Activist Groups Slam Appointment Of Iran As Chair Of UNHRC Social Forum

As Brett McGurk, President Biden’s senior Middle East adviser, took a low-profile trip to Oman earlier this month for talks on possible diplomatic outreach to Iran, it seems this is more than ‘talks’. 

Neither the US nor Oman made the visit public, suggesting only something as serious as Iran could have called for such secrecy. Though the Biden administration has spoken of their desire to quash Iran’s nuclear program, its softly softly approach has called into question the lengths it will go to. 

Oman has recently been pitched as a broker between Iran and Saudi in the lead-up to the détente in March and stands a good chance of holding Iran’s hand as it deals with its biggest enemy. 

Behind the scenes, Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said on Tuesday that work with Iran on its nuclear enrichment is “a work in progress”. At a press conference in New York, he said the latest report of his visit in March will be released soon but admitted “there are a number of issues we are still working with Iran on, with some we are making progress and with others, no, so it’s an ongoing thing and we haven’t reached an end station”, explaining that it is a “complex” array of issues as the IAEA seeks clarity on three locations being investigated. 

However, whether the agency has really won greater oversight powers as agreed in March, is to be seen. The undeclared Marivan site near Abadeh, south of Esfahan, remains a hot topic. He said the IAEA is yet to implement the terms of the joint statement including additional monitoring capabilities for the IAEA. 

Speaking to Axios, a White House National Security Council (NSC) spokesperson downplayed the speculation of a new deal circulating in Jerusalem. “There is no US discussion of an interim deal and no discussion of sanctions relief, or closing safeguards cases," the spokesperson said, meanwhile quoting a senior European diplomat who said that the US is indeed working with the Omanis on the Iranian issue.

Keeping mum on talks, the White House NSC spokesperson deferred to ‘security concerns’ as the reason for the lack of transparency, but admitted discussions centered around regional diplomacy, "of which Iran is one aspect.”

Axios claims the Israeli government is concerned about a possible push by the Biden administration for a “freeze for freeze” interim agreement with Iran, which will be subject of discussions for Israeli minister for strategic affairs Ron Dermer and National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi who are expected to discuss these concerns during their visit to the White House tomorrow (Thursday).

Meanwhile, as diplomatic chess pieces continue to shift, the Korea Economic Daily reported on Tuesday that South Korea and the US are discussing ways to release $7 billion in Iranian funds held in South Korea, a South Korean debt for oil imports from Iran due to global sanctions.

Just like the high-profile case of British-Iranian dual-national Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, held under ransom for a British debt to Iran, it is highly likely the deal has the same premise - cash for hostages. Currently there are three dual nationals with American citizenship and two individuals with US permanent residency held by Iran on trumped-up charges of espionage.

Speaking to NPR this week, the US envoy for Iran, Robert Malley, continued to stress that diplomacy is the Biden administration’s first choice. “I think it's been proven to be the most effective way and the most sustainable way to make sure that Iran doesn't acquire a bomb,” he said, claiming to have forged “a credible diplomatic path”. 

In spite of the imbalance of attacks on the US personnel and bases in the Middle East versus retaliatory attacks carried out by the US, he still claims to also have “a credible deterrence path”. As of March, Iran had launched 83 attacks on the US in the likes of Iraq and Syria, with only four military responses, since the start of the Biden administration.

He said: “In other words, [the] president has said all options are on the table. You could imagine what that means. He has said explicitly that the military option will be on the table. It is far from the preferred option, but he will do what it takes to make sure Iran doesn't acquire a bomb. And we hope that we could resolve this through diplomatic means, and we're prepared to go down that path.”

According to the report released on Tuesday, in 2021, the population below the absolute poverty line in the country increased to 30.4%.

Based on the report, unemployment, lack of a higher education degree, having children and being a tenant are among the factors that increase poverty in the country.

The report shows that Iran's economic situation has been deteriorating long before the global sanctions hit the country's economy.

According to a report published by ILNA in January, one-third of the country’s population is now living in extreme poverty, after the number almost doubled in one year from 2020 to 2021. However, it is believed that the number could in reality be far higher. 

According to official figures released by the interior ministry, around 60 percent of the 84 million Iranians live under the relative poverty line of whom between 20 to 30 million live in "absolute poverty".

Economic failures of the regime are becoming more and more difficult to justify, even given US sanctions. "The main reason for the [economic] problems [in the past ten years] is not just the sanctions. A major part of these were caused by wrong decisions and inefficiency," Supreme leader Ali Khamenei admitted in a speech last year.

“We look at the regional security structure that is threatened by Iran - a topic that we discussed in depth,” Herzog said following his meeting with Aliyev, “and we expect to develop cooperation between us in many fields.”

