Iran International
The decline of American and “Zionist power” has begun, military advisor to Iran’s ruler Ali Khamenei said Sunday, following a Chinese brokered deal with Saudis.
General Yahya Rahim Safavi was echoing sentiment expressed by all forces in Iran who are considered “Principlist” or loyal to Khamenei, who for years has espoused a policy of siding with China and Russia against the United States.
China appeared to be the power that brokered a deal between Tehran and Riyadh to restore diplomatic relations after seven years of open animosity and rivalry. One Iranian commentator said Sunday that the agreement signed in Beijing was not really a bilateral deal, but a tripartite agreement between Iran, China and Saudi Arabia.
In fact, Tehran and Riyadh had been negotiating since 2021 in Baghdad, with Iraqi mediation and could have restored relations without Beijing’s mediation. Former Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafal al-Kadhimi in an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat published Sunday, says that most of the talks took place in Baghdad.
At this point we do not know what brought China into the picture, except assuming that either Iran or Saudi Arabia insisted on it. If the demand came from the Saudis, it could mean one thing, showing displeasure with the Biden administration, which is left picking up the pieces.
Khamenei’s advisor Safavi in his remarks did not repeat the typical rhetoric of war and confrontation, advising that Iran and Saudi Arabia should exhibit rationality for the sake of West Asia. He said that restoration of bilateral ties was not against any regional countries. But he quickly added that it is natural for the United States to be worried and try to disrupt it.
Speculations abound in Iranian media about the potential dividends of peace with Saudi Arabia. Some see it as an Iranian victory to potentially disrupt a possible Saudi peace deal with Israel. Others speak of economic benefits for the Islamic Republic, going as far as claiming that Iran, Saudi Arabia and Russia can create a powerful oil cartel with Chinese backing and put the West on the defensive.
Safavi in his remarks also mentioned a similar outlook. “Iran should regard the West’s entanglement in Ukraine and the Taiwan tensions as an opportunity and based on shared interests with Russia and China move ahead with a clear strategy, given US threats against all three countries.”
The quick face-about of Iran hardliners and Khamenei loyalists regarding Saudi Arabia is being highlighted by their rivals, the reformists, who point out that there was no need to attack the Saudi embassy in Tehran in January 2016 and create tensions for seven years.
They argue that hardliners were calling for the destruction of the Saudi monarchy and equating the country with “Zionists”, calling it a US puppet. Meanwhile, Tehran spent tens of billions of dollars to finance the war in Yemen against Riyadh and provoked the ire of Persian Gulf Arab states.
Now, facing more international isolation and a broken economy, the Khamenei camp is suddenly praising friendship with Riyadh, something they could have done all along.
Safavi insisted that the agreement with Saudi Arabia was “a political earthquake” and the end of “American hegemony in the region”. We this deal, the “post-American era starts in the Persian Gulf region.”
He went on to say that “The Chinese are determined to become the top global economy by 2030 and this agreement brokered by the Chinese is the second big blow by China against America.”
Although he did not elaborate on his argument that Iran’s foreign policy is an outcome of its internal politics, it was obvious that as a member of the former centrist government he was targeting hardliners, who have obstructed talks with the West.
Speaking at a conference on "the protests and media," which was sponsored by the Iranian Society of Cultural and Communication Studies this week, Rabiei reiterated the position of more moderate regime insiders, blaming diaspora Iranians for “misrepresenting” the message of protests in Iran while also attacking hardliners for refusing to pave the way for public discussion that can lead to a new form of policymaking in Iran.
"Physically, all movements might recede one day, but the people's mentality will not change,” Rabiei said.
Hadi Khaniki, the Society's chairman, said that "protesting is part of the nature of the Iranian society, but protests can have different forms. Institutions like ours should go to the lower depths of social issues and offer solutions when politicians seem to have deviated from the right course or have taken hasty measures. Critical views can get the Iranian society a step forward. "
Khaniki said that everyone agrees the protest movement in Iran has been widespread and that no other issue in Iran has attracted so much attention. He added that the protest movement has further politicized the Iranian society and even those who were reluctant to get involved in political discussions have become politically active. The media cannot remain indifferent to such a change, he said.
Khaniki argued that because of the weakness of civil institutions, the Iranian society's behavior often remains unknown or unpredictable. An issue such as the gas attacks on girls' schools grabs people's attention and gives rise to many concerns. Everybody sympathizes with the students and their parents, but it is not clear where the media should stand in a such a situation.
