Israel says missiles launched from Iran, air defenses activated

According to senior executives at Chinese state-owned gas firms briefed by government officials, Beijing had urged Iranian counterparts not to target oil and liquefied natural gas tankers transiting the narrow waterway and to refrain from striking key export hubs such as Qatar.

China buys the vast majority of Iran’s oil, providing Tehran with a crucial economic lifeline. But the world’s largest energy importer depends more broadly on Persian Gulf supplies, with both crude and LNG cargoes passing through Hormuz.

Qatar accounts for roughly a fifth of global LNG supply and provides about 30% of China’s LNG imports, the executives said. The country is the world’s second-largest LNG producer after the United States.

Asian buyers take more than 80% of Qatar’s LNG shipments, according to data from analytics firm Kpler.

Reuters reported on Tuesday that India began rationing natural gas as countries across Asia moved to secure alternative supplies after conflict in the Middle East disrupted shipping and halted Qatari output.

Officials and executives in Japan, Taiwan, Bangladesh and Pakistan said they did not expect an immediate impact because some cargoes due this month had already arrived, but would diversify imports and buy spot LNG if the war drags on.

The Turkish government also plans to implement a fuel scheme to reduce the impact of rising global oil prices on inflation, according to Reuters on Tuesday.

Tanker traffic through the strait has largely stalled since US and Israeli strikes over the weekend and Iran’s subsequent missile attacks across the region.

According to US Central Command, the Strait of Hormuz is not closed despite statements by Iranian officials.

On Monday, Qatar halted production at Ras Laffan, the world’s largest LNG export facility, after an Iranian drone attack, marking the first full shutdown in nearly three decades of operations.

Chinese energy importers have been told Beijing is seeking to ensure vessels continue moving through Hormuz, the executives told Bloomberg.

Publicly, China has made limited comment. Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi on Monday that while Beijing supports efforts to safeguard national security, Tehran should heed the “reasonable concerns” of its neighbors, according to a Chinese Foreign Ministry statement.

At a regular briefing, a ministry spokesperson said China was “deeply concerned” about the widening conflict.

Analysts say the immediate economic impact on China may be manageable, though higher oil prices could add to inflationary pressures.

The Israeli military said on Tuesday it struck Iran’s leadership compound in central Tehran overnight, targeting “the regime’s most central and significant headquarters.”

It added that the site had been used by Iran’s leadership, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and contained infrastructure involved in directing and financing regional armed groups.

The strike included the Presidential Office and the building of the Supreme National Security Council. It also targeted a site used by top officials for security decision-making, a training institution for military officers and other key infrastructure, the Israeli military said, adding that the compound spans several streets in central Tehran and is considered one of the most heavily secured sites in Iran.

The IDF said the strike followed prolonged intelligence collection and was aimed at degrading Iran’s command and control systems.

“I think that is a big miscalculation on the part of Iran,” Petraeus told 24 with Fardad Farahzad Show, arguing that striking Arab countries that had sought to avoid direct involvement could push them to contribute more directly to regional defense efforts.

US and Israeli forces, Petraeus said, have already “dramatically degraded” Iran’s retaliatory capabilities, though he cautioned it was too early to determine whether the decline in attacks over the past 12 to 24 hours signaled a lasting shift.

“I think it's premature at this point to judge whether or not that will degrade further or if the volume can pick back up,” he said.

Coalition dynamics shift

Petraeus said Tehran’s decision to target regional states – including those that did not allow their bases to be used for operations – may alter the strategic calculus across the Persian Gulf.

Many countries in the region, he said, are already contributing to an integrated air and missile defense network that includes US-supplied Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense systems, along with naval assets and aircraft capable of intercepting incoming projectiles.

While he stopped short of predicting expanded offensive participation, Petraeus said additional Western powers could also align more closely with the effort. “I’m confident they are all taking part in the defensive efforts that are ongoing,” he said.

Uncertain path to political change

Addressing whether military pressure could lead to political transformation inside Iran, Petraeus said any lasting shift would depend primarily on internal fractures within the security forces and leadership.

“The sad reality in such cases often is that the most guys with the most guns and the most willing to be brutal to the people prevail,” he said, cautioning against assumptions that external air campaigns alone can bring about regime collapse.

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  Iranians face war with fear, joy and hope

Petraeus described exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi as a symbolic presence who has outlined a transition toward an elected government rather than dismantling all existing institutions.

Ultimately, he said, momentum would hinge on whether influential insiders conclude that continued confrontation has become unsustainable, shaping not only Iran’s future but the broader balance of power across the Middle East.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said on Tuesday that the latest satellite imagery shows some recent damage to entrance buildings at Iran’s underground Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant.

The agency said it does not expect any radiological consequences and has detected no additional impact at the facility itself, which was severely damaged during conflict in June.