Azerbaijan and Israel have been expanding bilateral relations for many years, with Herzog's visit being the latest step. Israel has had an embassy in Baku since 1992 and in March, Azerbaijan opened its own in Tel Aviv.

“Iran is a destabilizing influence in the region that is working continuously to act against Israel and against the alliance of peace and security that is developing in the region, and I will certainly discuss this,” said the Israeli president.

Herzog will participate in a ceremony celebrating Israel's 75th birthday along with the local Jewish community on Wednesday.

Oil and gas rich Azerbaijan gets 69% of its military weapons from Israel, and Israel imports 40% of its oil from the Caucasian state which shares a border with Iran.

It has been a tense few months between Tehran and Baku. Iran angrily reacted to Azerbaijan’s opening an embassy in Tel Aviv in March, accusing it of aiding Israel in its operations against the regime, in addition to relations souring following an armed attack on Azerbaijan’s embassy in Tehran in January. Iran has also carried out military drills over the border in a bid to intimidate its neighbor. 

The "Reward for Justice" program affiliated with the US State Department said in a statement on Tuesday that the reward will be given for information leading to the disruption of the financial mechanisms of Hezbollah.

“Muhammad Ja’far Qasir, also known as Shaykh Salah and Hossein Gholi, is a key Hezbollah financier, who provides funding for Hezbollah operations through a number of illegal smuggling and procurement activities and other criminal enterprises,” read the statement.

In addition to funding Hezbollah's activities, Qasir channels funds from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF).

It is through him that the IRGC-QF is able to hide its involvement in the sale of oil and other extractives, which is a crucial source of revenue for Hezbollah, the IRGC-QF, the brutal regime of Bashar al-Assad, and others.

Qasir leads Hezbollah’s Unit 108, which coordinates closely with the IRGC-QF to facilitate the transfer of weapons, technology, and other support from Syria to Lebanon.

Qasir was designated a Specially Designated Global Terrorist by the US Department of Treasury in May 2018.

All Qasir's properties and interests under US jurisdiction are blocked as a result of this designation, and US citizens are prohibited from engaging in business with Qasir.

Washington has designated Hezbollah as a foreign terrorist organization, which means providing material support or resources to it is illegal.

The UAE move roughly corresponds with Saudi Arabia’s decision in early March to restore diplomatic relations with Iran, which has been much discussed as a shift in Riyadh’s regional policies. The deal was brokered by China which further highlighted a weakening of the decades-long reliance on the United States by Persian Gulf Arab oil producers.

"As a result of our ongoing evaluation of effective security cooperation with all partners, two months ago, the UAE withdrew its participation in the Combined Maritime Forces," the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement carried by state news agency WAM.

The Combined Maritime Forces is a 34-nation task force, headquartered at the US naval base in Bahrain, working on security, counterterrorism and counter-piracy in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf areas. But in fact, the US and Israel were trying to forge a regional coalition to contain Iran, including an air defense network.

The region contains some of the world's most important shipping routes where, since 2019, suspected Iranian attacks began against oil tankers amid tensions with the United States. The Obama, Trump and Biden administrations chose not to retaliate against Iranian naval provocations over the years or show a convincing military deterrent response.

Former President Donald Trump was said to have blinked when suspected Iranian drones and missiles hit Saudi oil facilities in September 2019, inflicting heavy damage. Reports at the time said that Trump changed his mind about a military response at the last minute.

The statement said the UAE was committed to dialogue and diplomatic engagement to advance regional security and stability, and that it was committed to ensuring navigation safety in its seas in accordance with international law.

However, five weeks ago, Iran seized two tankers within a week in Gulf waters near the Strait of Hormuz. The second tanker, the Niovi, had been travelling from Dubai toward the UAE's Fujairah port.

The UAE also said that a report by the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday which, citing US and Gulf sources, said the UAE was frustrated by the lack of US response to the recent tanker seizures, was a "mischaracterization" of conversations between the two countries.

However, the UAE decision to leave the maritime coalition and speak about “diplomatic engagement” - possibly referring to Iran - to enhance its security, shows that the WSJ report was not off the mark.

The UAE announcement will be seen in Tehran as a triumph, since the Iranian regime has proclaimed the goal of expelling the United States from the region to be at the top of its agenda.

The White House will face more domestic criticism by Republicans, who have already charged that the administration's flirtations with Iran to revive the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal, has driven the Saudis to seek alternative security arrangements.

Iran, however, might press its luck too hard. If Tehran was aware of the UAE decision, its new seizure of vessels in the Persian Gulf might demonstrate to the Emiratis that Tehran will not be satisfied with a more neutral UAE position and will use military force to further intimidate regional countries.

With reporting by Reuters