In fact, some media have reacted responsibly to the issue. Centrist daily Ham Mihan wrote in a commentary March 7, that despite the widespread attacks, "No particular medical treatment has been given to affected schoolchildren other than administering tranquilizers. There has been no chemical research about the nature of the gas used to poison the students. And all of that are signs of a deep-rooted mismanagement."
Ham Mihan observed that the absence of the right methodology to detect the truth, is indicative of inefficiency, lack of people's trust in the government, and lack of independent media that would reflect the truth.
Meanwhile, sociologist Taghi Azad Armaki said at the conference: "The essential problems of the Iranian society is one of lifestyle. Iranians wish to remain Iranian while as Mr. Rabiei said, there is a group in Iran that does not want Iranians to remain Iranian."
He said Iranians simply want to live, but the government and its pressure groups will do everything to prevent that. While the people think in terms of a cultural understanding of Iran, the government only recognizes its own political understanding of life in this country.
He said: Iranians are a nation that is constantly changing, but this change is non-violent. In the same way, Iranians have even changed Islam thanks to their adaptability and innovation. We are a nation that attaches importance to culture. We are a nation that wishes to bring about reforms. But those who have the wrong understanding of culture do not allow us to live.
As an example, Armaki pointed out the Iranian government's enmity with the middle class. "What has the middle class done that the government treats it as an enemy? The problem is a war between two cultures: The culture of life and the culture of totalitarianism."
Diplomatic relations between Tehran and Riyadh had been severed since January 2016 when pro-government vigilante groups attacked the Saudi embassy in Tehran and the consulate in Mashhad. Since then, many moderate state officials and media commentators were accusing the hardliners who are currently in control of the government of being behind the attacks.
Welcoming the idea of resumption of ties between the two neighbors, reformist politician Mohammad-Reza Javadi-Hesar told Etemad newspaper in Tehran on Saturday, that Iran has no way out of its current crises other than détente. He added that "Iran should welcome direct talks with the United States and Saudi Arabia."
Borrowing the expression West Asia (rather than Middle East) from Supreme Leader Khamenei, Javadi-Hesar said: "We in West Asia are holding talks withEast Asia. What is wrong with also holding talks with the power West of Europe" meaning the United States.
Sitting at the negotiating table with the United States and Saudi Arabia will prove that problems are not as big as we assumed them to be, he said. If the current Iranian government which has not been able to solve the country's economic problems does this, they can at least take credit for melting the ice of a 40-year-long impasse in Iran's foreign relations, Javadi-Hesar added.
Meanwhile, former diplomat Ghasem Mohebali, criticized Iran's Looking East policy and said in an interview with Entekhab website that "Our economic problem is the result of our relations with Europe and the United States, not our relations with China and Saudi Arabia!" Mohebali, who was referring to Western sanctions, further stressed that Tehran should strive to solve its problems with Washington. He added: "Iran cannot have permanent normal ties with any country without solving its problems with the United States."
Nonetheless, Mohebali said that "the recent agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia gives us reasons to be optimistic about other positive developments as a result of returning to diplomacy.”
In another development, Iran's former Foreign Minister and Nuclear Chief Ali Akbar Salehi also welcomed the agreement between Riyadh and Tehran, and said in an interview with Entekhab: "The agreement with Saudi Arabia was a relatively timely event that can take us out of a deadlock." However, he noted that "this could have taken place earlier and without the intervention of mediators. In that case we would have owed nothing to no one." Salehi further hoped that both sides will remain committed to the agreement.
The agreement over the idea of resuming ties between Riyadh and Tehran has also led to other discussions on social media. Gholamreza Nouriala the editor of proreform Naghd-e Hal newspaper, harshly criticized the hardline editor of Kayhan newspaper who had called relations with Saudi Arabia "a stigma for the Islamic Iran" in 2016 after the attack on the Saudi embassy. However, in its Saturday edition, Kayhan's editor praised the resumption of ties as a “hard blow to the United States and Israel.” Nouriala called Shariatmadari a hypocrite and readers who commented on his tweet, angrily lashed out at Shariamadari.
