Iran International
Media reports about possible radioactive contamination of Aras River in Iran’s northwestern borders by Armenia’s nuclear power plant has led to widespread concerns.
However, Iran's Nuclear Safety Center has refuted the reports. In a statement on Tuesday, the center which is an affiliate of Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) said the river Aras is monitored at least once a year for radioactive pollution and that the last survey in March this year did not indicate any radioactive pollution as claimed by Payam-e Ma newspaper on Monday.
Quoting a paper published earlier by the Border Studies Research Journal of the Iranian police, Payam-e Ma on Monday suggested that the extremely high occurrence of various types of cancers and liver diseases in Ardabil Province bordering the Republic of Azerbaijan, could be attributed to radioactive pollution of the Aras River emanating from Armenia’s nuclear power plant situated in Metsamor hundreds of kilometers to the west.
Payam-e Ma’s article followed a warning on June 12 by Mahmoud Abbaszadeh-Meshkini, a member of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee who claimed that effluent from the power plant which was polluting the river could be the cause of the high occurrence of cancer in Iran’s Ardabil.
However, the cause of the high rate of cancer in the area is hard to establish. It is not clear whether the phenomenon is related to the environment or has other underlying reasons. But concerns linger on as many do not trust the Iranian government on the issue of radioactive contamination.
A deputy health minister, Dr. Reza Malekzadeh, told the media in October 2020 that a longitudinal study carried out over a period of 20 years about the occurrence of stomach cancer in Ardabil Province has shown a rate of 50 per 100,000 of the province’s population. This is the highest rate in the country.
However, the Nuclear Safety Center’s statement said the Armenian power plant is too far from the Aras for its effluent to reach the river and pollute it as claimed.
The Aras River which rises in Turkey forms part of Iran's border with its northwestern neighbors, Armenia and Azerbaijan, before flowing into the Kura River in Azerbaijan.
“The Aras River is being continually monitored for radioactivity and other required substances,” the statement said and added that the center will establish an online water monitoring station in the said area very soon to carry out tests.
In the past ten years, Iranian officials have repeatedly denied radioactive pollution of the Aras River by the Armenian nuclear plant.
Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant which is the only nuclear power plant in the South Caucasus was built in the 1970s. The two units of the plant provide a total of 815 MW of electricity and supplied approximately 40 percent of Armenia’s electricity in 2015.
The plant has been a source of environmental concern since the Spitak Earthquake in 1988 which led to its closure until 1995. The plant has been classified by the EU as the oldest and least reliable of all the 66 reactors built by the former Soviet Union.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), however, said in 2011 that the plant posed an “acceptable” level of risk to the environment and could “in principle” operate beyond its design life span.
The media have also warned that heavy metals in the effluent of other industries in Armenia, Turkey and Iran have been polluting the river for many years. Most of the pollution, however, is apparently caused by Armenian copper mines and plants in the area.
Firuz Ghasemzadeh, spokesman of the Iranian Water Industry, told the Iranian Labour News Agency (ILNA) on May 10 that the Iranian ministry of energy and both Iran’s and Armenia’s departments of environment had been investigating the pollution caused by the Armenian mines.
According to Ghasemzadeh, sources of pollution were eliminated by installation of water treatment facilities, but occasional pollution was still possible. He also stressed that Armenia has given assurances that it would control the sources of pollution.
The Financial Times reports that even if it is a negotiating tactic, the more advanced the program becomes, the more Tehran is expected to demand in return for reversing its gains.
That is why more media reports indicate a limited nuclear deal in the offing, with Iran to cap uranium enrichment at 60 percent while the United States gives some sanctions relief to Iran.
Henry Rome of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy told the newspaper: “As they [Iran] accumulate more and more chips on the nuclear side, yes they could give some away, but it also moves them closer to what has arguably been the long-term goal — to be recognized as a nuclear threshold state.”
As Iran gets closer to its goals, pushing evermore the boundaries of agreed terms, the chances of a reverse look increasingly unlikely. “Once you’re there, it might be tough to argue to give that up,” Rome added.
Time is ticking with October approaching, the time when the nuclear deal, or JCPOA clauses that impose sanctions on Iran’s ballistic missile program expire. While the likes of the E3 (UK, France, Germany) and US scramble to makes things right, Iran shows no signs of abating.
The regime continues to sell weapons to Russia even after months of denial. New revelations reported by Israel’s ALMA research center show that it is a complex operation with no end in sight.
