In A surprising Move A Website In Iran Marks Reza Shah’s Birthday

Bahonar, who served in parliament (Majles) for 28 years as a conservative, acknowledged that there is a gap between the revolutionaries' slogans and realities on the ground. To fill this gap, it is now time for the revolutionaries to confess that they have made too many mistakes. We need to take what Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei called "the second step," and that is what I call "the second republic," Bahonar told Jamaran website in an interview on March 13, republished by other media in Iran.

Bahonar does not hold any office now as ultra-conservatives and neo-conservatives have swamped the parliament and the government, but he is an influential voice.

The second republic is about a roadmap. He said the Islamic Republic has borrowed democracy from the West and it is based on the people's vote. We cannot separate "Islamic" from "Republic." But unfortunately, we have not adopted democracy in full. Iran desperately needs three or four real and powerful political parties.

Bahonar had first raised the issue of constitutional change and establishment of political parties in early February when he called for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s support. He proposed his idea of "the Second Republic" and stressed that Iran needs to facilitate the rotation of elites to reach this goal and it should set up strong political parties.

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The quintessential insider, however argued that political parties should exist and compete but not stand against the regime, adding that "you cannot be part of the system and at the same time act as an opposition to the same system. No regime can allow political parties to clash with the values and principles of the system."

Iran’s clerical system has to over-arching principles: The supremacy of religious laws as interpreted by those clerics who are in power and the un-elected office of the Supreme Leader.

Asked if the presence of a supreme leader is against the party system, he said, "No. The Supreme Leader determines the general policies of the regime," while the parliament and the parties can decide about the day-to-day matters.

However, Bahonar's idea contradicts the fact that Khamenei has weakened the parliament and the government to such an extent that in fact he makes all the decisions and leaves the legislative and the executive branches to be accountable for the fallout.

The most prominent case is the issue of Iran’s foreign policy. Khamenei has stood behind an offensive regional policy, a controversial nuclear program and anti-Western foreign polcy, leaving presidents to struggle with an economy often besieged by sanctions.

Bahonar said when there is no party system, several prominent surgeons and engineers get elected, but we do not need doctors and engineers at the Majles. What we need are individuals who can plan for the country's future and such people are normally trained by political parties.

Asked what the regime’s biggest problem is, Bahonar said: People's participation. "When you have a 48 percent turnout in elections, that means 52 percent have a problem with the way the country's affairs are being managed. They have economic and political problems. I cannot believe we have reached this point in terms of political participation in 40 years."

Meanwhile, he insisted on the need for a change in the constitution to save the Republican nature of the regime and to make things work. "We can amend the constitution and call for two rather than one parliament. Or we can increase its term to 6 years. Only the Supreme Leader needs to agree with this change."

According to the producer, the hardliner guests and the host opposed to the nuclear deal, JCPOA, were ready to start the show from an hour before the scheduled live broadcast. The hosts including an unnamed academic and a member of the parliament Yaser Jebraili, as well as four other likeminded hardliners, all Paydari members like the program's host were suddenly told that plans have changed, and they can go home.

This was taken by many political observers in Iran as a sign that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei who controls the state television no longer tolerates opposition to a deal with the West, whatever the reason.

During the next two days, commentators in Tehran said that in the latest turn of events, the Raisi administration is frowning at ultraconservative Paydari party's maneuvers to influence ongoing events including the attempts to forge a deal with the West to save Iran's ailing economy. Paydari has a strong presence in the conservative-dominated parliament.

Reformist daily Aftab Yazd wrote on Thursday, March 10, that "some of the conservatives [in the Raisi administration] who until yesterday opposed a deal with the United States now want direct talks between Tehran and Washington. This comes while some other conservatives [such as Paydari members] insist on their opposition to any deal with the West."

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Aftab Yazd mentioned the talk show as an example to make a point. The daily characterized the development as an indication of a deepening divide between Paydari and other conservatives loyal to Raisi and Khamenei. The daily pointed out that almost the same thing happened in 2015, when Iran signed the JCPOA, and opponents had to keep silent under pressure from the government.

On Thursday, President Ebrahim Raisi was quoted as having said that that the government still supports the idea of reaching to an agreement in Vienna as the country needs to make sure that sanctions on Iran are lifted.

Meanwhile, Mohammad Mohajeri, a leading conservative figure, and the former editor of hardliner daily Kayhan, said that an agreement between Iran and the United States will put an end to the anti-JCPOA activities of Paydari. He said the reason why its members have recently began criticizing Raisi and his chief negotiator Ali Bagheri-Kani is that they wish to restore their own shaky and errant identity as a political group.

Paydari was in fact former president Mahmud Ahmadinejad's support base a decade ago, but later many of its members distanced themselves from him as he fell out of favor with Khamenei.

