Israeli Foreign Minister In Washington Shares Concerns Over Iran

The main winner of the election was Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, a populist who has positioned himself as a staunch opponent of both Iran and the United States.

Sadr proclaimed the result a "victory by the people over ... militias". There was elation among his supporters.

"The most important thing in this election is that foreign countries like Iran didn't interfere in the vote," said Yousef Mohammed, an unemployed 21-year-old in Sadr's vast Baghdad stronghold of Sadr City. "We've been celebrating since last night."

Sadr's bloc, already the biggest in the 329-seat parliament, will expand to 73 seats from 54. Its main rivals for years, the Fatah bloc of factions linked to pro-Tehran militia, meanwhile, saw its parliamentary representation collapse -- to just 14 seats from 48.

An unusually unified Sunni Muslim bloc placed second, giving the minority sect perhaps its strongest leverage since the fall of Saddam Hussein. And even upstart groups of reformists who campaigned against the ruling elite managed to defy predictions that they would be outmaneuvered by established parties: a bloc headed by a pharmacologist emerged with ten seats.

Yet there are still signs that Tehran's grip on the country remains formidable. Most notably, former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, a friend of Iran who campaigned as a champion of law and order, also won big surprise gains, emerging in third place with 37 seats.

A Western diplomat said the leader of Iran's Quds Force, Esmail Ghaani, was in Baghdad while the initial results were released, still seeking a way to keep Tehran's allies in power.

"According to our information, Ghaani was attending a meeting with (Shi’ite militia parties) yesterday. They will do whatever they can to try to organize the biggest bloc - although that will also be very difficult with Sadr's power," the Western diplomat said.

Tehran and Baghdad both publicly denied Ghaani was in Iraq, but two Iranian sources contacted by Reuters confirmed it.

At least one pro-Iran militia commander said the armed groups were prepared to resort to violence if necessary to ensure they do not lose their influence after what they view as a fraudulent election.

"We'll use legal frameworks for now. If unsuccessful we'll have to go to the streets and do the same thing that was done to us during protests - burn party buildings" of the Sadrists, he said.

PROXY BATTLEFIELD

Iraq has been a proxy battlefield for influence between the United States and Iran since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, which toppled Saddam and created a path to power for a Shi'ite majority led by figures courted for decades by Tehran.

In 2014, when a third of Iraq was captured by fighters from the Sunni Muslim group Islamic State, Washington and Tehran found themselves uneasily on the same side: both providing assistance to Baghdad to fight the militants.

But when Islamic State was defeated in 2017, it was Iran that came out ahead. Factions linked to pro-Iran militias emerged with control over much of the Iraqi state.

That triggered a backlash in 2019, with hundreds of thousands of mainly young Iraqis taking to the streets to protest against corruption, joblessness and foreign influence. Security forces and the militia gunned down 600 of them. A prime minister close to Iran was forced to quit, paving the way for this week's early election.

Sadr, scion of a family of revered clerics including a father and uncle both murdered under Saddam, has emerged as a rare foe of both Washington and Tehran, first leading a Shi'ite uprising against U.S. occupation and later campaigning against Iranian influence.

While he has always held back from playing a leading role in governing coalitions, his followers have quietly secured control of ministries and industries in governments headed by other Shi'ite factions, most with ties to Tehran.

But most of Iraq's Shi'ite political establishment remains suspicious or even hostile to Sadr, including commanders of the security forces who battled his followers in the past. This may have helped Maliki, who as prime minister led a campaign more than a decade ago that successfully wrested southern cities and Baghdad districts from Sadr's followers.

Hamdi Malik, specialist on Iraq's Shi'ite militias at the Washington Institute, said Maliki had spent a lot of money campaigning and appealed to nostalgia among the armed forces, emphasising his own image as a strong leader.

One official from the Badr party, long one of the main pro-Iran factions, said one of the reasons for the poor showing of the militia's Fatah bloc was that supporters shifted their votes to Maliki, viewing him as a more effective bulwark against Sadr.

"Maliki already showed he can stand up to Sadr," the official said.

Analysis by John Davison and Ahmed Rasheed of Reuters

General Abbas Nilforushan told Tasnim news website affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) that “there is no American today who is not ashamed of the way US forces escaped from Afghanistan after occupying the country for 20 years.”

This was the result of “accumulated strategic mistakes and lack of a good understanding of cultural factors in the region”, the Iranian commander said, but did not elaborate.

Nilforushan emphasized that geopolitical conditions in the region are changing in favor of the Islamic Republic and its allies, which will lead to a complete pullout of the United States from its current bases.

He also claimed that Israel is on the verge of collapse under the pressure of Iran and its allies.

Tehran has called for the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq after its top Middle East operator, Qasem Soleimani was killed by American drones in January 2020 as he arrived in Baghdad. Iran-backed Shiite militias have been harassing the relatively small number of US forces remaining in Iraq by periodic rocket and drone attacks.

Anti-American rhetoric, particularly by IRGC and its top officers has continued and Nilforushan’s interview with Tasnim is the latest example of attempts to present the US as weak and Iran as victorious after events in Afghanistan.

The IRGC general said he believes the Americans have not given up and will try new ways to compensate. One of these is relying on others to project power and try to save Israel from defeat, but they have lost their levers of power.

