Lebanon Plunges Into Darkness Despite Iranian Fuel To Hezbollah

The Central Bank has said that liquidity has increased close to 40,000 trillion rials, or $160 billion based on the open market USD rate, (1 USD=250,000 rials), in August 2021, when ex-president Hassan Rouhani left office.

Liquidy increased by 39% year-on-year, but grew eightfold since August 2013, when Rouhani took office.

Liquidity is the major factor in pushing the inflation rate up, which stood at 45.8% last month in Iran.

According to the International Monetary Fund, inflation in Iran was the highest in the world after Venezuela, Sudan, Surinam and Lebanon during last year and it is expected to get even worse in the current year.

United States sanctions on Iran’s oil exports and the banking sector have dramatically reduced government revenues since 2018, forcing CBI to print money. Iran’s economy had barely begun to recover from international nuclear sanctions (2011-2016), when former US president Donald Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal and reimposed tough sanctions in May 2018.

Iran’s oil exports plunged from a high of around 2.5 million barrels per day in 2017 to as low as 320,000 bpd in 2019-2020, according Kpler data intelligence firm. Illicit oil exports have somewhat increased in 2021 but by their nature of secret deals, there is little cash revenue for Iran.

According to CBI, Iran’s total revenues from crude oil, condensate, petroleum products and gas exports stood at $21 billion during the last year, compared to above $60 billion during pre-sanctions era.

The Central Bank of Iran’s statistics also show that government debt to domestic banks has increased by 35% in August year-on-year and reached 6,550 trillion rials, or $26.2 billion, of which one third is the debt to the Central Bank, indicating a 50% growth year-on-year.

Government debts to the domestic banks increased by 750% during Hassan Rouhani’s presidency.

The Iranian government hasn’t published the total figure for state debts to all sectors, but according to the International Monetary Fund’s estimate, its net debts stood at $227 billion last year. It has more than doubled since 2018.

This amount is also 5 times larger than the current government budget, based on the open market dollar rate, and 36 times more based on the official dollar rate rate.

Each US dollar buys around 280,000 rials in open markets in October, while the official exchange rate is 42,000 rials.

It is not clear how the government could pay off such a huge amount, when the Parliament Research Center has estimated that current year’s budget faces more than 30% deficit for the third consecutive year.

The Central Bank of Iran has also put the government’s foreign debts at $8.84 billion as of August 2021, slightly less than the same month in 2020.

The talks, which aim to bring Washington and Tehran back into compliance with the 2015 nuclear pact aimed at curbing the Iranian enrichment program, were adjourned in June after hardline cleric Ebrahim Raisi was elected Iran's president.

Speaking during a visit to Syria on Saturday, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian reiterated that Iran would "soon" return to the nuclear talks with world powers, which include indirect negotiations with the United States, Iranian state media reported.

"Of course, we will soon return to the Vienna talks and we are keeping our eyes on the issue of verification and receiving the necessary guarantees for the implementation of commitments by the Western parties," state media quoted Amir-Abdollahian as saying.

He did not give details of the verification and monitoring mechanism Tehran was seeking.

Former president Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the nuclear pact in 2018 and reimposed sanctions that crippled Iran's economy, prompting Tehran to breach some of the accord’s nuclear restrictions.

Report by Reuters

Speaking during a visit to Syria, Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian reiterated that Iran would "soon" return to the nuclear talks with world powers, which include indirect negotiations with the United States. A main concern of Iran in any talks to rescue the 2015 nuclear deal would be around ways to verify the lifting of US sanctions, he said on Saturday.

Questions also linger if Iran is demanding unfreezing of some of its assets held in different counties. The foreign minister hinted last week that the US should release $10 billion to show goodwill.

In an interview with France 24 television cited by the official news agency IRNA Saturday, the foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh repeated earlier statements that the new administration of President Ebrahim Raisi (Raeesi) has carried out dual reviews: one, now concluded, deciding to continue the talks, and a second reviewing details of talks to date.

According to IRNA, Khatibzadeh stressed that Iran would return to the talks more quickly than the three months it took the United States to open talks in April after President Joe Biden took office in January having pledged to return to the agreement, from which his predecessor Donald Trump withdrew in 2018. But it has been more than three months since the last round of talks in June.

The spokesman criticized the Biden administration for continuing Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions despite campaign promises. "The most important issue is lifting all sanctions imposed on Iran," Khatibzadeh said.

European signatories of the deal – the JCPOA, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – have expressed concern that Iran is in no hurry to resume talks as it is gaining useful experience in running a nuclear program that has expanded since 2019.

