenly all those who were killed as “rioters” were labeled “martyrs.”
Reports about the alleged rape of a 15-year-old Baluch girl in June by a police commander in Chabahar, who has remained immune to prosecution, sparked protests in Zahedan on September 30.
In the past few days, the Islamic Republic has intensified its repression on Kurdish-majority cities and towns in western provinces following reports that parts of some small towns had fallen into the people’s hands. The majority of Iran's 10 million Kurds live in the western parts of the country. It has also launched repeated attacks against Iranian Kurds sheltering in Iraqi Kurdistan. The Islamic Republic’s military crackdown on Kurdish regions can be construed as a new episode of escalating the unrest beyond Iran’s borders.
To check the veracity of the claims by Alirezabeigi, the newspaper contacted member of the Internal Affairs committee Mohammad Hossein Asafari -- a former senior commander of the Revolutionary Guard, IRGC, who said the issue is not within the jurisdiction of the parliament's National Security committee. He added that the recent incidents in Kurdish regions are not the result of the demands by the people, and those who are on streets to protests “are the terrorists and must be dealt with decisively."
There are increasing indications that Iran's so-called neo-cons are attacking the ultraconservative Paydari Party to end its dominance in the administration of President Ebrahim Raisi. The neo-cons led by Majles (parliament) Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf have been trying to convince others in Iran’s political circles that they are prepared to establish "new governance," and bring about "reforms in the system" based on "new plans." These are the buzzwords heralding change from within the system at a time when young men and women in the streets do not seem to be listening to anyone representing the regime.