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Aramco sidesteps Hormuz as Iran crisis cuts flows to a tenth

Aug 4, 2026, 09:34 GMT+1
 General view of Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in Saudi Arabia.
General view of Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Aramco is routing crude around the Strait of Hormuz via its East-West pipeline as the Iran-related crisis has cut shipping through the strait to a tenth of pre-conflict levels, Chief Executive Amin Nasser said on Tuesday.

"The ongoing geopolitical crisis continues to aggravate the biggest supply shock in history," Nasser said, as the Saudi oil giant reported a 42% jump in second-quarter profit.

"We continue to optimize the flexibility of the East-West pipeline," Nasser said.

The pipeline gives Saudi Arabia an alternative route for crude exports, carrying oil from the kingdom's main producing areas in the east to the Red Sea and away from the Strait of Hormuz.

Nasser said Aramco had "managed risks effectively for some time" and that the Saudi government was also working to address risks to oil shipments.

"The government is tackling this risk and that has never limited our option to go through Bab el-Mandab," he said.

Aramco's East-West pipeline and global inventories have helped ease the supply shock caused by the crisis, lowering the net loss to around 1.8 billion barrels, Nasser said.

Strait losses mount weekly

"Current trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz are at a tenth of pre-conflict levels and the world will continue to lose more than 100 million barrels for each week the strait is closed," Nasser said.

The world has lost more than 2.6 billion barrels of oil destined for a number of critical industries as a result of the crisis, he said.

An average of 11 million barrels per day of liquids supply had been removed, while Asia's crude oil imports fell by around 6 million barrels per day at the peak of the crisis, Nasser said.

"If the strait were open today it would take up to 18 months at an average rate of 2.1 million barrels a day to replenish depleted inventories," he said.

Nasser also warned that pressure was building elsewhere in the global energy system, saying the global refining system was "stretched heavily."

"There is a disconnect between futures and physical markets," Nasser said, pointing to strong refining margins that reflected tightness in refined products.

"If refineries were to suffer any major unplanned or prolonged shutdown the global energy supply system could face more severe pressure," he said.

Nasser said Aramco continued to hope for "a resolution that restores normal shipping and stabilizes the market," but warned that a recovery would not be immediate.

"Normalization will take time," he said.

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Conflicting accounts cloud Iran-US diplomatic push

Aug 4, 2026, 02:15 GMT+1
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Fishing boats sit grounded at low tide along the coast in the southeastern Iranian port of Konarak, July 20, 2026

Prospects for renewed US-Iran diplomacy remained uncertain on Monday as Washington and Tehran offered sharply different accounts of whether negotiations had already begun.

President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House that Iran had requested talks with the backing of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.

He said negotiations would proceed in two phases, beginning with reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which he said would be "completely open" by Tuesday, before turning to Iran's nuclear program.

Trump described the talks as Tehran's "last chance" to reach an agreement, saying he wanted to give Iran "every last chance before decapitation."

But Tehran rejected the announcement outright, with Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei saying there were no talks and no plans to receive a US delegation or send Iranian representatives to negotiations in the coming days.

Baghaei said Iran's only confirmed discussions were with Oman over a temporary shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. Reaching an understanding with Muscat over the proposed corridor would not by itself amount to reopening the strait, he added.

‘Deal or surrender’

Later Monday, Trump took to Truth Social to accuse Iran's leadership of duplicity but said more talks were scheduled in the "immediate future."

He added that the US naval blockade would remain in place until "a deal or total surrender is accomplished."

A senior Iranian source also told Reuters that no negotiations were planned and that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who was visiting Iraq, would be unavailable until at least the end of the week.

CBS News separately cited US officials as saying no new formal negotiations had been scheduled despite Trump's public comments.

The officials said existing indirect contacts were continuing through intermediaries, involving US envoy Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner and other members of the American negotiating team on one side and Iranian representatives on the other.

The conflicting accounts left unclear whether Trump was referring to formal negotiations, indirect exchanges through mediators or efforts to arrange future talks.

Mediators keep channels open

Diplomatic activity nevertheless intensified across the region on Monday.

Araghchi held separate calls with his Omani, Saudi, Pakistani and Iraqi counterparts and also spoke with Pakistan's army chief, Asim Munir, about regional developments and diplomatic efforts.

Pakistan invited Araghchi to visit Islamabad, while reports said Tehran's chief negotiators could be asked to take part in discussions there.