On Monday, the UN nuclear watchdog said it had no indication that Iran’s nuclear facilities were damaged in recent military attacks. “Regarding the status of the nuclear installations in Iran, up to now, we have no indication that any of the nuclear installations … have been damaged or hit,” IAEA chief Rafael Grossi told an emergency meeting of the Board of Governors.

The Natanz site is Iran’s main uranium enrichment facility and has long been central to international concerns over Tehran’s nuclear program.

Despite the historic symbolism of his death, the system Khamenei built was designed to withstand precisely this kind of shock.

Power in Iran was never concentrated solely in one man, but embedded across military, political and security institutions capable of functioning even in the absence of a supreme leader.

“The Islamic Republic is not a one-bullet state,” Behnam Ben Taleblu told Iran International, arguing that one of Khamenei’s lasting achievements was institutionalizing authority across the regime.

Iran’s defense and repression capabilities remain dispersed across the country’s provinces, allowing missile launches, drone operations and internal security functions to continue despite leadership losses.

The Islamic Republic has continued firing missiles and drones despite the elimination of senior figures, showing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps can sustain operations through a decentralized chain of command.

Decentralized power

Behind the scenes, however, the question of succession is fast becoming the Islamic Republic’s central uncertainty.

Jason Brodsky of United Against Nuclear Iran said power has become “diffuse,” now resting formally with a three-person interim leadership council while multiple political and clerical figures compete for influence.

“There used to be a centralized address for the final decision-making. Now there’s a wider array of people. So it’s flatter," said Brodsky.

Potential candidates, he said, include members of the interim leadership structure such as Alireza Arafi and Chief Justice Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, as well as other clerical figures outside the council.

Brodsky pointed to Hassan Khomeini – grandson of the Islamic Republic’s founder – alongside conservative clerics including Mohammad Mahdi Mirbagheri, Mohsen Araki and Mohsen Qomi as individuals to watch.

At the same time, senior political figures such as Ali Larijani and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf remain influential actors shaping decision-making during the transition.

“With Khamenei and his family gone, that really leaves the succession race wide open,” Brodsky said.

Analysts say Tehran may delay formally appointing a new supreme leader during wartime, as any successor would immediately become a high-value military target.

On Tuesday, a member of Iran’s Assembly of Experts said choosing a new supreme leader would not take long, adding the body would make its decision based on religious criteria and its own judgment rather than individual preferences or political factions. Ali Moalemi added the body would select a person similar to Khamenei.

Attacking neighbors: Why?

Externally, Iran appears determined to widen the confrontation rather than retreat. Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute said Islamic Republic leaders are likely to regionalize the conflict in an effort to increase pressure on Washington and its partners.

“They will stay in this fight as long as they can,” Vatanka said, adding that Tehran is attempting to “put pressure on Trump” by expanding instability beyond its borders.

Events across the Persian Gulf suggest that escalation is already underway. Iranian officials have threatened to target shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while an oil tanker was reportedly struck and forced to halt transit.

US-allied Persian Gulf states are bearing the brunt of retaliatory strikes.

In the United Arab Emirates, missiles and falling debris struck civilian areas in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, damaging luxury hotels, high-rise apartment towers and airport infrastructure – locations never designed to withstand ballistic missile or drone attacks.

Similar attacks and interceptions were reported in Bahrain and near Doha, as Iran targeted countries hosting US military forces, signaling a shift from purely military targets to economic and civilian centers across the Persian Gulf.

Attacks on regional energy infrastructure forced shutdowns at major Saudi and regional oil and gas facilities, sending global oil prices sharply higher.

US Central Command confirmed four American service members were killed following Iranian attacks in the region, while US forces struck Iranian naval and missile assets.

Speaking at the White House on Monday, US President Donald Trump signaled Washington is preparing for a longer campaign than initially anticipated.

“From the beginning, we projected four to five weeks, but we have capability to go far longer than that, we’ll do it,” Trump said, dismissing suggestions the United States might seek a quick exit.

“I don’t get bored.”

He framed the operation as a decisive effort to eliminate what he called “the intolerable threats posed by this sick and sinister regime,” insisting the United States would continue operations “whatever it takes.”

If Tehran had hoped escalation would shorten the war, early signals from Washington, Brodsky said, suggest the opposite may be unfolding.

Brodsky said much of Iran’s response is continuing through pre-planned wartime contingencies.

“A lot of the decision-making right now is essentially on autopilot,” he said, adding that the Revolutionary Guards’ decentralized structure allows operations to continue even amid leadership losses.

Even so, analysts say the balance of military power remains heavily tilted against Tehran, raising questions about how long the Islamic Republic can sustain simultaneous external confrontation and internal strain.

While scenes of celebration followed news of Khamenei’s death inside Iran, many Iranians recognize that removing one leader does not automatically dismantle a system built over more than four decades on repression.

"The bravery of the Iranian people and the sacrifice of the Iranian people. Too much blood has been spilled for historical opportunities to be missed. And I think no one knows that better than the Iranian people," said Taleblu.

“The question now is whether there is a plan for the day after,” said Vatanka.