The Biden administration is trying its best to calm the situation, not least with the chances of a Trump return in 2024 -- or yet still, another Iran hawk - don’t look as unrealistic as many would hope.
Whether that be another destabilizing factor or a deterrent to Iran is yet to be seen as the regime becomes ever more emboldened in the wake of diplomatic victories such as its recent detente with Saudi Arabia.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Hossein Mousavian, a former senior Iranian official now at Princeton University, warns that if there is no deal there would be an escalation with Iran enriching at 90 percent, the west triggering snapback UN sanctions and Tehran suspending its membership of the Treaty of Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
He somehow believes Iran is ready to revive the JCPOA, or reach a deal in which Tehran reduces tensions and the US turns a blind eye to oil and petrochemical exports.
Though hard to believe given the extent of sanctions, Mousavian claims Iran expected to be set to benefit from a Russian war with Ukraine as oil and gas supplies became scarce. Hoping that would help secure a better deal, that, he says, led Iran to reject draft proposals last August.
What few analysts seem to be sufficiently aware of is Iran's worsening economic crisis, with inflation reaching 70 percent and the currency, rial, losing half its value in the past year. While Iran might be trying to use its nuclear escalation option, the United States has its foot on the regime's financial lifeline.
Moving forward, Mousavian seems to think as long as Khamenei is in power, the regime will not seek to develop a weapon. Its actions say otherwise. “If there’s a Trump school of thought, then everything would be terminated; plan A, plan B, the JCPOA, [everything] but coercion or war,” Mousavian says. “The response would be: go for nuclear to reach a deal.”
If the ageing supreme leader, now 84, were to be no more, “nobody knows what could happen after”, he said.
“The Albanian State Police have assured us that all actions were conducted in accordance with applicable laws, including with regard to the protection of the rights and freedoms of all persons in Albania,” read a statement issued on Tuesday.
Having found itself in quite a precarious predicament after dozens of Iranian dissidents seeking safe haven in Albania were reportedly injured Tuesday and one allegedly died in the raid, the State Department said it has been "assured" the Albanian government did not violate any human rights.
The State Department, which usually does not keep silent about such actions, and especially not against a group known to be active against the Islamic Republic, not only did not condemn the unexpected raid, but also distanced itself from the dissident group, raising concerns about the group’s actions against its own members.
"The State Department continues to have serious concerns about the MEK as an organization, including allegations of abuse committed against its own members,” noted the statement.
The State Department, however, pointed to the Albanian police accusations that the inhabitants of the camp were involved in cyberattacks against the Albanian government, adding, “We support the Government of Albania’s right to investigate any potential illegal activities within its territory."
Emphasizing that Washington does not view the MEK as “a viable democratic opposition movement that is representative of the Iranian people,” the State Department said, “The US government does not provide support or training to the MEK, does not contribute funding to the organization, and does not maintain substantive contact beyond issues related to the MEK’s resettlement, which was completed in 2016.”
Earlier on Tuesday, MEK said about a thousand Albanian police officers raided the group's exile center, Camp Ashraf, using tear gas and pepper spray. The group said that one of their members, identified as Ali Mostashari, was killed and more than a hundred others injured.
Despite initial denials, Albanian Interior Minister Bledi Cuci and the head of the national police, Muhamet Rrumbullaku, said both police officers and Iranian dissidents were injured during the raid at the Ashraf-3 camp near Manze, a small hill-town 30 kilometers (about 20 miles) west of Albania’s capital. However, the authorities disputed that the raid caused the man’s death.
Alleging that the attack was instigated by the Iranian regime, the MEK claimed that the actions by the Albanian police are “reminiscent of the criminal attacks by forces of Nouri al-Maliki (former prime minister of Iraq) on the original Camp Ashraf in Iraq between 2009 and 2015.”
Camp Ashraf 3 compound in Durres, Albania, is MEK's first home outside the Middle East established a few years after the 2013 massacre in the original Camp in Iraq in which 52 members died and seven went missing, leading to the relocation of the group.
In September 2022, Albania severed its relations with the Islamic Republic and expelled all Iranian diplomats and embassy staff following an investigation into a large-scale cyberattack that targeted the country’s infrastructure in July. The attack happened around the time of a conference held by the MEK.
The Tuesday attack against the de facto headquarters of the MEK took place about a month after the MEK-affiliated hacktivist group Uprising till Overthrow breached into 120 servers of the Iranian presidential office, getting access to internal communications, meetings minutes, and leaking troves of confidential data.