Several other social media users posted pictures of Ali Foroughi who led the vigilante groups during the attack on Saudi diplomatic buildings in 2016 and was subsequently appointed as the manager of Channel 3 of Iran's state television which operates under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. One user wrote that he got a big job for leading the arsonists and will once again get a bigger job for reflecting president Raisi's "big diplomatic victor."
Tens of other Twitter users also reminded that Majles Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf was also implicated for his role in the attack after one of the attack organizers, Hassan Kordmihan was revealed to be the chairman of his presidential election headquarters in 2017. On Friday, Ghalibaf praised the resumption of ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran as an important step to enhance the region's security.
The group, which calls itself the Alliance for Democracy and Freedom in Iran, announced its existence in a February event at Georgetown University's Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS) -- titled ‘The Future of Iran’s Democracy Movement.'
Exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi, Nobel peace prize laureate Shirin Ebadi and Canada-based activist Hamed Esmaeilion, as well as US-based author, journalist and women’s rights activist Masih Alinejad, actress and activist Nazanin Boniadi and Secretary General of Komala Iranian Kurdish party Abdullah Mohtadi had said that they would release the charter that would lay the foundations for political representation of the aspirations of protesters in Iran and gain support for isolating the Islamic Republic.
The document is also called the Mahsa Charter in reference to “the murder of Mahsa (Jina) Amini and the beginning of the Woman, Life, Freedom revolution,” which has seen the people of Iran continuing to fight for freedom “to break the chains of injustice, discrimination and tyranny.”
Emphasizing that the way to building a free and democratic Iran is to overcome the Islamic Republic regime, they said, “Reaching this ultimate goal necessitates the three elements of unison, organization and relentless continuity in activism.”
They said the charter relies initially on activities outside of the country, underlining that the isolation of the Islamic government internationally is a first and necessary step for a democratic change.
The charter calls for international pressure on the Islamic Republic to halt all death sentences and to immediately release all political prisoners without condition; expulsion of the regime’s ambassadors and all its dependents by democratic governments and acknowledging the alliance of opposition figures as well as their charter; and facilitating any means necessary to aid the people of Iran.
“Subsequent actions will take place with the participation of activists inside Iran to focus on fair transitional justice, the formation of a council for the transition of power, and the means by which power is transferred to a secular, democratic government,” reads the charter, adding that “The Alliance will introduce actionable initiatives using democratic methods to be implemented at the earliest opportunity in order to bring to fruition the civil action struggles of the people of Iran.”
The members of the alliance have repeatedly said that anyone who accepts the core values of the group is welcome to join them, but until now there had not been a clear explanation for their main values. They enumerated 17 common values for a democratic Iran, noting that the form of the future government will be a secular-democratic system determined through a referendum. “All political and official members of the state shall be elected through a free and democratic election process whereby citizens of all beliefs, ethnicities, gender and sexual orientation be afforded dignity and equal rights before the law.”
The need to maintain the territorial integrity of Iran while accepting diversity in language, ethnicity, religion and culture; and to decentralize power by deferring financial, bureaucratic and policy making affairs to elected provincial, city, and regional administrations is also among the values.
The charter also talks about the formation of an independent organization to supervise elections and the acceptance of domestic and international monitoring of elections, which would result in “a new national constitution through an inclusive and transparent process.” “The new constitution shall adhere to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights in its entirety.”
The charter also mentions the abolition of the death penalty and any corporal punishment and enacting the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women as well as the establishment of an independent judicial system in accordance with international standards. It calls for Justice for all victims of the Islamic Republic through fact finding commissions under the auspices of fair and independent courts including the right to independent legal representation.
One of main points of the charter is the abolition of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp – or the IRGC -- and all of its subsidiaries. “The possibility to integrate IRGC elements into other armed forces such as the army may only be possible in the absence of involvement in crimes and based on necessary qualifications,” it said, adding that “The military shall only be responsible to defend the territorial integrity of the country.”
It also called for “cooperation and peaceful relations with all countries in the world, and to cease all interference in the affairs of other countries, and to join the International Criminal Court.” Joining the International Convention on Nuclear Safety and the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) were key values in the charter.
“To overcome the Islamic Republic’s tyranny, all Iranians who are committed to freedom must unite. The courage of the people of Iran and their persistent fight for freedom shall be the bright beacon of hope for our future. Let us stand united in the creation of a free tomorrow," the charter concluded.