Asked if the US withdrawal from West Asia is a response to China’s growing power or a result of a Democratic administration unwilling to use military force, Nilforushan said US foreign policy has a systemic nature and is not dependent on change of administrations, although they might employ different tactics. He added that if the United States wants to compete with China, “the real theater is the Middle East where the Chinese are gradually filling the economic vacuum” left by Washington.

“It is not correct to say that the Americans are fleeing the region based on a calculated strategy. They are fleeing because of the pressure of the resistance front and their own mistakes,” he said. Regarding US bases in the region, “It is better that the Americans choose the right option instead of being forced to flee like the Afghanistan model,” Nilforushan said.

The emphasis on the notion that the US is fleeing from the region, seems to be a calculated psychological campaign by the IRGC. In fact, the US still maintains its bases in the Persian Gulf, in Iraq and has a presence in Syria, in addition to close military cooperation with allies in the region.

Nilforushan also commented about Israel, saying that the “Zionist regime is completely encircled by the Islamic Republic”, and is trying to confront Iran by other means, but the IRGC has complete knowledge of what the US and Israel are attempting to do.

Several significant sabotage attacks have taken place against Iran’s nuclear, military and strategic targets since July 2020, widely thought to be the work of Israeli intelligence. Nevertheless, Nilforushan said Israel can pose no threat against Iran as its foundations are shaken and it cannot even confront the Gaza strip.

Tasnim quoted the IRGC general as saying, “For Israel’s annihilation there is no need for a military campaign.”

According to unnamed officials, EU deputy foreign policy chief Enrique Mora is expected to travel to Iran to try to pave the way for Tehran’s return to negotiations that were suspended in June. At the time Iran said its new president needed time to form a government, but after more than three months the Islamic Republic has still not given a firm date for its return.

The United States and Europe have warned that time is running out and they would not wait “forever” for Iran to rejoin the talks. It is not clear if Iran has been making new demands. Iran’s foreign minister last week signaled that his country wants the US to unfreeze its blocked funds, but Germany, one of the negotiating countries, said Tehran cannot make new demands.

"Iran cannot set any further conditions for resuming the talks," a German foreign ministry spokesman said.

Bloomberg said that a spokesman of the European Commission, Peter Stano declined to comment on news of Mora’s possible trip to Tehran.

It also drew attention to tightening energy supplies in the world and said that the fate of the talks is being closely watched by energy markets.

"We will not accept these fabricated results, whatever the cost," the channel Al-Aahd cited Hadi al-Amiri as saying on Tuesday on its Telegram messaging account, after a top Iranian military officials reportedly visited Baghdad on Monday.

Iran-backed parties with links to militia groups accused of killing some of the nearly 600 people who died in mass protests in 2019 took a blow in the election, winning less seats than in the previous vote, in 2018.

Shi'ite Muslim cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's party was the biggest winner in the election held on Sunday, according to initial results.

Initial results showed Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr had won more seats than expected in Iraq’s election Sunday taking 73 seats, a spokesman of the movement said.

In a reflection of Iran’s influence in its neighbor, Iraq’s Shafaq daily Monday quoted a government source that General Esmail Ghaani, commander of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) extra-territorial al-Quds group, had met officials and leaders in Baghdad within 24 hours of polls closing to discuss next steps.

With reporting by Reuters

"A few minutes ago over thirty female and male agents attacked Sepideh Gholian's house, abducted her and took her to an unknown place, ”Mehdi Gholian wrote on Insatgram. “They also confiscated the mobile phones of all other family members."

An hour later Mehdi Gholian wrote in another social-media post that the Prisons Organization was responsible for the arrest.

In a series of tweets in September, Sepideh Gholian (Qolian), who was on parole from Bushehr prison, southern Iran, alleged abuse of female prisoners in the prison. She wrote that she had reported 20 cases to the authorities, including five described in her tweets, but had received no response.

"I knew I would face a godforsaken hell when I was banished to this prison last year," wrote Gholian, who had been sent to Bushehr prison in early March from Evin prison, Tehran. "But I couldn't even imagine the brutality reigning in this prison."

In March 2021, Gholian was taken "in handcuffs and chains," according to labor activist Esmail Bakhshi, from Evin to Bushehr, 1000km from Tehran. Bakhshi said Gholian had been told she was being taken to Ahvaz prison in her native Khuzestan province and only later realized she was in Bushehr, 430km from Ahvaz.

Gholian was sentenced to five years’ jail for 'disrupting public order' and‘assembly and collusion against national security' after arrest in 2018 following her role in publicizing labor protests in Khuzestan. Gholian’s memoir from time in Sepidar prison, Khuzestan, was published by Iran Wirein June 2020. She has gone on hunger strike several times.

Gholian made a confession that was aired by state television (IRIB) in January 2019. In the program she was described as an agent provocateur with ties to Marxist groups abroad who had encouraged a strike at the Haft Tappeh Agro-Industrial Complex in Khuzestan.

Gholian later alleged that Ameneh-Sadat Zabihpour, an IRIB journalist involved in filming the confession, had been involved as an interrogator and had tortured her to her to confess before the camera. Confessions, often full of claims of links to foreign conspiracies, have long played a significant role in Iranian political trials.