Sociologists Say Many Iranians Lost Hope, Facing Perpetual Crises
A Sociologist says that Iranian society is suffering from a deep sense of injustice, inequality, being entangled in a political impasse and worried about the future.
A Sociologist says that Iranian society is suffering from a deep sense of injustice, inequality, being entangled in a political impasse and worried about the future.
Political bottlenecks and crises are causing troubles for everyone, Hadi Khaniki told Etemad Online Thursday. But all this can hopefully lead to some kind of renovation and rejuvenation, he added. "In other words, there is hope in some kind of transformation."
Meanwhile, another prominent Iranian sociologist, Mohammad Fazeli, says "man needs to understand plurality in order to create hope." Referring to a turbulent period since September, he said, "As new dimensions in the relations between the government and the people became evident during the past year, Iran experienced a lot of days full of hope and despair."
In a sense, said Fazeli, Iranians were looking for their lost rights during the 2022 protests. He explained that society continues to live on a series of fault lines which reinforce each other. There is an economic fault line which has been activated because of various sanctions imposed on Iran. Citizens experienced deep economic problems in the 2010s with the economic growth flat, amid rising inflation.
At the same time, there has also been a social fault line. Between 84 to 86 percent of Iranians were born during the years after the 1979 Islamic revolution. They have been living with a different value system. In the meantime, new values have emerged, and many Iranians believe in those new values.
Fazeli was referring to the new generation rejecting the clerical regime’s interference in their personal lives, and their higher awareness of conditions in other countries.
Still at the same time, there is another fault line that has emerged as a result of the government's inefficiency, which has created a host of unresolved problems the population has to deal with.
The people see that the problems with environment, water, transportation, brain drain and immigration, rising inflation and so on have never been solved. At the same time, people are concerned about Iran’s rising tensions with the world.
“This is a society that lives with the tension of an uncertain future which could potentially lead to a popular revolt. Even if you failed to see this in the 2000's, you must have seen and felt it during the crises of mid 2010s. If not, you could not miss it during the protests since 2018. In that year, I called the Iranian society "a society that has lost everything it used to have," Fazeli said.
One person lost his hope, another one lost his job or business, yet another one lost the hope for living in a better world while others felt they have lost the lifestyle they were used to. Every one of them represented a large part of the Iranian society.
Even the religious people thought they lost something when they saw that commitment to religious values have declined.
Fazeli reiterated that the critical situation in Iran is caused by a series of crises as they have all converged at the same time and at the same point. He explained that in every society there are satisfied people and those who are disenchanted. But when dissidents dramatically outnumber those who are happy, then a serious political crisis will emerge.
"I saw a research paper recently in which some 24 percent of the population said their financial situation had improved during the past two years, more than 60 percent said their situation has worsened and a small number said there has been no difference for them. When the number of those who are dissatisfied is three times more, there is trouble on the horizon.
Referring to the government’s inability to deal with multiple crises he said, "If you are not improving the situation, you cannot tell the people that they have to tolerate it. The people might listen to you only if you are prepared to give something to them. And let us note that their threshold of tolerance now is extremely low."
The director general of social insurance in Iran’s Ministry of Labor, Sajjad Badamforoush, said: “Even if we sell two to three million barrels of oil with sanctions removed, we still cannot solve the pensioners' issues."
Although most observers in Iran took the director's statement with a pinch of salt as typical Iranian exaggeration, yet, what he said shed light on the fact that the country's Pension Fund, once one of the richest institutions in Iran is on the verge of bankruptcy because of corruption and mismanagement.
Iran’s Social Security Organization is a public institution that provides health insurance, pension and unemployment benefits to its members. They range from workers and government employees to self-employed individuals. More than half the population receive some type of benefit from the organization.
The official said that not only the Pension Fund is unable to pay the pensioners, it also does not have enough resources to cover its debts to domestic and foreign creditors.
Iranian economist Ahmad Maydari noted that the idea of selling islands to make up for the Pension Fund's deficits comes as a movie based on a true story that took place in Greece. This, he said cannot happen Iran. Instead, he suggested that the government needs to change the laws that allow ad hoc withdrawals from the fund.
Lawmaker Mohsen Pirhadi has said that 15 percent of this year's budget will be spent on the repayment of loans taken by the Pension Fund.
A pessimistic report in Rouydad24 website, however, pointed out that the crisis concerning the Pension Fund will paralyze Iran and will plunge its economy into a new crisis in less than two decades.
A former chief of the Pension Fund, Mahmoud Eslamian says the problem is the result of successive governments failing to pay social security premiums to the fund for tens of millions of people.
What the presidential administrations have done with the massive amount of money is not clear. One observer likened the problem to a clock bomb that will surprise everyone when it is detonated.
A former vice-president under President Hassan Rouhani said 8 years ago that the problem of the Pension Fund is one Iran's three major looming crises along with water shortage and damage to the environment.
However, most officials who speak about the problem ignore corruption and mismanagement as the underlying reason for waste and embezzlement of financial resources.
One thing which is clear, political appointees, especially since the presidency of populist Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, invested funds in Iran’s state-controlled unprofitable companies managed by cronies, with a high potential of corruption.
Economist Mohammad Khoshchehreh accused Iranian officials for delaying the crisis rather than solving it for decades. "They did not solve a small problem and instead simply watched it as it grew into a major crisis," said Khoshchehreh, adding that it is now turning into a super crisis. The economist pointed out that solving this crisis needs efficient strategic management.
A quick temporary solution is increasing the age of retirement, he said, noting like many others that some Iranians retire even between the ages of 40 and 50 and that adds more burden on the Pension Fund.
Labor market specialist Hamid haji Esmaili got closer to the main problem and told Khabar Online that political appointees are using the Pension Fund as their personal backyard, referring to past scandals about government officials channelling funds to the wrong direction for personal or political gain. This crisis, he warned, will ruin all of the country's economic structures.
Meanwhile, Haji Esmaili observed that part of the current crisis would have not happened if the government was not facing a budget deficit and did not have to put its fingers in the pensioners' pockets. He regretted that "Unfortunately, like its predecessors, the current government has no plans whatsoever to tackle the problem."