Islamabad and Doha have both been mentioned as possible venues for indirect talks, though no date or location has been confirmed.

Switzerland, which represents US interests in Iran, said it remained in contact with both sides and was prepared to assist if requested. An Iraqi politician also claimed Baghdad was carrying messages between Tehran and Washington.

Trump identified Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar as supporters of the talks, though he did not explain whether they were directly mediating or had encouraged Iran to engage.

Military pressure remains

The diplomatic push is unfolding under continuing US military and economic pressure.

Trump said the US Navy had complete control over the Strait of Hormuz and that "nothing would reach Iran" unless Washington permitted it. US Central Command said Monday it had redirected 44 commercial vessels, disabled two vessels and boarded two others while enforcing the blockade.

The strait remains the most immediate point of contention. Washington wants unrestricted passage through the waterway, while Tehran insists it retains authority over shipping and says US military action and the blockade must end before conditions can significantly change.

Oil prices fell sharply after Trump suspended the planned strikes, raising expectations of a possible agreement. Brent crude dropped nearly 7% on Monday.

Maritime risks nevertheless persisted. The UK Maritime Trade Operations said a vessel reported an explosion in the water nearby off Oman, although the ship and crew were safe.

Whether Trump's timetable reflects active negotiations, indirect contacts or diplomatic optimism remains unclear. Tehran has so far confirmed neither broader talks with Washington nor any agreement.

Iran managing the inflation statistic, not the inflation

Aug 3, 2026, 21:00 GMT+1
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Mohamad Machine-Chian
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A month-long banking outage helped Iran’s Central Bank claim inflation had nearly halved, even as prices stood 84 percent higher than a year earlier and food costs continued to rise sharply.

In late July, the governor of Iran's central bank, Abdolnaser Hemmati, announced a victory: monthly inflation, he said, had been nearly halved in a single month — from 7.4 percent in the month ending June 21 to 3.6 percent in the month ending July 22 — thanks to “measures and tools at the bank’s disposal.” He did not name a single tool.

Numbers like these need translation. Monthly inflation is a standard statistic everywhere, but in Iran it is the number people live by: when prices move this fast, the month-to-month change is what a household actually feels at the store.

By the central bank’s own report, prices are now about 84 percent higher than a year ago. Even the “victory” month is nothing to celebrate: 3.6 percent, repeated for 12 months, compounds to an annual rate above 50 percent.

What the announcement omitted is that for almost exactly that statistical month, Iranians could not use their banks.

On June 13, electronic services failed at four major state banks. The state-linked company that runs their infrastructure claimed a cyberattack and said it had taken backup systems offline as a precaution, while official promises of a fix kept slipping.

On June 23, a second wave hit eight banks. Card readers went dead and banking apps would not load in a country where everyday life runs on debit cards, leaving millions of people unable to reach their own money for weeks.

Bank Melli, one of Iran’s largest banks, later waived late-payment penalties for a precisely defined window: June 13 to July 14. That amounted to a full month of disruption, by the bank’s own admission.

The same month piled on more. The state semi-shut the country for about a week in early July for Ali Khamenei’s funeral ceremonies. In the second week of July, fighting with the United States resumed and the naval blockade of Iran’s ports returned.

Extreme heat and a failing power grid then closed offices and banks in several provinces in the final week. In a month like that, a great many purchases simply never happened — not because prices had calmed, but because buying was impossible. A purchase that cannot happen puts no pressure on prices.

The central bank’s own report records the tell. Food inflation — groceries, the most card-dependent of all purchases — collapsed from 8.7 percent to 1.8 percent.

The dials the governor did not mention moved the other way: prices versus a year earlier accelerated, and the 12-month average rose from 57.7 to 61.4 percent.

Street prices told the same story. The announced consumer price of a carton of eggs rose about 20 percent between late May and mid-July, roughly double the official inflation rate for the same stretch.

Halving an inflation rate ordinarily requires tight money sustained over a long period. In Iran’s case, no tightening of any kind occurred: deposit rates did not move until late July, liquidity kept growing rapidly, and there was no sign of fiscal restraint.

A central bank that possessed a painless one-month cure would also need to explain why it kept that cure in the drawer while annual inflation has averaged above 40 percent over the past five years.

There is an old warning in economics, associated with the British economist Charles Goodhart, that when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. Iran’s monthly inflation rate has now completed that journey.