Meanwhile, moderate website Rouydad24 opined in an analysis that it was clear from the beginning of Raisi's term that sooner or later his administration would fall out with other conservative groups. However, few thought that a divide could take shape within a matter of just six months.

The website pointed out that support for the Raisi administration hinges on various groups scrambling for their economic stakes in the system. As soon as the Raisi stops giving them their expected share, they begin to criticize the government.

Criticism of the administration is also fashionable in IRGC media outlets. On Thursday, IRGC mouthpiece Javan Newspaper pointed out in a sarcastic frontpage headline that "Prices refuse to obey orders;" a reference to the fact that Raisi never suggests a solution for economic problems and keeps issuing orders for prices to come down or for poverty to disappear. 

As Mohajeri predicted, Paydari could end up as the victim of a new political situation marked by a deal with the United States. Paydari's existence depends on an atmosphere of infighting among various conservative groups, he said. “As soon as a faction’s interests are harmed, it is likely to stand up against other conservatives.”

The idea to eliminate the subsidy emerged after hardliner president Ebrahim Raisi (Raeesi) assumed office in August and could count on backing from conservatives and ultra-conservatives in control of Iran’s parliament.

The subsidy was introduced in April 2018 when former US president Donald Trump signaled his intention to withdraw from the Obama-era nuclear agreement with Iran known as JCPOA, and Iran’s national currency began to nosedive. Prices for imported goods skyrocketed and the government decided to provide cheap dollars to importers of essential goods to keep prices low.

But the measure proved to be controversial as reports emerged of large-scale corruption. Many entities applied to receive the cheap dollars for importing food, animal feed and other essential goods but ended up importing luxury cars or nothing at all. Some have charged that billions of dollars went to waste at a time when US sanctions slashed Iran’s foreign currency revenues, making US dollars crucial for the survival of the economy.

Hardliners picked up the banner of opposition to the subsidy, also as a weapon against centrist president Hassan Rouhani. Once they formed a majority in parliament in 2020 and took the presidency in 2021, they made it a priority to scrap the indirect subsidy.

However, it was not an easy decision to make. Annual inflation has been hovering around 40 percent for more than a year and food prices have risen much faster than that. Consumption of many food items such as meat and fruits have sharply declined as the impoverished middle calls had to slash spending amid declining purchasing power.

Politicians and reportedly security agencies have been concerned that eliminating the subsidies, with no prospect of lower inflation, would lead to political unrest, endangering the entire regime.

The danger could not be underestimated. A hike in gasoline prices in November 2019 led to serious nationwide unrest with authorities deciding to use brute force to suppress protesters. Security forces were ordered to shoot live ammunition, killing hundreds of unarmed people.

Perhaps for this reason the parliament itself did not vote to eliminate the subsidy, rather it agreed to allow the presidential administration to do as it wants. Some Iranian newspapers said the legislature decided to pass on the buck to the government.

But this is not the end of massive subsidies the state provides to consumers. While the 9 billion dollars was a heavy burden on the government’s budget of around $40 billion, Iran provides massive energy subsidies, which are called “hidden subsidies.” These take the form of cheap gasoline, electricity and gas, which are regarded as domestic resources, offered to an underpaid population, much like the old Soviet system, where housing and energy were cheap, but people earned small salaries compared with their counterparts in many other countries.

The energy subsidies were estimated to total around $60 billion annually before the Iranian currency lost its value against the US dollar. The Raisi government would love to eliminate these subsidies too and they have started reducing the gasoline subsidy on an experimental bases in the free trade zone on Kish Island. By raising prices, the government will earn around $5 billion more annually.

Currently a gallon of rationed gasoline sold by the government is around 22 US cents, while unrestricted gasoline is 44 cents. This is multiple times cheaper that the going rates in other Persian Gulf oil producing countries.

Eliminating these subsidies will lift a drag on the economy, but the question is that it might backfire amid high inflation when people have lost so much of their purchasing power.

Their conversation with Sharq newspaper, published on March 5, was recorded before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, obviously, without considering developments sparked by the ensuing international crisis.

Both diplomats are now working in academic and energy fields. Ali-Akbar Salehi was Iran's Foreign Minister (2009-2010) and (2011-2013) and nuclear chief (2013-2021). Abbas Maleki was the head of the Foreign Ministry's think-tank, the International Studies Center and deputy foreign minister (1980-1997).

Sharq's reporter Zeynab Esmaili, asked whether in 30 years Iran will be a developed country or a poor state crippled by water shortages and environmental crises, as current condition point to. Salehi said it is difficult to predict, however, it is a matter of good governance. If the government is not bothered by the needs of the people, one could say for sure that the country has no future.