Some pundits in Iran also see no rush. "If Iran was delaying the return to the talks to carry out economic reforms that could lessen the impact of sanctions this would be justified," international affairs analyst Hasan Beheshtipour told the Iranian Labour News Agency (ILNA) Friday.

But Beheshtipour also suggested that unravelling a complex network of sanctions needed negotiations with world powers, and that Iran should not expect all sanctions lifted overnight. Beheshtipour said that the cost of circumventing sanctions − adding $20 to the $5 production cost of each barrel of oil − justified a focus on oil and financial sanctions.

A conservative foreign policy expert, Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh backed Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian's call for the US to ‘unfreeze’ $10 billion of Iran's money as a goodwill gesture.

Falahatpisheh, who headed the parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee 2018-19, said that instead of the fruitless "negotiation for the sake of negotiation" under President Hassan Rouhani, Amir-Abdollahian had suggested "a positive step" towards reviving the JCPOA.

Khatibzadeh has denied that Iran has preconditions for resuming talks, although some pundits have interpreted Amir-Abdollahian's demand for unfreezing Iranian assets as a toughening of Tehran’s approach.

"Currently available information indicate that the aid sent by the Islamic Republic of Iran, which the terrorist Taliban group receives, is used as the group wishes and according to its needs and does not reach to those in real need," an editorial opined Saturday.

The Jomhuri Eslami (Islamic Republic) newspaper suggested that humanitarian assistance be sent directly to regions facing the worst crisis, directly by air to Bamiyan in central Afghanistan for instance, to ensure it reached those in need. It would be possible to supervise the distribution only if Iranian supervisors were there alongside local authorities to prevent misuse, the paper wrote.

In referring to the Taliban as ‘terrorists,’ Jomhuri Eslami differs from Kayhan newspaper, which has in recent months suggested the Taliban has changed over the past 20 years. Both Kayhan and Jomhuri Eslami, despite declining circulations, are influential in Iranian conservative and hardliner political circles.

In June a Kayhan commentary noted that the Taliban was no longer committing the same kind of sectarian crimes against Afghan Shiites and had stopped beheadings. But many in Iran, including some influential senior Shiite clerics, are skeptical of the Taliban and its pledges not to harm Afghanistan's Shiite minority.

The Iranian government and Red Crescent have sent several shipments of humanitarian aid to Kabul by air and land since September 15, when the first shipment of food was flown to the country in the same flight taking Iranian diplomats back to the Afghan capital.

The latest shipment, flown to Afghanistan October 5, included 50 tons of food and medicine, blankets and similar items needed for winter. On October 5, 94 tons of food and sanitary items, and 22 tons of oxygen capsules for use in hospitals, arrived by land.

The UN refugee agency said on Saturday the world should urgently provide promised aid to Afghanistan, warning that a lack of resources is hampering efforts to avert an economic crisis that could push fresh flows of refugees to its neighbors and beyond.

"The humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan remains really dire," Babar Baloch, spokesperson for the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, said in an interview in Islamabad.

"The focus has to be inside Afghanistan to avoid and avert another refugee crisis."

An official of the United Nations’ World Food Programme (WFP) said last month that the agency had asked for $200m in emergency aid to deliver food to Afghanistan's vulnerable people before winter.

According to the WFP, one in three Afghans faces severe hunger and 95 percent of families lack sufficient food. Countries prepared to offer humanitarian aid are concerned the Taliban would might seize the aid supplies and should not decide which regions or groups received it.

External funding for Afghanistan has been suspended since the Western military withdrawal from Kabul and the takeover of the central government by the Taliban on August 15. Wracked by corruption and nepotism, the US-backed authorities had relied on the US and other western donors for 80 percent of their budget.

The Taliban have offered the UN assurances on the safe passage and freedom of movement of humanitarian workers. While still considering whether to recognize the Taliban government, the US and other donors have pledged more than $1 billion in interim aid, a sum far short of the $100 billion a year the US spent on its 20-year war effort in the country.

Issuing a message of condolence, Raisi said the attack was carried out by people whose “anti-human and anti-religion nature is clear to all”. Referring to the possible role of Sunni Muslim extremists linked with the Islamic State group in the bombing, he added that this takes place “with support and plans of America”.

Raisi accused the US of creating and facilitating conditions to support extremists in Afghanistan and has prevented the fight against these groups.

Iran’s hardline president went on to say that his country is willing to help its “Afghan sisters and brother” against “new security plans” by the United States.

Former Afghan officials had frequently accused Tehran of covertly supporting the Taliban before the US withdrawal in August. Iran is also said to have provided safe haven to Al-Qaeda elements in the past 20 years.