In July, it stopped measuring price pressure in the Iranian economy and began measuring something else: the downtime of the country’s payment system.

A government can manage inflation, or it can manage the inflation statistic. Only one of these shows up at the grocery store.

Economic crisis drives Iranians to sell hair, rent laptops

Aug 3, 2026, 11:27 GMT+1
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Iranian households are increasingly selling personal belongings ranging from natural hair to empty perfume bottles and renting out or borrowing basic work tools such as laptops, reflecting deepening economic hardship, the semi-official ILNA news agency reported on Sunday.

The report described the trend as the emergence of a "survival economy," in which even the smallest household possessions have become tradable assets as families struggle with soaring inflation and shrinking purchasing power.

Online classified advertisements, according to ILNA, increasingly feature offers to sell used work shoes and clothing, empty perfume bottles and natural hair for extensions, alongside listings advertising the rental of property deeds, salary slips and other financial guarantees.

From laptops to perfume bottles

The agency also highlighted growing demand for laptop rentals, with users seeking temporary access to devices for basic tasks such as typing documents, using Microsoft Office software or attending online classes.

"What may initially appear strange or even humorous actually reflects declining purchasing power, changing consumption patterns and households' efforts to generate cash," ILNA wrote.

The shift, The report said, illustrates how ownership is increasingly giving way to renting, while everyday items are being used until the very end of their economic value.

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The findings come as inflation continues to weigh on Iranian households. According to the Statistical Center of Iran, annual inflation reached 66% in the Iranian month ending in late July, while year-on-year inflation stood at 87.9%.

A 'survival economy'

The growing number of advertisements, the report said, reflects a broader transformation in household finances, where assets once considered worthless or purely personal are increasingly being converted into immediate sources of income.

The agency said many sellers now bundle together low-value household items to improve their chances of making a sale, while advertisements offering natural hair have also become more common, with prices ranging from negotiable sums to several million rials depending on length, color and quality.

The report follows other recent signs of mounting financial pressure, including the spread of installment payments for healthcare and pharmaceuticals, as many Iranian families struggle to cover everyday expenses.

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The expansion of the market for second-hand goods, rentals and personal assets, ILNA said, reflects a growing effort by households to generate cash in an economy where almost anything can become a source of income.

Iran hangs two more political prisoners as execution wave widens

Aug 3, 2026, 08:34 GMT+1
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Iran hanged two political prisoners early Monday after convicting them of alleged “spying and intelligence cooperation with Israel,” the judiciary said, extending a surge in executions carried out under broadly framed national-security charges.

Omid Behzad and Pouria Safvat, the judiciary's news outlet said, were executed on Monday, after Iran's Supreme Court upheld their death sentences.

According to Mizan, the two men transmitted “coordinates, images and information about Iranian military and security sites to officers from Israel's Mossad intelligence agency and affiliated communication channels” during the 12-day and 40-day wars in 2025 and 2026.

The pair, the report said, were identified and arrested by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps' intelligence organization but did not specify when, where or how they were detained.

  • Iran executes 20-year-old protester as fears grow for other detainees

    Iran executes 20-year-old protester as fears grow for other detainees

The judiciary outlet also said Behzad maintained direct contact with the administrator of a Telegram channel linked to Israel and supported the US and Israeli military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

Mizan cited Behzad's confessions as evidence, although rights groups have for years documented that Iranian authorities have extracted confessions under coercion, torture or harsh detention conditions.

Iranian authorities use broadly worded charges such as espionage, acting against national security, armed rebellion, enmity against God and corruption on earth to crush dissent and remove political opponents.

Human rights organizations say these labels are routinely applied to protesters, dissidents and political prisoners to portray them as security threats and provide a legal pretext for execution.

Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch and UN experts have documented repeated cases in which such convictions were issued by revolutionary courts after grossly unfair or highly expedited proceedings, with defendants denied meaningful access to lawyers and verdicts based on torture-tainted forced confessions.

Charges against Safvat

Safvat, Mizan said, photographed Iranian air defense systems from rooftops during the 12-day war and sent the images through communication channels linked to Israel.

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The outlet said some of the locations he photographed were later bombed. Without providing evidence, it also alleged Safvat had direct contact with Mossad in some instances and sent messages to Iran International.

The court, according to Mizan, sentenced both men to death based on what it described as “explicit confessions, technical evidence, recovered messages and other evidence.” The sentences were upheld by the Supreme Court before being carried out on Monday.