In the 1979 revolution the people wanted a change in the style of governance and wanted to get rid of despotism, Salehi said. The chaos brought about by the revolution continued with debates about whether political reforms were more important or economic development. Should progress be put before economic justice? Or justice before freedom? Was freedom more important than security?

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Salehi’s emphasis on good governance belies a general perception in Iran that the Islamic Republic has pursued harmful policies for too long and its ability to propel the country toward prosperity is highly questionable.

Salehi emphasized that having large oil reserves is not a substitute for good governance.

“Our roadmap to the future should be based on good governance, knowledge, democracy and attending to the needs of the middle class,” he said.

Maleki also emphasized good governance and the importance of planning. “Plans tell us where we are headed,” he said. So, if we wish to be at a certain point in 2050, we should start working today. But Maleki stressed that government control is better than leaving affairs in the hands of the private sector, claiming that Iran’s response to natural disasters have been more efficient than in the United States where private companies run the infrastructure, such as power and water.

International surveys of economic performance contradict the view that Iran’s government and economic system perform reasonably well.

Maleki also emphasized that developing fossil fuel resources are important for Iran’s near future.

Salehi agreed with Maleki by saying that oil and gas can revive Iran. “We have one percent of the world's landmass but 11 percent of its oil and 17 percent gas resources,” he said. There is no value in these resources unless we turn them into an engine of development. There are gigantic gas and oil reserve under Bandar Lengeh, but the port city has no pipelines. We should turn the reservoirs of Yadavaran and Azadegan oil fields into money. And there are a lot of resources still untouched in the northern part of Iran. Energy is capital but it is not endless. It will end one day. So, Iran should use it rationally.

However, looking at the record, Iran has sold well over one trillion dollars of oil in the past four decades but because of its centrally controlled economy and inefficient governance it has little to show for it compared with regional counties such as Turkey that has no oil or the United Arab Emirates.

Asked why Iranians believe that the government has left them to their own devices or in other words has let them down. Salehi expressed hope that the system can still correct itself, but the young generation is mostly hopeless about the future of the country and they blame policies pursued in the past three decades since Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has ruled the country.

The survey, by Keyou Analytics, found that over 33 percent of 1,300 respondents would emigrate, permanently or temporarily, if able to. In a 2016 survey by the same institute, fewer than 30 percent of Iranians said they wanted to leave the country.

Speaking to Aftab News, Hossein Raghfar, economics professor at Alzahra University, Tehran, said the jump was due to political repression that started during the first six years of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's presidency (2005-11), which Raghfar claimed had been a message to intellectuals and professionals that their political views would not be tolerated.

"It's from this point that we witness extensive emigration from the country,” argued Raghfar. “This included banning opposition media and political parties as well as sacking or forcing university professors and other professionals to leave.”

Raghfar said such people needed to be able to freely protest against economic hardhip and corruption, and that an increased desire to emigrate indicated a closed atmosphere. "No society can survive when only one voice is tolerated… I believe there must be the opportunity for lawful protest … to generate the feeling of belonging and loyalty in the society and towards its values," he said.

Eighty percent of those surveyed by Keyou survey cited economic factors. “Most of these people say they will have higher incomes abroad and a more comfortable life,” saidHamid Hosseini, a member of Iran's Chamber of Commerce.

Emphasizing the emigration of professionals, tradesmen and manufacturers due to economic and political uncertainty, Hosseinisaid the phrase “a comfortable life” was an important window into the thinking of prospective emigrants and showed their apprehension over the country’s future country. “They are tired and concerned,” he noted.

Thousands of teachers in protest rallies across the country last week threatened an “uprising” if the government did not increase their wages. Similar protests have been staged by other groups including civil servants and pensioners in recent months.

Iran's inflation rate stands at around 40 percent, but food prices have been rising much faster than the general inflation rate. Food prices rose by more than 60 percent in the past twelve months, on top of high inflation in the four years since a jump from 9.6 percent in 2017 to 30.2 percent in 2018 and around 40 percent in 2021.

Rents have increased twofold and threefold in some areas both in the capital Tehran and in provinces. Real estate prices have increased sevenfold since 2018 as the Iranian currency has nosedived and the sector has become a haven for protecting capital.

Some analysts have said that a lack of social and political freedoms combined with ever-worsening economic conditions have led to a widespread sense of hopelessness about the future of the country.

Economic hardships are the product of Islamic Republic’s anti-West foreign policy triggering sanctions and a corrupt and inefficient economic system, while political repression blocks all avenues to change and reforms.

Iran’s figure of 33 percent wanting to emigrate was higher, Keyou Analytics found, that a global average of 15 percent and a Middle Eastern average of 24 percent. Twenty-seven percent of South Americans wanted to leave, but only 7 percent of those in south-east Asia.