Wider crackdown

Iran has intensified arrests, prosecutions and executions in recent months, with authorities sentencing or executing dozens of people on charges including espionage, involvement in protests and membership of the exiled opposition group Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK).

  • Iran executes two protesters amid heavy security in Isfahan

    Iran executes two protesters amid heavy security in Isfahan

Human rights groups and activists say the authorities have expanded the crackdown following recent military confrontations, arguing that the campaign is intended to deter renewed public unrest over Iran's deepening economic and political crises.

Iran's latest wave of public hangings of protesters amounts to "killings" and "murders" that form part of a continuing crime against humanity, former United Nations prosecutor Professor Payam Akhavan told Iran International's Eye for Iran.

“What we actually have in Iran are arbitrary executions. These are killings. They are murders,” Akhavan said. "Specifically, the case can be made that this is a crime of extermination, given the large scale of the killings."

Diplomatic window reopens as shadow of Iran war lingers

Aug 2, 2026, 21:37 GMT+1
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Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz near the beach of Bandar Abbas, Iran, June 21, 2026.

Diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz accelerated on Sunday after US President Donald Trump called off a planned attack on Iran, with Tehran saying negotiations with Oman were nearing completion and mediators outlining a proposal to revive US-Iran talks.

“We must strive to compel the enemy to honor what it signed,” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on X Sunday, referring to the Iran-US memorandum of understanding signed in June. “This memorandum enhances the security of our country, the region and our allies.”

Trump said on Saturday that he had canceled the attack after Iran and other Middle Eastern countries requested a pause, saying the sides had agreed on the broad “perimeters” of a deal that would include reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending Iran’s nuclear threat.

The Associated Press, citing a regional official involved in mediation efforts, reported that a proposal announced by Trump over the weekend calls for the US and Iran to resume negotiations and work through the remaining obstacles to a deal.

The proposal would reopen Hormuz and halt attacks across the region, including attacks by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq on Persian Gulf countries and Jordan, the official said. In exchange, Washington would end its naval blockade and allow Tehran to export oil under the tentative ceasefire arrangement.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said negotiations with Oman over the strait were nearing completion.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said the talks were bilateral and aimed at agreeing a mechanism for the strait, adding that they did not concern any other party.

“The understanding with Oman over a new transit route has nothing to do with whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open or closed,” Baghaei said. “The strait was closed because the US reneged on its commitments and imposed a blockade.”

Push for de-escalation

Regional governments continued diplomatic outreach on Sunday. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman urged dialogue and de-escalation in his call with Trump, while the kings of Jordan and Bahrain discussed efforts to restore security and stability in the region.

Qatar’s prime minister and foreign minister also urged implementation of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, including guarantees for freedom of navigation through Hormuz, during separate calls with the Saudi and Jordanian foreign ministers.

Military preparations nevertheless continued. Israel’s Channel 12 reported, citing senior US officials, that CENTCOM had prepared strikes against Iranian energy and infrastructure targets, with Israel expected to participate.

Qatar asked Trump for another 24 hours for negotiations, while Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman warned that military action could trigger wider regional escalation and damage oil facilities in Persian Gulf states, the report said.

Channel 12 said negotiators were close to a proposed Hormuz arrangement that included renewing the ceasefire, opening the strait toll-free for 60 days, establishing new shipping routes and resuming US-Iran negotiations based on the memorandum of understanding.

War clouds linger

But not all Persian Gulf states backed the diplomatic push. The United Arab Emirates had pressed Trump to take more decisive action against Iran, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing senior officials from Persian Gulf states familiar with the discussions.

The officials suggested the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps would not compromise until the US escalated, took control of Hormuz and perhaps considered ground operations.

An Iranian diplomat told the newspaper that the IRGC was considering preemptive strikes even if the US did not attack, should diplomacy fail.

The Israeli military remained on high alert despite Trump's decision, assessing that Tehran could still spring surprises, Channel 12 reported.

Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen, who sits on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's security cabinet, said there was close security and intelligence coordination between Israel and the United States on developments across the region.

"With or without an agreement, and regardless of any external commitments, if Iran attempts to renew its nuclear program or advance its ballistic missile industries, we will be there. We will take action, and we will strike," Cohen added.

Iran’s acting defense minister said Tehran treated every threat from its adversaries as credible and used it to strengthen military readiness and deterrence.